Supfin99

I think Nick is getting a really bad rap and it seems like fans always want to be so quick to jump off the band wagon. All that has happened so far is that Nick had a really bad 3 month at Rochester. In a quarter of the season at Chattanooga last year Nick had 10 doubles, 3 triples and 5 homers while having a slash line of .333/.381.525. Those extra base numbers would total 40 doubles, 12 triples and 20 homers over a full season. That is an iso power of .192 which is excellent. Thru June 7th at Rochester he still had an OPS above .800. In the 1st half of 2017 over 64 games Gordon put up 21 doubles, 6 triples and 6 homers. That would equate to 50 doubles, 15 triples and 15 homers over a full season. His slash line in that 1st half was .315/.376/.504. Those power and OBP number look just fine to me. I think this more a case that Gordon really wears down in the 2nd half of seasons. That isn’t totally uncommon for young players, especially ones Gordon’s size. It is also something that can improve as he matures and gains strength. I really expect Nick to get off to a great start this year in Rochester like has has in every other year.

I just read the article on here about punting the 2019 season. I don’t understand this narrative and get so frustrated by it. Money is not a cure all when it comes to building a team. I say this knowing I wrote an article a month ago where I discussed my frustration that the Twins didn’t spend more in the mid 2000’s to augment the team. But the difference was then you had guys like Mauer, Moreau, Hunter, Cuddyer. Santana and Nathan in their prime and they were among the best at their positions in baseball. I am all for spending money if it’s done strategically. Right now the Twins don’t know what they have. They need to find out. That means taking a breath and see if Sano and Buxton have figured things out. Can Kepler take the next step everyone believes is there? Can Berrios fine tune and become an ace. Can Gibson and Rosario prove that last year is the normal career average for them? What other young guy can step up in the rotation and bullpen like Berrios and Taylor Rogers? What can Polanco do over a full season? Can Schoop bounce back? These are all questions that will decide if the Twins win the central in 2019. (Which I believe they will) if some or most of these things don’t happen signing Keuchel or Kimbrel will not matter. I am all for spending the Pohlads money as they are one of the richest families in America. But I want it done strategically and not at he cost of giving someone else a chance. Spending the money this season when there are so many unanswered questions doesn’t seem to make sense. Also Keuchel seems like a repeat of past signings such as Nolasco and Santana. Santana is considered the best FA signing we have ever had and he had exactly 2 good years out of 4. Keuchel is probably better than those 2 but he has 4 straight years of declining peripherals and just turned 31. Is this the guy we want to be paying 5/100 or even 4/72 for? I want that spot in the rotation to go to a low risk high reward guy like Perez or even better to a young guy like Gonzalves, Thorpe, Romero, Stewart or Mejia. These guys need to be given a chance to see if they can be a valuable piece to the next great Twins team. Let this season play out. See how the still young guys perform. Do some of these questions get answered yes? I really like our chances of that. The great thing about Sano and Buxton is we don’t even need them to be the MVP caliber players we thought they were going to be when they were dominating the minors. If Buck hits .225 with a .650 OPS, he still is a 5 WAR player due to his all world defense. Sano can be 80% of what he was as a rookie and still be very valuable. The strike outs are always going to be there but get back to showing some patience, having some semblance of a plan at the plate. This will lead to lots of walks and 30 plus homers. Like I said earlier everyone expects Kepler to have another level. His strikeout and walk percentages are great as his line drive rate and batted balls speed. Now we just need his actual counting stats to match his peripheral stats. If Odorizzi can pitch a little closer to his career averages the Twins will have 3 above average pitchers in the rotation with a wild card in Pineda. They will have plenty of options at Rochester to cover for injuries and disappointments. The lineup is already deeper than any I’ve seen us field in years. If the year goes well and we get a few positive answers then next year is when you spend the money. Resign Gibson if he has another year like 2018. At least qualify him so you get the draft pick. Go out and offer Gerrit Cole 6/210 to lead your rotation. If Romero isn’t your stud closer go out and get one. Like I said I’m all for spending money. Just do it at the right time and place. Quick side note, spending money is always the quick route most fans want to see done. It goes hand in hand with making trades to immediately improve the team even if it robs the future. I was looking back at one of my posts from last year regarding a Nick Nelson article about trading for Realmuto. I said at the time I thought it would be a huge mistake. The offer proposed was Kirilloff, Graterol and another top 10-15 prospect. Let’s say that 3rd prospect was say Ryan Jeffers because Miami wanted a catcher, yes I know it would show up as a PTBNL until he was able to be traded. Would anyone think that was a good trade for us now? Giving up our best pitching prospect, a top 15 prospect in all of baseball and another top 10 Twins prospect for 2 season of Realmuto. Would a catcher make us a favorite to win the WS this year? Or even to win the Central? No and very doubtful would be the answers. We would also be getting lambasted by the entire industry for making that trade. I’m not ripping on Nick, him and Seth are my 2 favorite writers on Twins Daily. I’m just saying it gets easy to go for the Get rich Quick scheme versus taking your time.

