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Zephrin

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Everything posted by Zephrin

  1. Zephrin
    Personally, I think $52M is high - especially for multi-year commitments. Remember, the young bats are entering/in arbitration and they will cost more so funds need to be available on that side of the ledger. I hope they find a way to pick up a true ace and I'm ok with paying a premium for that service. But as a team that will have some level of payroll limitations it would be prudent to reserve at least one spot, and maybe two, for developing talent. If the Twins grab 1 big gun and go into the season with Odorizzi as their #3, bring in a veteran innings-eater at the #4, and let Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe/Graterol fill out the back end I would be fine with the decision. If the young guys don't develop or there are injuries they can make a splash at the deadline. But for now some level of payroll flexibility is what will help the Twins keep their window open for more years.
  2. Zephrin
    Yes, but I was suggesting that Berrios goes 2 trips through the order and turns it over to Odo for a couple innings. If Odo throws 30-35 pitches over 2 innings he could come back and pitch Game 3. I agree that if either pitcher goes 2 trips/4-5 innings they are done until at least Game 4.
  3. Zephrin
    Adrianza over Tortuga - assuming they saw what they needed health-wise - makes sense. Gibson might be more of a loyalty add than a real cog in the machine, but if you leave him off he is replaced by who? Thorpe? Not a huge upside there anyway, and if the Twins get blasted in a game they can trot Gibson out for 4-5 innings to preserve the rest of the 'pen. I guess the other option for him is to trot out a Gibson/Smeltzer tandem for Game 4 if we are up 2-1 and prevent Berrios from going on short rest. (And let Berrios/Odo get you 6-7 innings combined in Game 5.)
  4. Zephrin
    Remember, with the rest days both the Game 1 and Game 2 starters are available for Game 5, unless Game 1 starter comes back and pitches Game 4 on short rest, which seems unlikely unless the Twins are down 2-1 and they need someone to go on short rest to try to survive to Game 5.
  5. Zephrin
    I guess my question is could they piggyback Berrios/Odo in Game 1 a la Scherzer/Strasburg? It is my understanding that Stras will pitch again early in the LDS because they treated the Wild Card game as a side-session day. If that is possible, I might go Berrios for 2 trips through the lineup and if the game is going the Twins way back him up with Odo for 2 innings to bridge the middle innings. Then, he can come back and Start Game 3. Dobnak gets Game 2. if the game is not going the Twins way they can mop up Game 1 and start Odo Game 2.
  6. Zephrin
    I think it is fair to want to see some professional results, but having Cavaco at #11 is either an unfair assessment of his potential or the Twins made a pretty big first round mistake. I suspect Falvine and Co. would have him a bit higher up the list I doubt they trade Kirilloff unless the Twins try to land a pretty big fish on the trade market. Larnach or Rooker make more sense to me as a centerpiece for a significant trade.
  7. Zephrin
    I think I agree with this. Pitching is tricky and it would be good to see a bit more from Berrios before locking him up. There is also the (perhaps unfair) consideration that he is a bit small and perhaps more likely to wear down or break down than a bigger pitcher.
  8. Zephrin
    I didn't see it mentioned here (maybe I missed it), but Law stated the following about Javier: "Javier is expected to be ready for spring training, although that surgery could affect his arm and may push him to second base." Is this rumor-mongering or is there real concern he might have to move to 2nd? That would hurt his value quite a bit considering he probably doesn't hit well enough to be "average" at second, right?
  9. Zephrin
    It's hard to believe there is a more talented minor league team than Chattanooga, but after looking it up it seems legit.
  10. Zephrin
    "Tyler Duffey took a no-decision despite having, arguably, the best game of any Twins pitcher - majors or minors - this season." Then shouldn't he have been the Pitcher of the Day over Stewart?
  11. Zephrin
    I know Thorpe is out this year, but what is the status of Landa, Rosario and Romero? Will any of them see time this year? I recall thinking each had shown glimpses of promise pre-injury.
