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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Thornton was part of Seth's proposed bullpen plan, but Doogie Wolfson reported the Twins were not interested in him: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/al-central-notes-thornton-rondon-tribe-tigers.html
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    But I am pretty sure you can unload Milone and his salary in spring training, or early in the season, or basically whenever you need to. So you can still have your 5th starter competition, look to call up Berrios early, etc, and Milone's lack of options really shouldn't matter. If Milone sticks around the rotation longer than that and blocks anyone, I suspect it would be the effect of locking May into the pen rather than the cause. Which would be bad too, but again, the root cause of that situation, or first domino if you will, would be locking up mediocre relievers like Fien and Cotts and passing on real relief upgrades in the FA market.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Rzepczynski is projected to make $3 mil in arbitration, and wasn't that good against LHB last season (.255/.321/.340). He's better than Duensing, but having him on the roster presents the same issues as having Duensing, Fien, Boyer, Cotts, Thornton, etc. -- you're locking in mediocrity to fill a less important role, when you really need to add another quality arm capable of filling a more important role if needed (i.e. Jepsen, Sipp, Bastardo, etc.).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, Milone is out of options, and with over 3 years service time, he can now refuse an outright assignment to AAA even if he clears waivers (although maybe that's what you wish was different "in a perfect world"). I know I've made this non-tender argument about Fien, but I'm not quite sure I'd extend it to Milone yet. We're not likely to sign or acquire another SP this winter, so Milone's presence isn't preventing that, and while his value isn't high, I think he's easily tradeable as a LHSP making only $4.5 mil coming off a 106 ERA+, should we need to move him. (And I would be looking at trading a starter, especially if we can sign a reliever and give May another shot in the rotation.) I fear Fien, like Duensing before him, might simply be untradeable for awhile.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    By BA, Garza only reached #21. Liriano did indeed rocket to #6.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Fien has trade value, just like Burton had trade value, and Duensing, and Cotts, and Swarzak... If Fien had any meaningful trade value, he would be a better pitcher on the level of Jepsen and we wouldn't even be having this debate.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That is a little harsh. Park didn't get to negotiate the system that gave a single MLB team so much leverage in these negotiations. I don't care about his Korean team getting a cut, etc., but this old style posting system is definitely not fair to the players.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Given the difference in defensive position and age with Jung Ho Kang, and Kang's limited MLB resume thus far, it's hardly clear yet if teams were scared off by Park's potentially high price tag, or if that was more of a media mismeasurement.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. It does seem like we were more aggressive than other teams with our posting fee bid on Park, which is smart IF you actually want the player under this posting system. Of course, it the player ultimately isn't worth wanting, it's not really an inefficiency that other teams bid less...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not quite sure if that is true. Ryan Doumit averaged .261 and 16 HR in his two seasons here and wasn't particularly worth the $3.5 mil a year we guaranteed him. The only real value to this deal will be if he notably exceeds those numbers, and he obviously has a shot right now. Will be interesting to watch.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    "Far less accomplished"? These things from Nishioka's Wikipedia page sound like accomplishments (although I am admittedly unsure of "2010 NPB 27 Slug prize record"): 2× Japan Series champion (2005, 2010)5× NPB All-Star (2005–2008, 2010)3× NPB Best Nine Award (2005, 2007, 2010)3× NPB Golden Glove Award (2005, 2007, 2010)2× NPB stolen base leader (2005–2006)2010 NPB batting champion2010 NPB safe hit champion2010 NPB 27 Slug prize recordHe was also a 26 year old shortstop at the time. Compared to 29 year old 1B Park's Wikipedia accomplishments: 2× KBO MVP (2012–2013)3× KBO Golden Glove Award (2012–2014)4× KBO Home Run title (2012–2015)4× KBO RBI title (2012–2015)2× KBO Slugging Percentage title (2012–2013)2014 KBO All-Star Game MVP They are very different accomplishments, for sure, but they don't seem that different in quantity or quality (especially if you grade NBP as a better league).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember, he was locked into negotiating with only the Twins. Very hard to get a player-friendly deal under those circumstances. I expect if Korean players will be coming over here regularly, we will soon see reforms of their posting system, much like we have seen with Japan.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, you qualify May with "probably", Perkins deserves a qualifier too with the way he's finished the past two seasons, and Jepsen himself is only controlled one more year. Yet you want to gamble on all 3 of those guys being in the pen and healthy and effective, AND Fien being healthy and effective in front of them? How does spending ~$15 mil in the FA market on another Jepsen type reliever "not make any sense" for a team in this situation? I know this has come up on other threads, but I still don't get it at all. It seems like Twins fans have become a little too conditioned to seek a bargain if we're not willing to commit ~$5 mil annually for 3 years to help upgrade a dangerously weak bullpen.