Otto von Ballpark

I sorta get what you're saying, but I can't agree. Signing Miguel Sano for $3.15 million in 2009 was great, and a welcome change from the Twins international efforts pre-2009, but it's really a different ballgame than targeting major Cuban/Asian talent. (Actually, on that note -- the Nishioka signing certainly drags down the Twins 2009-2014 international ranking, no?) The Twins, as a rebuilding club shedding salary obligations, with a depleted farm system and new ballpark resources, had a clear opportunity to get potentially elite talent for mid-tier domestic FA prices. By all accounts, they chose not to participate (or at least not bid seriously). I don't see why they don't deserve some criticism for that, especially when Cuban/Asian talents are still being signed, and the most recent results still suggest solid value in them.

Interesting take, thanks for explaining. First of all, starting this in 2009 seems like a very selective endpoint. Secondly, I don't know if we rank anywhere near that high. There's Sano, then... Jorge Polanco? Lewis Thorpe? We've gotten zero MLB production from international players signed since 2009, and Sano is our only post-2009 international signee to even make BA's Top 100 prospect lists (hopefully that will change for 2015?). Just glancing at Rookie of the Year voting, 7 post-2009 international signees have already received RoY votes, a couple more are guaranteed to do so this winter, and another 3 who didn't get RoY votes got MVP votes instead. And that's not even counting guys like Soler, Franco, etc. who are closer to Sano's development track. Not saying I'd trade Sano for all of those guys, but it does highlight how Sano's production is still very much speculative.

Yeah, I don't actually mind "overpay" if it means you get a guy you want. Probably just meant more desperation in this case, like we let our pitching get so bad we couldn't afford to wait out the market anymore. I don't like to examine the pitching and hitting sides independently, though -- while both the domestic and international pitching markets have been relatively thin/weak lately, if we had been able to snag an impact bat internationally, it could have A) helped compensate for some of our poor pitching, and given us another asset to use directly or indirectly (i.e. allowed us to trade a prospect) to acquire pitching help.

As an aside: Kepler probably has neutral at best trade value right now, due to the 40-man roster spot he requires while being nowhere near MLB. Might be a negative for some teams.

A wash? What does that even mean? Because we signed Sano, we didn't have to bother pursuing Soler? Besides the signings themselves happening 3 years apart, Sano was an amateur shortstop who just turned 16. Soler was a 20 year old professional outfielder. I'm not seeing how one precludes the other at all. No doubt there is risk in any signing, but Cuban players have been pretty incredible (and remarkably reliable) investments. I don't there's been a recent bust of more than $10-14 million total guarantee (pending results of the most recent signs, of course). That's Pelfrey money. The recent big ticket guys have more or less become superstars, with Cespedes' 3.5 WAR per 150 games bringing up the tail end, all signing for roughly Nolasco money (or less, by AAV).

Quibble with the dollars all you want, but those are the kind of guys we should have been targeting as far back as 2011 if not earlier. They had the potential to be complete duds, but they also had the potential to be top prospects and superstars. We have not added anyone with that kind of potential recently outside the draft and the spending-capped international guys. And they weren't hiding playing stickball in some remote island alleyway. These guys were well known when it came time for MLB to bid on them, pretty much just requiring cash -- far less than domestic FAs but with a pretty darn good track record.

I don't care about flawlessness. Losing Willingham would actually hurt the Twins on the field somewhat (well, maybe not ON the field... at the plate, anyway ). Sign Pelfrey too, I don't care. Just give me SOME activity on the international market, with an eye toward long-term high-end talent acquisition. Here's another way to look at it, which might better satisfy the shifting goalposts of your original challenge: in 2011, let TR take over but forbid any new domestic spending (greater than $1-2 mil or whatever) on players 30 and over. Mandate him to spend the same amount (~$130 mil over 3 years) instead on the international market. The Twins would undoubtedly be better off for it today, even if they overbid for a guy or two from that group, and in addition got one of the duds (although there haven't been many expensive ones). I don't know if it's a fireable offense quite yet, but if I was ownership, I certainly would be questioning TR's strategy of recent years. EDIT TO ADD: Of course, as owner, I would have also started out the rebuild with the directive "what can we do better than our rebuild in the 1990s, other than draft better?"

YOU are the one who picked Abreu, Soler, Kazmir, and Chen. My post listed ALL of the big international signings of the "new TR" era and simply said the Twins would be in much better shape if they had taken some part in that market. And YOU are the one who started talking specific salaries and payroll. Add $20 million to the contracts of those players, and throw in a dud like Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. I don't care. That's still a better Twins team today, going into 2015, and hardly one that would be facing any crippling payroll issues on the horizon.

