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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. I can't see the Mets not retaining Edwin Diaz, but someone had a Twins roster which included signing him and that roster was still something like $6-$7 million under budget. If you had Diaz and Lopez at the back end of the bullpen THAT'S when you consider Duran for the rotation. A solid STARTER is always more valuable than a solid relief pitcher, even a closer. Duran had a remarkably healthy season as a relief pitcher, but he'd be WAAAY more valuable in the rotation for 150-175 innings. And Alcala is a wildcard who could fill a key spot in the bullpen as well. What would our rotation look like if we had Rodon at the top and Duran in there somewhere ? I'd be pretty intrigued with THAT.
  2. I agree with Rodon. But the Giants SPEND, so would they let him get away ? We need a starting catcher (Jeffers is a backup). I'm not as down on IKF as some. I'd be fine with him as a bridge to Lewis/Lee/Miller, but I'm not interested in Hicks at all. He's the Yankees problem...they can have him. The Montero investment is solid. A good non-Correa solution at SS could be Bogaerts. Certainly not the Glove (but adequate) but a better, more consistent bat than Correa and at a $175-$200 price ($100-$125 million or more LESS than Carlos). Good work on this whosafraid ! Keep them coming.
  3. It will help him some. It certainly can't hurt. Maybe a Kepler for Marquez trade with the Rockies Doc Gast ? Maybe expand the deal and get a RH hitting OF'er (Connor Joe?) back as well. With Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff and Larnach I just can't see all four staying. One or two could be moved. Colorado has had success with other former Twins (Morneau, Cuddy) so why not make a trade for Max.
  4. GREAT post Nash ! First, I just love listening to Pedro Martinez talk baseball ! What an honest assessment of his pitching career. As good as he was (and boy was he good) he's spot on in admitting he was always reluctant to let the bullpen come in to finish the game. If he'd have pitched to a 7-inning expectation (pacing himself for 7) how much better could he have been? It's in interesting thought. Correa's breakdown was great as well. I totally agree that Bogaerts would be a tremendous consolation prize. He's NOT a Gold Glove SS like Correa, but he's adequate. He's a better hitter though. More consistent, less prone to slumps. And he aligns with the Twins short and long term plans in that he can shift to another position as he ages while the Twins determine if Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee is the SS of the future. Of ALL the SS options the Twins could have "post Correa" I think Bogaerts is the best one to go after.
  5. I'm with Mike Link on this one. I know offensive stats have ALWAYS found their way into this calculus. How else can you explain Rafael Palmiero winning one when he was the Orioles primary DH years ago?? But the Arraez nomination just floors me. He's basically still learning position. Would anyone ever confuse Luis with Hrbek, Mattingly or Wes Parker ? Luis had a great year with the bat. An "O.K." year with the glove. Not bad, but not Gold Glove worthy. That's my assessment after watching 160 of the Twins 162 games this past season. Happy for Max. He deserves it. Correa is a premium glove at SS. He should be there because few are better throughout ALL of baseball. Watch Bogaerts win it. That would be laughable.
  6. REALLY nice job Riverbrian. I like the 2nd one better. Subtracting Hand and adding Drury has a much greater positive impact on the team/roster. I think Hand is unnecessary when you bring in Diaz and we already have Duran and Lopez. Add in Alcala and that is some SERIOUS firepower in a BP. Yes, we need a LH option other than Theilbar, but I'm fine with Moran. Drury adds a solid RH bat and a little positional flexibility. Hanniger is interesting but Drury could make him unnecessary as well but I love your creativity. Mateo is a good idea as well, but I'd rather trade for someone like Kiner-Falefa instead and just make IKF the starting SS. He's a solid bridge to Lewis and also offers multiple positional versatility. Seeing a plan like this gets me excited about next year (without Correa). YOU. ARE. HIRED !!!
  7. Thanks for listing a couple options Matt. I always appreciate when someone "does the work" to get the comments rolling in on TD. None of these guys do anything for me though. Well, Hoerner does, but if the Cubs signed one of the big name FA's they'd probably just move Nico to 2B or 3B. He's not going anywhere. Correa should be their primary option, but if he actually DOES get the huge payday, it probably won't be from us. I don't like 30-somethings SS's and if Rojas was an option as a bridge to Lewis or Lee I'd want him as a throw-in in a trade for Lopez. The Yankees will have both Cabrera and Peraza on their roster next season so Kiner-Falefa is the next best option to me. However, as I've mentioned before, I'd also check in with the Royals to see what it would take to acquire either Adelberto Mondesi or Nickey Lopez. Bobby Witt Jr is the SS in K.C. for the next 10 years. Either of those guys would be an interesting pickup.
