Parker Hageman

Phil Hughes has been somewhat of an indecisive pitcher over his career when it comes to his repertoire. Year in and year out, there has been an inability to choose a secondary pitch. While it has mainly been a big, slow curve, it has seen several variations followed by abandonment in 2013 in favor of a slider. Hughes’ Year of the Slider produced mixed results as opponents struggled against his new weapon in the season’s first-half, hitting just .160 off it, but then the competition zeroed in and smashed it around to the tune of .360 in the last half of the year. This spring, after a year of opting for the hard slider, 2014 will be the Return of the Curve (also a great follow-up single for Mark Morrison). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If you google “Phil Hughes curveball”, you will find several pieces dating back to 2009 that are dedicated to his bender. When Hughes was one of the game’s top prospects in the Yankees’ farm system, Baseball America raved about curveball. Prior to the 2007 season, as River Avenue Blues cited in 2010, Baseball America’s prospectors were elated when Hughes decided to forget the slider for the big curve: The bipolar relationship with his curveball followed him throughout his major league career as well. In 2009, the Yankees asked him to change his curve from the low-70s loop for a more “power curve” as Hughes described it. It would be fashioned off the same curve that Mike Mussina and AJ Burnett threw at that time, with the same arm speed as his fastball. After averaging 71 and 72-miles per hour on the curve in 2007 and 2008, respectively, he was averaging 77 on the curve in 2009. Two years later in 2011, Hughes was again trying to reinvent his curve. After not getting the results he wanted on the pitch, Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild made the suggestion to switch his grip from the knuckle or spike-curve to a more standard curve grip. The reasoning was that Hughes felt opponents were tracking the pitch out of his hand, and this change would give him that harder break the Yankees believed would benefit him. In 2012, he admitted to throwing two variations of the pitch, one from a different arm slot to change things up. Last year, his concern that hitters were picking up the curve out of his hand forced him,at the behest of the Yankees, towards the slider to allow him to throw more east-west across the strike zone. Overall, the curve never became the big weapon that Baseball America projected almost a decade ago. Since 2009, only 105 of his 575 strikeouts have come on his curve -- a vast majority these have come on the fastball (337). Part of that is simply a pitch selection decision, since he threw his fastball three times more often in two strike counts. Is that because of lack of faith in his secondary pitch or just knowing his fastball is superior? Did the Yankees’ constant tinkering add to that as well? In addition to returning to the curve, it also appears Hughes will be using the spike-curve again (as seen in his Twins spring training debut photo above). With the exception of the 2011 alteration to the standard grip, Hughes has favored this variation over his career. What’s more, from 2009 to the end of 2012, ESPN/tru media’s pitch database shows that his curve has dropped -8.2 inches, one of the biggest drops in the game. That has not equaled success, to be sure, as his well-hit average of .174 has been one of the highest among qualified starters (and well above the curveball average of .137). The Twins are eager to see if Hughes can rekindle the curve, believing the change in speed will help him overall. We don’t know how it will work, but we know that Hughes has been down this road before with mixed results.

This week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode featured a newly married Parker Hageman from Twins Daily filling in as co-host and topics included Miguel Sano needing Tommy John elbow surgery and what it means for his future, Johan Santana's sad comeback, Josmil Pinto's weight issues, technical difficulties, Bud Lights vs. Old Fashioneds, cop listeners, the history of Tommy John surgery, over/under 70.5 wins in 2014, Florida weddings, and being way too explicit. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

So the Twins Daily official Spring Training coverage begins next week when John Bonnes touches down in Fort Myers. However, last week I had the privilege -- nay -- honor of getting a tour of Hammond Stadium’s updates with my family. While in Florida for my -- ahem -- nuptials (sorry ladies), we made a pit stop at the Twins’ spring training facilities and were treated to a walk-through of the activities, which included the catchers’ drills on the backfield. Thanks to our photographer (and my cousin) Will Sandstad, we came away with some wonderful action shots of the practice session. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For more thoughts and reactions on the drills and the new additions to the stadium, please listen to the podcast below (warning: some adult language).

The Twins have released a statement today from Terry Ryan who says that he will miss at least the beginning portion of spring training because of cancer that is considered treatable. Ryan will undergo treatment at the Mayo Clinic for Squamous Cell Carcinoma after a biopsy of a lump on his neck was determined to be cancerous. Dr. Vijay Eyunni told the media Monday afternoon that the cancer was sourced to his lymph nodes and not skin cancer as previously reported. Here is the entirety of Ryan's statement: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] According to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger, Ryan will undergo surgery tomorrow and the hopes are that a combination of surgery and radiation treatment will eliminate the cancer. All the best to Terry Ryan and his family.

