Parker Hageman

Last month I wrote that the Twins’ lineup was poised to make life difficult for left-handed pitching. Since that post, the Twins own the second-highest slugging percentage and OPS versus lefties in baseball (.539 and .844, respectively). Unfortunately, there is another lefty problem: their own pitching staff cannot get left-handed hitters out. Left-handed hitters have decimated Twins’ pitching to the tune of .301/.377/.563, leading to the worst OPS against in baseball. Essentially, they are turning every hitter on the left side into Bryce Harper. In fact, if the season ended today, that .940 OPS against left-handed hitters would be the worst on record dating back to at least 1990. Only three teams have finished the season with an OPS above .900 against left-handed hitters -- the 1999 Colorado Rockies (.917), the 1994 Texas Rangers (.907) and the 2000 Houston Astros (.903). Fortunately for the Twins, the season does not end today -- with all the new rules I had to double-check -- but this is a historically bad pace. In a time where everything is skewed toward pitching, not being able to get hitters out is a huge problem. Since most teams started shifting heavily on lefties, their overall performance has tanked. The current league-wide OPS for left-handed hitters is at .704 -- only 2014’s .701 OPS was worse. Unlike the previous situation where the underlying metrics suggested (as Beck famously added to one of his songs), things are going to change, I can feel it, the pitching staff is getting hit hard across the board. Opponents average a 90.1 mph exit velocity, the second highest in baseball, while nearly 46% of the balls put into play are 95 mph or higher, also the second highest. A year ago, as they cruised to a division title, the Twins had one of the lowest marks in either category. The starting rotation is faring slightly better than the bullpen (867 OPS vs 1.049 OPS) but right-handers Matt Shoemaker (1.023), Kenta Maeda (.980), and Jose Berrios (.961) have a big problem to solve. The 2020 Twins starters kept lefties subdued with a barrage of non-fastballs. Nearly 60% of incoming pitches were not of the fastball variety and lefties had a 495 OPS against them, the second lowest in baseball. This year, while still throwing a high percentage of non-fastballs, left-handed hitters have a 756 OPS against those. Both Berrios (874 OPS) and Maeda (867) are struggling to keep them off of their breaking ball and changeup combinations -- which is surprising when you consider they both finished last year with those numbers 300 points lower. The larger issue is that bullpen, an area in which match-ups can be somewhat controlled, is failing even worse than the rotation. Both Cody Stashak and Jorge Alcala have OPS figures above 1.400 in 36 match-ups against lefties, albeit in lower leverage situations. Alexander Colomẽ has been almost equally as bad (1.156) in 27 plate appearances (17 of those coming in high leverage situations). Perhaps most frustrating has been the performance of left-handed pitchers Caleb Thielbar (1.189 OPS in 20 plate appearances) and Taylor Rogers (.947 OPS in 19 plate appearances). There are adjustments that need to be made. Maeda and Berrios are better than their numbers indicate. Maeda needs to find his release point for his slider and changeup. Berrios needs to determine which combination to use to get lefties out. Shoemaker needs to...do a lot of things. Many of the arms in the bullpen are capable of getting outs and the numbers are likely to improve over a larger sampling. If the Twins can fix this problem -- and do so in a hurry -- they might have a chance to get back in the race. View full article

Ted Williams wrote in The Science of Hitting that the “slightly upward swing is the ideal path.” It took years for Williams’ theories to be embraced but he has largely been vindicated in the modern era: Hitting the ball in the air has proven to be more impactful than driving it into the ground. (If you think otherwise, you can yell at me on Twitter.) Understanding a hitter’s swing path is one way to tell if they are capable of getting the ball in the air on a regular basis. Experienced coaches will be able to tell from swings what a hitter’s path is (up, down or level), however, by using a bat sensor from Blast Motion or Diamond Kinetic, you can obtain a metric called attack angle and have certainty of where in the swing path the hitter’s bat is making contact with the ball. Certainly you don’t need to invest in the tech but, as this clip below from Driveline Baseball’s hitting trainer John Soteropulos shows, a hitter’s swing can have all three elements in it. With a bat sensor, you can isolate the data point that will tell you if a hitter is swinging uphill, level, or downhill at the moment of contact. If the attack angle number is positive, a hitter is swinging with an upward plane. If a hitter’s attack angle is in the negative range, they are swinging down on the ball. A measurement of zero is a swing that is parallel to the ground. Read the rest of the post at Get Better Baseball.

