AlwaysinModeration

If this isn’t a thing on TD, it should be.

I know you did. I looked back at every draft since 2000 and I don’t think I found any. Was wondering if Delmon and Rickie Weeks ever played together.

My initial reaction to this article was to agree with you - he’s also a terrible defender! However, looking closer, Adell was, in fact, a terrible as a defender in 2020, when he was brought up too early, played some CF, as both other positions. He posted a -28.1 UZR/150 during his time in CF that year. However, after that, In 2021 and 2022 he didn’t play a single inning in CF. The result? Well, his defensive numbers since then haven’t actually been awful; in fact he posted a (slightly) positive UZR/150 in RF in 2021 and a (slightly) positive UZR/150 in LF in 2022. Of course, both of those numbers were negative for the opposite field in the respective years. If he starts posting OPS’s of 850+ like he did through his early minors, his defensive shortcomings can be overlooked. And hopefully his defense continues to trend in a better direction, and his offense does too. Worth a flier if the price isn’t too steep, for sure. I doubt Cole Sands would be enough for the Angels to cut bait, though—perhaps a Marco Raya, David Festa, or Brett Headrick might?

But hey, Luiz has 8 stolen bases! Thus was actually the first year he had enough ABs to qualify for the batting title. I’d certainly prefer the Twins extend him and see if he gets better as he enters his prime, which he may.

According to mlb.com rankings, Silva is the fourth best C prospect: Ethan Salas signed with Padres for $5.6mm (MLB #1 ranked for 2023 intl) Duno signed with the Reds for $3.1 million (MLB #5 ranked for 2023 intl) Gutierrez signed with the Mets for $1.9mm (MLB #27 ranked for 2023 intl)

Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, although I don’t think that’s what you meant.

Great analysis Parker. Looking forward to seeing him back on the mound later this year, and seeing a better slider. As for the extension, to me the conversation had to be like this: we traded a lot to get you for two years, and now we are only getting part of one. Let us get at least some of that lost time back by tacking on a year of free agency at a fair price - then you can go after your big paycheck.

Good article, Peter. Agree completely that Correa adds a lot of additional value beyond his contributions in the field and in the batter’s box. I think he will grow to appreciate the fact that he will only have two teams he has played for in his entire career. May he and Buck lead this team to great things over the next six+ years!

While both are from Venezuela, the answer seems to be no. From the former Twins’ pitcher’s Wikipedia page: “Silva resides in Medina, Minnesota, with his wife Maria Hermann, son Justin, born June 12, 2007, and daughter Gabriella, born September 8, 2008.” Undoubtedly a namesake for the Venezuelan-made-good, though!

I’m looking thought Rockies listings on MLB Trade Rumors, it seems clear that one thing the Rockies are looking for is a LH hitting OF, preferably a center fielder, so trading from the Twins’ [redundancy of? plethora of? stable of?] left handed outfielders to the Rockies makes even more sense. To top it off, the Rox appear stretched financially, so trading Marquez’ more expensive contract for Kepler’s cheaper one works too. The Rockies aren’t necessarily in “win now” mode, so maybe a deal would work even better with a pitching prospect or two thrown in for a current reliever? I doubt Daniel Bard would come back, but how about adding in Tyler Kinley (reunion!) for Festa and Headrick?

Thanks, Ted—hadn’t seen the full list before, or the dollar figures for Silva and Chivilli. Looks like the Twins are scouting Venezuela heavily—wonder if Arraez’ success has helped? Chivilli was ranked #38 by mlb, but elsewhere was listed top ten, so the higher signing amount makes sense. (One note—I think your link to the Jamie Cameron October piece is wrong.)

Here is what Dustin May might cost. Pretty steep price, in my view. More palatable, to me, would be German Marquez: Marquez fits the definition of “3.5 WAR”…but hasn’t reached that level since 2018. Not sure if 2022 showed a decline in performance or just a bad year, but I’d be interested in seeing how he fares outside of Colorado. He’s under contract through 2023 with a 2024 option. Edit to add: Marquez, unsurprisingly, has pretty marked home/road splits. Note 790 OPS at home, 699 OPS on the road; 1.40 WHIP at home, 1.18 WHIP at home. Not listed but HR/9 is 1.32 at home and 1.15 on the road. Get him out of Coors, see how he does! Plus, maybe Max thrives in Coors like Cuddyer and Morneau before him - I don’t think anyone around here would begrudge him success.