We were introduced to Jose Berrios in a video of him celebrating with his friends and family after receiving the exquisite news that he was drafted by a professional baseball team. Arms in a “V”, high-fives, hugs and tears. For Minnesota Twins fans, the sequel is of him doing the same thing on the field following the last out of a World Series victory. That’s the dream anyway. There remains, of course, a long road from here to there. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Still, Berrios has done much in his burgeoning career to inspire hope that he can be a part of any championship team in the coming years. After the draft, the supplemental first round pick dominated rookie ball in both the Appalachian and Gulf Coast Leagues in 2012, racking up 49 strikeouts and allowing just four walks in 30.2 innings. Baseball America said he was the team’s sixth best prospect in a system where new and elite talent was constantly being stocked. This past season Berrios, at the ripe age of 19, performed well in the tougher competitive challenge in the Midwest League. Mindful of his development, the Twins pulled back the reins to help insure he remains out of the infirmary, where so many of their lauded pitching prospects have gone. And, like most raw prospect talents, he also encountered some resistance as he discovered he could not always throw his speedball by you to make you look like a fool. Why He Might Struggle Berrios’ stature -- generously listed at six-foot-nothing -- may be his biggest perceived weakness. While that would be an inch and change above my current height, by major league pitching standards, that is considered downright diminutive. With a three-quarters delivery, there have been occasions when he has been unable to get the ball down in the zone and when that happens...boom. According to MinorLeagueCentral.com’s depository of stats, Berrios managed just a 40% ground ball rate - a figure toward the bottom of the Midwest League’s leaderboard. As a pitcher ascends in a system that rate typically decreases. It would be nicer to see that number at 50% or higher to go along with his strikeouts but that would take a complete revamping of his repertoire and mechanics. Basically, he is what he is: a strikeout pitcher with fly ball-leaning tendencies. The strikeouts, however, did not come in as many bunches this past season as they did his first year in the organization. He’s got a lively fastball, a decent curve with a 1-to-7 break and a good changeup with plenty of arm-side run. During his amatuer days, Perfect Game noted that Berrios had flashed a cutter to go along with his other three pitches. His problem, he acknowledged this summer, is that he tries to throw the fastball past everyone rather than mix in the assortment. Why He Will Succeed OK, so he won’t win any...umm...height contests but wowzers, that’s an impressive wing span on the young man. What is striking about Berrios is how polished his mechanics are for his age and how well he hides the ball from hitters in his windup. With three above-average pitches, it is easy to see why he can miss bats; just a little tinkering with his pitch deployment strategy could make for a very lethal pitcher. Beyond that, much has been made of Berrios’ work ethic. Gary Lucas, his pitching coach with Cedar Rapids last year, raved about his advanced make-up for someone as young as he is. He told Twins Daily’s Seth Stohs recently that he places a great deal of emphasis on his training. There is no reason to think that Berrios won’t do everything in his power to take his God-given talent to the next level. What’s Next? Berrios is a long way from being in the Twins’ roster anytime in the near future. Realistically he may be best suited to be a late-innings reliever, someone who doesn’t have to churn through 100 bullets a night and who can stomp his cleats on hitters’ throats with his two best pitches. That said, there is no reason to write him off as a potential starter. Some refinement in his approach and filling out as he matures could propel him into a rotation spot. Either way, Berrios has some electric stuff that -- barring catastrophic injuries -- will eventually be on display at the major league level.

A year ago Josmil Pinto wasn’t on anyone’s prospect list. Baseball America. Baseball Prospectus. Seth Stohs. None of these minor league mavens saw Pinto coming in 2013. The kid was so far off the radar you’d figure he had drowned in tobacco juice (which has been known to happen in Wisconsin) somewhere in Beloit . And yet, one year later, here he is, number seven with a bullet on our prospect list. What happened? How did everyone miss so badly? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Part of it is the nature of the prospecting game, to be sure. People can overrate guys for certain elements of their game...like former prospect Joe Benson, for example. Once upon a time he was a Top 10 guy every year because he was the toolsiest tool to ever tool. He had everything: The body, the athleticism, the hair (oh, the hair). In the end, the tools were not able to translate into big league success. Not yet, anyhow. Meanwhile, a guy like Pinto who has a frumpy body, an unorthodox swing and is a bigger liability behind the plate than a competitive eater with lockjaw... well, sometimes those guys keep improving or keep hitting. The Rise In November 2012, the Twins added the 24-year-old catcher to their 40-man roster, a consortium of ballplayers that was already littered with catchers. The move was originally heralded as curious. In their preseason annual, Baseball Prospectus considered his inclusion a “somewhat surprising addition” to the Twins’ group. After all, he had but 52 plate appearances in AA New Britain under his belt. Despite a .295/.362/.482 line in 2012 while playing a position that places emphasis on defense, Baseball America omitted him from the Twins’ Top 10 list. As did Baseball Prospectus. (Of course, a lot of that can be attributed to the growing depth of prospect talent in the team’s farm system.) Even though he demonstrated a good deal of power in the offense-stifling Florida State League, Pinto’s age (24) at the start of the 2013 season, his injury history, his non-jeans model body and his oft questioned defense likely earned him demerits in the rankings. Last year in spring training, the 24-year-old catcher began to catch a few eyes as well. Manager Ron Gardenhire professed intrigue in the Venezuelan while prospector John Sickels noted that Pinto has slimmed down some, making the knock on his body shape less of a factor in his projection. Then he just kept hitting and moving. First