I don't think there was ever a question that he could be this good. I still remember Jason Parks' at Baseball Prospectus deeming him "super magic unicorn good" after watching him in the lower minors. Buxton has shown plenty of flashes of this. Injuries have derailed some of that progress. Listening to what others think he should be was another issue. Now that he's one of the most dangerous hitters, it will be interesting to see how he responds to teams adjusting. Teams have started throwing him fewer strikes (and no where near the zone) so it will be up to him to keep adjusting. I cannot speak to what happens in season or who Buxton is or is not currently listening to. Either way, hard to question his process right now.

I don't know the source or the context of where the other stats came from but, he is still chasing (35% chase% in 2021 compared to 34% career average) and swinging through a high amount of pitches (31.2% miss% vs 31% career average). Overall, he's striking out a lot less (20% compared to 28% career average). That might be where the confusion comes from. Again, it goes back to the point about his contact. When he makes contact, it goes hard. It's not a foul ball strike like in previous season.

Are we witnessing greatness?Way back in 2016, Byron Buxton was a 22-year-old and had 46 games of major league experience. Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus all considered him the game’s number two prospect overall. Expectations were sky high. Impressively, Buxton finished that year with 35 extra base hits, including 10 home runs, in 92 games. The 118 strikeouts, meanwhile, drew concern. While he slugged a respectable .430, he chased that with a paltry .225 batting average -- an improvement over his .205 mark in 2015, to be sure, but a concern nonetheless. This sent the young center fielder into a dizzying array of mechanical changes which included big leg kicks, no leg kicks, toe-taps, and small strides. Coaches were in his head about what type of hitter he was. They wanted him to focus on hitting ground balls. Coaches were in his face about bunting for hits. Of all the five tools he possessed, he was asked to utilize his speed above all. Over the next three seasons, he posted a .245/.300/.423 slash line in 255 games. His 723 OPS was 263rd among qualified MLB hitters, trailing players like Niko Goodrum and Danny Valencia in a similar amount of games played. In 2019, Buxton started to simplify his mechanics. There was a return to his original swing -- one he grew comfortable with as an amateur in Georgia -- and he stopped listening to input from others, instead doing what he felt best with and seeking out trusted sources. While limited by injuries, there was a noticeable difference in the collision between the bat and ball. In 2020, his exit velocity and launch angle both jumped. His fly balls now traveled an average of 344 feet. Which brings us to today and Byron Buxton’s unrelenting start to the 2021 season. The contrast between the swing of the number two overall prospect in 2016 and the one from baseball’s current OPS leader is pretty stark. If you happened to tune out between those eras and just see these two products, you would hardly recognize the player. First because of his sheer volume of muscle but also because of the swing movements. The two swings are very different in a lot of ways but here are two aspects that should be highlighted that help explain how he got here: The hands at his forward move. Download attachment: Buxton Hands.png If you look at Buxton’s hands on the left, they still need to move back into the launch position (the point where a hitter moves his hands forward at the ball). Now his hands begin at the launch position. They don’t have to travel backward before going forward. It is closer to where Nelson Cruz and his minimal movement are at. When Buxton’s hands had to travel back, it would cause him to rush through his swing. He is now in go-mode meaning he can react or shut the swing down much easier. It helps his overall timing. The swing path. If you watch enough clips of his swing between then and now, one thing that jumps out is his swing plane. Just by looking at where he finishes with the bat you can see how different the route he took to get there is. Download attachment: Buxton Follow-Through.png In 2016 his swing plane followed a much more merry-go-round path. It was level, likely something that was designed to make contact and hit balls on the ground. Now the swing has become more of a Ferris wheel than a merry-go-round, a motion similar to a hockey slapshot. This might be the point where someone mumbles something about a launch angle swing (which doesn’t exist). He may be trying to hit the ball in the air more now, but he actually has hit ground balls at a higher rate this year than he did in 2016. The difference is that when he hit the ball in the air in 2016, he was often clipping the bottom of the ball instead of driving through it. With the Ferris wheel action, Buxton has increased the vertical angle of the bat, meaning he is going to hit it square instead of hitting part of the bottom. In all of 2016, he hit 10 fly balls/line drives at 105 miles per hour or higher. So far this year he’s already hit 13 of those. In addition to selecting the right pitch and being on time, the square, optimal contact comes from having the right bat approach. What is interesting is that Buxton’s overall approach has not changed that much over the years: He still swings through a high amount of pitches.He still chases a lot of pitches out of the zone.What has changed for Buxton is the contact:Over 66% of his balls in play are hit 95+. Only Giancarlo Stanton has done better.Buxton still pulls the ball but at a much lower rate, choosing to use the middle of the field more (this may be an indication of more optimal backspin and not side or topspin).He has fouled off just 29% of balls on swings this year (one of the lowest in the league and well below his 35% career rate).Another data point that is emerging is how teams are choosing to tangle with this monster:He’s seeing far fewer fastballs this year (42% fastballs, Aaron Judge slugger territory).Just 77% of pitches thrown to him have been considered “competitive” (i.e. within 18 inches of the center of the zone which leads to a decent chance of a swing).What it means is that teams are starting to be afraid of the damage he can do. This version of Byron Buxton is quite different from the one that arrived in Minnesota. It has been a long road but this version has eliminated weaknesses and has become one of the game’s elite hitters. Click here to view the article

