Otto von Ballpark

The best players generally don't reach free agency, and the ones that do are staggered over many offseasons. The 20th highest FA contract in any one offseason is not particularly impressive. Anyway, my main point still stands: TR's behavior in the KC offseason was not very different from his previous offseason or any number of his other offseasons. His one move that seemed to really buck the trend was Nolasco and it appears to have been a bit of a reach to compensate for his inactivity in previous offseasons.

I agree with your overall take, but a "likely scenario" as a plus major leaguer is a bit too generous right now. At this point, his most likely / mean outcome is probably fringe AAA starter / MLB reliever (think Swarzak outside of 2013). Fien/Burton/Duensing would be an outcome a step or two above that.

I was thinking more prospect ranking and stats, rather than pitching style (or handedness, which I noted). He's more like Gilmartin than May in that regard. Pressly's not a bad comp either -- he got hit hard as a starter in AA, fared better after a move to the pen. Good to get someone similar without the Rule 5 strings attached! The others you mention were career relievers, big K/9 but also big BB/9 too. Welker and Hoey in particular were suspiciously old, Pryor is more interesting on age and level advancement alone. Adam's profile suggests pretty stable and modest peripherals, maybe getting hit a little hard but perhaps some bad FIP luck too?

Back to the thread title, if you think of the two trades as one (Fuld + Correia for Milone + PTBNL/cash), TR still comes out ahead!

I'm not saying the 2013 FA SP class was any great shakes. But Ryan opted not to sign any FA SP the previous offseason too (except Marquis), despite a staff with similar question marks. He was similarly reticent about signing FA position players, outside of a couple very obvious needs (Willingham, Doumit, Carroll). He was in full, classic TR rebuild mode. And I've got news for you: a 3/24 FA contract in modern MLB is pretty much bargain bin shopping. Not that it's entirely a bad thing -- who among us doesn't like a nice bargain bin? -- and to Ryan's credit, he's gotten a couple useful guys around that price (Willingham and Hughes). His only foray out of the bargain bin was Nolasco (and even he was essentially just the most expensive innings eater on the market, in hindsight probably forced after the rotation disasters of 2012-2013). I think maybe TR realized too late that 3/24 is the new 2/10, in terms of getting Tewksbury-level quality on the FA SP market. Probably would have been better to be more aggressive in the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 offseasons, looking for more Hughes level signings and investing innings in Kazmir upside types rather than trusting a very shaky status quo and very shaky, dirt-cheap FA patches (Marquis, KC, Pelf). Probably doesn't affect TR's 5-year plan all that much, although it could have made the last few years a little more interesting, maybe given us an extra trade chip just for the cost of cash.

Trevor May was quite a bit better -- one year removed from being a #50-#70 ranked prospect in all MLB, control issues but a K/9 that suggested potential bullpen dominance even if he didn't make it as a starter. Jason Adam feels like more of a Sean Gilmartin type -- modest peripherals, got hit hard in the minors (Gilmartin at AAA, Adam at AA). Given his right-handedness, Adam seems like an even longer shot to make it, but hopefully he can get things straightened out and take over as a depth guy in place of our AAA graduates. Fine return for an expiring contract. Will be interesting to see where we send him (AA or AAA) and in what role.

Don't know if it has been said explicitly here, but Jason Adam is not currently on a 40-man roster. However, as a 2010 high school pick, he will need to be added to the 40-man by November or thus be eligible for selection in the 2014 Rule 5 draft.

All the more impressive that he did it while still on the MLB roster!

I don't care either, but there is a limit to how many seasons the Twins will protect/roster a guy who isn't producing in the low minors. Basically, if he repeats his performance this season in high-A next year, I doubt they keep him on the roster that winter into 2016, although by that point we may be able to pass him through waivers anyway and keep him in the org.

Thanks jokin. I guess, as a strict corner player, Kepler probably has perhaps one more season to get things going, sustainably, with the bat. He'll be nearly 23 at that point.

Not bad, but as you allude to, it's 62 PA of .417 BABIP with roughly the same modest ISO and BB% he's had all season. Any reports on Kepler's defense in CF this year?

The AVG looks nicer, but that's actually an even lower ISO and BB% (and slightly higher K%) than his disappointing first half of the season.

No doubt it's been a lost season for Buxton, but there is plenty of doubt that he'd "already be ensconced in CF with the Twins" by this point. I generally don't think the Twins are slow to promote prospects, but Buxton ended last season in high-A. He would have needed an immediate continuation of his 2013 A-ball performance in AA then AAA, plus a lack of any kind of injury, even minor ones which could have delayed his promotion at all. And even then, I am guessing his AAA promotion would have been midseason, and his MLB promotion would have been Sep. 1st (or perhaps now, to get a jump on Sep. 1). Although I also tend to think the Twins are less likely to promote elite prospects at the end of a season if they aren't on the 40-man roster yet (i.e. Mauer 2003), barring immediate MLB need (i.e. Kubel 2004). Doing so needlessly risks wasting service time in case of injury, like Kubel 2005. With Sano on the shelf too, I think Buxton would have needed a historic performance in 2014 to see MLB action.

Well, if you limit this examination of Twins decision-making to free agents available in December 2012, sure, KC was probably as good as the Twins were going to do without a huge contractual commitment. But -- it's not like the names in this particular FA market were a surprise to anyone. The rules for FA were not changed, they were all 6+ year veterans, known for a year-plus as likely FA. But the previous offseason, the Twins did even less despite having similar serious impending rotation issues. As soon as TR took over after 2011, the Twins entered slow rebuild mode, which meant roll the dice with whatever's left under contract while restocking the minor leagues, augmenting with only bargain bin FAs when absolutely necessary. That's how our 2013 rotation (and team) came to be, not through one poor FA SP class. And those critical of the KC signing generally object to the slow rebuild, or at least committing so exclusively to it.

