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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The original Suzuki contract was fine, with Mauer out we needed catching depth. And even the over-reliance on Suzuki early that season, in the midst of his career year, was defensible too. But the extension was clearly terrible. Not because it was a financial burden or anything, but because it short-circuited any other attempts to address the position. Suzuki was the everyday starter down the stretch in 2014, and we made zero attempt to change that going into 2015. Basically, the commitment to Suzuki put TR in denial about our catcher needs going forward, a denial which took at least a year-plus to undo.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the Twins were ever banking on Pinto, except perhaps as a potential Mauer time-share partner pre-concussion (a Doumit replacement, if you will). They left him unprotected as a minor league free agent after 2012, gave him the most meager of looks in 2014, then extended Suzuki basically as soon as they could that season. Those latter two points are critical. At that point, Mauer was no longer an option, the Twins were rebuilding, yet they didn't invest anything in a viable starting catcher of the future, and in fact delayed any such attempts with their extension commitment to Suzuki. (At least until now, hopefully, with Murphy.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Difference is Jay was a college reliever. He's probably not going to be on a starting pitcher fast track through the minors. He probably won't reach AAA as quickly as Sale or the Cardinals pitchers, which will make it harder to predict if he could actually make the immediate jump to the MLB pen. Heck, if he is still starting come July, they will probably have to think about shutting him down due to an excess of innings rather than aggressively promoting him.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    To call up Jay early this season would be quite the rush, though, I don't think the Cardinals have quite done that. I think all of their examples already had success as starters at AAA before joining the MLB pen. Hard to see Jay on that path this year -- he's going to need significant starter innings at a lower level if there is any hope for him in that role. And from there, it might be very hard to gauge when he might be ready to skip up to the MLB pen (and risky because if he wasn't ready for the MLB pen, you'd be starting his option clock early).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't the Twins admit a few years ago that they weren't properly scouting for pitcher health in the draft? http://www.sportsbusinessnews.com/node/2020
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Then why do power arms on the free agent market often sign for as little as 2/11 (Mark Lowe)? Even Andrew Miller, arguably one of the best in the league, only signed for 4/36. It's obviously nice to have power bullpen arms, and they can help you win games, but it's not clear teams should be investing high draft picks in them, particularly with the Twins success rate in that department so far. Among the oft-cited Royals pen, none of them were drafted high as exclusive relievers.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    But he keeps his MLB salary and benefits that whole time. Obviously they'd rather just stick on one team's roster, but when that's not an option, I suspect the players prefer the DFA carousel to being outrighted immediately to AAA. After the Twins waived him in 2013, Alex Burnett managed to get over 2 more months on 40-man rosters, including some days of MLB service too. Not bad for a guy who was out of affiliated ball a few months later anyway.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    True, I misspoke about electing free agency. Of course, the player can both refuse the assignment AND not elect free agency, which is overwhelming the most common approach taken by MLB veterans in such situations: Nolasco will either stay on the Twins roster, get traded to another team's roster, or get released.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Few openings are ever "genuine" when you are dealing with the quality of players sent through waivers.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Nolasco refusing a minor league assignment and electing free agency would be the equivalent of releasing him, we would still owe him his full salary.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I think if Pressly stayed healthy, there's a decent chance we wouldn't have ponied up to add Jepsen, so I'm not sure it was much of a factor. Also, while generally effective, he still wasn't seeing many high-leverage spots, and was only sporting a 7.2 K/9 rate, a 3.9 BB/9, etc. He still profiles as more of a middle to back end reliever, which the Twins have no shortage of; he's got an option remaining, and I suspect we may use it.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if it is likely we will have another suspension and injury the first week of the season, though. The 2014 rotation lasted over a month, and after Deduno subbed for an epically bad Pelfrey, there were no other changes until almost midseason. Even in 2013, with a lot of marginal starters, the rotation was set for almost the first two months, save for Hendriks taking Diamond's first few turns after offseason surgery. In 2012, the opening rotation didn't see much change either until Liriano got demoted to the pen in mid-May.