This is my entire point in a nutshell. If you continue to hit the ball hard, they will eventually find vacant real estate.

Just making sure you (and others) understand that hitting the ball hard is often a qualifier for getting hits. And getting lots of hits frequently means a high(er) batting average. For example, the Minnesota Twins have the league's highest percentage of batted balls over 95 mph (43.7%) AND the baseball's fourth highest batting average (.253) right now. Pretty crazy considering the bad luck they've had against lefties, huh? Obviously, and I mentioned this in the article, not every hard hit ball becomes a hit but if you do it consistently over a larger sample size, the results are usually positive. Your original comment made it sound as if there is a choice between hitting the ball hard and having a high batting average. I guess what I am asking you then is, what do you propose they change? You don't think they are currently trying to hit the ball AT fielders, right?

your proposal is to, what, AIM it at places the fielders are not standing?

you do understand how hitting the ball hard correlates to a high batting average, right?

I...{logs off}

Left-handed pitching was a bane to the Minnesota Twins’ existence in the shortened 2020 season. Is this trend really going to continue this year?In 2019, the Twins posted a .349 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. Only the Mariners and the Cubs fared worse. It was expected to be an anomaly. After all, almost the exact same lineup walloped lefties with a .521 slugging percentage. What’s more, they anticipated having healthy contributions from Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver. As Aaron Gleeman wrote earlier this month, the 2021 roster was designed with right-handed thump up and down the lineup. “I expect us to be able to put a group out consistently that makes life difficult for left-handed starters,” manager Rocco Baldelli told him. “We can throw some very good right-handed hitters out there, and our goal is to just have good at-bats. … I think right now, where we sit, we should be able to go out there and have those at-bats that we want to have.” The season is just a few weeks old but so far the trend set in 2020 has continued into this season: they are slugging just .347 after the doubleheader in Oakland on Tuesday. Before you panic, consider that Twins hitters are doing almost everything right and not being rewarded appropriately. They have the highest amount of batted balls hit 95 miles per hour or higher (44.9) and they have the second highest exit velocity average (89.7). If you trust the process, then the extra base hits will surely follow. For the analytically optimistic, however, Baseball Savant notes that the expected slugging is closer to .439 which would place them closer to the middle of the pack. What is concerning is that the balls aren’t going anywhere. While they are rocketing off of their bats and the optimal speed (95+) and angle (10-30 degrees), the ones that are hit in the air aren’t traveling. Their fly balls against lefties are averaging 301.4 feet, second lowest in the game. This is not that far off from their 314.4 feet from 2020, to be sure, but it is certainly not headed in the right direction if they wish to improve upon their slugging totals from a year ago. Last year, when they did make that optimal contact, their fly balls averaged 425 feet of travel, highest in baseball. This year it’s just 379.5 feet, 25th out of 30 teams. So far this year lefties have challenged the Twins’ hitters. After staying in the zone just 45.9% of the time in 2020, they are filling it up at a 52.8% clip in 2021, perhaps unafraid of having damage done. Another notable change from last year is how left-handed opponents are using their fastballs against Twins’ hitters. In 2020, they stayed away from the inner-half of the zone (42.7% of fastballs were thrown inner-half, lowest in MLB). This year, they are going inside more often with the fastball (50.3%). It’s difficult to say anything is really driving this decline in distance. It’s possible that the colder weather is playing a role or the new baseball is shaving off a dozen or so feet. Maybe there is too much topspin on their swing. Or a combination of everything. It is still early in the season -- one that will hopefully stretch well beyond last year’s parameters -- so most of the results could be attributed to a small sample size. If they continue to hit the ball hard, the extra base hits will surely follow. But, as Baldelli said, health is the one true wild card for this lineup. With Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz both ailing and Josh Donaldson seemingly on a knife’s edge with every sprint, the ability to hit the ball hard against left-handed pitching could quickly become an issue. Click here to view the article