it was New Britain, where he earned an All-Star berth, followed by a brief stint in Rochester and then having his season culminate with a summons from the big club in September. Pinto’s September call-up was preceded by Joe Mauer’s season-ending injury and that allowed him to play almost full-time behind the plate and to hit every day. And hit he did. With the exception of Chris Parmelee’s 2011, Pinto’s 2013 season was the best offensive performance by a Twins’ call-up in a long while. While that is a good sign, much like with Parmelee, the results in the small sampling do not dictate future output. Why He Might Struggle Teams have little time to prepare game plans to attack call-ups' weaknesses and often are left challenging them with fastballs. In his time with the Twins, Pinto saw almost 60% fastballs -- a very high percentage in comparison with the league average. With his high leg kick, Pinto may prove to be more susceptible to offspeed and breaking pitches or simply have his timing thrown off when he faces a greater variety of pitches. With the equipment on, Pinto did not prove to be as much of a liability as previously advertised. In fact, after not throwing out any of five runners in spring training, Pinto, in September, nailed five of 11 would-be base-stealers while not allowing a passed ball (there were nine wild pitches credited to the pitchers). Still, this did not stop general manager Terry Ryan from voicing caution when it came to assessing his overall catching abilities. This winter Ryan told Twins Daily that the team viewed Pinto’s September as good, not great. Why He Will Succeed While a wider array of pitch types might provide a kink in his development, he has hit at almost every level. Unlike some prospects who need a period of adjustment, Pinto has hit the ground running. Last year, one area of his game that saw improvement was his plate discipline: he saw an increase in walk rates despite playing at higher levels -- perhaps a sign that he will be able to have success against different pitches. Having already mentioned that his significant leg kick might be a detriment, it is also a solid timing mechanism that helps him perform well against both hard and soft offerings. Examining his spray chart, you can see that for hard offerings (fastballs, sliders, etc), he stays middle-away. On the other hand, for slower offerings (changeups, curves, etc), he pull them. Some hitters get caught cheating to pull the fastball and find themselves too far out in front to adjust to offspeed (Ryan Doumit comes to mind). Pinto does not do this. What’s Next Pinto can hit, we know this. The Twins want to see more from him defensively in order to give him the position full-time. His white-hot September aside, he probably could use a few more ABs and defensive refinement at Rochester before taking over the job.

Byron Buxton, says ESPN.com’s Keith Law, is a prospect with more tools than Home Depot. OK, now that the requisite pun is out of the way, let’s delve into the nitty-gritty. After MLB.com anointed Buxton the number one prospect in all the land, Law’s Top 100 list concurred. As a 19-year-old, the center fielder smacked pitching around in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues to the tune of .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 109 runs scored. An on-base menace, Buxton scampered around the bases with blinding speed and, defensively, he covered more real estate than is in the Alaskan wilderness. But it is perhaps the most difficult aspect of the game -- hitting -- that separates the elite prospects from the flamed-out Brandon Woods of the world. The game is organic and climbing the ladder involves making changes in approach and mechanics to ensure the stud high school/college player not only reaches but succeeds at the highest level of professional baseball. When it comes to Buxton, those changes are in process. As Law writes about Buxton: The bold section of his analysis is what jumped out at me. At midseason, I reviewed Buxton’s mechanics from the available video at the time, compared the changes made from his high school showcase days and concluded that he and the Twins had made some significant changes to his swing. To summarize, Buxton had eliminated his open stance and leg kick in favor of an in-line approach with a toe-touch stride. In theory this provides improved timing and greater contact ability with less body movement -- the “balanced through contact” part that Law referenced. http://oi41.tinypic.com/2rh39lu.jpg What was prominent but not mentioned was the fact that his back leg left the ground at contact. At that time, I did not see this as a flaw, per se. After all, there are some hitters who do quite well for themselves with this in their swing. Albert Pujols’ swing pulls his back foot off the ground and forward after contact. More pronounced, however, is the Washington Nationals’ Bryce Harper who displays this very trait in his swing perhaps more than anybody. http://gamereax.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/harperderbyswing.gif As you see at the point of contact, Harper’s back foot has left the ground by an inch or two. Though somewhat unorthodox, in an article published by Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post last year, biomechanics expect Glenn Fleisig explained why this move is beneficial for Harper: So, biomechanically speaking, the move in and of itself does not reduce power. The main difference between Harper and Buxton’s leg lifts was the weight transfer. In Harper’s case, you see that his front side has absorbed essentially all his weight. Buxton, on the other hand, lacks the max effort transfer and has a more balanced weight distribution making the leg lift something that could diminish his power. What’s more is that from the front view, it is noticeable that Buxton’s back leg slides out a bit, too. Over the course of last season, video of Buxton in Cedar Rapids and then Fort Myers showed the game’s top prospect demonstrating this back-leg lift in his swing, but there was evidence of it beginning to tone down in the Florida State League. It was not until clips of his performance in the Arizona Fall League that Buxton’s swing seemed different than that of his Midwest League. http://imageshack.com/a/img809/1010/4gl.gifhttp://imageshack.com/a/img829/952/s6u.gif From the Twins’ perspective, you can see why they would want to try to streamline Buxton’s mechanics. Any reduction of unnecessary movement will streamline the swing and provide Buxton -- who is graced with countless tools -- the opportunity to succeed at the major league level for a long time.