I love those lefty right splits of Austin and Cave. That is tremendous production.

In Part one we covered to injuries that had a massive affect on this era of Twins teams. I didn't even get into the concussions that derailed both Morneau's and Mauers careers. In Part 2 we will cover what I consider personnel decisions that range from bad to ridiculous to borderline criminal. The first one I want to cover is the one I alluded to when discussing Jason Kubel's injury. Kubel was a very solid outfielder before the injury, even playing some centerfield. His range after the injury was greatly reduced. In looking for better production in LF the Twins made a bad trade after the 2007 season. The Twins sent Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay for Delmon Young and Brendon Harris. Delmon was famously the number 1 overall pick in 2003 and was considered the top prospect in baseball for several seasons. In his first full season he had slashed .290/.336/.405 with 21 doubles and 12 homers in roughly 3 quarters of a season. He finished 2nd in the ROY voting. Delmon would go on to have 1 really good and 2 below average season for the Twins while playing horrendous defense in LF. He would be traded during the 2011 season. Harris would have 2 nondescript seasons for the Twins. Garza and Bartlet would go to Tampa Bay and were huge reasons why the Rays went to the World Series in 2008. Before being traded Bartlet had hit .309/.367/.393 and .265/.339/.361 in his previous 2 seasons for the Twins. He had 3 seasons of team control left and was only 27 at the time the trade. Bartlet would hit .286/.329/.361 and .320/.389/.490 for the Rays in the next 2 seasons while garnering MVP votes in 2008 and making the All Star team in 2009. Garza was 24 at the time of the trade and entering his 1st full season 5 seasons of team control remaining. Garza had been solid for the Twins when called up during 2008 season with an ERA+ of 117 and an FIP of 4.17. He definitely showed promise. Over the next 4 season from 2008 to 2011 for the Rays and then the Cubs after being traded he would average 200 innings per year and had ERA+ of 119, 110, 100 and 118. He was absolutely the type of above average innings eater that the Twins craved during these years. To add a little salt to the wound Garza was traded for Chris Archer among others when he was sent to the Cubs after the 2010 season. The next decision is still hard for me to think about. David Ortiz was non tendered after the 2002 season. We all know what Big Papa went on to a HOF career for the Red Sox leading them to 3 World Series titles. This is not a case of 20/20 rear view vision. The release of Ortiz made no sense at the time. He had struggled to stay healthy at times, wasn't in the greatest shape and clashed with TK. But there was no reason to non tender him. In his final year for the Twins Ortiz had hit .272/.339/.500 with 32 doubles and 20 homers. His OPS was .839 and OPS+ was 120. He was just 26 years old. He was one of the few Twins that showed plus power. It isn't like the Twins had some huge prospect they needed to make room for. Mathew LeCroy received most of the DH at bats in 2003. He had a respectable .832 OPS. But it doesn't mean there wasn't at least room for a platoon with Ortiz batting against righties and LeCroy vs lefties. The Twins would struggle to get production from the DH position for the next decade while Ortiz was crushing for the Red Sox. The Twins trotted out luminaries as Jose Offerman, Rondell White and Jason Tyner as designate hitters during this time. In 2006 while White was putting up a .641 OPS, Ortiz was hitting 54 homers and knocking in 137 RBI. Instead of non tendering Ortiz you should have been signing him to an extension. The 2006 batting order could have been Luis Castillo 2B, .358 OBP. Jason Bartlett SS .367 OBP, Joe Mauer C .936 OPS .429 OBP, David Ortiz 1.049 OPS 54 HR, Justin Morneau 1B .936 OPS 34 HR, Torii Hunter .826 OPS 31 HR, Jason Kubel LF .800 OPS 25 HR (Projected) Michael Cuddyer .867 OPS 24 HR, Nick Punto 3B .352 OBP Lack of reasonable extensions and filling the bottom parts of the roster. Terry Ryan hated spending the Pohlads money. I truly believe he did this because he looked it as badge of honor that the Twins could compete with a budget that often times was less than half of the big boys. I liked this fact too. I'm not advocating doubling the payroll during this period, But a well placed additional 10 to 15 million dollars per season could have done wonders. Ryan was very leery to go past 4 years for contacts even for his best players. Santana, Hunter, Mauer and Morneau all signed similar 4 year deals that contained no options. Meanwhile the rest of the industry was signing guys to 6 and sometimes even longer deals. If Santana had been offered a 6 year deal at market value there is a strong chance he would have taken it. This would have you allowed to have him for 2 to 3 more years of his prime. Same for Torii Hunter. You would have had Mauer signed thru 2012 originally and not been forced to sign him to a monster extension after his incredible 2009 season. I know small market teams cannot afford to get stuck in long expensive contracts but all 4 of these guys were young when they signed there 1st big contracts but already had proven track records of excellent production. They were all worth the risk of longer extensions. A longer contract can have good and bad risks. Sometimes the market grows so quickly that a contract is outdated by the time it is up. Sometimes it turns out like Mike Hampton. In the case of Mauer, the Twins could actually have saved millions of dollars by signing him to a longer more expensive extension the 1st time. By the time Mauer would have been a free agent after say a 6 year contract he would have already moved to first base. His next contract would have paled in comparison to the 8 year deal he signed in 2009. Longer contracts would have allowed the Twins to keep Santana's and Hunter's services farther into their primes. It was always frustrating to see the Twins fill out the rosters with the fillers all making near the league minimum or signing hope and a prayer types. Too many rejects like the cast covered earlier that played DH, plus all the middle infielders, relief pitchers and 5th starters that they brought in. If they would have sent just a little money on a few free agents they could have extended the quality of their lineup, bullpen and/or rotation. With better decision making and injury luck I really believe this era of Twins could have been a dynasty that won multiple championships. The top end talent was just so good. In Santana, Nathan, Mauer, Morneau and Hunter they had 5 of the best 20 players in baseball all in their prime at the same time. With better decisions and luck you could have added Kubel, Liriano and Ortiz to that list. No team in baseball could have matched a group of high end talent like that. A lineup that boasts Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, Ortiz, Cuddyer and Kubel reads like an all star game. This would have been the best lineup in the majors even if you had Seth playing SS, Arron at 3B and Nick at 2nd. A rotation led by Santana and Liriano would have been favored in any series against any opponent during the playoffs in this time. The rest of the rotation spots would have been filled by pitchers such as Brad Radke, Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Carlos Silva and Nick Blackburn during different years. Just imagine all the 10 year, 20 year and 25 year anniversaries we could celebrate for championships in 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2010. Oh what could have been.