After being diagnosed with a mild strain in his hamstring, the Twins have moved Josh Donaldson to the 10-day injured list and have recalled Brent Rooker from the taxi squad.Remaining healthy has been a priority for Donaldson. After missing a substantial amount of time in 2020 with calf issues, he reportedly tried to improve his running style and changed his pre-game prep work to avoid aggravating that area. "I wish I was a robot and I wish I could be 100 percent and tell you that I'm great," he told reporters in February. “But it's a sport, and a pretty fast sport. And sometimes things happen." Things indeed happened. Donaldson ripped the third pitch of the 2021 season he saw from Milwaukee’s Bradley Woodruff into the left-center field gap for a double -- a continuation from his spring training performance. Unfortunately, while rounding first, he came up limping and would be removed from the game after the inning. It was his hamstring and not calf, if you are looking for potential positives. "We're very optimistic at how I've responded to this point," Donaldson told reporters on Saturday. The 26-year-old Rooker was 9-for-31 with a 19-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 spring training plate appearances. Click here to view the article

This isn't necessarily true. When you look at his spin rates/release height per game to include 2019, you'll find that his highest spin rate (2,291) came with a lower release points (5.49) in March 2019. His 4th highest spin was also another lower release slot. There's definitely an effect where the more over-the-top the delivery is, the more likely the pitcher's hand is going to generate 12:00 backspin which is going to have less arm side run. But there are plenty of lower arm slot guys who generate a lot of spin (8 of the 10 top spinners in 2019-2020 are sub 5.6) and are still 12:00 backspin guys. It's a matter of the hand position/tilt at release. The Twins have worked with him to tighten his arm circle this offseason -- where the arm action doesn't too far away from the body. The biomechanics guys say this helps a lot with direction and staying through the ball rather than around it (when he's throwing his sinker) when he arm leaks away from his body into the release point. More energy transferred into and through the ball = more spin. https://twitter.com/HagemanParker/status/1367176864603766797/photo/1

