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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    The thing with Apple is it has a mountain of cash yeah, and most times when it dips into it, its to buyback shares. $40b in buybacks since 2014 but the stock price has... stayed flat. And now margins on its phones are shrinking, sales are slowing. Seems like Apple has to find a more profitable way to invest that cash than itself, because itself isn't as profitable as it used to be.
  2. Willihammer
    I have lost a lot of (unrealized) value in China too, because I'm not a disciplined buyer and bought at the height of the bubble. I really need to take my own advice and stick to the CAPE guide more closely. Should probably sell some US stocks while I'm at it, which for me is a mostly VDE, Apple, and VBK.
  3. Willihammer
    Something to keep in mind. http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation This page updates quarterly. RSX, FXI, EWZ, might be good buys right now.
  4. Willihammer
    That's awesome you've gotten that kind of return but a 5-year sample size for one portfolio is way too small to judge someone smarter than the market. Most research on the topic suggests on average you will underperform the broader market after expenses, on any kind of meaningful sample size (25+ years) with an advisor. Even a guy like Warren Buffet, its debatable whether he possesses any actual skill or is just the anomaly way out on the bell curve who has gotten extremely lucky for the last 50+ years.
  5. Willihammer
    Kintzler, Nunez, and Grossman were mentioned as under the radar possibilities on MLBTR today. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/ten-under-the-radar-trade-candidates.html
  6. Willihammer
    Fair enough. Its safe to say Mauer's best days are behind him. It still seems premature to me to say that his new mean is a .730 batter. The concussion recovery being a big wildcard here. I still hold out hope that he can settle in at the high .700s despite the last 15 months. YMMV.
  7. Willihammer
    Is that based on any research or just personal preference? I would be curious to know. I know there was an article written a few years ago on fangraphs that looked at "inconsistent" pitchers including Liriano, and the conclusion was that streakiness amongst SPs was actually preferred to consistency. I wonder if the same is true of hitters.
  8. Willihammer
    I just can't get worked up over a 2 month stretch of .670 hitting. Yeah its not great but that's just baseball. You get hot, then get cold. Its where you wind up that matters more. If he finishes the year batting in the .718 range again I'll be complaining but he could easily get hot again and wind up in the .775 range which would be fine. Also, Mauer's glove is solid IMO. He regularly makes difficult plays look routine, eg. the over the shoulder catch last night.
  9. Willihammer
    HOOTERS BABY!
  10. Willihammer
    Steve Stone, "As good of footwork that Suzuki has, he does not have an overpoweringly strong arm."
  11. Willihammer
    Berardino wrote that last fall. May relieved this spring, got the back spasms again, and now... what? Back to relief?
  12. Willihammer
    http://i.imgur.com/YjXK1qP.jpg
  13. Willihammer
    Gotta get this guy up against the lefty http://i.imgur.com/AW1Jugo.jpg
  14. Willihammer
    Snot running down his nose
  15. Willihammer
    Swinging thru strike three with meh intent
  16. Willihammer
    Think if we pull a Twins jersey over Swarzak and point him to the mound for mop up duty, anyone will notice?
  17. Willihammer
    We... we found the antidote, and its name is Neil Ramirez!
  18. Willihammer
    Maybe he was thinking, double cutoff? http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view5/2760783/manny-cutoff-throw-o.gif
  19. Willihammer
    LOL. Tanaka is a stud. Park will be okay. Kepler should be embarrassed.
  20. Willihammer
    I think it is fair to have high expectations of Rosario. Any idiot can take a pitch, its not a skill. But players need to understand why its important to work deep counts, and it doesn't look like many of them do. Maybe coaches could do more in that regard. The league bats 1.796 in 3-0 counts, and 1.366 in 3-1, .976 in 2-0. If I were Jake Mauer, I'd move the goalposts away from "drive the ball" to "get to those counts." The aggressiveness will take over from there, it doesn't need encouragement, and the walks will follow incidentally, as they should. Pair that with an emphasis on 2-strike hitting in order to keep strikeouts in check.
  21. Willihammer
    Probably wise to keep that in mind. The Twins could just be gauging trade interest at this point. Also this is helpful: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/dfatracker Tim Federowicz at the top of that list. 28 y/o catcher with a .910 OPS in 1100 AAA PAs anyone? He also has not been given much of a chance at the MLB level.
  22. Willihammer
    Twins' talent evaluators have been in lockstep with the rest of the league for some time now. Since they are currently the worst team in baseball and Arcia the last man on the roster, we can be confident no other team will claim him if he reaches waivers. Not.
  23. Willihammer
    Who else is just hoping for another small meltdown by Plouffesy after the inveitable strikeout. Maybe a thrown bat or someothing. #voteTwins
  24. Willihammer
    Why is this guy not the GM of the Twins right now? Or, yesterday?
  25. Willihammer
    Park is on pace to be a ~2.5 WAR player this year. Assume that is his true talent, factor in decline, and you're looking at about 4.5 to 5 surplus WAR over the life of his contract. Plus a team option. That should be an attractive chip for someone that needs a RH bat / 1B at the deadline I would think.
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