Good move by TR! For as much as a "leader" and good example that Correia is, I wonder if his stubborn refusal to pitch out of the bullpen delayed our opportunities to trade him (assuming he is starting, at least initially, in LA). Confidence is necessary for pro athletes, but I like to see a little more flexibility from role players like KC.

I think there is a lot more of the mediocre expiring contracts / getting expensive veterans on this 25-man roster, than borderline guys getting evaluated right now. Pino, I guess, and Pressly, although both could easily be optioned and recalled after Sep. 1 when Meyer will presumably be shut down. Colabello? He's a virtual lock to be removed from the 40-man after the season. Schafer is too, although I understand they just picked him up and want a look at him -- arb-eligible guys with a "shot at being the 4th OF heading into next season" are DFA'd after the season all the time, if only to re-sign on a cheaper, more flexible minor league deal (see Sam Fuld last winter). Otherwise, Vargas is sticking on the 40-man regardless -- he certainly doesn't need to be on the 25-man for urgent evaluation purposes. EDIT TO ADD: Also, when a lot of these evaluations (Pino, Johnson, Darnell... Swarzak with a start too?) have been rotating through 2 open rotation spots the last month and a half, 40-man roster spots are a big criteria. They could add Meyer to the roster for Saturday's start, send him back down to AAA Tuesday, and recall him Sep. 1 (if only on paper, assuming he is shut down) and not even burn an option year on him.

He played Sunday, but not Monday (with an off day yesterday).

For the record, I don't endorse the Randy Johnson example either. Meyer's case for promotion is made quite easily without it.

The innings limit is in regards to his season innings total. Rob Antony was quoted this spring as targeting a "standard" 30% increase, which would put Meyer in the 135-155 IP range for 2014 (depending on whether you count fall 2013 instructional league innings). And I have no problem with that. 2012 was a full healthy season for Meyer, 25 starts in ~130 game season. His 2 month absence in June and July of 2013 are the only starts he has missed in his nearly 3 year pro career thus far.

Just to be clear: I don't advocate Meyer in the bullpen. I was responding to a poster who advocated pitching him out the bullpen in September. I was merely asking, if September, why not now?

First of all, almost everyone advocating for him to be promoted now is not suggesting a bullpen role. That's the compromise position with those who are resisting him starting in MLB right now. Secondly, if the primary criteria is finding 2015 Twins, there is no shortage of available 40-man roster spots right now. Florimon and Schafer are both out of options next spring, and project as very long shots to make the 25-man roster. Fryer is also out of options, and is almost certainly replaceable in the offseason. Correia and Willingham will be off the 40-man roster anyway by late October if they don't sign extensions (unlikely). Burton has an option which could easily be declined. Duensing and Swarzak are getting expensive and their roles are largely redundant with the cheaper Thielbar and Deduno, respectively. Edgar Ibarra was just sent down to AA, suggesting he's not a strong candidate for 40-man retention.

Why couldn't he pitch out of the pen now, when he isn't up against any innings limit and his arm is presumably fresher? I just don't get why he needs another 30 IP in AAA right now, on top of the 112 IP he's already logged at that level this year, as opposed to some similar number in MLB, in advance of the 2015 season where he can hopefully contribute from day 1. Somehow, the reasoning always comes back to: - he's not a fully finished product (rookies never are) - he might struggle in his first taste of MLB (duh) - we should wait until September (why?) - it might tax the bullpen (we have tons of bullpen options) - Correia's still on the roster (who cares?) - it would use an option year (factually incorrect) - we can control him until age 32 if we keep him down until May 2015 (depressing) None of which is particularly compelling to me.

And as I've said before, you are mistaken on that. I updated my post above with an example -- Doug Bernier spent half of the 2013 season in AAA and half in MLB, yet did not use an option year. This happens regularly with players who are added to the 40-man roster and promoted to MLB simultaneously. And once on the 40-man roster, they can even be optioned to AAA for less than 20 days during the season and not use an option (like Arcia will do this year).

You keep saying this, but I've pointed out it's false. Alex Meyer will not burn an option year in 2014 UNLESS he is sent back down to the minors for 20+ days over the remainder of 2014. This is all over the web, just google "mlb options 20 days". EDIT TO ADD: some sites aren't clear. An option year is used only if a player spends 20 days in the minors "on optional assignment". A player not on the 40-man (Meyer) is not on optional assignment while he's in the minors. Oswaldo Arcia's rehab stint earlier this year was not an optional assignment either. Those days do not count for the purposes of calculating options. For example, Doug Bernier was added to the 40-man roster and promoted to MLB midseason 2013, and spent the rest of the year in MLB. He did not use an option year, despite spending the first half of the season in AAA -- because he wasn't on optional assignment at that time, those days didn't count toward his 20.

But why would you wait on Meyer until he is basically AT his season innings limit to give him his highest-stress innings thus far in his career? That seems rather reckless for an arm you are protecting. And for a 3.5 week courtesy to Correia? Why not a 6-man rotation in the meantime, then? Also, when was the last time the Twins DFA'd a player like Correia? Juan Rincon? Kubel's recent tenure here wasn't very long and his performance was worse (and he was arguably still limited by injuries). Marquis' Twins tenure was short and his performance disastrous, same for Bret Boone back in the day. Nick Blackburn was sent to the minors and hurt, but even he finished out his contract. I guess part of this is that the Twins had good teams recently and didn't have too many of these guys, but Lew Ford, Rondell White, Joe Mays, Rick Reed, etc. were generally allowed to play out the string as health allowed. A healthy veteran who has been with the team almost two seasons and simply has a below-average but not disastrous recent performance record? If no one else wants him, I think he plays out the string here.