This is probably the most sustained successful era of any Twins team. This time period of the Twins made more playoff appearances and won more division titles, partly due to the expanded playoffs. The 1965 to 1970 Twins would have made the playoffs in 5 out of 6 years with a similar play-off format. These Twins teams won 6 division titles and made 7 trips to the playoffs in 9 years. But, as we know in all of those playoff years they made it to the ALCS just once and never to the World Series. This team had amazing top end talent. They had arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana from 2004 to 2008. Joe Nathan was considered by most to be the 2nd best reliever in the game during this stretch behind the great Mariano Rivera. They had the best overall catcher in the game, the best hitting catcher in the game and perennial MVP candidate in Joe Mauer. They had one of the best first basemen who could do everything. Justin played solid first base, could hit for average and power plus drew 60 to 70 walks a year. Their centerfielder was also one of the best in the game. Torii Hunter was a human highlight reel on defense and averaged 25 homers a season from 2002 thru his final season with the Twins in 2007. They also had a very solid RFer in Michael Cuddyer who had 3 years of OPS+ over 120 during this stretch The bullpen had solid members during these years with guys like Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerier, JC Romero and others. The rotation was augmented by a Brad Radke on the back stretch of his career as well as the early years of high draft picks Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Matt Garza. So what happened? How could a team with 5 of the absolute best players in baseball at their respective positions and some decent complement pieces never even make a World Series let alone win one? There are 2 reasons why. This team was doomed by injuries and some very bad personnel decisions. Let's start with the injuries. The biggest one was when Francisco Liriano blew out his elbow in Aug of 2006. Liriano was having an amazing season before he was injured. 12-3, 2.16 ERA, only 6.6 hits and 2.4 walks per 9 for a WHIP of 1. He was fanning 10.7 per 9 innings. He was absolutely dominant including winning a showdown with the Houston Astros and Roger Clemens on national TV. On June 7th the Twins were 25-33. Liriano had just been put into the starting rotation a few weeks earlier. They than proceeded to go 25-2 over the next month with Liriano and Santana leading the way. Twins were on their way to winning 96 games this year. This team absolutely wins the World Series over Detroit or St Louis that season if Liriano stays healthy. Liriano would have been able to combine with Santana for a dynamic one two punch for the next several seasons. They would have led the rotation that the Twins could have rounded out with the likes of Baker and Garza. Liriano also could have taken over Santana's place as ace once Santana started to decline. The second big injury happened a few years before this but definitely not only impacted the 2006 season but this entire era as well as some of the personnel decisions that doomed these teams. A lot of people forget or don't realize how good Jason Kubel was as a minor leaguer. His minor league stats are on par with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Jason was a 12th rd pick by the Twins in 2000 out of high school. In his 1st full season at Low A Quad Cities he slashed .321/.380/.521 with 26 doubles and 14 homers and didn't turn 20 until the season was almost half over. He had nearly as many walks (41) as strikeouts (48). He really busted out in 2004. At AA New Britain he hit .377/.453/.667 for an OPS of 1.119. He was just as good when promoted to AAA Rochester hitting .343/.398/.560. His AAA power stats projected to 50 doubles and 29 homers over a full season. He only struck out 10.7% of the time and walked .8.9% of the time. He was also a very good athlete stealing 16 bases in those 90 games. In the Arizona Fall League that year Kubel suffered a horrific knee injury during a collision while chasing a pop up. Kubel would miss all of 2005. Kubes went on to have a solid career peaking in 2009 with 28 homers and a .907 OPS. His minor league career showed that his best season may have been closer to his prime averages instead of a borderline outlier season. The 2006 team gave 677 at bats to Lew Ford, Jason Tyner and Shannon Stewart as outfielders. A healthy 24 year old Kubel in his 2nd full season would have dwarfed there stats while also playing a solid left field. The Twins would struggle to get production from LF for the next several season including using a much less athletic Kubel there. This injury not only affected Twins teams in 2005 thru 2008 but it also led them to make a trade to fill the void in LF. I will cover this trade along with a few other disastrous personnel decisions in part 2. There is no doubt in my mind that the 2006 Twins would have been World Champs if Liriano and Kubel don't get injured. They also would have been set up to contend for additional championships in subsequent years with a healthy and dynamic Kubel and Liriano.

