GoMNTwins

Paddack is the Rashaad Penny of baseball.

There is no question that the Twins prioritized adding starting pitching this offseason. The trade adds a young, team-controlled, backend-of-the-rotation starting pitcher These two lines say everything about this off-season and the cross purpose of seeking out team control over front-of-the-rotation starting pitching.

Let's not forget the added benefit of looking like when he's not pitching he wears a fleur-de-lis and carries an epee.

Let's not forget Mike Lamb, Tony Bautista, Jeff Cirillo. That last one might be the most baseball guy name of them all.

I'm trying really hard to be optimistic about this team, and I can see where they did make improvements. I like the Sonny Gray deal a lot, but it feels incomplete with him as the only rotation piece that isn't a rookie or a retread. This becomes especially true if he is starting Game 1 of a playoff series, and the next day is one of the rookies...where have we seen this before? We've seen what they do at the trade deadline when they are playoff bound, and it is not to add impact pitching. Why should we expect them to add someone like Montas at the deadline this year? I think the Correa deal is great, but I also think that it was a gift from Scott Boras that bailed them out of a potentially very tight spot. If they had not landed Correa, it would have come down to whether or not Story signed with them. From what I understand the Twins were offering less money and years than other teams, but he would have been able to play shortstop, which he preferred. If there is no Correa parachuted in, and they don't sign Story, then what? We've seen them make one trade and there's no reason for me to think that they would have gone after an impact shortstop other than Story. No Correa means they're rushing Lewis or signing a glove first shortstop that hits at the bottom of the order. The bullpen in my mind is fine, the addition of Duran I think provides what they needed, and bullpens are difficult to predict and mercurial by nature. It would have been great to see a little bit more brought in from outside than a guy who throws 87 mph with a funky delivery, but otherwise it didn't need quite that much attention. The rotation is worse this year than it was last year on paper. Gray basically cancels out the loss of Berrios, and after that we have four serious question marks. At least last year we had a front three of known commodities before getting to the fliers. This year we are not only asking rookies to step up at the beginning of the season, we are rounding out the rotation with a veteran who hasn't been healthy in two years, and another who has never been particularly good. None of these four have any kind of contingency in place if they are injured/unplayable either, so we're looking at the very real possibility of a four man rotation and a bullpen day, depending on how Winder does right away. Speaking of Winder, that's where I try to find optimism. I think that the future is bright for the pitching staff, and I understand not wanting to sign anyone to deals that may block the path for some of the young prospects. What gives me pause, though, is the fact that the pitching pipeline is a couple of years out, but they have a very good lineup on offense right now. This looks an awful lot like a team that will regress on offense as the pitching begins to take shape, meaning a perpetuation of this good-enough-to-make-the-regular-season-interesting business. My grade is a C, because it feels like everything happened in spite of the FO not having a plan and just kinda winging it. I said I'm trying really hard to be optimistic, and I will watch (and by that I mean listen because Bally sucks) and hope for the best. I can see how this could go well, and I can see how it could go badly. I'm hoping for the former.

While calling him a depth pitcher is accurate, in this particular case the word depth is completely false. Depth implies that you already had at least the minimum of 5 in a 5 man rotation.

It seems to me that the signing of Chris Archer itself is not risky, it's one year and very low cost. What is risky, though, is going into an ostensibly competetive season with a rotation that is built out of reclamation projects and unproven rookies. The write-up by Do-Hyoung Park goes as far as to say that Archer fills the last hole in the rotation. Whether or not you like this signing I think we can all agree that this is another back end addition, and they still don't have a front end, therefore this rotation still has a glaring hole. I hope I'm wrong and that the rookies can step up and be very good, or that the reclamation projects can succeed, or that there is someone else coming. The way this rotation stands right now I can see another 3 games sweep in October if they make it that far.

If this was an attractive arm to them, they could have just signed Stroman and kept a prospect. If he's good, he's gone in two years. That's best case scenario.