Who knows why Josh Willingham left first base with the intention of stealing second base on April 27th, 2013. Coaches claim the thievery was not planned. It’s possible that with the left-handed Michael Kirkman on the mound, Willingham was fooled by his delivery or was caught leaning when the Ranger threw over to first. Either way, with his team up 4-0 -- thanks in part to his two-run home run two innings prior -- Willingham broke for second, took the base but aggravated his knee in the process. All for what? The knee, which he had injured in 2010 while with the Nationals, gave Willingham troubles the rest of last year. For the remainder of the season, the man who had punished pitching and made people think the concrete had finally settled at Target Field in 2012 hit a Punto-nian .200/.332/.336 over nearly 400 plate appearances. With the left knee out of commission -- the right-handed slugger’s front knee which absorbs the impact in his stride and weight transfer and twists violently when he is opening up his hips to turn on the ball -- Willingham’s power drained significantly. He hit just 14 home runs compared to the 35 he had in 2012. His standard fly ball distance dropped from 279 feet to 265 feet on average. Whether or not directly related to the knee injury, what gave Willingham the most trouble was doing anything with pitches on the outer-half of the strike zone. In 2012 he hit .217/.337/.422 with 22 extra base hits including 11 home runs on pitches on the outer-third of the plate. This past year he managed to produce just a .170/.296/.224 batting line that included nine extra base hits (all doubles). The heat maps and spray charts from ESPN’s Stats & Info Department show how much better Willingham was at hitting those pitches for power and driving the ball for distance. In 2012 his average fly ball distance on those pitches was 296 feet. Last year the average distance dropped to 255 feet. 2012 2013 Based on the heat map of his slugging percentage (left) it is clear Willingham thrived when being able to extend his hands on pitches up and out over the plate to drive the ball. In 2013, he was unable to get the desired results on the same pitches as he did in 2012. Interestingly enough, his contact rates in that location in these two seasons are very comparable but the production simply dropped off. It is indeed likely the knee was the catalyst for the plate coverage power drop-off, when we see that in both 2011 and 2009 he hit six home runs on the outer-half of the plate but in 2010, when he injured his knee and required surgery on his meniscus, he had just one home run and very little power (.277 slugging). The takeaway is that once healthy in 2011, Willingham’s power rebounded nicely (29 home runs, .477 slugging percentage overall). If healthy in 2014, the Twins should expect the home run power to return. All graphs and data provided by ESPN Stats & Info.

The Twins announced today at their media luncheon that former second baseman Chuck Knoblauch has been elected to the Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame. Knoblauch, the 1991 American League Rookie of the Year, and was instrumental in the team's World Series run that season. Over his Twins career he hit .304/.391/.416 in 1,013 games and represented the team four times in the All-Star game (1992, 1994, 1996 and 1997). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]In 1994 he led the league in doubles (45), triples in 1996 (14) and his 140 runs scored in 1996 was the highest ever in a single-season by a Twins player. With the glove, he played outstanding defense, leading the league in Total Zone Runs in 1992 (8) and 1997 (17) and winning one Gold Glove. His 1996 season in which he posted 8.6 wins above replacement (via baseball-reference.com) still stands as the Twins' second best season as measured by that statistic (Rod Carew's 1977 season was the highest). His .391 on-base percentage is the fifth highest in the franchise history and third highest since the move to Minnesota. Of course, his public demands for a trade soured the fans on his overall talent and the eventual move to the New York Yankees further widened that chasm. The trade netted the Twins Eric Milton, Cristian Guzman and Brian Buchanan and Danny Mota but the likes of Ricky Ladee and Ramiro Mendoza were discussed prior to that. While in New York, Knoblauch was a part of three championship teams (1998, 1999 and 2000) but throwing issues from second necessitated a move to DH before relocating to third base. When he came back to the Metrodome he was booed loudly. In an infamous event, fans started throwing Dome Dogs and batteries while he was in left field. As you recall, Tom Kelly walked out to left field and scolded the Twins fans. After playing with the Yankees and the Royals, Knoblauch fell on some hard times after the game abandoned him. Regardless of his personal traits, Knoblauch's contributions to the game on the field make him deserving of the team's highest honor. (Seth Stohs contributed to this article)

Sources indicate that the Milwaukee Brewers have now signed pitcher Matt Garza to the tune of four years, $52 million. This is notable for several reasons. The first being that this is a substantial savings from what he was originally projected as being worth going into the free agent season. At Twins Daily, we estimated that Garza would reach five years and $75 million in the Offseason Handbook. Instead, teams shied away from him. The second interesting piece is that this deal is basically the same one that the Twins gave starter Ricky Nolasco earlier in the winter (4 years, $49M + options). Comparatively, Garza, who is a year younger than Nolasco, has had a slightly better career. However according to Fangraphs.com, since 2010, the pair has been surprisingly similar. What you see is that while the raw numbers are very alike, Garza gets better marks for his ERA, xFIP and FIP for spending time in the American League while Nolasco has been in the National League. Of course, one of the biggest concerns of teams making these sizable investments is how a player will hold up over the course of that agreement. In Nolasco’s case, he has been rock solid over his career meanwhile Garza has been in-and-out of infirmaries for arm-related ailments (Nolasco’s have been mainly trunk and thigh). 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson tweeted out today that the Twins were not in pursuit of Garza at the requested four-year rate, sticking firm to a potential two-year deal after signing Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey. Still, the question that will undoubtedly arise from Twins fans is -- should they have targeted Garza instead of Nolasco?