Minnesota Twins prospect Twitter went atwitter when video dropped of Louie Varland hitting 100 miles per hour in a February bullpen session. It was an incredible achievement for the North St. Paul graduate. For most of his career, Varland had been in the mid-90s, maxing at 94. In training, his velocity had been increasing but not like this. On that day,he was shooting upper 90s consistently. There were 97s, 98s, 99s, and, finally, there it was: three numbers, a dot, and another number. And it almost didn’t happen.On what was to be his final pitch of the session, Varland hit 99.6 off the mound. It was a fantastic achievement. Had Varland been throwing at Target Field, that 99.6 would be rounded to 100 on the broadcast, an effect that Trevor May called “the TV hundge.” Still, the staff at the facility Varland has trained at begged him for one more pitch. Empty the tank, they said, give it everything and try to clear that barrier. An instructor gave Varland a “velo slap” and the right-hander took a deep breath and let it fly. The iPad read 100.2. The 100-mile-per-hour mark is a mystical and, too often, mythical figure for the Minnesota Twins organization. Since tracking and archiving of velocity began in 2008, the Twins have reached 100-miles-per-hour 16 times. Until 2018, they had only hit it 3 times -- all by the forgettable Juan Morillo. Only the Brewers (13), Indians (13) and Diamondbacks (5) have thrown fewer triple digit fastballs than the Twins. Thankfully, in the last two seasons, Brusdar Graterol (12) and Jorge Alcala (1) helped move the Twins up the velocity leaderboard. Maybe because of this lack of heat at the big league level, whenever a Twins prospect hits one-double-oh -- regardless if it is indoors in the offseason -- it draws attention. In March, Varland returned to face hitters in live at-bats with the goal of reaching that number again. As he warmed up, he threw an effortless 97. It had an incoming sizzle that popped the catcher’s glove like a firecracker. High school players stopped their training and turned their attention to Louie’s cage. In addition to the players and staff, another attendee was Wade Varland, Louie’s father. Wade was tasked with setting up a GoPro on the catcher’s helmet to capture mechanics and pitch movement. But he said his real motivation was to witness his son break the century mark. He had seen the clip circulating and wanted to see him do it up close. Asked at what point he knew he was raising two future professional athletes in Louie and older brother Gus, a member of the Dodgers organization, Wade laughed. There was no high-pressure upbringing to be pros. He had padded mats in the basement and let them run amok and be athletes as kids. He encouraged them to be competitive in all endeavors, having them play football and wrestling. They just happened to like — and eventually excel at — baseball. As the boys got older, Wade tried to keep them hungry. Gus or Louie would spin a breaking ball or dot the corner with a fastball and Wade would just say meh. That didn’t impress him. Hell, if he had a bat in his hands, he’d hit it clear to Washington County, he’d add. His intention was to keep them from becoming complacent. He didn’t want them to settle for pretty good, no matter what path they chose. The key to the entire system, Wade admitted, was never to let a bat get into his hands. He’d sidestep any requests for a challenge, especially when they started to throw harder. As they got older and more cocksure, they’d beg their father to stand in and face them. Let’s see you try to knock it into the next county, they’d ask. Wade knew he didn’t stand a chance. When Gus was in college, after years of dodging pleas and making excuses to avoid a showdown, he was finally able to put a bat into Wade’s hands. They headed to the fieldhouse on Concordia’s campus. Wade was going to face his oldest son in a live AB round. An umpire looking for some preseason work crouched behind the catcher. Players gathered around to watch. This was going to happen officially and publicly. Wade knew he was overmatched. His son was playing in an elite college league for major league worthy prospects and was sitting 92-93. There was no way he was going to redirect anything across any adjacent county lines. Nevertheless, Wade Varland stood in there and competed, just like he had preached to his boys. It was laughable. Gus’s fastballs slammed into the catcher’s mitt and Wade would be starting his swing. This repeated several times. Then, by the grace of baseball’s divine, Wade made contact. It was, as he described it, the latest any swing could have possibly happened, as deep into the zone as physics would allow, but the ball shot off into foul territory. It landed feet — not a county — away but it was contact. The crowd erupted. “It was like I won gold in the Olympics,” Wade said with a chuckle. The reason he went through this charade was because he wanted the boys to keep working, keep improving, and to never be satisfied with where they were at. That lesson seemed to take hold. Both Varland boys found themselves at a small Division II program rather than the prototypical D1 powerhouses. That didn’t stop them from working to get on the radar of professional teams. That mindset may explain why the younger Varland, Louie, was not settling for the 99.6 and looking to hit that hundo. Louie credits the Twins’ pitching development for unlocking this extra gear. After being drafted in the 15th round, he entered the minor league system at Elizabethton in 2019. He made three outings and started to feel discomfort in his elbow and forearm. A barrage of tests showed no signs of torn ligaments. The Twins asked him to make some adjustments to his mechanics hoping it would help him feel better and unlock some velocity. “I had elbow climb that took my arm above my shoulder plane,” Louie said, demonstrating where his release point was and, through adjusting it by training with connection and plyo balls, where it is now (several inches lower). Elbow climb is considered an inefficient movement and leads to a pushing action, zapped velocity, and potentially injuries. Now his arm action follows a more optimal path, mirroring his shoulder rotation. When he rotates, his elbow and forearm follow his shoulder plane rather than rising above it. He said the delivery feels more natural. Download attachment: image_6483441.JPG On the left, Varland pitching for the Willmer Stingers in 2019. On the right, Varland at Starters Sports Training in February 2020. Notice how much lower the elbow is compared to his head level. With the new release point comes added challenges. At the lower point, he has to try to keep on top of the fastball to maintain a high vertical break and he’s refining his slider’s movement from the new angle. Those are two of his focuses this spring. That, and sustaining the upper 90s velocity over longer stretches. He knows he still has a long way to go. The 100 mile per hour pitch in the great indoors is fine but it’s a far cry from repeating it on the mound in a game situation. For now, the ball keeps firing out of his hand. During the live ABs, Varland wasn’t able to show his dad the 100 mile per hour pitch -- Wade would have to settle for a 99er. The Stalker radar gun set up behind home plate registered 97s and 98s. The Rapsodo caught one at 99 while his fastball maxed out over 20 inches of vertical break (the latter datapoint excited Louie since his previous range was closer to 17 inches).