  8. I'm with Cris E on this one. Toronto has THREE (3) !!! catchers and even with a DH can't possibly satisfy all of them in terms of AB's and playing time. Jeffers is nothing more than a career backup. We need to get on the phone and call the Blue Jays. Gabe Moreno is their prized prospect. That means he's not going anywhere. It comes down to Kirk or Jansen and either would be a massive upgrade behind the plate for the Twins. I mentioned in an different thread that with Austin Martin blistering the AFL could one of the options for him be a trade once his value ticks back up when the AFL concludes. Might the Blue Jays be interested in Martin in a deal for either Kirk or Jansen ?
  9. This is certainly GOOD news that his bat is coming around. I just don't see him as a SS with Lewis, Lee and Miller in the system. I see him as a LF'er who can handle CF when Buxton is hurt and a top of the order hitter (#1 or #2) who gets on base ahead of the meat of the order. One other thing to consider: Is this the time to include Martin in a trade once his stock climbs at the conclusion of the AFL?? He certainly could have a place on the big league roster, but he could also be used to bring in a more accomplished player in a trade package, be that a pitcher or a hitter.
  10. In the immediate future, Urshela could be counted on to play some SS until they could consider Lewis, but that's a good chuck of the season and too risky for me. I'd like to bring Correa back but feel as if that's our least probable outcome. There's just no way to know WHO would be interested in him at at HOW MUCH. The Twins will have to ride that tiger and see where it leads. I'm not interested in old, has-been SS's like Iglesias and Andrus. I'd rather approach the Royals about a trade for either Adelberto Mondesi or Nicky Lopez. Mondesi has great potential but is NEVER healthy. It's a Byron Buxton "Ground Hog Day." Still, if it wouldn't be too costly, I'd risk it and count on our crack training staff to get 150 games out of Mondesi (insert laugh track here). Lopez is a pretty solid glove man at either SS or 2B. Neither he or Mondesi have any future at SS with Bobby Witt Jr now in the majors. The Royals could play Lopez at 2B or look for more offensive firepower than Lopez can provide. I like the idea of checking in with the Yankees for Kiner-Falefa. I believe BOTH Cabrera and Peraza will be on the Yanks major league roster next year and Kiner-Falefa could be acquired. What would the Yankees want ? Let's find out.
  11. Mondesi can't stay healthy (hello Mr. Buxton) but if I could sign him for $6 million I would in a heartbeat. I just LOVE his talent and potential. I'd rather gamble on youth and potential than throw money at old has-beens like Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias. The Twins could sign a non-tendered Mondesi and STILL see Royce Lewis get healthy and become the SS of the future. Having game breaking speed like Buxton, Lewis and Mondesi on our team could prove very interesting. We'd need a new manager though. Rocco consistently attempts fewer SB's than any team in the league. His initial year, record setting HR team broke him. He has no desire or ability to "create" runs. Nicky Lopez would require a trade, but that kid can pick it. As long as the Royals have Bobby Witt Jr. there's not much need for Mondesi and Lopez unless K.C. plays Lopez at 2B. My "preference" would be to resign Correa. But if cost is "prohibitive" I wouldn't mind looking at Mondesi or Lopez. I'd still like to have serious discussions with Miami for young SP'ing by dangling Larnach or Wallner or even Kirilloff or Kepler. We have FOUR (4) !! LH hitting OF'ers and at most can play 1 or two at a time. I'd like to follow the Cleveland model and stockpile power arms. I Rec'd a LOT of comments from a lot of different viewpoints because I believe there is not a simple answer, nor an unquestioned "correct" answer to this question. We have Lewis and Brooks Lee who could very well be major league SS material. We also have Miller who may be as well. None of them can give the Twins an entire season at SS NEXT YEAR. Something needs to give.