After three straight 90-loss seasons, the Minnesota Twins need a reinvention. While other teams have harnessed analytics to advance their in-game strategies, the Twins remained analog in a digital world. No longer. Not long ago, the notion of “infield shifting” in the Twins dugout may have been a reference to adjusting one’s protective cup. Now, according to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, the Twins and new bench coach Paul Molitor are to join the rest of baseball when it comes to defensive positioning. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] “The game has changed so much; we’re seeing more overshifts and people not afraid to give up space based on tendencies, so it’s something I’m excited about learning about and applying to the way we play defense,” Molitor told Bollinger this week. The Twins, who finished in the middle of the pack when it came to using shifts in 2013, may increase the usage this season. With the help of Jack Goin, the manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, and Sean Harlin, the team’s video director, Molitor is looking for an edge. And that edge may include the use of infield shifts. New use of an old trick To be sure, this is certainly not groundbreaking stuff by any means. The idea is to play to a hitter’s tendency by overloading defenders into a zone that a hitter frequents. This methodology, initially known as the Williams Shift, was implemented shortly after World War II by Indians manager Lou Boudreau, who stacked his infielders on the right side when facing Boston’s left-handed hitting Ted Williams. With the advent and dissemination of batted ball data broken down to minutia, forward-thinking teams have been implementing this strategy lately. Last July, Baseball Info Solution’s John Dewan reported that, much like Facebook, everybody and their mothers are doing it. In 2010 the shift was used just 2,465 times. In 2012 it was up to 4,577. Midway through last season, the baseball world was on pace to shift over 7,000 times. At the top of the list for teams who used the shift were teams like Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, generally considered as being the most likely to use statistical analysis. Joining them was the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose defensive efforts were lauded in 2013 and their generous use of the infield shift was at the forefront of items receiving praise. In 2011, Dan Fox -- the team’s Director of Baseball Systems Development and a former Baseball Prospectus contributor -- convinced the organization to sway from baseball convention and embrace playing the odds. The result was a significant swing in defensive efficiency – transforming from Swiss cheese infield to, I don’t know, let’s say a cheese with the ability to make plays up the middle. Issues with the shift? Not all teams see shifting as a net positive. The St. Louis Cardinals, a very well-respected organization, had been a proponent of the shift in 2012. That year manager Mike Matheny said he and front office members reviewed data that showed the advantage of having fielders set up against certain players who have a tendency to hit ground balls or shallow liners in distinct zones 80% of the time or more. However, Matheny’s pitching staff found it was difficult to pitch to that type of alignment in order to make it work. “Last year there were times when we were shifting and I knew [the pitchers] weren’t real comfortable with it,” Matheny told the media last August. “No matter what I believe, we can talk to guys about the importance and show them the statistics, but if they don’t feel comfortable with how the defense is aligned behind them, we’re wasting our time.” Meanwhile, the Oakland A’s newest closer and ground ball aficionado, Jim Johnson, who was a member of the shift-happy Orioles last year, found that the overuse made little sense. “It’s fine on certain guys, but I think sometimes it gets a little carried away,” Johnson remarked last season. “Trying to do things just to do things, you know. If you’re shifting on a number 8 hitter, just because [the numbers] say he grounds out to the right side, and you’ve got a guy throwing 99mph that he’s probably not going to turn around, then why are you shifting?” Pitchers are not the only ones who believe that the shift has shortcomings that may outweigh the positives. In 2012 Bill James penned a piece that suggested there are too many unstudied, undocumented occurrences that happen because of the shift that make it problematic and possibly detrimental. Those include: Lost opportunities during foul pops on the right side of the infield because a third baseman is moved, Missed double play opportunities because fielders are out of position, And missed relays because fielders are out of position, among others. Teams like Tampa and Pittsburgh, who have taken measures to implement the shift strategy system-wide so that fielders are used to playing in a shift, may be equipped to handle those scenarios but a team like the Twins (who may or may not begin to incorporate more shifts in 2014) could find those moments causing more headaches than relieving them. This year, James also prophesized that the days of the shift are numbered and that once ego-driven sluggers begin to recognize that they could bat .700 by simply laying down a bunt (or a bunt double like Robinson Cano did), teams will no longer find giving up hits carte blache to be a worthwhile strategy. Is there a tangible advantage? Then there is the question of exactly how much does the shift improve a team’s ability to convert grounders in outs. As it