AlwaysinModeration

SD already traded their C depth (Caratini). But Larnach for Paddack seems in play. If Rodgers is included in the deal…there needs to be more Gore.

From Do-Hyoung Park’s article: “Twins manager Rocco Baldelli previously indicated that a change in the schedule will not change his choice for Opening Day starter, with rookie right-hander Joe Ryan still in line to toe the rubber as scheduled.”

What would Lamet cost?

The reason I posted this discussion forum was twofold: 1) Padres stockpile of SP and C and 2) @TheLeviathan clamoring for the Twins to trade for Lamet. Lamet is not even mentioned in write-ups on the SD rotation. I took a look at Lamet’s track record. I actually pulled up a comparison on BBref to Jose Berrios. Other than having gotten about half the playing time as Berrios, and much higher walks, Lamet is on par or better than Berrios on a lot of key metrics; same career ERA+, better career FIP, lower career H/9, higher career K/9. Lamet is arb eligible through 2023. What would be a reasonable trade for him? And @jimbo92107 —I am actually quite inclined to agree with you about the young pitching prospects coming in for the Twins. Just think this might be an opportunity the Twins should explore.

He even makes me doubt Coloumbe!

After the Archer signing, I was fairly certain the Twins were done dealing for this off-season, as the Oakland trade talks seemed to have stalled. However, yesterday the As DID wind up trading Manaea, to a somewhat surprising destination - the San Diego Padres. Why is it surprising that the Padres were the team to acquire Manaea (for an affordable price, the 12th and 24th ranked prospects in the Padres system? Because look at the Padres’ starting rotation: Yu Darvish Blake Snell Joe Musgrove Mike Clevinger Chris Paddack Nick Martinez and now Sean Manaea, too. That seems like seven pitchers for five rotation spots. But wait, there’s more. Note that they have: (working back from injury) Dinelson Lamet (top prospect/top 10 pick) Ryan Weathers (shine has come off the rising star of former top prospect) Mackenzie Gore Starting pitching depth is not the only thing the Padres have that the Twins need. They also have four viable catchers on their 40-man roster, including Austin Nola Victor Caratini (top prospect) Luis Campesano (recently acquired) Jorge Alfaro. The Padres are looking for outfielders. They’ve apparently explored trading for Brian Reynolds of the Pirates (for a potential price of Paddack, Weathers, and likely more), but that hasn’t materialized. It seems like the two teams match up well in terms of a trade, and even more so after the Padres added yet another starter. The Twins have outfield options that they could send to San Diego, such as Max Kepler or Trevor Larnach, or even Luiz Arraez, who would immediately take on a Tony Gwynn like sheen in San Diego. For what it’s worth, the site Baseball Trade Values has the following values: Arraez 27.6 Kepler 23.6 Larnach 22.6 SD SPs Paddack 17.4 Gore 14.1 Manaea 14.1 Weathers 10.1 Lamet 1.5 SD Cs Campusano 22.2 Caratini 1.9 It seems feasible to me that they could match up. Maybe Gore, Lamet and Caratini for Kepler and a Twins prospect or two? Or maybe Larnach for Paddack straight up? What do people think is a realistic trade?

I don’t think Winder and Duran qualify, as they are simply top prospects. Seems like Smeltzer is the best choice as a surprise non 40 guy to make it on the opening day roster.

I was surprised to plug this trade into Baseball Trade Values: Kepler for Dinelson Lamet and Mackenzie Gore ….and see that the Twins would be overpaying 23.6 to 15.6.

Isn’t this is age 28 season?

Let’s see, grading the off-season? 1. Byron Buxton was not traded. Instead, he will be a Twin his whole career. On a below-market, incentive-laden deal, betting on himself to be healthy and productive. 2. Screwed the Yankees out of signing the best free agent in the league. Oh, and signed him themselves; one year, in his 27 year old season, MVP level player on both sides of the ball. I repeat, signed a free agent, MVP candidate in his prime at the most important position, for only a one-year deal. (When has that ever happened, not just the Twins, for any team?) 3. Traded 1.5 years of Jose Berrios plus Chase Petty for two years of Sonny Gray plus Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson. 4. Took fliers on Chris Archer, Gary Sanchez, Dylan Bundy, and Gio Urshela. All have been good in the past. These are lottery tickets, but one - or more -could feasibly hit. 5. (This should probably be 1 or 2). Did NOT trade any top prospects. Lewis, Martin, Winder, Balazovic, Miranda, Canterino and Duran look poised to contribute significantly to the team in the near future / for the next half a dozen years, with none of their paths blocked by long term obstacles. My grade: A resounding A.