Let's not forget two things: One is that the offense is good now, and there's a very good chance that the pitching staff will develop around the time that the offense starts to decline. I know there is a lot of upcoming talent on the offensive side, but we know what we have now, we have no certainty of what is to come. We could have used free agency as a way to preserve the competitive window that has been open for a few years now without leveraging future prospects. We really could have had it both ways, by winning now while also keeping the future in tact. The second is that big additions like a front-end SP or a Trevor Story level SS would most likely be part of the present, and the future. If we sign Story or Correa (I know) to a long term deal they are part of the future and solidify a lineup both now and when the core shifts to the prospects. This would have been a really good reason for a #1 or #2 starter to anchor a rotation that is still in development, like the Tigers did by signing Rodriguez, or the Mariners signing Ray. I'm a little surprised that that never came up, spending money doesn't deplete our farm system, and it leaves us with pieces that could contribute for years. Watching this wait-and-see approach with the pitching staff makes me nervous that we will go from a team with good offense and bad pitching to the exact opposite.

There's a lot of talk about how this team looks in 5 years if we make a move like signing Trevor Story. The offense is better now than it's going to be in 5 years, the window is open now, assuming they can build a rotation. Building a rotation from whole cloth was very doable three weeks ago. I for one am not interested in being an also-ran for as long as possible, let's win in the regular season, and the playoffs (sounds exciting right?). Let's take the next step now. If we have a declining SS in five years because we were aggressive and put our chips in the pot when we were holding good cards, I'm okay with that. This team spent a decade being good enough to be interesting, and folded in the playoffs. The game has changed a bit since then, but one thing hasn't, you can't trot out a #4 starter in Game 1 of the ALDS. We can debate the potential decline of the players we acquire this year, but next year brings a new set of free agents leaving the team and this conversation continues again, especially if we only figure out SS for one year and our in-house options prove to not pan out at SS. Let's make the moves we need to make to maximize our chances while we have a good lineup. This team will get bad again eventually, and going all in will likely expedite that, but let's try to have something to show for it. I would also argue that if we fill the SS hole via FA rather than a trade we don't give up future prospects. I don't care about individual decline if we can win a WS. Isn't that the whole point anyway?

I think signing Trevor Story is the only reasonable pivot after sleeping through the SP market frenzy. They need someone with a good glove to protect this rotation, which currently stands at 1 reclamation project and 2 rookies. They provide better protection for this rotation by scoring more runs, too. Story is the only FA option left that provides both. We can wait on players like Lewis or Martin, or even take a chance on Gordon. These are unknown commodities and are not ML ready on opening day. We don't know know when they will be ready, especially since one is returning from a significant injury. There's a decent chance that none of the in-house options will ever play SS at the ML level Hoping to get Maeda back mid-season is not a strategy. Crossing fingers on lottery ticket SP options is also not a strategy, that's what you do when the question is about depth beyond your starters. This FO went into the off-season with a lot of money to spend, obvious needs, and very clear options to fill those needs without spending prospect capital. What they have after the dust is mostly settled is Baseball Blake Bortles and a whole bunch of "but maybe if..." scenarios. They forced themselves into a situation where Story is the new obvious need. I'm sure they'll offer him 3 years for $45M and act like that was actually going to do it. Then we can hear Falvey recite the word salad non-answer response he always gives. Or better yet, he'll tell us that they made offers and no one wants to come here... and act as if the organization he helms not being attractive to free agents is not his problem.

This makes sense, but also provides evidence that they were nowhere close with anyone else. This deal looks an awful lot like they knew they needed to add someone before the lockout, and so they signed someone that no one else was going to look at until February.

So they were "in on" Robbie Ray, and have been linked to no one else... and then they signed Baseball Blake Bortles. That tracks.

I'm seeing a lot about money and market value, but it seems like nobody is talking about the state of the roster around him. If I'm Buxton, I'm waiting out the front office to see if they're serious about contending before I sign anything at this point. If they get to February with no meaningful additions to SP, SS, or the bullpen, he would be well within his rights to opt for free agency after this season and spend his prime age years with a team that will not only pay him, but will show a willingness to field a competitive team. So far the only difference between this off-season and the previous ones under this FO is that none of the updates about the pitchers going off the board include some hand waving by the Twins about being "in on that guy". I know they won't do anything until after the CBA is worked out, we all know they wouldn't do anything until mid-January even without the CBA hurdle, but the lack of urgency they are showing for massive needs is a bit concerning. Not to mention the fact that every player making more than $5M seems to available in the trade market. Buck should absolutely get paid, but he should also try to win. This FO is talking a big game, just like last year...and the year before that...