Would a lineup of Kepler at 1B and Cave in RF be a downgrade from Cron at 1B and Kepler in RF? I honestly don't know the answer to that? Cron is considered an average glove guy at best while Cave played CF so I would imagine he would cover a decent amount of ground in right. I think it is just as likely to upgrade 2 spots defensively as downgrade them. With Kepler's excellent athleticism I think he would be very good at first with practice. He is definitely a better athlete that Cron and just as tall.

Going into the offseason I thought that signing Matt Adams would be a perfect pairing with Tyler Austin. Then we claimed C.J. Cron, which I didn’t think made a ton of sense when I read he was also right handed. The more I looked at it I am fine with the pick up. Cron is a pretty low risk addition and if he comes even close to matching last years production he will be well worth the 4.8 mil. But it got me to thinking about how you parcel up playing time. You now have 2 RH bats for 1B and DH and no lefty to platoon with them. Twins also have a solid 4th OF in Jake Cave who showed signs last year that he can be an above average major leaguer. I started looking at different playing time options and I really liked what it looked like if you played Max Kepler some at 1B. If you give Max 60 starts at 1B it opens up those starts in right for Cave. Penciling in 20 starts in left and center to give Eddie and Byron some off days puts Cave at 100 starts for the season and probably 450 at bats. That is a solid amount of playing time to see if he can improve on his rookie year. I still believe that Kepler has a gear we haven’t seen yet in the majors. I keep wait9ng for a season like he had at Chattanooga. He is very athletic and has the ability to be an outstanding first basemen. This leaves 264 starts at 1B and DH to divvy up. If Cron is a better fielder than Austin then you can give all 102 remaining starts at 1B to Cron. The DH at bats will de divided up based on a couple of things. 1st is how many starts at 3B you can count on Sano for. If he is truly getting in as good as shape as early reports indicate maybe we can get 120 starts at 3B from Miguel. That would be ideal. Give Sano another 20 starts at DH. That leaves 142 starts at DH. I would still like to give Tyler Austin a chance to show his power can play. I know he has contact issues but he looks like a guy that could hit 30 HR a year with playing time. If you have home 100 starts at DH you would still have 40 starts to give Cron. At the end of the season you would still have what should be your starters all getting 140 plus starts. Plus you would be able to get 2 intruiging young players (Cave and Austin) plenty of opportunity with 100 starts each. With this additional time we may find out that Cave is really meant to be a bench guy that makes spot starts, Austin can only start 30 to 40 times a year against lefty’s and Cron is the next LoMo. If that is the case, later this year or next you can plug Rooker, Raley and potentially Kirillof into these spots. Kirillof is the other reason I think the Twins should find out now if Max can play a solid 1B.

