JD-TWINS

Seems like a cheap depth move. No conspiracy theory that everyone else is going to be out for extended period. Good athlete that can play all 3 OF positions if we are really desperate at some point. Good organizational move.

Completely agree! Appears he got in really good shape - bummer he can’t throw. Last year, even if we wanted to try and play Miranda at 3B, with a good chunk of the roster hurt, we needed to plug him at 1B or DH just to start 9 guys. Urshella was solid at 3B both offensively & defensively. Farmer costs 1/2 of Urshella & is a former everyday SS & comfortable at 2B & 3B. Good exchange in the pursuit of positional depth! Miranda’s arm is potentially just a Spring Training strain but he needs to heal soon. If Kirilof is healthy & if Miranda can’t throw effectively, the new 3B options will push him to DH & 1B platoons. If Lee/Lewis take over 3B in ‘24, Miranda has a slim future as a RH bat in our line-up. On paper, Larnach - Kirilof - Gordon - Walner - Julien all play ahead of him (as well as Buxton 30-40 games) at DH v. RH pitching (75% of games). Seems like there should always be room for a good bat on the roster - thought that about Luis A. as well.

Seems Gallo would be short-term LH bat solution at 1B if Kirilof isn’t ready April 1. No question. LH bat solution if Kirilof is washed for months, would be to get Gordon up to speed. Fielding balls isn’t an issue - footwork around the base would take a month or more while Gallo holds down the position for 6-8 weeks against RH pitching. At some point is leaving Gallo at 1B OK & Gordon in LF OK…….less risky? Obviously, hope Kirilof is up with Big Club very soon!

I get the “maybes” & “what ifs” for conversation sake. However, if Nick Gordon can’t get over an ankle sprain in another 10 days, he has a more serious injury. Is Miranda throwing at all? He is my concern……everyone has braced for Kirilof not being able to play again this year but Miranda was penciled in for 100 games at 3B - 35 games between DH & 1B……I get he can DH or even play 1B for a month but he can’t force LH bats out of the line-up v. RH pitching at either of these spots! Picked up Solano to play 1B & DH v. LH pitching.

Conservative guess, 15-13……..don’t think we realize our advantage in starter depth until maybe June. Really think we’ll routinely pick up W’s with our 3-4-5 guys vs. other team’s back end starters!

Kirilof has to be the most concerning guy! Big potential - poor health history - essentially at the final step in potentially making it or not. If he can play daily, the team’s success is looking good. Gallo is Kirilof’s LH hitting replacement at 1B. This gets Gordon/Larnach into LF…..not a terrible thing. Gordon & Taylor can cover CF if Buxton goes down. Solano/Farmer/Lee can cover for Miranda at 3B if arm issues linger.

Taylor is solid v. 25% of the games when there’s a lefty starter…….pinch hitter - pinch runner - late inning Defense. A true back up!;

Jeffers seems like a good depth catcher to me at this point. ALL teams play at least 2 guys at Catcher……..few play more than 70%, right? The 2nd guy on 30 teams can’t be significantly better than Jeffers. Vazquez is a good #1 guy with a better than decent bat…….Jeffers is developing - hopefully, Vázquez rubs off on him.

Lee & Julien need a couple months at AAA to get acclimated to another level before considering for Big Club. Need to at least start year in St. Paul so we don’t burn a year of control going forward. Larnach needs to prove health over some time period more than a couple weeks……..same with Kirilof…….Solano signing is another smart depth move. The 2 young guys are more appealing but they have to be available! Walner needs to work on D, other than arm, and strike out about 10% less than historically. Julian, while showing great upside, needs to spend a couple months in AAA to be sure he’s good to go at next level. Same with Lee. As stated above, Julian & Lee lose year of control if on Opening Day roster. Let’s wait at least a few weeks.