stands, Baseball Info Solutions believes that teams like the 2013 Pirates were given a 2-win advantage because of their use of the shift. Of course, what James argues is that BIS’s system does not account for those mishaps and missed opportunities. At the end of the day, the top shift addicts were marginally better than teams like the Twins and Cardinals who it used more recreationally when it came to turning ground balls into outs. The 2013 data from ESPN/trumedia shows that the average major league team recorded outs on 77.3% of ground balls. While teams like the Pirates and Orioles scored very high by the Out-of-Zone metric (plays made by fielders out of the typical zone of that position which - surprise - is what happens when you shift a lot) and made their Ultimate Zone Ratings look good, the benefits were negligible compared to the Twins and Cardinals who did not use the shift. The Twins were very strong on the second base/first base side (represented by the Right/Far Right from the batter’s perspective) and based on Mauer’s athletic abilities, there stands a chance that first base should be improved defensively in 2014. Where the Twins lagged greatly last year was the defense up-the-middle: For example, while the shifty Pirates recorded outs on an MLB-best 64.9% of grounders hit in the middle of the diamond, the Twins struggled to defend that turf (which has been a long-standing problem). Could infield shifting improve the out conversion rate for the Twins? Playing the tendency and shifting does not always translate into a complete overload of the right or left side of the diamond either. The Twins recently hired Sam Perlozzo to handle the minor league infielders, the role vacated by Paul Molitor when he was promoted, and Perlozzo’s former job in Philadelphia was positioning the infielders. Although the Phillies did not use the overload shift, Perlozzo told reporters in 2012 that he will use the data to position his fielders, but it may not mean the shortstop is swinging all the way around the horn. While Molitor begins to play the odds at the major league level, Perlozzo will likely try to establish similar techniques at the lower levels. Will it work? If Baseball Info Solutions’ assessment of the effects of the infield shifts proves accurate, the Twins may be able to claim wins at the margins. With three 90-loss seasons, trying anything different is a good thing.

Oswaldo Arcia’s rookie season was filled with the expected peaks and valleys that most normal human rookies encounter during their first year of facing the world’s best competition. Offensively, he displayed flashes of unbridled power by depositing home runs to all fields but alternated those moments with stretches of being lost. Over three games in early July, Arcia woofed 11 times in 18 at-bats. In that small sampling, he swung the bat 26 times but managed to put the ball in play just three times (two infield flies and a medium fly to left) while missing 16 times and fouling off seven more. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Sent back to Rochester shortly thereafter – perhaps just for his own sanity’s sake as he seemed ready to snap – Arcia returned to Minnesota in August for the duration of the season and continued to hit the ball hard (when he made contact). Like many overzealous noobies, Arcia struggled to maintain the respectable plate discipline he had worked hard to cultivate while in the minors in 2012. In the bigs, he reverted back to his previous ways and swung harder and more frequently than your parents at the neighbor’s key party in the late 1980’s. There are pros and cons to this approach. First, Arcia thrived in hitter’s counts when he could anticipate the heater. Perhaps because he was an unproven player, the Twins outfielder saw a higher than average number of fastballs when he had the drop on pitchers (70% vs. 62% league average) and he was able to capitalize. Of his 14 home runs, seven came on fastballs when he was ahead in the count. Beyond that, just based on batting average, he was baseball’s best when ahead in the count – his .509 batting average led the game (minimum 50 plate appearances). Skeptics can (rightly) point out that this is a small universe to make any sweeping proclamations; however the takeaway is that in situations Arcia needed to take advantage, he did. The reason that Arcia’s plate discipline numbers were so skewed towards the pitcher’s favor is because, far too often, the pitcher was in the catbird seat. Under those circumstances, he struggled mightily and hit just .160 as pitchers put away the fastball (just 44% of the time) and opened up their repertoire to twirl different offerings past his bat. Visually, we can see how much better Arcia’s swing zone is when he is ahead in the count compared to the vast swath of real estate he tries to cover once he falls behind. It turns into an “Oh my god, here’s strike three coming: Kill it! Kill it!” mentality. (via ESPN Stats & Info) There is no question that Arcia’s swing is fundamentally strong. With strong engagement with his lower half (controlled stride, solid hip involvement), his ability to keep his hands in to his body allows him to drive the ball well to all fields, as seen in the example below: Your browser does not support iframes. As Arcia develops his pitch recognition and comprehension skills, the presumption is he will be behind in the count less often as pitchers become more reluctant to throw him anything cherry. If he is able to ignore those out-of-zone pitches, this should allow for him to jump on more of the suitable pitches and deploy his powerful swing.