I will start this by admitting I have changed my tune on this topic a little bit. At the start of the offseason I really wanted the Twins to sign 2 arms for the bullpen. My top 2 choices were Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria. I thought Kelly looked about as dominant as could be in playoffs last year. So yesterday when Kelly signed with the Dodgers for 3/25 at first I was extremely disappointed. To me that didn't seem like outrageous money. Than I started reading more and the reviews weren't that positive of the deal. Plus Kelly is a SoCal boy and wee would have had to over pay the Dodgers by a good amount to get him. Once I got over my initial disappointment I looked at remaining options, both free agents and internal. The way the top off the bullpen sets up now is Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Addison Reed and Trevor Hildenberger as the top 4. May showed dynamic stuff pitching at the end of last year and is now 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery. I believe he is primed for a big year. Rogers was about as good as can be last year and am hopeful he can replicate it this year. Reed hopefully was injured for large part of the season and is now healthy. If he can back to his career averages before last year it would be a huge upgrade. Hildenberger struggled for really the first time in his career after the all star break. He needs to get back to where he was. This leaves 3 to 4 spots in the bullpen. The Star Tribune wrote an interesting article about moving Fernando Romero to the bullpen. If Romero really can't develop a 3rd pitch, his fastball slider combo would be devastating as either a closer or a setup man. If you pencil Romero in the pen you now are down to 2 or 3 spots. If you look at internal options for these spots there you have Gabriel Moya, Tyler Duffy and Chase Dejong who pitched with the team last year. You have the Rochester guys including John Curtis and Jake Reed. Lastly you have the starters who lose the battle for the 5th position among Kohl Stewart, Adalberto Mejia and Zach Littrell. Moya seemed to figure things out at the major league level as the season went along. Duffy and DeJong both had their moments. I really believe it is time for the Twins to find out what they have in Curtiss and Reed. They both have accomplished all they can at Rochester. They need a shot to see if their numbers can translate to Minneapolis. The starters who miss out on 5th spot are a really interesting area. Stewart actually had more success than I thought he would as a starter at the end of last season. For several years I have wondered how his stuff would play if he only had to pitch an inning or 2 at a time out of the pen. If he gets the usual 2 to 3 mile velocity bump he is now looking at a FB that could consistently reach 97 as well as his 1 seamer that can sink and a potential wipe out slider. That is a repertoire that could be dynamic out of the pen. Mejia is another option who could be outstanding out of the pen in smaller outings. So you have the 4 guys at the top who are pretty much written in ink. To fill the other 3 to 4 spots you have 8 options. All 8 of these options have major league experience. Some such as Romero and Stewart could have tremendous upside. Derek Falvey has already stated that he wants to look at internal options. He didn't specifically mention the bullpen for this strategy but I really hope they do. I want to see what some of these guys can do before we lose them.

I absolutely do not want them to deal Kirilloff and Romero for 2 years of Realmuto, let alone Royce Lewis. The Nationals are in the hunt for a World Series and have every reason to make a move like this but won’t do it. We are not in a position this year and most likely not next year to contend for a WS. High end pitchers like Romero are exactly the type we have struggled to develop for the past decade and now we want to trade him away when he’s on the precipice of being a key part of big league rotation? No thanks. Especially not for 2 years of a player. Also I really like Realmuto and he’s having a fantastic 1st half but he also has nearly 1500 at bats prior to this year that says he is a .750 OPS guy. Mitch Garner has .717 OPS in his rookie year and had a .900 OPS season to his credit in the minors. I’d much rather have Kirilloff at 1st, Romero as our number 2 starter and Garver as our starting Cather in 2020 than a soon to be free agent in Realmuto.

Name me a team that is won a world series after signing a big name FA pitcher to be the frontline of their staff? The only 2 I can think of is Yankees with Sabathia and Cubs with Lester. My counterargument to both of those is that Lester was compliment and a finishing touch to a team that already a world series caliber lineup and pitchers like Arrietta. The Yankees won in Sabathia's 1st year in NY. He was a stud. For the near decade after that championship the Yankees have as many non playoff seasons as playoff seasons. Overpaying for pitching on the free agent market only guarantees one thing. At some point you will regret signing the player. It certainly does not guarantee a world series.