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Fien locked into a roster spot makes it very difficult to add another "7th or 8th inning guy" this winter, so you'd almost certainly see him in those situations again, potentially quite early in 2016, just as he has been used in the past. If you really think he should be exclusively a low-leverage, "6th inning" guy, there's really no sense locking him into a roster spot. We've seen in the past few years how locking those guys in takes away a lot of flexibility. I'd rather pay more to sign someone with the potential to be better (another Jepsen type), and if they are all healthy and performing well, not having enough high-leverage innings for them all is a good problem to have. And/or use the low-leverage spots to audition higher upside call-ups or waiver claims for potentially higher upside duty later -- we now have ~10 guys who are on the 40-man roster but potentially ticketed for AAA and need evaluation opportunities.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. If he gets $2.2 mil, he's pretty much locked into a roster spot as long as he doesn't implode like Stauffer. If we're going to lock veterans into bullpen spots, let's at least have them be Jepsen-level pitchers from now on, okay? If Plans A, B, and C don't work out for some reason and you are really desperate by August, you can almost certainly get another Fien (or another Cotts, or another Duensing) for nothing.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    In what world is Fien a trade candidate? Certainly not this offseason, probably not even in 2016 barring an unexpected level of performance. Relievers of his quality occasionally get moved, but for little or no return; they are not trade assets. Also, the Twins minor leaguers (the ones who did not already appear in the 2015 pen) won't be ready to start the 2016 season -- none even appeared in AAA in 2015, much less dominated AA. The goal shouldn't be temporary "protection" against that likelihood, the goal should be fielding an improved bullpen from day 1 so we're not desperately relying on those minor leaguers figuring it all out by mid-summer, or on the whims of the deadline trade market. Then, if one or more of those minor league arms really does figure it out, they could patch unexpected holes, or elevate our pen from good to great, or free up resources to trade. But you have to aim high now to achieve those goals, you can't go into 2016 with the same failed bullpen approach of the last few seasons.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, not offering Fien would signal a change. No more tolerating Duensing etc. every year because they happen to be under team control. Also, while a 1 year, $2.2 mil contract is less risky than a 3 year deal for a FA, I don't know if Fien offers the upside at this point to really make it a "better investment" from a performance/potential standpoint, which should be the goal of these contending Twins rather than simple risk avoidance.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    What would make more sense for Detroit? They've got commitments, some to still very good players (Cabrera, JD Martinez, plus Kinsler and Verlander finished up pretty well last year). They're not doomed to last place or anything. Doesn't really make sense to blow it all up (if that's even possible, given their commitments) or do little or nothing, that's a recipe for stagnation. Given their question marks, a $200 mil blockbuster contract might not make sense for these Tigers, but that's not what they signed here. They signed a very good pitcher to what looks like a perfectly reasonable deal. It may not be enough to put them back on top by itself, but without a doubt it improves the team, nothing wrong with that.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Clones, delivered by drones?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    You have very little evidence to support this statement thus far. Two of those 16 starts, May was removed after 3 innings for reasons outside his control -- hit by a comebacker in April, and then on a pitch count in his August spot start. He also got a late start on the season (recall he missed much of spring training to illness, and was optioned out for more work only to be recalled shortly thereafter to replace Nolasco). And he was a still a rookie who was on a protectively short leash -- a few times he was pulled when a veteran almost certainly would not have been (April 19, May 23 & 29, perhaps June 3, etc.) -- and he was moved to the bullpen before he could have reasonably earned a longer leash. May wasn't taking himself out of those games, he was being removed by a manager who routinely let Pelfrey and Santana exceed those pitch counts. (And I'm not saying the Twins were wrong to do that, May also only threw 143 innings overall in 2014, given his lack of MLB experience they were probably pacing him for the full 2015 season. I am just saying it greatly affected the small sample of data you are using to judge him.) You might be right that May is better as a pen weapon, but there just isn't enough good data to say he's not one of our 5 best starter right now.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the recap Seth! I didn't realize Pinto had passed up minor league free agency before he was added in 2012. I wonder why we wouldn't have added him to the 40-man roster a month earlier? If we thought he was worth protecting from Rule 5 on Nov. 20, he was certainly worth adding to 40-man roster on Oct. 20. Probably a function of our suspect farm systems during that period, rather than astute 40-man moves...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Further analysis: last year, BA published a similar list of 77 minor league guys, and still missed two picks (Odubel Herrera, arguably the best pick last year, and David Rollins). http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/notable-players-available-rule-5-draft/ They did feature 10 "most notable" guys at the top of the list, which included 4 eventual picks.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I can see that. On the other hand, the Twins seem to be taking the opposite approach with Taylor Rogers -- letting him continue to start in AAA, well down the SP depth chart, when it looked for all the world like he could help the bullpen last year...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    He's still on track to attempt it, according to a MLBTR report 2 weeks ago: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/nobuhiro-matsuda-free-agent-kenta-maeda-timing.html The odds must be exceptionally low now, but I'd pretty much be willing to sign him to a non-guaranteed minor league deal every year for the rest of his life.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    If you think you might DFA them after a brief MLB audition, perhaps they're not worth protecting on the 40-man all winter without the audition anyway.
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