Let’s just start by saying that in his second tour of duty in the major league, Brian Dozier fared better than in his first stint. After a dismal 2012 season, he managed to improve his walk rate and power numbers to finish the year as one of the team’s top contributions. Faint praise, however, considering the lineup’s surprising lack of offense overall. That said, Dozier’s in-season development was impressive.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After a working with hitting coach Tom Brunansky, the infielder was able to make a timing adjustment that paid dividends in the season’s second-half. The adjustment allowed Dozier to combine the changes he made with his hips in spring training with proper timing to drive the ball on the inner-half of the plate. The results were 18 home runs -- the highest total by a Twins’ second baseman in team history. Will this equate to potential big home run numbers in 2014, too? Eh, not so fast. One thing that needs to be taken into consideration is where his home run pitches were located. According to ESPNtrumedia’s database, 11 of his 18 home runs were located in the upper-third of the hitting zone: Brian Dozier's 2013 home runs, by location This represents a very high percentage of his home runs and something that hitters do not typically match, year-in and year-out. In 2013, only Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt (17) hit more home runs on pitches in the upper-third of the strike zone than Dozier. For the past several years this leader board has had plenty of turnover. In 2012 another Diamondback, Aaron Hill, led baseball with 13 home runs on pitches in the upper-third. The year before that it was Josh Willingham (16) in Oakland and, before that, Albert Pujols (20). Why this appears to be an unrepeatable skill may be influenced by the opposition’s change in approach. If you know that Albert Pujols is going to launch one on a pitch up in the zone, you would avoid that space like the plague. On the other hand, it may simply be luck. Despite major league pitchers’ best efforts, they still miss their spots from time to time and the ability to capitalize on those mistakes by depositing them into the seats may take a stroke of good fortune for the hitter. Beyond that, Dozier faced a very high percentage of fastballs. This may be because he was a non-threatening factor in 2012 but has since made it clear he can handle the heat. Last year, he saw fastballs 57% of the time whereas the league average was 53%. On fastballs Dozier hit a healthy .273/.353/.517 but hit just .196/.239/.249 on non-fastballs. If you were concocting a game plan to combat the Twins’ lineup, the directive would likely be to throw Dozier fewer fastballs in 2014 – at the very least, fewer fastballs up in the zone. This is not to cause despair for Dozier’s 2014 season. After all, his plate discipline was a significant step forward as he reduced his chase rate considerably, from 32% in ’12 to 26%; he also stopped swinging at everything as his swing rate dropped from 49% in ‘12 to 40% in 2013. Those indicators bode well for his comprehension of the zone and his development as a hitter.

With the calendar flipping to 2014 tomorrow, Twins fans must be eager to hurry that process along. After all, the previous season was a mire with yet another 90+ loss year on the ledger. Although no one should be criticized for having his attention wander from the team before spring training, there were still plenty of entertaining moments to remember - little things that make the entire sport of baseball beautiful. Below are the Top 10 moments from 2013. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Honorable Mention: Glen Perkins Pitches With Fly Down Just what it sounds like. (h/t cjzero) 10. Aaron Hicks: Card-Carrying Member of the NRA He has to be when you see his gun. It should be no surprise considering teams were thinking about drafting him as a pitcher out of high school where he threw upper 90s cheddar on the mound. Turns out that velocity translates well to the outfield. At Yankee Stadium, after letting the ball carom off the wall, Hicks caught up with it just short of the warning track and delivered a bullet to third to nail the Yankees’ Vernon Wells who was looking for the extra base. http://www-thescore.s3.amazonaws.com/images/128017/original.gif?1373685892 Wells was just one of Hicks’ nine outfield assists in his rookie year -- that was the highest number of assists for someone with so few innings (701 innings). (h/t @cjzero) 9. Oswaldo Arcia Tries To Bo Jackson His Bat, Fails All rookies have a tendency to struggle as they adapt to a higher level of pitching. Oswaldo Arcia was no different. While demonstrating mouthwatering power at times, he also went through a long stretch where he could not make contact with a pitched ball. With it, apparently, came frustration. In Tampa, Arcia could not take it anymore. After another K, he tried to take it out on his bat but the bat -- presumably not weakened by contact -- wouldn’t give. (h/t Me and my Vine) 8. Darin Mastroianni’s Belt-Busting Grab Mastroianni, who spent a significant portion of the year sidelined with a foot injury, showed that he can cover a sizable amount of real estate. In limited time, he made plays on 32 of the 34 balls in his zone while playing outfield. Additionally, he managed to snag eight more that were outside of the typical fielder’s zone - including this one in Houston. While thwarting this should-be extra base hit, Mastroianni lays out on the warning track. In doing so, the coarse Texas dirt did more damage to his belt than a night at Old Country Buffet. Mastroianni was saved by borrowing the pants holder-upper from a member