This is exactly what I would do. You don't need to give 32 yr olds 5 yr extensions and Brian is not going to take a 2 or 3 yr deal. He demanded only a 4 yr ext and he got it. He didn't do it as a favor to his favorite organization as I saw one reader suggest. He did it because he got millions guaranteed and lost no free agency years. It was a no brainer for him. Thru arbitration he would have made more than he ended up signing for but it would have been no where near 114 mil. He is is the epitome of reasons why teams have to develop their own cheap, controllable talent. Extend Brian the qualifying offer, when he turns it down and signs a 5 yr deal for a east or west coast team take the compensation and plug Gordon in.

Here are the stats for a player who I think would be a valid comparison for Buxton. This guy was top prospect CF who massively really struggled his 1st few seasons. Even in his 3rd year he struggled to stay in lineup consistently and the average was still poor. Now as a 26 year old with 1000 career bats under his belt he is a borderline superstar. G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 37 107 95 18 18 5 0 3 10 2 0 10 31 .189 .280 .337 .617 68 127 423 384 45 76 19 2 1 30 8 0 31 121 .198 .265 .266 .531 49 74 255 221 43 55 17 4 10 43 3 0 27 69 .249 .335 .498 .832 120 106 437 384 65 110 26 6 17 62 7 1 44 89 .286 .368 .518 .887 130 I'm not saying that this guarantees Buxton will develop this way but it at least points out that it is possible to mightily struggle and still develop into a very good player. Last thing this guy didn't even make his debut until he was 23, 20 months older than when Buxton made his debut. Players name Jackie Bradley

Hey just saw you posted this right before I did. Didn't mean to basically restate the same message. Guess great minds do think alike.

On May 24th the Twins dropped to 11-34 after a 7-4 loss to the Royals. At that point they were the worst team in baseball by a wide margin. This was their lineup and averages after that day. Núñez 2B 5 0 1 0 0 1 17 .303 .338 .447 Mauer 1B 4 0 1 1 1 1 21 .270 .381 .377 Sanó DH 5 0 0 0 0 3 17 .219 .321 .394 Plouffe 3B 4 0 0 0 0 2 16 .252 .275 .383 Grossman LF 3 1 0 0 1 1 18 .400 .500 .733 Arcia RF 3 2 2 0 0 1 12 .233 .313 .395 Escobar SS 4 0 3 1 0 0 14 .267 .300 .324 Centeno C 3 0 0 0 0 1 10 .269 .296 .462 This was their lineup and averages after last nights game. Dozier 2B 5 3 2 3 1 1 20 .261 .339 .499 Mauer 1B 5 2 4 4 1 0 29 .277 .377 .411 Kepler RF 4 2 2 2 1 0 19 .263 .347 .560 Sanó DH 3 0 0 0 2 2 29 .238 .332 .443 Rosario CF 5 1 3 3 0 0 25 .259 .280 .420 Escobar SS 5 0 1 1 0 0 14 .270 .293 .404 Polanco 3B 3 1 1 0 1 0 15 .298 .370 .574 Centeno C 4 1 1 0 1 1 23 .257 .296 .376 D. Santana LF 5 3 1 0 0 0 14 .260 .301 .362 Since that game in May when the Twins bottomed out the Twins are 32-30. There are obvious reasons as to why they have played so much better. We replaced Arcia with Kepler and that has been a huge upgrade. Mauer, Dozier, Rosario, Suzuki, Escobar and even Sano have all raised their OPS by at least 50 points since then. We have gotten slightly better pitching especially from Santana. We replaced the black hole of Jepsen as the closer with the quiet consistency of Kinzler. I hear a lot of talk about next year. That there is no way that the Twins can go from the 70 wins they are probably going to win in 2016 to 85 in 2017. Your view on that probably depends on which 2016 version is closer to the real Twins team. Is it the team that got off to a horrendous start? Couldn't get a clutch hit to save it's life. If they pitched well they couldn't hit, if they hit they couldn't pitch. If they somehow got to the late innings with a lead the bullpen imploded. I have been a Twins fan for 30 years and can never remember a start to the season like this one. Or are they the team that has played pretty decent baseball for the last 2 months. If you extrapolated their 2 games over .500 over the whole season they would be tied with Seattle and 4.5 games out of the wild card on pace for 83 wins. If the Twins continue to play solid baseball for the final 2 months they will finish with around 72 wins. That will mean they finished 3 quarters of the season with a 61-55 record. I am personally an eternal optimist when it comes to Minnesota sports and that colors my opinions some times. But if they can erase a truly horrific 1st quarter with a very solid 3 quarters I am going to put more faith on the bigger sample size. There are obviously moves that need to take place for the Twin to contend next year but there is definite hope. Especially when you look at some of the wins over the last month. Taking 3 out of 4 at Texas who had best record in MAerican league at time. Going 5-5 on a 10 game road trip to Cleveland, Detroit and Boston, 3 of the top 5 teams in the American league. Just pummeling Cleveland and going for a franchise 1st 4 game sweep in Cleveland today. Lot of reasons to think the Twins could contend next year.

