AlwaysinModeration

Bring the Purple Rain!

They will tie the NFL record for fewest first downs in a game.

They are literally not going to use any of their timeouts.

108 yards. Plus the four sacks—do they have under 100 net yards.

I can’t believe they actually still ran on first down. And then threw another screen.

Run on first down here, right?

It’s nothing if not predictable.

And by good game plan....I hope to see a bit of creativity and a bit of aggressiveness on offense. Those last three drives in the fourth quarter against the Saints when they could have put the game away with some first downs were...pretty uninspired.

I’d say the Vikings have at least a 35-40% chance to win. Let’s hope the coaches have a good game plan, and some bounces go their way.

One thing I noticed about both Kepler and Garver last year was how they both seemed to elongate their follow-through forward through the point of contact. Instead of a natural spinning/wraparound follow-through (Sano is the classic example of the wraparound rotation on his follow-through), they seem to extend their hit plane up and forward. Rosario does it in an exaggerated fashion (always has), and Buxton seemed to do it a lot last year too. To me it seemed like these four guys were all trying to lengthen the amount of time that their bat stayed on the same plane through the hit zone. Am I imagining this, or is this something that others noticed as well? Edit: Kepler: Garver:

Fun exercise. Thanks for doing this. In my view, if you are talking about most valuable assets to an organization, service years factor large. Therefore, I don’t think Nelson Cruz, at age 40, signed for one season, should be in this list. He could put up the same numbers as last year, but it’s unlikely. Odorizzi falls in the same realm—although if he were signed to a Jose Abreu-like extension, he could easily turn into a much more valuable asset. I think I’d view Lewis Thorpe and Keoni Cavaco as more valuable assets for the organization. Honestly, take a look at Thorpe’s last three years. 10-11K/9, under 3 BB/9, FIP of 3.7 or under. And this is with high BABIP. I think he should be in the rotation to start the year, and could stick. Cavaco is obviously a wildcard, with a rocky small sample first year. But if he has a good year, he shoots up their boards (while Cruz and Odorizzi are gone.)

Didn’t see that, thank you.

Hmmm. Fair point.

Taking it with a grain of salt, but that’s a fun report. Except for the second-to-last bullet point.

Just want to note that 4/92 is closer to 100 than 85. Donaldson made 23 each of the past two years, and 4/92 is 23/year. Also, the Nats could have a higher dollar offer with lots of money defered. (This is assuming everything in that report is accurate.)

You read that in a different thread, an anonymous, random tweet from an account called “AtlantaBaseballInsider”, who insisted that Donaldson had agreed to the deal Friday afternoon, and it would be announced Monday evening after Donaldson returned from vacation. It doesn’t seem to have held water, considering the fact that it is now Tuesday evening, he isn’t signed, and various reports are saying the Nats and Twins are still somewhat in the mix.

Might want to read Doogie’s tweet a bit closer, as it said the opposite.

Certainly seems more focused on the money than his preferred destination, that’s for sure. Perhaps they should just go ahead and show him the money.

Piecing together a few things that have been reported or that we think we know: 1. The Twins have made Donaldson a four-year offer. 2. Donaldson played in Atlanta last year, enjoyed his time there, is from the south, and wanted to give Atlanta a chance to field a competitive offer after he tested the market. 3. The third main suitor, the Nats, have moved on, signing several other infielders and relievers, using up roster spots and resources they were saving for Donaldson. 4. Atlanta has now made a four year deal. 5. AFTER reviewing the received four-year deals, Donaldson has indicated that 4/110 would be a contract offer that would get it done. 6. Twins front office staff, who have indicated they have made a competitive / the highest offer, are commenting that Donaldson doesn’t want to sign with Minnesota. 7. Atlanta is currently $7mm over their highest opening day payroll ever. 8. He hasn’t signed yet. From all of this, it seems clear that the Twins have an offer (4/95?) that is the top offer, and decently more than the Braves’ offer (4/80?), yet a fair amount less than 4/110. But since he hasn’t accepted their offer, the Twins are frustrated he won’t just sign with them already. They could raise their offer, but they’d be bidding against themselves. My point is that this is still a fluid situation. Donaldson could relent and take the Twins’ offer. The Braves could increase their offer to the acceptable range. Another team could swoop in. Or the Twins could relent and add a bit to their offer (4/100, 4/104?), which would give Donaldson cover to say “I was interested in staying in Atlanta, but Minnesota made me an offer I couldn’t refuse.” If those four outcomes, the Twins sign Donaldson is two of them. This isn’t over.

Tick, tick....

I think Donaldson should bat leadoff.

I think the Nats are out on Donaldson. In the last day or so they have signed Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera in the infield, and Will Harris in the bullpen. They are to the point where signing Donaldson would put them over the luxury tax. More importantly, they have the following infielders: Howie Kendrick, Starlin Castro, Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera, and top prospect Carter Kieboom. Plus I can’t believe that they don’t bring back Ryan Zimmerman if he wants to play another year. The Nats have moved on from Donaldson. They are spending their remaining FA budget and roster space on other players. So hopefully that means it is down to Atlanta and Minnesota. And Atlanta is already sitting at $142mm in payroll (last year $135mm). Are they going more than $30mm over last year’s budget? Edit to add: Atlanta has never had a season-opening payroll of over $122mm before.

A lot of the “tea leaves” reading have assumed that because he said he would let Atlanta match any offer, and he is from the south, that he prefers Atlanta. I think a better way of looking at it would be he liked Atlanta just fine, but really he was telling them—I’m exploring the market, but I won’t sign a contract without extending you the courtesy of checking back with you. That doesn’t mean, you match it, and I’m staying in Atlanta. It just means he’d loop back in with them before signing elsewhere.

I agree with you, Doc. If the Braves had matched the Twins’ offer, he’d have signed with the Braves already. And like I said, the Braves are already over last year’s payroll. Maybe the Braves offered 4/80, while the Twins are at 4/92. The biggest challenge is the Nats swooping in. They let Rendon walk, but their window is now, with neither Scherzer and Strasburg getting any younger, so getting a couple of good years of Donaldson makes sense. Also, they will need to throw Zimmerman a few million as well, so signing Donaldson could actually push them over the luxury tax.

And actually the Nats are $24mm under the luxury tax—suspiciously near what Donaldson is asking for. Meanwhile, the Braves are $7mm over last year’s payroll already. If you want to play this right, here is the way to do it: In order to stay under the luxury tax for this coming year, the Twins are limited to offering Josh Donaldson only $89million for 2020. They can’t go any higher than that.