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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not definitively calling him a bust, but he's clearly headed further down that path in 2015. This was supposed to be his breakout year and he's basically fighting to get back to the big leagues. He's still young, but few players in the league have sustained much success with a 31% K rate and a 7% BB rate, even with a .200 ISO.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you miss the "after 2016" part? Obviously we don't cut Arcia now, but if he's still a ~100 OPS+ bad defense corner OF a year and a half from now, we might not have a lot of options. And given that he is languishing in AAA right now, he might have some work to do just to get back to being a ~100 OPS+ MLB player again. And if Plouffe was a corner outfielder who played bad defense, he would have been a non-tender candidate after 2013 too (when his service time was roughly equivalent to Arcia's projected service time after 2016).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Paulino's best-case career scenario is becoming Eric Fryer.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Seasons aren't won or lost at any one position
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I obviously didn't mean they are similar TODAY. But Arcia is much closer to Viciedo circa 2013 than he is to a valuable trade chip right now. Batting from the left side is probably why Arcia has a career 103 OPS+ vs Viciedo's 97. But even the Twins have shown this year how little that performance is worth when it's accompanied by negative corner OF defense and no forward progress at the plate. Arcia was looking like a potential non-tender candidate after 2016 even before his AAA banishment.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? Both of Oakland's MLB deals involving cash this past winter, the cash was sent FROM Oakland. They also sent out cash in the Samardzija and Brett Anderson deals in 2014 (although they also received cash in the Lester and Dunn deals). As cheap as they are, I doubt Oakland has much interest in cash, particularly when they're not taking on any salary (which presumably they would not be, if they received young players or prospects in return).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Hahn wasn't a "minor league starter" last winter any more than Trevor May is a "minor league starter" right now -- he had a 112 ERA+ and 8.6 K/9 in 73 MLB innings already. And while not a top prospect, Alvarez was a reliever with a career 13.3 K/9 in the minors, who had already appeared in MLB (and had a 10.1 K/9 in 8 IP). Neither had yet to really struggle at any professional level. I know it seems affordable and I wish the Twins could have topped that offer, but for all our minor league depth, we didn't have two available pieces with that combination of MLB experience and success. Still don't, really, unless we want to deal May or Gibson. And Norris' .684 OPS is a 93 wRC+ in Petco -- not a star but 13th out of 26 MLB catchers with 200+ PA. He's on pace for a 3.2 WAR season. Arcia and Meyer are not official busts yet, but they're both trending in that direction. Arcia has spent the last 2.5 years looking a lot like a left-handed Dayan Viciedo impersonator. Unless San Diego was confident in a specific coaching plan that could turn them around, I think they ask for more or different pieces for Norris.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Plawecki is currently the Mets starter, with d'Arnaud on the DL, and they're just as much in contention as the Twins are.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    For that matter, while he's not the most impressive reliever on the market, Clippard has a 146 ERA+ this year and a career 149 ERA+ out of the bullpen. I am not sure Oakland needs to take a salary dump approach to moving him either, or settle for struggling potential relievers / utility players, although he's certainly more likely to be moved for a package like this than Zobrist.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Echoing the above, Tonkin and Reed are worth very, very little right now. And while the book isn't closed on Santana, he's definitely trending closer to bust at the moment -- teams tend not to seek out those types of players unless they are nearly out of options and come very cheaply (i.e. not for MLB level talent). Zobrist is a very reliable 115 OPS+ hitter at the moment, whose primary position has been second base. This past winter he was traded (with Yunel Escobar) for a 115 OPS+ MLB catcher, a solid Polanco type recent 1st round infield prospect, plus another non-40 man prospect. None of whom were recently struggling. Zobrist is much closer to a qualifying offer than a salary dump.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess he wasn't mentioned in this thread, but Jason Grilli is out for the season now: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/jason-grilli-out-for-season-with-achilles-injury.html