I think this may the first opening day of one for Joe Ryan, but not in a bad way. I think he’ll be good…but there may be better options next year and beyond.

From Dan Hayes’ Athletic article: “We stayed in contact with Chris over the last few weeks as he was building up his workload and showcasing himself,” Falvey said. “Being able to track his pitches and get the velos and TrackMan, see his video, and know where he’s at in his progression was a big part of this one. As we near Opening Day, it was important that we consider readiness if we were going to add a free agent and Chris comes in tracking pretty closely with our starters in terms of volume.”

Very much on board with this move. Archer has been unlucky with batting average on balls in play from 2017-2019, with marks of 325, 339 and 304. If that number comes back down under 300 as it should, he will do better than his numbers in 2017-2019 look. He needs to keep his hits below a hit per inning to be successful, I think. His home run rates and walk rates are a bit concerning, though, with both higher than his usual in 2019 and the short stint in 2021. Perhaps pitching in Pittsburgh was a factor in that? He posted 12 WAR over the 2013-2017 seasons, about 2.4 per season. I don’t think he’ll get back to that level, but if he is healthy, he could certainly be added value, such as 1.0-1.5 WAR. Not high upside, but there is some upside. I would have been fine with Cueto as the signing - I’m happier that they chose Archer instead. And I like the incentives and the 2023 option too.

First person to point out Winder isn’t getting any younger. I say start him in the rotation.

Did she want you to be wealthier, wiser, or taller?

There are only 17 position players on the 40-man. Of those, I’d start Lewis and Celestino at St. Paul. It’s also start Miranda at St. Paul for the first month, meaning both Rooker and Larnach would be position players 13 and 14. As the OP question of third and fourth OF, I’d say Kiriloff, Larnach and Kepler all get starts at corner OF, as well as some for Rooker, with Arraez and Gordon as sometimes options. CF back-up is Kepler or Gordon, but I hope Buck earns all of his incentives and plays every day.

Also filed under “hard to imagine” - the guy on the right gets paid millions to throw a baseball - and started a playoff game at Yankee Stadium.

Wow, there are a lot of grumpy posters around here. Are y’all really that upset about not having “pure” five hour extra inning games? It’s not really that big of a deal.

That was the implication, yes.

Whoa. Randy Dobnak and Jhon Romero were both born on January 17, 1995. Was there a rule in the new CBA about that? I looked over Romero’s career minor league numbers. He looks pretty good, and was excellent last year in AA and AAA. I don’t see why the Twins wouldn’t want to keep him on the roster, now that they’ve got him. Definitely a chance to contribute to the bullpen.

I’d like to see the Twins work out a one- or two-year extension with Sean Manaea.

If the rotation is Gray - Bundy - Ober - Ryan - Cueto and then Winder and Balazovic get an opportunity to start later on this year, and then Maeda comes back in the second half of the season….I think that works. Would I prefer a trade for Montas? Maybe, but if the cost is either Lewis or Martin, plus Winder or Balazovic, I think I’d pass on that. I’m thinking “be careful what you wish for” and people might have misgivings if a trade comes to fruition at the actual cost.

I’m fine letting Duran eat whatever he wants to, so long as he doesn’t Bartolo on us. Also think he has a realistic shot at starting the season in the bullpen. I’d think that Winder and Balazovic might be ahead of Duran in terms of chances to get a start. But who knows, let’s just let it play out and see what happens.

He might not opt out, it’s true, but I think it is highly likely that he does, not only for the Boras angle but also because he’ll want to go into next offseason as the top option and have more buyers driving his market. That does lead me to the ONE quibble I can think of with this deal. I think that a deal of 35/37/39 (or 40) might have been more likely to get him for more than one year. Minor, minor quibble, though.