Physics Guy

Without a doubt, health dragged them down last year. I have hopes that the moves this year have given them better depth at key positions and in the rotation. I do wonder if they would have made the Gallo move A) if they knew they were getting Correa and B) if they knew they wouldn't get appealing offers for Kepler.

I couldn't agree more. A baseball season can often wreck the best laid plans. The only two things I think the FO failed to address was adding another quality bullpen arm and adding a RH bat in the corners. Both of those were sort of addressed with Taylor and the return of Alcala, but they could definitely be addressed during the season.

Much of this off-season has been frustrating for Twins fans. Once again, the Twins failed to pick up a bona fide ace to front the rotation. They did however pull off a major coup by re-signing Carlos Correa for a contract valued will below what many predicted he would get going into the off-season. They also solidified the depth in the rotation by trading fan-favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. As we approach Spring Training, where do the Twins stand? Let us take a look at predicting the Twins' record based on WAR. Last year, the Twins totaled 36.1 WAR as a team, resulting in a 78-84 record. There is a strong correlation between team WAR and overall wins. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins A team constructed of all 0 WAR players is said to be around a 50 win team. It could be argued that the Twins under-performed based on their season WAR total last year and probably should have been in the low to mid-80's for wins. A team war total of 45 or better should get the team to a win total in the 90's. So how do the changes made by the front office equate to 45+ WAR for the 2023 Twins? Below is a projection for individual WAR values for the upcoming season. Each player listed below is followed by a projected number of games and their associated WAR (based on b-WAR). Starting IF (12.8 Combined WAR) Vazquez (105, 1.2), Kirilloff (120, 1.5), Polanco (140, 3.0), Correa (140, 5.6) Miranda (130, 1.5). The question marks here are Kirlloff and Miranda. Neither is projected to add huge numbers to the team's total and players such as Kyle Farmer and Joey Gallo can mitigate those two. Both Kirlloff and Miranda have the potential to produce higher WAR values than projected. Starting OF/DH (12.6 Comined WAR) Gallo (120, 1.8), Buxton (60 CF, 60 DH, 5.0), Kepler (120, 1.8), Taylor (120, 2.5), Larnach (110, 1.5). There are several question marks here, starting with Gallo. The Twins obviously feel Gallo still has some of what he showed in Texas. Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are all projected to be similar and if one slips, Gordon gives some additional protection. Having Michaeal A. Taylor to play 100 games in CF allows the Twins to keep Buxton healthy and potentially play 120 games in 2023. This could be done by a rotation of something like this every eight games: CF, DH, Bench, CF, DH, CF, Bench, DH. Obviously projecting 120 G from Buxton is a gamble, but he did put up 4.0 WAR in 92 G in 2022. Bench (1.9 Combined WAR) Jeffers (55, 0.7), Farmer (100, 0.7), Gordon (60, 0.5). While this may not appear a strength, this may be where this year's Twins may be set up to improve on 2022. They appear to have more depth and players not listed (Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Lewis, Julien and Lee) potentially able to come up and fill in as needed. Rotation (12.8 Combined WAR) Gray (3.0), P.Lopez (3.0), Ryan (2.4), Mahle/Maeda/Ober (4.4). Projecting games here was a bit of a challenge. Gray and Lopez's WAR values are in the range of their past two season and Ryan's projects a slight increase from last season (2.2). Mahle, Maeda and Ober all have health concerns, but the hope is that they can hold down the fort between the three of them. Having Varland, Winder and Woods-Richardson in AAA as players ready step in also mitigates a huge drop in WAR production. There is no "horse" raising this group's WAR, just a bunch of solid contributors. Bullpen (6.8 Combined WAR) Duran (2.5), J.Lopez (1.5), Jax (1.0), Thielbar (0.7) Moran (0.7), Alcala (0.4), Pagan (0), Megill (0). The biggest concerns here are Lopez producing closer to what he did in Baltimore as well as Pagan and Megill being used in situations that do not produce negative WAR. This is one area the front office could still help the 2023 Twins. A Michael Fullmer signing makes a ton of sense. Altogether, this projection gives the Twins 46.9 WAR as a group, enough to push them to 90+ wins for 2023. This should put them solidly into playoff consideration with the new playoff format. While some of the projections may seem optimistic, it could be argued that they are all well within historical performances and allowing for some development from younger players. This squad seems better situated to deal injuries than the past couple of years. The Twins have above average backups for the three toughest defensive positions (Jeffers, Farmer and Taylor). While there may have been moves that the front office could have made this year to make this team better, it seems as though the floor for this squad is as high as we've seen for a few years.