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure it's that big of a deal, a player can only be outrighted once without their consent anyway. If it happens to Achter, he will get to elect free agency after 2016 unless he is added back before then, regardless of where he lands on the merry go round. Also not sure it is good for the player. By the time he would be returned to the Twins, he may be further down the depth chart here than in Philly. And any attempt to disincentive a team from claiming him is bad (and removing the potential for outrighting would do just that). I think Achter would rather stay on a 40-man roster and get those benefits as long as possible, regardless of how many hats he has to wear in the process.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure the Twins don't need or want anything to do with contraction in the Twins hall of fame -- that was a self-created mess. As was much of the 1990s malaise (Don Beaver, Dave St Peter's cancer kid ad). We are all glad that the 2001-2002 teams put most of that nonsense in the rear view mirror, but the Twins organization bringing it up as some sort of hurdle they overcame would be the height of hypocrisy.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    This it? http://news.yahoo.com/mlb-lobby-trades-disappear-winter-meetings-014700664--spt.html
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Nobody is taking on 4 marginal 40-man guys in one trade, especially two out of options (Guerra and Pinto).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think McGee was really that available in July. The Rays were trying to move Jepsen, who was older, more expensive, had less team control remaining, and wasn't left-handed. I suspect the McGee price then is similar to the price now (high).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    What year do you think the winter meetings saw much bigger moves? I am curious, might be fun to read about.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Aguilera was actually re-signed to be a starting pitcher. The others you list pitched multiple seasons for the Twins, but actually originally signed here as minor league free agents. Swindell: https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1683&dat=19961219&id=E6UaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=Bi4EAAAAIBAJ&pg=2808,3479678&hl=en Bob Wells: http://apple.ease.lsoft.com/scripts/wa-PLUTO.exe?A2=ind9901&L=TWINS&P=28688 And Mulholland was on a minor league deal with Seattle, and "purchased" by the Twins on April 2, 2004: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mulhote01.shtml I also found no record of Bob Wells ever being traded. I suspect he re-signed for 2 years (2000-2001), and did find this record of an additional year extension being signed: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=min&year=2001&month=2 So I think the original claim stands.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    We're not really "linked" to McGee. There are general reports of trade discussions about him, but no one knows the teams involved. MLBTR then lists the Twins as "known to be looking for left-handed relief help" and not likely "to make a play for top-of-the-market free agent lefties." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/rays-jake-mcgee-trade.html From the source of the rumor, it sounds like the Twins would be competing against the Dodgers at least for McGee's services...
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know, there seemed to plenty of moves this week, even some pretty big ones. A quick scan of MLBTR shows 21 different teams making MLB trades or signings over the 3 days of the winter meetings, and that's not counting a few that made moves just before. A lot of relievers came off the board too.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it's likely, but that's the hypothetical posed by this thread. Simply put: if you release Nolasco, you get an open roster spot. If you make this hypothetical trade instead, you get Shields on effectively a 3/40 contract with a 4th year $14 mil option ($16 mil minus a $2 mil buyout I already included in the 3/40). I don't think you have to be particularly high on Shields to find the latter preferable to the former. (And if Shields opts out after 1 year, you actually save $4 mil from the trade, plus get a season of presumably plus pitching from Shields.) Of course, I agree that a straight-up trade like this is highly unlikely, which is all the more evidence this hypothetical favors the Twins greatly.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    RHP Craig Stammen, you mean? Probably not a bad target, although he hasn't pitched since surgery in April, and saw a drop in K rate and effectiveness prior to that in 2014. He's supposed to be 100% but maybe he takes a little time to get re-acclimated. He's also just shy of 6 years service so he'd be a free agent again after 2016 unless you extended him (no team control).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    It does look pretty bad, although at this point, Brett Lawrie's last two arbitration seasons weren't going to make much of a difference either way. Saving ~$10 mil might actually help the ledger for Oakland, at this point, more than playing Lawrie would have. The A's also still have Franklin Barreto from the deal, SS prospect, all the way up to #18 on MLB.com's midseason top 100 update (just ahead of Berrios at the time). It's extremely unlikely to ever be a win for Oakland or even a wash, but Barreto could save it from historical ignominy.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. It could effectively be getting Shields for 3/40 as a consolation prize for releasing Nolasco. Shields and his 2015 season are not perfect, but he's easily still an attractive asset at 3/40 which is why there is no way in heck that San Diego would agree to this deal, there are far better ways to acquire reclamation projects (and probably far better reclamation projects to target than Nolasco).
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