  12. I think the Twins have plenty of young, talented pitchers to fill out the roster to start the season. I would add one more veteran arm like Rosenthal (big potential, health is a risk) to give the back end a little more flexibility. Omar is a fine option for backup catcher. He's got a solid bat and glove but we're still allowing Jeffers to be that "catcher of the future" we all think/hope he can be. I'd still like to consider a trade of some sorts along the line of Larnach or Kepler and some other pieces for Pablo Lopez. That would remove the need for Rosenthal and push everyone down a peg putting Ober or Maeda in the BP to start the season. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Carlos Correa ($37.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($2.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Winder ($0.7M) RP: Varland ($0.70M) RP: Trevor Rosenthal ($2.50M) Payroll is 7.57% under budget
  13. Catcher and SS are the two biggest holes and you addressed them. I'd LOVE to have Correa back and whether it's Contreras (better bat) or Narvaez (better glove) would be good options. I'd like to go after Pablo Lopez but I think one of Kirilloff, Larnach, Kepler or Wallner would have to be included. I could see Miami asking for Miranda and that would be a tough call. Keeping Urshela is wise.
  14. This is why I come to TD. An interesting and controversial topic with many interesting takes. For me, this kind of comes down on how healthy our young pitching pipeline is. And for the last couple years it hasn't been. If we have widespread injury problems with pitchers again, Pagan is at least durable. The new pitch is nice. it's ALWAYS nice when a pitcher can toy with a "new pitch." But like someone else pointed out, if you can throw 100 mph like Megill but don't have any consistent command, what good is that? If the young pitching pipeline has a spring/summer/fall of health, some of them will certainly be a better option than Pagan. If arbitration WORKED, Pagan would be getting a pay cut. He was epically BAD. To me, as a sales manager, that doesn't warrant a RAISE. But I know attaching real world common sense to "sports world" salaries is childish, so I won't go there (even though I just did).
  15. Sadly, this is what baseball is becoming. The "game" will always thrill. Great players making great plays will always be a given. But baseball guys like Madden or Paul Molitor are being fazed out. It is inevitable that we will see "computer controlled home plate/strike zone umps." Sometimes the call of a strike, or lack of one is maddening, but that's always been a part of baseball. This antiseptic approach to the game has always had me just a bit "uneasy." How would today's analytics treat a relief pitcher like Mike Marshall, Goose Gossage or Hoyt Whilhelm ???
  16. I can't see him going to the Dodgers (they will re-sign Trea Turner) or the Yankees (they've got TWO young SS's that they LOVE. Kiner-Falefa is around as insurance until one of them, probably Peraza starts). Boston would be better off bringing Bogaerts back or shifting Story over. Really, there aren't a LOT of teams that would be desperate. Seattle could look to make a bid and move Crawford to 2B. I just can't see the Cubs going after him and the White Sox have Tim Anderson. Would they really shift Anderson to the outfield ? I doubt it. I agree that Correa is a leader and we are a better team WITH him. We really can't count on Lewis being ready or Brooks Lee who I think will be a fast mover through the system. The Twins are in position to keep him. I think it should be the FO's top task this off-season. I don't think much will happen this off-season until the Yankees re-sign Judge.
  17. I predicted 2nd place (behind the White Sox). Cleveland pitching won them the division. There was no way I would have predicted a sub-.500 won-lost record.
  18. I keep Fulmer and J. Lopez to fortify my BP with a couple vets who have upside (Jorge Lopez isn't going anywhere). I certainly protect Canterino. He's got tremendous upside and after all they've been through with him just protect him and let him rehab and hopefully see what you have with him eventually. Keep Urshela for Pete's Sake. He's been solid all year. We need a SS if Correa isn't back. We need catchers. We need a RH hitting OF'er. And we have Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Kepler. We don't need FOUR LH hitting OF'ers. One needs to be packaged in a trade, hopefully for pitching and/or a catcher. There is a TON of dead weight just waiting to be cut loose. Wipe the board clean and start over.
