AlwaysinModeration

I’m just surprised that no other team offered more than $35mm for one year.

Landing the platinum glove winner and legit MVP candidate at the most important position on the field on a one-year deal for his age 27 season, AND keeping the payroll under last years total payroll - that is some serious sorcery! Thank you Scott Boras - it is clear that Correa switching agents mid-winter factored into him agreeing to a one-year deal.

Dan Hayes of the Athletic reports the Twins have been in touch with Story’s agent. MLB Trade Rumors had projected Story would get six years, $126mm. Maybe the Twins could get him for 5/110? With Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa gone, the left side of the infield is wide open…for Jose Miranda and Trevor Story (and some Gio Urshela.) Story posted a (BBRef) 4.2 WAR last year and 6+ WAR in 2 of his 6 seasons, finishing top 11 in the MVP voting in 2018, 2019 and 2020. He excels at defense and offensively as well. if the Twins sign Story, the madness of the past three days begins to make a whole lot more sense…

Akil Baddoo and Jose Miranda were both left unprotected in the December 2020 Rule 5 draft, and both were rumored to get selected. So every single MLB could have snagged Miranda and they whiffed. Twins got lucky. Looking forward to seeing Miranda rise up and take his shot in the big leagues this year.

Yes, absolutely draft him is he falls to 8. This is a top of the rotation talent that the Twins might only be getting a chance at because of some weird circumstances. Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon, Tyler Jay were drafted higher than 8, none of them had the #1 overall pick upside of Rocker. And look at those guys now. On the flip side, Trea Turner was a #1 overall upside guy who tumbled, and the Twins passed. Borasfear is misplaced and over the top. If he leaves in free agency as soon as he can (which will be in 8-9 years at the earliest) that means that we struck gold with this draft pick.

Love the enthusiasm you have for Winder, Matt, and it seems warranted. The only thing you left out of the write-up is this big point: Winder is already 25 years old. He needs a crack in the rotation sooner rather than later. Ober 26 Ryan 25 Winder 25 Duran 24 Balazovic 23

I thought I saw you at that game Chachi.

My priorities are always in order.

I still have a bone to pick with Tim Beckham. Several years ago I was sitting in the club level behind home plate, and Beckham fouled a ball straight back to me. I nonchalantly caught it barehanded, while not spilling my nachos I was holding in my other hand. The woman behind me freaked out because the ball seemed like it was coming right at her. Unfortunately Beckham hit a home run on the next pitch, and any chance of getting on camera with a replay of my catch was gone. A fan came up to me later that the radio announcers had exclaimed about the catch and that I had saved the woman behind me.

Or maybe Misael Urbina.

My vote is for Simeon Woods-Richardson

That was clearly a witty and incisive rejoinder to a completely different post, which remarkably proved the point!

I just think Johan might have regrets looking back. Does he ever think—I could have signed for $20mm/per year to stay with the Twins and stayed with this organization that I liked (and still like) my whole career - and if I had done so, my career might have turned out quite differently in many respects.

You are likely right on Duran needing more time, but he should be knocking on the door and deserves a chance. Dobnak, on the other hand, I am not eager to see back in the rotation at all.

Fair that my suggestion is likely overly reliant on inexperienced pitchers. But what jumps out to me is that the organization had three legit starting pitchers options age 25-26 (Ryan, Ober, Winder), two at age 24 (Duran, Canterino), and Balazovic at 23 - and Woods-Richardson only 21. It looks like a real pipeline. This article notes that the average debut age for MLB pitchers over recent years is 24.8 years old, and their velocity peaks, and starts to decline, at 25-26 years old: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/09/the-makeup-of-a-pitcher-debuting-in-the-major-leagues/ I think it is likely the Twins get another pitcher before the new season. But I’d argue that getting 2-3 additional starters (especially if they are in the mold of the Shoemaker/Happ type, although I would guess no one is arguing for that) will wind up blocking good young arms from getting a shot.

If the season started tomorrow, what would the rotation be? I think it’s this: 1. Ryan 25 yrs old, top level reached: MLB, 2021 stats: 10.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.79 WHIP, 4.05 ERA 5.4 H/9, 1.4 HR/9 2. Ober 26 yrs old, top level reached: MLB, 2021 stats: 9.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP, 4.19 ERA 9.0 H/9, 1.9 HR/9 3. Winder 25 yrs old, top level reached: AAA, Minors stats: 9.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP, 3.74 ERA 8.4 H/9, 1.1 HR/9 4. Duran 24 yrs old, top level reached: AAA, Minors stats: 8.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.99 ERA 8.4 H/9, 0.6 HR/9 5. Bundy 29 yrs old, top level reached: MLB, MLB stats: 8.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.31 WHIP, 4.72 ERA 8.8 H/9, 1.6 HR/9 Then, in the wings Balazovic 23 yrs old, top level reached: AA, Minors stats: 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP, 3.41 ERA 8.1 H/9, 0.6 HR/9 Canterino 24 yrs old, top level reached: A+, Minors stats: 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.98 WHIP, 2.96 ERA 5.9 H/9, 0.8 HR/9 Woods-Richardson 21 yrs old, top level reached: AA, Minors stats: 11.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.24 WHIP, 4.21 ERA 8.1 H/9, 0.6 HR/9 Maeda is also likely to come back late in 2022. Now, would I mind a free agent signing like Carlos Rodon? No. But that’s not a terrible group of pitchers as of now, with four of them in the 24-26 age range. Not convinced the Twins need to sign 2-3 starting pitchers on the free agent market. Would rather see them sign one pitcher and then use additional $ towards upgrading the line-up.

I think the simple answer to this question is “because he went to NY.” Hindsight is 20/20, but if Johan had to do it all over again, he almost undoubtedly would have signed an extension and stayed a Twin for his whole career. A lot could have unfolded differently had he made that choice, including post-season success and a HOF plaque.

Not being within a whiff of the postseason all year vs losing in the postseason in heartbreaking fashion.

Being “linked” to a player is useful in the sense that usually a player signs with a team they are linked with, as opposed to a team with no linkage reported.

Another possible player to look at would be ARod. From 2003 to 2009 (age 27-33) he won three MVP awards while earning $175mm guaranteed. From 2004 to 2009 he only won two MVPs while earning $186mm, and he was locked in to long-term guarantees at $33mm/year through 30s. If Buck wins 2-3 MVP awards, the deal will be a huge steal without the typical albatross contract accompanying that kind of performance.

In the scenario you describe, Buxton plays full-time for the next seven years and wins seven MVPs. From 2015 to 2021, Mike Trout won 3 MVP awards while earning $187mm guaranteed (including his last couple of arbitration years, I believe), with the Angels on the hook for a massive guaranteed contract for him at $37mm/year for the next decade or so. So yeah, seven consecutive MVPs at $25mm per year, with no financial commitment beyond those MVP years is VERY team friendly. We should be so lucky that Buck achieves all of those incentives. He will have out-performed Trout at his peak.

Assuming they tender Cotton after going after him as a reclamation project. Minaya and Coulombe are both marginal players at the fringe of the roster. Ok to tender them, but, if, say, they could sign Matthew Boyd for $6mm (after the Tigers non-tender him) I’d prefer taking a flyer on him over either of them on the 40-man, I think.

I’m impressed Gibson-Long could pitch so well while wearing those plaid uni.

The Twins chose Ralph Garza Jr over de Leon, who just signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox. For some reason Darren Woodson was following his signing closely, tweeting which teams showed interest (but not the Twins).

I think they bought low on Simeon Wood-Richardson, not Martin.