I was responding to a poster asking for specifics. Otherwise, I try to not to invoke specific players for fear of these kind of responses. That said, there is zero evidence that TR pursued any of these options on the international market, and these guys weren't hiding under a rock. And I actually like TR and would hate to fire him (although his own words about Gardenhire last year and this year suggest that fate should be considered). Personally, I'd just like to "mandate" him to be more aggressive in pursuit of high-end talent, and if he's not up to it, get a front office partner/replacement who is.

Abreu only made $7 mil in 2014, although yes it is $11 mil AAV. I think if we signed Abreu, we wouldn't have bothered with the Kendrys Morales experience, so that's another $7 mil subtracted. That would take your payroll down to $90 mil or so, at least. Kazmir the reclamation project was before 2013, not so much last winter (although I would not have minded him last winter). Lose him for 2014 and you're down to $79 mil, if you really care about it. But looking at potential 2014 wins is vastly under-rating how much better shape this team would be in. In addition to Chen and possibly Kazmir (above-average LH SP on real-life playoff teams) still under contract for 2015, we'd have a superstar at 1B/DH for 5 more years and a MLB-ready, consensus top 25 OF prospect in Soler. THAT'S a team I don't mind waiting for prospect reinforcements a little further down the line! You could add a couple duds to that mix (Nolasco, Pelfrey, and/or Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez) and still be better off than where the Twins sit today, so your "flawless" qualifier doesn't really hold either.

That 2013-2014 offseason number isn't bad, but it includes the re-sign of Pelfrey. And as I've mentioned, a likely overpay/desperation sign in Nolasco. By my count, we guaranteed $33.75 mil to new FA in 2011-2012, although covering 6 season at an average age of 34.7. And 2012-2013, we only guaranteed $14 mil for 3 total seasons of Correia and Pelfrey. But if the domestic FA market hasn't been strong -- why hasn't TR invested internationally when he could? That's even more damning for a rebuilding team on a modest budget. See my post above for specifics.

If TR took the job in 2011 knowing it was a rebuild with modest payroll restraints, he still easily could have signed Jorge Soler or other international prospects before July 2012. He could have pursued Cespedes or Puig for comparable AAV that he gave to Willingham. Wei-Yin Chen would have been a much better gamble for our 2012 rotation, given its question marks beyond that season, than Jason Marquis for similar AAV. Jose Abreu made less money for all of 2014 than Kendrys Morales did for 3 months, and is obviously a way better asset now. None of those moves alone makes the Twins contenders right now, or guarantee contention at any point, but any of them certainly would give us more assets now and put us in a better position going forward. Heck, he could made any two of the above moves, and added two more stinkers along similar lines (i.e. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez), and we'd still be better off. On the domestic front, you're right that it's been mostly slim pickings among notable free agents. If you're not going to contend, you might as well gamble on upside (Garza, Feldman) than consistent mediocrity (Nolasco, Correia). A simple "don't sign Nolasco" would also improve TR's record. Not doubling down on Pelfrey. Also, targeting a more realistic reclamation than (or in addition to) Rich Harden wouldn't have been that hard (Scott Kazmir was actually pitching at the time we hoped that Harden would eventually pitch again). I liked the deal for Worley, but trying some different coaches with him before giving him away after a year would have been advisable (particularly when we fired our coaches within 6 months anyway). Even if you grant that he's working under payroll/rebuild limitations, it's pretty hard not to see that TR has not performed well recently outside of the draft (the fruits of which have yet to reach the majors, or mostly even the upper minors).

My calculations show almost $131 million exactly guaranteed to outside free agents (not counting minor league deals) since TR took over in 2011, covering 19 player seasons. And I only get to that figure by including Morales and his 3-month contract. That's an average season salary of $6.9 mil and age of 32.4. (And of course we dumped about ~$8 mil of those salary guarantees through various trades too.) And when the average MLB player salary is ~$3.5 mil, most of our signings don't register as anything, really. You can dish out ~$4 mil to a Marquis or Pelfrey every year for five years, but that's not a cumulative $20 mil investment in FA in any real sense of "playing the market." Only 3 outside FA contracts have really met that standard: Willingham in 2012, and Nolasco/Hughes in 2014. (I hesitate to include Morales' 3-month contract here -- however bold it was in cash, it was ultra-conservative in term.) Not only is that a very conservative record, you can also make the case that it's not very good -- and in fact, most of the activity this past winter could just as easily be attributed to desperation after the previous two poor offseasons, rather than "being ready to make a little jump." Perhaps a team with a more realistic/aggressive approach in FA for 2011-2013 doesn't need to overpay Nolasco early last winter. (EDIT TO ADD: actually I hope that was the reason for the Nolasco signing, rather than poor talent identification...)