This has become a huge issue, especially with Buster Olney. First let me say that I love reading Olney's stuff, he's one of my favorite baseball writers. Plus he's a huge Vikings fan to boot. But I really disagree with him on this. As a 30 plus year Twins fan I've seen a lot if bad baseball played by my favorite team. The 4 straight years that the Twins lost 90 plus games before breaking the streak last year were not fun. But I'm the fan that wants to see my team win championships, not try to finish above .500. In those 4 years I had no interest in bringing in the kind of guys that Buster always talks about. Major leaguers with 4 to 8 years of experience that will cost a few million a season and will slightly improve your team. I don't care if the Twins win 66 or 72 games a year. If they are bad just be bad. I live in Dallas but I grew up in Minnesota. I am a Vikings season ticket holder and come home to Minnesota numerous times of the year. I see several Twins games a year at Target Field and watch most games on iPad. When I come to a game in Aug or Sept I would much rather watch Vargas or Rosario hit then some random veteran who might be slightly better at that moment. I don't care about spending or saving the Pohkads money. I just want to see the franchise moving forward. Sometimes moving forward means taking a few steps back. I use the T-Wolves as an example. A few years ago when Love was still here they went out and signed a couple of veterans like Kevin Martin and resigned Buddinger and Pekovic. I wasn't really excited by that team because to me it looked like a team that was going be a 6 seed at best. That means a solid winning team but defeats in the 1st round every year. That's not what I want. All of last year I was more excited by that Wolves team than any of the Love led versions even though they only won 16 games. We finally had a piece in Wiggins that could lead a team to a championship and by being really bad last year we got the #1 overall pick which turned out to be Towns. Now Towns looks like an absolute beast and we have 2 franchise cornerstones. I can absolutely see Towns and Wiggins leading the T-WOLVES to a championship. If we had used Buster's logic we would have signed a couple of veterans so that we could have won 29 games instead of 16. Still no where near the playoffs and we'd have Stanley Johnson instead of Towns. Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way but I want championships not playoff appearances. If that means my favorite teams need to be a little worse in down years so they can be a little better in up years, I'll take that every time.

There has been a lot of angst this offseason about the Twins not signing an experienced bullpen arm or two. I feel like January 2014 all over again. Everyone was saying we needed to sign some starting pitching. In back to back years we have signed Nolasco and Santana. If you go by salary our rotation would be Santana, Hughes, Nolasco, Milone and Gibson. If you went by actually trying to win you would probably go Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffy and Berrios. The 1st rotation would cost around 40 Million this year. The 2nd would cost less than 25 Million. Does anyone really want Nolasco and Milone in the rotation over Duffy and Berrios? Looking at 2017 would anyone want Nolasco, Milone and Santana over Duffy, Berrios and Stewart or Gonzalves? I feel like it is the same way with bullpen arms now this season. Have we learned nothing? Everyone is clamoring for us to hand out bloated contracts to the likes of Bastardo and O'Day. I don't care about saving or spending the Pohlads money. I want the Twins to have the best team on the field. Having a guy like Bastardo might have meant a slight improvement for the bullpen for April and May. But I don't want to have any of those guys holding spots and keeping young guys from coming up. There is so much bullpen talent that is very close to being ready. From the right side you have Tonkin, Presley, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Peterson and Paulson who have all pitched in AA already. From the left side you have Rogers, Darnel, Melotakis and Booser. Almost everyone of these guys hits 95 or higher on the gun. The 2 guys that don't are excellent against lefties. In April the bullpen I'd like to see is Perkins, May, Jepsen, Fien, Tonkin, Rogers and Nolasco. Come June 1st I would love for it to be Perkins, May, Jepsen, Burdi, Tonkin, Melotakis and Rogers. That is a young but extremely talented and hard throwing bullpen that can compete with Kansas City. Plus it would cost slightly more than Darren O'Day is making this season.