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins are 24th in MLB in baserunning runs according to Fangraphs, and 28th according to B-Ref (ahead of only Detroit in the AL).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually McCann was the previous offseason -- Russell Martin was the premier catching FA this past winter, signing for a similar amount with Toronto. Given the state of our catching, it would have been hard to argue if the Twins decided to use the money budgeted for Suzuki and Ervin Santana to make a run at Martin instead (or even McCann as Mauer had just quit catching), or taken a gamble on Miguel Montero. The FA outlook at the position is fairly bleak the next couple years, so now we're probably left scrambling around with Suzuki types anyway, or trying to engineer a potentially more costly trade of talent.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. AJ, Soto, Hundley, etc. -- and even Suzuki himself the winter before (actual multiple seasons before, if we consider his low-cost trades). I guess if they wanted to lock up Suzuki just to have something, but still look at the market for upgrades, that would be okay, but I am pretty confident they didn't do that. At least not last offseason, and that decision is hurting them now. In July 2014, Suzuki was guaranteed to be Plan A for 2015, without any real Plan B given the obvious mistrust and issues around Pinto.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above -- the issue wasn't really "buying high" but settling for a low-upside guy they may very well have to bench/eat soon rather than explore the market. I guarantee you that TR wasn't working the phones looking at other catchers last winter, when he probably should have been, arguably more than trying to ink Ervin Santana.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins also effectively punted on looking for an upgrade for an offseason / 12 calendar months. When they had no prospects to develop in MLB (they clearly didn't trust Pinto, and there was no one else even remotely ready), and they didn't even try to find something else in free agency. I think exploring the market for a better or longer-term solution would have been well worth potentially having to overpay Suzuki in the offseason.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Good theory, but Pelf's value is pretty limited right now -- he's basically an extra reinforcement SP, if you don't already have one like Milone stashed at AAA or May in the bullpen. He should fetch you *something*, but he's probably not going to contribute much to a deal for immediate help of your choosing. And any team trading good value for Plouffe right now has an immediate need at a specific position. What is the likelihood that among that subset of teams, there is also a further subset of teams with a good young catcher to spare? We've discussed the Giants but their infield at the moment is pretty solid, we've discussed the Mets but their starting catcher is actually injured right now, and they may not think they need a 3B for multiple seasons with Wright still under contract. They could just as easily give up a low-level prospect to rent Aramis Ramirez for the rest of 2015. Not sure if any other trade partners would meet this narrow criteria either.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    BA released their mid season top 50, which has graduated a ton of players already and does not yet include new draftees or international signings, and Gordon didn't make the list: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects2015/ Was preseason #61, so he might still be iin that spot although that would be a relative drop with all the graduates. Berries was the only Twin in this top 50.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Wrong trade. Donaldson fetched his replacement at 3B in Lawrie, plus prospects. Still probably not a good trade, but also not one the Twins could replicate for a catcher. Off the top of my head, Oakland does not have a history of trading for B prospects without MLB experience as the centerpiece of a trade.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    So, who would Hawkins replace?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, drop the opening day starter notes -- I still don't see them displacing Hutchinson or Dickey for Pelfrey. (That was my main point -- their two worst performing starters are also two of the most locked-in.) The Jays adding Pelfrey to their starting staff right now would be the equivalent of the Twins adding Frasor to their bullpen. Even with Pelfrey, they would still probably be looking to add another arm (possibly to replace Pelf). Maybe if it is July 31st or August and nothing else materializes.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I've noticed that too. And Lucroy's DL stint was just for a toe injury -- doesn't seem like it should be a career-changer. Berrios straight up for Lucroy is probably a good deal for the Twins, although I am pretty sure the Brewers would want some additional notable prospects -- trading Lucroy would indicate a blow-up rebuild and they'd want some quantity to go with the quality. And given Lucroy's contract and the FA market for catchers the next few offseasons, they would be in no hurry. But I'm starting to come around to the idea that I couldn't fault it from the Twins side. Just like I probably couldn't have faulted them for spending big on Russell Martin. Their internal catching outlook is bleak, and like I said, the FA market doesn't look promising either. It's going to have to be a trade, and a Lucroy trade now would provide benefits in at least 3 seasons.... very tempting...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty desperate? Buehrle (115 ERA+) Hutchinson (3.71 FIP, opening day starter) Dickey (2014 opening day starter) Norris (102 ERA+, BA's #18 prospect) Sanchez (110 ERA+, BA's #27 prospect, on rehab assignment) Estrada (108 ERA+) Who would Pelfrey replace in that group? No doubt they might like to add a *good* starter, but I doubt Pelfrey would be their target. He's not even appreciably better than Estrada.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure Oakland would not trade a catcher currently sporting a 145 OPS+ and controlled for the next 4.5 seasons without asking for an elite prospect (i.e. Berrios or Sano) in return.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Why does that make sense for the Jays? With Aaron Sanchez on a rehab assignment, they've got 5+ starters who would be ahead of Pelfrey on their depth chart. And I doubt anyone is eager to trade for Pelfrey and immediately stick him in the bullpen.
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