Honestly, the system is so messed up. Yesterday was arguably the most important day of the baseball calendar, when international prospects are gobbled up by the dozens with zero fanfare. Baseball America has the international signing tracker here: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-international-signing-agreements-tracker/?amphtml with Baltimore, Cleveland, Miami and Milwaukee have announced upwards of 30 players signed each. Given the uncertainty of signing 16 year olds, quantity seems a better strategy than “quality” - but who the hell knows? Signing Juan Soto or Fernando Tatis is a coup. Meanwhile, the Twins have signed six: Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba Hendry Chivilli, SS, Dominican Republic Carlos Silva, C, Venezuela Juan Hernandez, SS, Venezuela Jeicol Surumay, RHP, Venezuela Miguel Cordero, RHP, Venezuela Hope some of them are good…

Signing day. Here is the fangraphs board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0 and here is an article about the new class by Eric Longenhagen https://blogs.fangraphs.com/board-update-2023-international-amateur-prospects/ Civilly has a 45 future grade, which is the top grade (well, two have “45+“). Castro has a 40. Silva is not listed. He says “the international amateur arena is a procedural and ethical mess”, and I’d agree with that. I can’t believe they didn’t add an international draft into the new CBA. The fact that signing day is already a fait accompli and that agreements have been long in the making is nuts. Longenhagen says he is aware of half a dozen 2025 and 2026 players who have been given verbal commitments of over $3mm. Those are 14 year old kids!

By the way, Noah Miller is 15.

About damned time

If the Twins trade for Pablo López, he might stay for more than two years.

Yes

Aaron posted his annual top 40 prospect list on the Athletic on Monday, which means that it is now the 11th story in the list of stories on the Athletic’s Twins page. As the Athletic is subscription based, I’m not going to list the whole top 40 here, but I’ll list the top five and a couple of other interesting (at least to me) players on his list - and/or their locations on the list. He starts by noting that 5 of last year’s top 10 graduated - Duran, Ryan, Miranda, Winder and Celestino, and 11 of the top 25 from 2022 are graduated or gone from the org. 1. Brooks Lee: “switch-hitting shortstop many considered the country’s premier college bat” 2. Royce Lewis: “if something resembling [the early 2022] version of Lewis remains intact after another 12 months of rehab, the Twins will have a 24-year-old building block” 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez: “has as much upside as anyone in the Twins system and could be a consensus top-25 global prospect this time next year” 4. Matt Wallner: “even a batting average in the low .200s, combined with 30 homers and lots of walks, could make Wallner an impact bat, but expect plenty of swings and misses” 5. Austin Martin: “in just 12 months, the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft had gone from a consensus top-50 global prospect to being absent from most top-100 lists…[but] don’t write him off just yet” … 10. Yasser Mercedes: “elite bat speed and power-athleticism combination….one of the highest-upside prospects in the Twins’ system” … 14. Jordan Balazovic: “stock plummeted about as far as possible without a major arm injury involved… still just 24 years old…a huge question mark…but still has mid-rotation upside” … 29. Brett Headrick: “deception and command have gotten him this far, but to succeed as a starter in the majors his changeup needs to become a reliable weapon versus righty sluggers” … 36. Keoni Cavaco: “still just 21 years old — three months younger than 2022 first-rounder Brooks Lee … finished on a high note with a good September, but his overall game remains very raw” If you don’t have a subscription to the Athletic, it’s recommended. To read the rest of the top 40, click here: https://theathletic.com/4005153/2023/01/09/top-twins-prospects-brooks-lee/?source=user_shared_article

How about this offer? (Marlins could also bring back Nick’s brother Dee).

I just can’t see them trading a player after winning a batting title.

Define “accelerate.”

It’s up to 80% now, I tell you. But did Correa really tackle Boras into a hotel bed when he landed him the Mets “contract”? I might’ve had that reaction if it was the Yankees…or the White Sox.

Talks between the Twins and Boras re: Correa are “accelerating”….

Setting aside the apparent extremely deplorable things he did in his personal life that resulted in him being blackballed (and paid millions not to play by the Dodgers), Bauer has had a pretty interesting career: 1) pioneer in the use of slow-motion, high definition video to improve his pitching to elite levels 2) refusing to play along with the Scott Boras super agents of the world, negotiating his own contract / working with a friend (happened to be female, unusual in those circles) to go year to year for best contract instead of long-term/lower AAV (which has now backfired) 3) called out Gerrit Cole / Astros for cheating on spin rates, including personally demonstrating how easily it could done by spiking his own spin rates during one inning of a game. He seems to flaunt “doing things his own way” to the point of being insufferable and as a result has made a ton of enemies—teammates, coaches, etc. He’s very talented and would probably help the Twins, but I’d be very leery about even considering it. Again, that’s not even getting into the stuff that has gotten him DFAed by the Dodgers, etc. All of the personal / awful stuff would ratchet that leeriness towards the Twins getting involved x10.