of his bullpen: http://media.giphy.com/media/qIVLNZgDkH3a0/giphy.gif Just a reminder that baseball is the only one of the four major sports to have belts as a part of their uniforms. (h/t Giphy.com) 7. Brian Dozier’s Glorious Hair After an unsuccessful season at shortstop in 2012, Brian Dozier moved one position to the left. There, he displayed solid glove work and, occasionally, flashy plays like this one. http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/sports/2013-07-22/4fbe6b3b-dcf8-45b2-b295-d5d01a72c81f_792979101.gif OK, so it is less about the actual catch and more about the Hollywood hair. This must be female baseball fan’s equivalent of watching Phoebe Cates climb out of the pool in slow motion in Fast Time At Ridgemont High. Makes you feel all funny inside; like climbing the ropes in gym class. It is clear he lathers, rinses and repeats. Repeating is so important. (h/t: Yahoo Sports Big League Stew) 6. Joe Mauer Is An Athletic Freak The study of measuring a catcher’s contributions has grown exponentially among the statistics crowd with the proliferation of framing studies and data. While the jury may still be out on how much value those extra strikes can provide a team, having an athletic freak of nature wearing the tools of ignorance still pays dividends. Case in point, with a relay from Hicks-to-Florimon-to-home gone awry Mauer, a towering former football and basketball recruit out of high school, leaps in the air to secure the errant throw and adjusts to tag out Boston’s Stephen Drew at the plate. Simply amazing to watch. http://25.media.tumblr.com/1b955bbd97d21fdfb481e9f235111d1c/tumblr_mmepjgAkJy1ro5xweo1_400.gif With the move to first base set for 2014, Mauer should be remembered as one of the game’s most athletically gifted catchers because of plays like this. If that is not enough, surely this honorable mention will convince you that he has not just a sixth but a seventh sense for the game of baseball: http://mlb.mlb.com/assets/images/custom/tumblr_mo4u1rJw0i1ro5xweo1_400_tl8m82rv.gif (h/t Drawn To MLB) 5. Justin Morneau High-Fives Nobody Justin Morneau had a career-high streak of 168 at-bats without a homer when he busted out with a long one on June 20. When he returned to the dugout, his teammates gave the veteran the big snub. Rather than succumb to their silent treatment, Morneau threw out a bunch of air fives. http://24.media.tumblr.com/4f8041853d4ee14d411b3eb43c930dfb/tumblr_mooadxEIyH1ro5xweo1_400.gif Traded to Pittsburgh at the waiver deadline, Morneau has signed with the Rockies and rejoined former teammate Michael Cuddyer who, according to former Twins teammates, distributes an extremely painful high five. (h/t Drawn to MLB) 4. Ballboy Makes Second Best Catch At Target Field Paul Neshek, former Twins reliever Pat Neshek’s brother is patrolling the left field line. The White Sox' Alexi Ramirez laces a liner that is destined for a fan’s face. Neshek leaps from his perch and snares that mofo before it can do damage. Look at the clearance he gets in order to intercept this missile. Your browser does not support iframes. http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=28195859[/media] (h/t MLB.com) 3. Jared Burton Knocks Out Brian Duensing Oh, the fun you have in a bullpen. http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/18wsij6rrs5gmgif/ku-xlarge.gif Apparently, former teammate Matt Maloney had the idea of miming a knockout punch in the bullpen and so when Chris Colabello (Italian for “Beautiful Cola”) launched a drive that would clear the Twins bullpen in Chicago, Brian Duensing told Burton to throw a punch, to which Burton obliged. Naturally, the results were amazing. (h/t Deadspin) 2. Trevor Plouffe Goes Ass Over Tea Kettle In Kansas City For A Foul Ball For good reason, Plouffe takes a lot of heat for his defense at third. This was not one of those times. http://25.media.tumblr.com/d4045af080a521b040774f74dd46b465/tumblr_mr45xe8f091ro5xweo1_400.gif (h/t Drawn To MLB) 1. Chris Parmelee Makes Twins Fan Lose His Effin’ Mind Chris Parmelee, giving Justin Morneau a reprieve at first, chased a Milwaukee Brewer foul ball towards the camera well near the Twins’ dugout. The ball appeared well out of reach of Parmelee’s grasp, easily being a play that could have been given up on. Instead, Parmelee superman’d himself over the padded gate, over the three concrete steps down and somehow found the ball as he landed at the feet of FSN’s Marney Gellner. It was a play that was made with complete disregard for human life. http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/webdr05/2013/5/30/12/anigif_enhanced-buzz-10353-1369931506-13.gif OK, so full confession: the reason this was - in my opinion - the best play of 2013 was because I saw the play up close and personal. With seats on the rail, the foul ball tailed off the field of play and was headed directly to where I was sitting. In fact, I believe I called it in the air. The ball, however, landed a few feet short of my outstretched hands. Fixated on the ball the entire time, I completely missed Parmelee’s approach. Out of my peripheral vision, I saw a white blur diving and gloving the ball before landing hard on the concrete surface below. Outside of seeing my daughter being born, it was the single-greatest thing I have ever eyewitnessed. Thus, I made this face: http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/webdr05/2013/5/30/12/anigif_enhanced-buzz-10359-1369931744-19.gif Buzzfeed later dubbed it a “Mom made Pizza Rolls” face. I defy any of you to watch the play from the same spot I had and not to have had the same reaction. (Bonus fact: That’s my Dad doing the double-barrelled fist-pump next to me.) (h/t Buzzfeed)