AlwaysinModeration

Come on, man. At least play along!

You had me at “Yankees contracted.”

Plus the Nats just spent the rest of their money on Will Harris, so they can’t afford Donaldson!

Does the victor need to do a curtains call?

This is a strangely optimistic (and frankly, reasonable) take that has no business around these parts.

There is one thing the Twins have over the Braves and Nats - the DH position. After this year, the Twins will have lots of DH ABs to offer. Would have to think that could be a consideration.

Wow. David Stern and Don Larsen. (Point of clarification—these two cannot be added to our lists, obviously?)

Yes, the statcast data average exit velocity is for all balls hit, including ground balls, pop ups, homeruns, and even lineouts. You can see average launch angle too. http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-hit-velo And sure, average exit velocity PLUS launch angle would provide more detail. The point I was making by posting that top ten list, though, is that hard hit balls are in and of themselves extremely valuable as they overwhelming result in hits, usually extra-base hits, and home runs. The more hard hit balls, the better. I’m pretty sure Cruz, Cron and Schoop were targeted last year at least in part because of their ability to consistently hit the ball hard. If the Twins succeed in signing Donaldson, that would fit the pattern.

Looking at the stat cast leaderboard of hard hit balls in 2019, limiting to players with at least 100 “events”, here is the top 10 average exit velocity: 1. Judge, 96.7mph 2. Gallo, 96.2 3. Sano, 95.2 4. Cruz, 94.5 5. Schwarber, 94.5 6. Donaldson, 94.0 7. Yelich, 93.9 8. Fr. Reyes, 93.8 9. Stanton, 93.8 10. Moncada, 93.6

Looking at Donaldson’s stats are remarkable. He’s posted an 883 OPS or above five out of the last seven seasons. He’s posted WAR of 5 or above in six of the last seven seasons, and 6+ WAR in five of the last seven seasons, including last year. (Sano has zero; his max WAR is 3.1.) Trying to figure out a reasonable contract for him, if he is a 4 WAR player going forward, which seems conservative, the standard calculations for a player are to expect a 0.5 WAR decline per year. So four years equals 4+3.5+3+2.5=13 WAR. At $9mm per WAR, a contract should be 4/117mm. At a more conservative $8mm/WAR, his contract would be 4/104. MLBTradeRumors projected him to get 3/75. He’s made $23/year the last two years. 23x4=92, so maybe the Twins have offered him a 4/92 contract. I’ll note that the Twins signed what turned out to be the best hitter of the offseason last year at about this time, an old guy who hits the ball extremely hard, who the Twins weren’t expected to sign (or outbid other teams for). Could history repeat itself?

Took my three sons to see it on Monday. I thought it was fun.

Oh, I forgot: 3. Sign Donaldson.

Two points: 1. Homer Bailey played his whole career with Cincinnati. He was lousy from 2016-2018, posting ERAs over 6. However, his BABIP was 452, 350 and 331 those seasons. This past season was his first season with a new team, first with KC and then with Oakland. He changed his pitch mix, adding in nearly 25% splitters. When he got to Oakland, both his fastball and his splitter were above average pitches. This is notable for a few reasons; one, his fastball had been terrible for the five previous seasons in Cincinnati; two, new pitching coaches obviously had some new ideas for him in terms of pitches and pitch mix that worked; and three, Wes Johnson could have additional new ideas to help him with velocity and pitch mix. The fact that he was targeted by the Twins might mean they think there is some upside. 2. Does Rich Hill get his incentives if they are reached during the playoffs? Might be significant if he isn’t back until post All-Star break.

This seems pretty reasonable, although I would see 25/20/15 rather than 30/20/10.

I definitely don’t see them signing three SPs. I am skeptical that they would even sign two of these guys. However, it seems quite reasonable to expect them to sign one of them, likely either Walker or Wood (my preference, as stated on the Taijuan Walker thread, is Walker). I also think that signing would go nicely with either a Donaldson signing or a trade for David Price.

Seriously, this bothers me more than missing out on Ryu, for some reason. EE kills the Twins.