Texas is the worst.

Twin Cities baseball fans will get an early look at one of their professional teams: The St. Paul Saints begin the 2021 season two days ahead of the Minnesota Twins. The Toby Gardenhire-led Saints will officially begin their first season as the Twins’ top affiliate on April 6th at CHS Field against Cleveland's AAA club, the Columbus Clippers.The Clippers will stay in St. Paul for a six-game series. The league announced that each series will be six games, with games being played from Tuesday through Sunday. Monday will be a league-wide off-day, allowing the players to stay fresh and reduce travel overall. The Saints recently announced that they will play in the Midwest Division of the Triple-A East League. While the Saints are scheduled to face all of the Midwest Division teams in 2021, Because of travel and COVID-19 concerns, the Saints, Iowa Cubs and Omaha Storm Chasers will not play teams outside of the Midwest Division this year. Overall, the Saints will have a 142-game schedule that stretches from April 6th through September 19th and will be divided between 70 at CHS Field and 72 games on the road. More details on start times will be announced at a later date. Download attachment: Saints Schedule.png Click here to view the article

Interestingly, Byron Buxton had 7 of his 13 home runs tagged as "no doubters" by Statcast. That was the second-highest on the team outside of Cruz. Miguel Sano hit his an average of 412 feet. Buxton hit his an average of 409 feet. Buxton is surprisingly strong. Now Polanco...just one of his 4 home runs were of the "no doubt" variety and the average travel was 361, 4th lowest in all of baseball. If the ankle injury isn't driving his lack of power, then the new ball will hurt him in 2021.

I'll add this to the conversation since it was on the cutting room floor of my post: We expect 40-year-old players to decline because that's what 40-year-olds do. Since 1970, there are about 25 seasons in which players have had above-average wOBAs. When you looked back at the list of qualified players who were age-40 or older, most of those seasons took place in the 1980s-1990s when older players weren't quickly removed for the younger, more affordable ones. Perhaps, too, the growth of research also made teams realize that the risk of having 40-year-olds as everyday players was often a losing proposition. There have only been 9 seasons since 2010 of 40-year-old or older players receiving at least 300 plate appearances (88 total since 1970). Four of those seasons belong to Ichiro (2) and Raul Ibanez (2). The most recent one was from Carlos Beltran in 2017. The amount of preparation that today's players receive compared to those even 10-15 year ago is far superior. The way that players took care of themselves in the 1980s and 1990s looks quaint. The amount of science applied to every aspect of their training and condition is absurd. What’s more, the amount of work Nelson Cruz puts in is even more absurd. Even compared to his younger teammates. From the nutrition, training and recovery standpoint, I’d wager that not one of the names prior to 2000 had the same experience as Cruz. With that in mind, is performance at 40 really that difficult to maintain? Are teams valuing and projecting older players with a bias when you are drawing from a limited pool of players, most of whom had their careers in an era where the training and conditioning isn’t even a fraction as comparable to today’s standards? Are teams pushing out players because of cost while some still have productive years remaining? Is there an undervalued market there? There’s no question that skills erode with age. Not every player is going to reach their late-30s let alone their 40s. The question is, with the modern training systems in place, how much better can an aging player be compared to that of the ones from 10-to-20 years ago?