  12. Zephrin
    So, slightly off topic. But one of your initial premises is: "Breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbrenner (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is another matter) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with, at least, plus five wins." While I agree that it was probably time for change, subjective criticism on Gardenhire has always been that he is an above average manager. This has been upheld (to the degree possible anyway) objectively using some fairly well reasoned stats at places like http://darowski.com/hall-of-wwar/expectancy/ There are many signs that point to better things for the Twins this year and into the future, but I don't think the rookie manager is going to be worth 5 more wins than Gardenhire was.
  13. Zephrin
    I essentially just said this same thing in the Dozier discussion. Plouffe is 28. He is supposed to be having his best seasons around age 27. Why lock in a rate when he is more likely to decline than improve at this stage of his career? Let's see how things play out with the prospects. Personally, I think if the Twins are still comitted to Plouffe in 18 months, some things went wrong.
  14. Zephrin
    I wouldn't sign him. He is 27, not 23. We are already getting the bulk of his prime. Wouldn't you rather have the money to lock in some combination of Sano, Buxton, Berrios who will be getting to the end of their 6 year serfdom right at their prime? I'd rather gamble on locking in Sano's age 28/29/30 seasons instead of Dozier's age 31/32/33 seasons. Plus, I guess I'm just not that sold on Dozier as a long-term, above average player. You are supposed to have your best season at age 27. He probably did. Why pay 5-6 years based on peak production?
  15. Zephrin
    I think it would be very out of character for the Twins to hire a new manager from outside the organization. Both Dougie Baseball and Jake Mauer seem to have managerial chops that they will want to keep in house and continue grooming (either at The Show or somewhere in the system). Molitor would also clearly be on the short list. How much does this conversation change if Terry Ryan is also let go in a housecleaning? (Granted, that really seems like a stretch at this point. I only think that happens if Ryan leaves for health/personal reasons.)
  16. Zephrin
    So, tell me again why Jarod Burton is still employed?
  17. Zephrin
    The ultimate answer should be Meyer, but his lack of innings pitched last year probably has him on a Gibson path - a handful of MLB starts mid-summer. Darnell and Kris Johnson seem likely to have a cup of coffee as well - especially in the August/September timeframe.
  18. Zephrin
    I think Hicks and Arcia will both be better than last year and could be breakout guys. A september outfield of Hicks-Buxton-Arcia could be worth the price of admission.
  19. Zephrin
    I think Mauer Dozier and Arcia are all likely to be in the top 5. Unless a young pitcher breaks out (Gibson or Deduno perhaps?) I don't think any of the SP will exceed Perkins 2.1 from last year.
  20. Zephrin
    Nolasco hasn't exceeded 1.8 WAR since about 2008. For him to be in the top 5 this year he will either need to significantly beat his historic metrics or the team as a whole will have to be as bad or worse than it was last year.
  21. Zephrin
    I've always thought this would be a Trade Deadline decision, and even with Rosario's suspension I don't see that changing. Rosario will still have 2 months to settle in and show what he can do at AAA before July 31st, and Dozier has 4 months to prove that his post-All-Star break growth wasn't just an anomaly.
  22. Zephrin
    Mauer's body of work at C is both long enough and impressive enough to get him into the HOF even if he doesn't play another game anywhere. Unquestionably the best catcher in the game for the past decade. Yadi may get himself into the HOF as well, but it will be primarily as a defender and team leader, as his lifetime numbers aren't even close to Mauer's offensively. Posey will almost certainly switch positions - probably even earlier than Mauer. For me, it is really just a question of where he ranks all-time as a catcher. I think there are only like 13 HOF catchers, and he should be in that class. Where he won't get now is into that upper echelon with Bench and Berra, or even the 2nd tier with Ivan. It hurts his legacy, and he knows it. "Selfless" might not be the word I would choose, but it is definitely a sacrifice from a legacy standpoint.
  23. Zephrin
    The lineup looks very promising (Especially when you add Mauer), and the bullpen could be solid and powerful. The rotation won't get us there.
  24. Zephrin
    If I read the rules correctly, since Roch won the season series with Nor, they automatically advance in the event the teams are tied, correct?
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