It kind of looks like the Front Office agreed. Ryu might be going downhill fast in years 3-4 of the deal Toronto just signed. If the Red Sox throw in $12mm/ year on Price, the Twins can get him for 3/60, minimizing their exposure to the terrible tail end of a deal. Price also has a longer track record of success than Ryu. Plus the Red Sox are motivated to shed payroll, as has been noted elsewhere, they might throw something else (prospects) in.

Um, asking for a friend. What are the chances Taijuan Walker pitches better than Ryu in 2020?

Wait, Bartolo Colón is still available?

I looked up info on Baseball Savant. They list his pitch mix a bit differently: “Walker relies on 3 pitches. Four Seamer (66.7%), Split Finger (26.7%), Cutter (6.7%).” The curveball is listed fourth, about the same as the cutter. They also list spin rates; his four-seamer just under 2200rpm, while his curve and cutter are both just shy of 2400rpm. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/taijuan-walker-592836?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

You may be right, maybe it only take two years, 8-10, or a one-year deal for 4-5? I’d almost prefer a two-year deal, in case he does well this year.

I didn’t see a thread on Taijuan Walker, so I wanted to put his name out there as a possible target for the Twins this offseason. Here is a bit of background on the guy: Drafted in 2010 out of high school, Walker spent several years in the Mariners system, first as one of their top prospects, and then getting about 350IP in their rotation from 2013-16. He was then traded to Arizona, along with Ketel Marte, for Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger. He has been a Diamondback from 2017-2019, but only pitched one full season in 2017 for them, before needing TJ surgery in April 2018. He made $5mm in 2019 despite not pitching for the DBacks at all, and then was non-tendered earlier this month rather than them paying him (perhaps $7/8mm in arbitration?). There has been one report a couple of days ago that the Mariners are interested in bringing him back. Over his career, Walker’s got a 8.1K/9, 2.8BB/9, 43%GB, 1.2HR/9, 3.95ERA and 1.25WHIP. His career slash line against is 247/310/415, for an 726OPS. He fares almost exactly the same against righties (731OPS) and lefties (721OPS). His pitch mix is: —93-94mph FB (60%) —88-89mph Change (15-20%) —75mph Curve (10-15%) and —86mph Slider (10%) He used to throw a cutter with the Mariners, but the Diamondbacks had him ditch that pitch and start throwing a slider. His fastball has graded out as his best pitch (but never great) while none of his other offerings have graded out as above average. With all of that said, there are a number of reasons why I think that the Twins should consider taking a shot at signing this guy: 1. He’s only 27 (August birthday). He didn’t play at all at 25 or 26 due to the TJ surgery, meaning he hasn’t even really hit his prime years yet. 2. He is a former top prospect, drafted in 2010 in the first round (43rd overall) as a high schooler, rising in national rankings to as high as #20 overall by Baseball America in 2012. 3. He throws 93-94mph Perhaps working with Wes Johnson would allow him to add a tick to his fastball, like Odorizzi, Perez, Duffey, May and Littel did last year. 4. He has a nice mix of pitches already, so I’d similarly like to see whether the Twins’ pitching staff could determine a more effective pitching usage pattern for him. Maybe Walker should bring back that cutter, or focus more on one of his pitches than he has been, etc. 5. He’s pretty cheap—I would think the Twins could sign him for, let’s say, a 2-year, $12mm deal, with maybe an option year for $10mm more. 6. If nothing else, he could potentially move to the bullpen. All in all, he looks like a player who could have a decent amount of upside. The kind of “post-hype” player who the Twins could get in the system at a young age for cheap, and see what the Twins could do to bring out some of his untapped potential. Don’t get me wrong, going after Taijuan Walker wouldn’t or shouldn’t be in place of a Ryu signing (which I am expecting any day now). But I’d like to know what others might think. Should the Twins take a chance on bringing Walker onboard?

I loved Big Sexy. And if he resigns with the Twins, there will still be someone older than me playing in MLB, thus keeping my window of opportunity open. Wait a second, Denny Hocking is still available?

My initial reaction was pretty negative, but after reading a bit about his numbers and his ability to get lefties out, I’m more optimistic about it.

Thank you. Glad that you could get that take care of.