You are correct on his birthplace, but I understand that Martinez does speak Spanish fluently (and has served as an unofficial translator at times).

Garza, Slowey, and Perkins were the graduates from the 2007 list. Which certainly isn't bad, especially when you throw in the sleeper that was Span. It's not TR's fault that Smith traded the best prospect he was handed for pennies on the dollar. That said, even though the cupboard wasn't bare, I might quibble with "well-stocked". The Twins had some pretty horrid position player drafts for a few years there, and they hadn't added much on the international side either. Smith compounded the issue with some bad drafts of his own, but the position player cupboard was pretty bare.

Not sure where you are getting "4 guys in BA top 100". BA's list for 2008 only includes 3 Twins, the top two of whom were acquired in the Santana trade (Guerra at #35 and Gomez at #52), plus Blackburn at #56 oddly. That was Blackburn's only top 100 ranking in 6 years in the minors too.

Thanks Andrew. I've been saying something like this across various threads this week, and it's nice to hear it articulated so well by a more prominent TD voice. Gardy may have been posting ~66 win seasons recently, but there's really no question he's been given ~66 win talent the last few years too (TR admitted as much after 2013). TR is going to have to be accountable for that sooner or later, and I'm still not entirely sure why Gardy was accountable first, rather than both together.

Another "from afar" strike against Molitor: a guy strongly considered for the Twins manager job in 2001 doesn't strike me as someone who would be an innovator, barring other evidence of that trait (and Molitor doesn't have a whole lot). I don't know anything much about Mientkiewicz as manager, but Molitor seems like a "safe" choice more than anything else. And if I wanted a safe choice, I probably would have just stuck with Gardy for another year, maybe with a different pitching coach. Really hope they take serious looks outside the org here.

Agreed, but at this point, Walker is a player with the potential to be a great PROSPECT, rather than already being a stud prospect with the potential to be a good MLB PLAYER. He's an extra level removed than Sano/Meyer, with an appropriate downgrade in success odds/value. Not that TR's baseball acumen can't also say "I like Walker more than the consensus scouting" and keep him -- but the problem is, he seems to always feel that way about all his prospects.

Less of a log jam now, though, with Cueto, Latos, Leake, and even Alfredo Simon all set to hit FA next winter. (And Alfredo Simon probably not even worth his final arb. award this winter)

Not to jump too far back, but of those 7 guys you list, only Sano and Meyer could be stars, really. The rest are mid-tier at best prospects, who either haven't played above A-ball or haven't had a whole lot of success above A-ball yet. The odds that any of them delivers great value as MLBers is not impossible, but not probable either. (That said, their inclusion in any trade is more numbers-based insurance, really.) Still, that leaves Sano and Meyer which are two very good pieces. BUT, if you are legitimately concerned with either, you should be open to dealing them. I suspect the Royals did this with Wil Myers (they pegged his ceiling lower than most observers)... the Rays did it with Delmon Young (albeit after a full MLB season -- damn, what a stupid trade for us)... the Mets probably did it with Gomez. Obviously these guys can still become good players, but if you make your living judging baseball talent, and you think that a guy's ceiling is lower than most others predict, or he will take longer to reach his potential, or whatever -- you should explore capitalizing on that value difference to make your MLB team better, not just in the short run but the long run too. KC held onto all kinds of prospects before Myers and got pretty spotty results from them. The Twins seem to take the "we like all of our prospects" stance a little too much for my taste, probably colored by their well-established historical preference for cheap players and tolerance of losing seasons. I guess that's better than making an incorrect value judgement on a young player (Garza, Ramos), but again, if you consider yourself good at judging baseball talent (Bill Smith should not have ), you are capable of making these kind of value judgements. And if you are honestly looking to maximize success at the MLB level, you should probably swing one of these deals every once and awhile.

Santana was on short rest that day. Shields was on full rest today. And as I mentioned above, it didn't really matter. Balfour was lights out in the 6th and 7th innings. Rincon was going to pitch the 8th inning any way you slice it. It's one of the reasons I like to keep pitching changes to a minimum -- you never know when one guy just isn't going to have it one day, and before you know it, it will be too late. But that's awfully hard to do with a starter on short rest.

I believe Santana told him he was done. Wouldn't have mattered anyway, even if he went 7, Rincon was the "8th inning guy" and blew that game very quickly.

That's part of the advantage of trading for a guy -- you usually get a slightly shorter term on the contract, covering slightly younger ages, as compared to signing a free agent. But yeah, we shouldn't give up any talent in return -- cash is fine, though. I had similar thoughts back in 2003 when Boston was sending Manny Ramirez through waivers. I guess Alex Rios is a more modest recent example.

If that's the case, then Baseball-Reference is also a bit hazy. http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2006_ALDS2.shtml