Otto von Ballpark

Hunter is also 10th in B-Ref WAR (once you remove the Senators players); http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/leaders_bat_50.shtml

Here's Fangraphs WAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=1961&ind=0&team=8&rost=&age=&filter=&players= Hunter in a 10th place tie with Koskie. By wRC+ (rate stat), he's 38th.

I don't think Torii can beat Knoblauch's peak, can he? It came in some lost seasons, but Knobby was pretty incredible for a few years there.

Yeah, his 2012 pace was great. But everyone knew it wasn't really sustainable, probably not for the rest of 2012 and certainly not for 2013-2014. He was basically the same guy he was 4 months earlier. I am sure his stock had risen, to the point that if were declared a FA he would have received better than a 2/14 offer, but I doubt it had risen to the point where a team would surrender a worthwhile asset to get him at that price. Years of control generally aren't that valuable at the deadline, particularly for a $7 mil AAV mid-30's DH. Heck, a lot of teams might prefer the flexibility of going year-to-year with such a player. Jason Adam was a C prospect when we got him. We probably could have fetched something better in 2012, but it still doesn't mean it was worth making the deal. Multiple C/C+ prospects aren't that great, especially if they required 40-man roster spots, etc.

They generally don't change hands 4 months into a multi-year deal, no.

Willingham was 33 years old, well established, and pretty consistent in his career. If no one was prepared to offer substantially better than 3/21 the previous offseason, I doubt they'd be willing to surrender something worthwhile to take on that contract 4 months later just because he almost doubled his HR/FB rate for a half season. (And sure enough that rate returned to slightly below his career rate for the last 2 months of 2012, and the full 2013-2014 seasons.) Should we have just shipped him off to Miami for the Carlos Lee trade return? Or to Detroit for Lester Oliveros 2.0?

No doubt he was having a good year, and was a fair value for us going forward on that contract -- but were other teams offering much of anything to take on that contract at that time? Better players were moved for not much in return in July 2012 (Hunter Pence and Hanley Ramirez), plus some lesser options moved for basically nothing at all. Teams generally don't pay extra for extra years of control at the deadline -- they can deal with those extra years better in the offseason. It's what makes the Hamels situation unique, because he is signed long term but also viewed as an elite player for the rest of 2015 too. Even in his career year, Willingham wasn't seen as an elite pick-up -- the extra years on his deal were neutral value at best in a trade deadline scenario. Also, Willingham was probably seen as a DH only option, which eliminated one league and any AL contenders already set at that position. And the AL wasn't particularly competitive that year. Eyeballing standings and rosters, only Detroit might have been a good fit (Delmon Young). Who would they have been bidding against? Not surprising if the Twins reasoned that Willingham at 2/14 going forward offered more value than anything offered in trade.

Were teams looking to trade value for him, though, or just trying to "help" the cheap last place Twins save a few bucks?

No, sorry for the confusion. I was saying that Tulo would probably like to have an opt-out -- he'd easily top 5/98 this winter, and he could pick his new team. But he doesn't have an opt out.

Is Arcia at this point all that different in value than Kielty circa 2003? Probably not that far ahead of Mark Red man circa 2001 either...

The market may be slow for him, but I don't know if that means the price has fallen. The primary driver of a Papelbon trade right now is Papelbon wanting out of Philly -- the team itself has not shown much inclination to dismantle and shed salary. I am not at all sure they will cede to his demand, and if he will change his tune about wanting to close.

Agreed. It is a little maddening to see so many folks say that Arcia, Kepler, Gonsalves, etc. are "off limits". You obviously don't have to give them away if all the market will bear is Pierzynski and Hawkins, but if you're not willing to even consider offering them for better players you're doing the 2015 team and fans a great disservice.

And if Achter and Darnell are strictly triple emergency options, use those 40 man spot to evaluate Rogers and Duffey in advance of Rule 5 like we somehow failed to do with Gilmartin last year. (Or were we just being smart and aggressive and chasing wins with Burton and Swarzak late in the 2014 season?)

They rode Thompson way too long. Boyer arguably too. Given their upside, the leash should have been much shorter with those two. Also not sure why we had to get more looks at Thielbar and Tonkin, who were actually seen plenty in 2014. New faces would have been more informative. Finally, O'Rourke and May have yet to pitch any really meaningful innings in relief. We've somehow gone about 4 months without actually testing any new high upside options.

Those are just the things I could name. The Dodgers could have advanced evaluation metrics based on those tools, which they in effect share with the player who could improve by it. I just took issue with the idea they'd share a generalized stat like wOBA (or FIP) and essentially withhold the more meaningful components. Seems to have it reversed.

Are you claiming the Twins have some advanced metric, that goes well beyond our puny FIP components, that says Pelfrey is better in the rotation right now than May? Is this the same metric that said it was a good idea to keep Correia in the rotation until August last year, at which point the metric must have magically flipped to the opposite conclusion as soon as we found another team willing to take his salary and perhaps promise him a few starts?

But sharing wOBA with a minor league player is almost meaningless. It's akin to the final grade of their performance. What you selectively share with the player are the components which hold keys to improving their grade: spray charts, heatmaps, zone/count stats, etc.

May had 2 starts this year where he was removed early under special circumstances: at 51 pitches for injury, and at 30 pitches for extreme ineffectiveness. Those games happened, but they don't really tell us anything about how the Twins wanted to use him. May also has the fewest starts of any of our regular starters, so those short starts are influencing his average greater. (May also was injured during spring training, and made his season debut later than any of our other regular starters, which might be skewing the numbers, especially given May's smaller number of starts.) Put those two starts aside, and May is within 1 out per GS of Gibson, and within 2 outs per GS of Hughes who far and away leads our staff in this measure.

You think the Dodgers are sharing wOBA with minor league players, but holding more detailed stuff back for evaluation? That has it backwards. wOBA, FIP, etc. are the like the grades on the top of the paper. What is beneficial to the students/players are the explanations in the margins, of how that grade was arrived at.

Nobody is suggesting immediately inserting them as the 7-8 inning guys. Everybody is suggesting that with a season-long lack of better alternatives to give these some major league exposure to see if they can help. With your plan (just wait for help from outside the org), we could well be shut out of any 2015 bullpen upgrades if we can't swing a reasonable trade next week. Or we'll be FORCED to throw some untested guys into those 7-8 inning roles over the last two months of the season. Me? I would have tried to collect more data on our internal options earlier in the season, AND tried to swing a midseason trade for help. They are not mutually exclusive.

My theory is that Duensing's first career DL stint this year was related to some kind of cloning effort.

Says the team and player who rested little down the stretch last year in order to secure a $150k playing time bonus, this after getting a $12 mil guaranteed extension.

Agreed there was no real "sell high" opportunity for Pelfrey. And I do think they are trying/willing to sell him, but part of the problem is they are letting that process dictate their usage of him and May. If it's 2014 and we're not going anywhere, all right, keep Correia in the rotation until you can send him elsewhere in August. Not how I'd run a rebuilding season, but whatever. But 2015, when you've got a top 5 record in the league? You've got to have a better plan to deploy your assets than what they've done with Pelfrey and May the past month.

Yeah, I know. Wasn't really directed at you, but just expounding on what "serious" should mean in this context.

It's one thing to not be serious, it's another thing to just go through the motions when you're in playoff position in late July. So far, they've mostly treated this bullpen like it was 2014 or 2013, like if we just let Roenicke, Burton, and Boyer finish the season, we'll be doing them a solid on their future contract chances...