Larnach has real potential……going to struggle to make 26 man roster since the Solano signing! Am assuming all are healthy. My line-ups are based on RH or LH opposing pitcher since we will swing our starters big time: v. LH pitching v. RH pitching Taylor - CF Gordon - DH Buxton - DH Buxton - CF Correa - SS Correa - SS Miranda - 1B. Polanco - 2B Farmer - 3B Kirilof - 1B Jeffers - C Vázquez - C Gallo - LF. Gallo - LF Solano - 2B. Miranda - 3B Kepler - RF. Kepler - RF If Kirilof & Larnach are HEALTHY, I like Larnach better than Solano, but w/o options, Solano needs to be rostered so Larnach starts in St. Paul.

Ray gets $23M/year over life of contract……,he pitched a fair amount of innings and stayed healthy……..give ya that & there is value in that!………….12-12 with a 3.71 ERA is not an ACE. With the addition of Castillo at the break last year, it may have dropped Ray to being Seattle’s 5th best starter. Seriously.

He’s at $14.5 this year I believe and was pissed because the club wouldn’t pay another $300K - they built an argument against his recent year’s performance……..gotta think his arbitration number is no more than $20M in ‘24. Whatever, pay him something a bit higher than the expectation to help the relationship.

If we had a proven - solid Pen, I could care less about signing an ACE. We do have a solid starting Staff now w/o an “ace” & if we had 5 good/reliable relievers for playoffs I’d be good. Jax - Duran - Thielbar …….. Moran ………we now have 4 guys in our Pen we can rely on but the others are all suspect regarding consistency or health. I think, for ‘23, we should drop minor league starters into Pen roles with Big Club. We can drop one of the starters to relief in play-offs.

Didn’t work because he hurt his knee and needed a procedure & rest. Can’t do that in May if you’re still hitting the baseball well. He played off & on while continuing to help the offense………didn’t work in ‘22 because he was injured. He played 2nd most games in a season last year. Only played over a hundred games once! ‘22 wasn’t his first year being hurt. Need to try & load manage from the jump this year to TRY and extend his health and get more at bats. “Putting him out there until he’s hurt…….” hasn’t been real positive historically.

Agreed - your New Chart looks about as close as one could come! Larnach needs to play & hit .500 this spring to even get a thought for opening day - still don’t see it w/o an injury to an outfielder.

Exactly, 80 games in CF v. RH pitching (Taylor starts 40 games v. LH pitching) - 50 games at DH - 32 games sitting. 50% - 30% - 20%……80% of the games with him hitting is a way better % than his entire career! He played 140 games one season…..92 games is his 2nd highest total after 7 seasons. Agreed on his attitude about DHing……never going to get 500 AB’s plus playing CF and getting his knee drained every 3 weeks. Gordon picks up the other 40 starts in CF v. RH pitching.

Glad to hear positives on Larnach & Kirilof…..neither has the real positive history to bet on, but I’ll keep my chin up. Miranda playing 1B instead of Kirilof v. LH pitching makes sense……sort of neutralizes Solano’s value though……..I don’t see Miranda DHing v. RH pitching in front of Larnach - Gallo - Gordon……nor playing 1B in front of Kirilof -Gallo. Short-term arm issue hopefully, if not, Miranda’s value in ‘23 isn’t great.

We looked really deep on February 20th but now are wondering about 26 man roster in 3 weeks. Miranda - Arm Gordon - Ankle Pagan - still Pagan Larnach - still hurt Kirilof - still hurt Buxton & Polanco - recovering Martin - toasted elbow Henriquez - elbow/arm issues 9 guys off top of my head - surely I missed someone……..at least 6 of these guys are slated to be on the 26 man roster for sure. Scary……hopefully, Miranda & Gordon are OK in 10-15 days. Buxton - Polanco in a game someday soon would be encouraging! PAPER ROSTER doesn’t get any W’s.

Robbie Ray could be one of worst FA signings ever - he may be their 5th starter……….Rodon signed for $27/yr……Tallion signed for $17/yr…….Wacha can get $24-$30 over 4 years…….Bassitt signed for 3 yrs at $21M/yr. It’s $ and years weighed together. I think we extend Burnes an extra $6 million over his potential arbitration high in ‘24 as a good faith move. Then $30M/yr for 3 additional years. That’s a good offer relative to any signings of ‘22-‘23.