Mickey Hatcher

This has been a strange year for the Twins. I don't know if most realize it but take a couple of horrendous stretches out that amount to about 3 weeks of games and the Twins are 8 games over .500. The Twins had a 10 game losing streak and another where they lost 11 out of 12. So which team are they closer to be being? The one that was gawd-awful for 3 weeks or the one that has been pretty decent about 85% of the time? If a hitter was batting .290 for the season but that was done by batting .250 for 130 games and a ridiculous hot stretch of hitting .500 for a month I know how guys like Aaron Gleeman would classify him. That he is a .250 hitter that had a very lucky stretch. So doesn't the reverse work for the Twins? What do you put more faith in? 140 games of a season where the Twins play at or above .500 or a horrendous and unlucky 22 games? Now I will qualify this by saying that I am not even sure how the Twins have managed to post a winnung record for most of the games playes this year. Their starting pitching has been for the most part, abysmal. Even during this homer binge they hitting with RISP has been brutal, as it has been all season. The clutch hitting has been the most frustrating part of the team for me this year. I expected the starting staff to be mediocre at best so it isn't a surprise. I actually thought the lineup would be pretty decent. But I don't even want to know how many times we have starnded a runner at 3rd with less than 2 outs or had the first 2 hitters get on and then to now move as the next 3 go K, pop up, K. The 2 things they have been really good at is the bullpen has been outstanding and the up the middle defense. Dozier and Floriman are probably the best combo defensively in the majors, which is shocking to write and Hicks for all his struggles made a lot of amazing plays. So which version is closer to the truth?

I also doubt that an agent would allow a 12 year deal even if they were options.. That is wishful thinking on my part. I definitely think that Sano's camp would listen if the Twins approached them with this. It would be very tough to turn down 30-40 million guaranteed to try and max out your earnings. As for darin617, I am nit sure why you even come to this site or watch Twins games. You clearly dislike the entire franchise. Wouldn't it be easier for you to just cheer for the Yankees?

It's funny when I wrote this in June it was criticized by most for being way too soon. When I went back and looked at it my first thought was that the numbers are a little low. Amazing what 2 months can do to your perspective. I think this off season you at least start the conversation with the agent. There has to be a middle ground where Sano leave some money on the table for the security of a potential $40 mil deal. The Twins take some risk but have the chance for a Longoria or Span type team friendly deal. I would love for Sano to play for the Twins in Sept and joing Hick and Arcia on the opening day roster with Rosario and Buxton soon to follow.

I wrote this article in June right after Sano was promoted to AA. Even though I clearly state that this was a conversation for next March IF Sano did well in AA, it was still ridiculed by a few short sighters. I wanted to repost and see what everyone thinks now. "Now that Sano is in New Britain I thought we start speculating on how the Twins should handle him. I would love to see the Twins be proactive with him like the Rays were with Longoria. I think you go this agent next Spring and offer something like this. 8 years 40 Million 3 Million signing bonus up front Year 1 500K Year 2 500K Year 3 1 Mil Year 4 3 Mil Year 5 5 Mil Year 6 7 Mil Year 7 9 Mil Year 8 11 Mil 4 option s totaling 55 Mil, with the annual breakdown being 12, 13, 15 and 15 Mil. This works for both sides. The Twins get a very team friendly contract that keep Sano here for at least 8 years and buys out 2 FA seasons. Sano gets 3 mil up front and 40 mil guaranteed. This way Sano can start next season at 3rd and not wait until June. The option years might be tough for the agent to swallow but I would push for them. What does everyone think?"

Any update on any of these 3? I am starting to get worried about Bard especially. In over a year as a professional he has thrown 7 innings. I hope that Wimmers can follow the Gibson recovery plan and can get back on the mound for a hand full of starts this year and then go to the AZL.

Any update on any of these 3? I am starting to get worried about Bard especially. In over a year as a professional he has thrown 7 innings. I hope that Wimmers can follow the Gibson recovery plan and can get back on the mound for a hand full of starts this year and then go to the AZL.

Let me say something about Gibson so people don't think I just blindly think everyone should be promoted. I actually have no problem with Gibson not being promoted. In fact if he doesn't see Target Field this year I am fine. I have always struggeld with what to do with him this year. It blows using a year of control to get a limited amount of innings. We are at the point now that if you do send him up that's fine. He will still have 6 full years.

I wasn't upset last week when Buxton wasn't promoted because I thought it made sense. The Kernels hadn't clinched until the middle of the week and then when they did it was too late. Fort Myers was off all weekend for the Florida St All Star Game. Why would you promote somebody so they could sit around all weekend. Then when you had to wait till Monday you might as well as let him play in the all star game. I kept waiting all day yesterday to hear news about the promotion. Still waiting. There is no reason now for Buxton to still be in CR. He is leading or second in the Midwest in most offensive categories. I usually give Terry the benefit of the doubt and I try not to be a shrieking violet like too many on this website but I really think they are being too conservative here. Buxton, Hicks, Williams and Polanco all should be on their way to Fort Myers right now. The Kernels now have 4 outfielders for 3 spots in Walker, Williams, Buxton and Kepler. Well played Twins, well played.