I appreciate you clarifying your position as I too was confused. I'm not sure the vitriol in the rest of the post is necessary. While I now better understand your position, I couldn't disagree more. Yes, a team like the Twins needs to maximize assets. Trading expiring contracts is certainly one way to do so, but doing that in the middle of a potential playoff push makes no sense to me. Regardless of how well one of the young pitchers is doing, it's unlikely they would be more valuable than a veteran that is pitching well. The clubhouse would be enraged if they traded a starter in that scenario. If the team is floundering, by all means they should trade. Actually, not trading them in that situation is negligence by the FO in my opinion.

C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Dansby Swanson ($25M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 19.64% under budget

Steep price, but if Twins are happy with Miranda (and they should be), those two are blocked at 3B. I'm a little surprised they would trade two 3B prospects, although Steer might be more likely a 2B. The Twins don't have a regular in the lineup over 30, so it was time to dump some prospects for SP. I'm still perturbed they didn't just spend in FA for a starter, but this is a good option after the fact. The additional year of control for Mahle helps.

While adding Rodriguez on a reasonable contract is fine, Story is the only one that makes sense to me. They have a clear need at the position and a cloudy future in the prospect area at the position. While Story seems to have declined some recently, he is a dramatic improvement over the last two years at the position. The FO has shown they won't spend big money on FA pitching, so why not use some of the surplus budget on Story? They would still be well under last year's payroll. The other necessary move is to trade for a Sonny Gray/Chris Bassitt type to front the rotation and fill the #5 slot with rotating prospects.

There is no wrong answer. Chocolate often accompanies butterscotch or caramel on my ice cream.

As the most recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek discussed, I don't think the Twins have had this level of pitching prospects as long as I can remember. Of course, until they make it to the bigs, it doesn't matter (TINSTAAPP). I really fell like Falvey and Levine are staking their future with the Twins on whether these guys can make the next step. I really hope they are right, because it has been a long time since we have had multiple exciting young pitchers.

While I do love caramel, it's butterscotch hands-down.

Not a fan of the opener, but it seems to me Jax's likely position will be as a multiple inning reliever. With our (likely) young staff and the propensity for 5 inning outings from starters, we need a guy that can throw a couple of innings once or twice a week. It's up to Rocco and Wes to figure out a way to maximize him in the bullpen. I just don't see him as an SP long-term. If you need to have a bullpen game, fine have Jax start. Otherwise, it's time to put him in the BP. Plenty of failed starters have become excellent relievers.

Carlos Correa and Trevor Story beg to differ.

I am somewhat ambivalent to this FO. I was enthusiastic about the changes they made early on, but things have stagnated. Some of the lack of development, or should say the lack of pitchers being promoted to the majors, can certainly be attributed to the lack of a minor league season in 2020. It's hard to dispute that the Twins were unlucky with regards to health this past season. Many have ripped the Twins for not protecting Akil Badoo, but I think it was a reasonable gamble on the Twins part. The guy was 22 and had most recently played only 29 games at High A in 2019, so I understand their gamble. Some say it was foolish to keep Jake Cave, but he had an OPS+ of 111 and 113 in '18 and '19. His K/BB ratios should have been a clue that keeping Lamonte Wad was probably the wiser choice. I am more disappointed with their lack of giving guys like Wade, Nick Anderson and Tyler Wells opportunities before jettisoning them. I think this FO has done some things well. They have made good bargain signings towards the end of the offseason, such as Cruz, Donaldson and even Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. The last two may not have worked out for the Twins (still ticked about Lynn's attitude and subsequent performance with the Sox), but they appeared to be good signings at face value. I think the front office has done a good job of acquiring young talent at the trade deadline. The Buxton signing was a godsend and is team-friendly. The part that has me soured on the FO is the lack of activity in the FA market. They clearly have needs at SP and SS and given past budgets, money to spend. While they certainly can still make trades to acquire the needed pieces, that requires surrendering prospects instead of just money. It's not like they don't have the money, so I don't quite get it. My suspicion is that the Twins will trade for one veteran SP of the Sonny Gray ilk and maybe sign Pineda and someone like Jose Iglesias as stop-gaps in hopes that the young pitchers and Lewis/Martin develop. It seems this FO is pushing all of their chips in depending on those prospects to develop. If that is the case, they had better hope they pan out or they may be looking for a new job. I hope that my suspicion is incorrect, but their is little proof to the contrary thus far.

I understand your point, but that is not entirely true. Both Maeda and Berrios were as good last year as anybody the Royals had in 2015. You don't have to have an "Ace", but it certainly helps.

It feels like #1 is most likely at this juncture. #2 is unlikely to me as I can't see Falvey & Levine trading away a significant amount of their prospect pool to acquire a front end SP. They could have spent money they have available to sign one of the FA pitchers such as Ray, Gaussman or Stroman. Any one of those would have been a satisfactory signing. I suspect Greinke, Pineda, J. Iglesias and a couple of RP sounds about right. Ugh...