………back to Burnes & $/contract details……if we could get him this summer at the deadline, offer him over arbitration $ for ‘24, around $24M & then offer $30M for 3 additional years. I can’t believe he would risk pitching all of ‘24 for arbitration $ of around $18M without any compensation guarantee past ‘24 & not take the additional $96M we would be offering for 3 more years and a signature by end of calendar ‘23. Who would we trade? I think a starter with control - Ober…….an OF prospect - Walner…….an IF prospect - Martin…….just saw Martin has been shutdown with a UCL elbow injury. Bummer! Who else is worth moving to get Brewer’s attention?

Where do you get 5 years? I don’t keep detailed track of the Free Agent signings but I don’t recall many guys signing for more than 3 years as pitchers. He’s making $14 this year I think & one more year of control. If we could get him by August 1 and bump him to $22 (we’ll above arbitration) in ‘24 & give him $30 in ‘25 & ‘26 it seems pretty fair to him! If he needs 5 years & that’s the market - that’s what we need to do for an Ace. Maybe it’s $26M/yr for 5 years……we get a discount on ‘24 & actually have him for 6 years. Risky but an Ace. Gotta act if we truly want an Ace.

Sure every other organization is hoping for good health & if they don’t get it they will not be able to compete. You think the Yankees aren’t bothered by Rodon’s health - you think the Angels just shrug every time Trout can’t play….their All-star 3rd baseman hasn’t played 100 games since they signed him 2-3 years ago. Can only have so much built in depth that’s major league ready! We have a half dozen prospects that many want to see play this year but there’s no roster room in theory……maybe there will be. Hope not! Polanco - Buxton I gotta think are ready and will play 8-10 games prior to season’s start. It would be nice to get some confirmation from team. Kirilof seems behind an April 1 start with Big Club …….he needs reps coming off surgery and he’s not getting them. Miranda’s shoulder may linger? Seems Farmer will drop in as starter there if needed. May see Lee sooner than expected! Larnach - lower body injury????? Gordon’s ankle will be fine by the end of the month. Please keep him out of the infield. He may work into some time at 1B through the year if Kirilof is a wash? Henriquez is down for a month at this time of the year with elbow (behind elbow) soreness. Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Lopez - Ryan all have thrown and all have been soreness free ……keeping fingers crossed!! Pagan - grand slam…….seems to be a sign…..DFA’d by April 20th!

Burnes would be a good pick-up! Would anchor the Staff. He has ‘24 left under control. Extend him 2 years right away for around $30M/yr……extend Lopez this year, if he’s solid, for 2 more years. Extend Mahle if he throws well for 3 years. Burnes - $30M ……Mahle - $21M……Lopez - $20M………Varland & Paddack & Headrick & SWR & etc. from the Farm. We’d be set, on paper, through ‘26! Already spending $16M between Mahle & Lopez. We get back $21 M between Gray & Maeda leaving………Taylor, Kepler, Polanco, Solano, & Gallo will probably all be gone after ‘23 getting us back $36M……..that’s $73M to cover the 3 pitchers above! Trade Ober - Walner - Martin at the Break or shortly after, for Burnes.

Gordon played 98 games in OF last year - 33 of them in CF. More than an experiment. Hit .272 with 9 HR & 28 doubles in 405 AB’s………high .700’s OPS v. RH pitching …….needs to play CF v. RH pitching when Buxton can’t play ……40 starts. Should play LF another 80 starts v. RH pitching. Can DH some…..get him 525 AB’s v. RH pitching!! We have 3 guys behind him on Farm that are SS and one guy that’s a 2B………why are we forcing him into that role? Gallo - Kepler - Taylor are all gone after ‘23…..why would we not just leave him in OF for our future? Guys get hurt - not worried about a sprained ankle in Spring Training but do wonder about the logic?

Health is a gamble for any pro sports team…. nothing special here with the Twins needing better health (significantly) than in ‘22. Polanco was starting All-Star in ‘21…..he was banged up in ‘22 and only played 65% of the season. Christian Vázquez is as solid as they come…..granted, due to lack of quickness & service time, Miranda might be considered average or just below at 3rd. Don’t see the weaknesses you point out up the middle. Vazquez - Polanco - CC - Buxton are a really strong group up the middle v. anyone else in baseball.