  19. Great topic S.B. and one I consider the "opening salvo" of how the Twins can look to improve in 2023. INJURIES. That more than anything else killed the Twins in 2022. We were basically a AAA team from August 1st. Goodness, an outfield of Cave, Contreras and whoever can't win you anything in the major leagues. More than anything else, the Twins need health in 2023. The problem is, we've been saying that for several years now. Something has to change in their off-season training/preparation and in season as well. I'm looking forward to our many discussions of the 40-man roster and how the brain trust should manage it. We still have areas of strength (talented LH hitting OF'ers, 2B) and gaping holes (SS ?? Certainly Catcher, SP's that can go 6+). One of the first things I'd do is get on the phone to Toronto. They've got THREE good catchers. Top prospect Moreno, Kirk and Jansen. What would it take to pry one of them away ? With a projected starting rotation of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda and Ober, and with Winder, SWR and Varland waiting in the wings there is depth in the rotation, but what if another quality SP like Pablo Lopez was acquired ? Everyone drops a peg and you've got a 6-7 inning pitcher leading your staff. Winder, Ober and others are the 2+ inning BP options. Duran and Lopez make a fine back end. Theilbar and Jax will be back. It has the makings of a solid pitching staff. Which leaves us with SS. I've been the guy holding out hope for Correa. I still don't want to give up on that. A Gold Glove SS with 20-25 HR power and a .280-.300 batting average is pretty hard to come by. I'd give him 4-years $160 million. I'd still have Lewis and Brooks Lee waiting in the wings, but the Twins are just so much better with Correa on the team. I like what I saw from Wallner. I'm sure other teams noted him as well. With Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Kepler somebody needs to be traded. I'd move one of them in a package for a Pablo Lopez type or a Toronto catcher. I'd also look at moving Polanco to solidify catcher and a #1 SP. Arraez and Gordon, maybe Lewis as well can cover 2B. I play Kirilloff and Miranda at 1B. I retain Urshela. The Twins have assets other teams would be interested in. It shouldn't be as hard as we've made it to find a solid RH hitting 4th OF'er. Finally, if Correa isn't back a Jose Iglesias type is still needed to bridge the gap from Lewis being READY to step in full time. That's my plan (kind of) and I'm sticking to it. (until a better idea comes along).
  20. I have been consistent with my satisfaction that we signed Carlos to the contract we did and in maintaining my hope we could work something out to have him stay here. I've got no problem with his response to the question. He was honest and straightforward. Honesty is always the best policy. We have Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee on the way and another young SS (Miller?) moving up the ladder. Alas, Palacios and Wander Javier are never gonna make it. It will NOT take Brooks Lee 5 years to get to the big club. I give it 3 years. Lewis may or may not be ready next year, but as a fan, I'd just like to see him have ONE healthy season. I wouldn't be opposed to a 5-year $200 million dollar contract. It allows for Lewis and Lee to grow and at any time during the contract Carlos could be traded and one of Lewis or Lee becomes the regular SS. I think it's a slam dunk, no doubter that Correa is the best player on the current Twins team. In fact, it's not even close. Teams seldom get better when they don't retain their best player, but I'd be remiss if I didn't point out the Mariners winning 115 games after saying goodbye to Griffey, Randy Johnson and A-Rod in the span of a couple years. But I certainly feel the Mariners were the exception. Unless you're looking at a one-year Jose Iglesias type of bridge at SS there really aren't many better options than paying Correa. We're not going to out-bid the Braves for Swanson. We're not signing Bogaerts. Turner is staying with the Dodgers (he's not going anywhere). I think the best course of action is to retain Correa and FINALLY get something sustained and significant from our pitching pool of young flame throwers. Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Winder, is a decent starting point for a rotation next year. Rather than throwing big money at a SP I'd rather retain that Gold Glove winning, clutch bat swinging SS for another 3-4 years.
  21. For my money, the BEST uniforms the Twins have ever had are their original 1961-1971 pinstripe home and cream road. Maybe it was growing up back then with Killebrew, Oliva, Carew and Tovar, but those uniforms are far and away the best. The blue Twins script and the blue numbers on the back. I understand the desire to "modernize" and to switch things up to sell more merchandise, but the Dodgers and Yankees don't do it, so why should we. At a minimum, just for my satisfaction, they should wear those original jerseys every weekend or every Friday-Saturday-Sunday.
  22. Amen Brother "LastOnePicked" ! Amen !!
  23. I'm not in the camp that it's a fait accompli that Correa doesn't come back. But Lewis is a guy every one of us is rooting for and I don't think he'll let us down. Remember, Paul Molitor had all sorts of injury woes early in his career and became a Hall of famer and World Series MVP. Maybe the same fate awaits Royce Lewis. Even if Correa comes back, there is certainly a role for Lewis to have significant playing time in 2023.
  24. He's one of my favorite Twins players on this team, but his offensive slid is just so frustrating to watch. It's true, we've had SO many injuries and with Buxton always a question mark day to day our outfield has been a mess all season. Heck, we've been starting Cave, Wallner and Contreras with a healthy dose of Gordon. Because of that, and the fact that despite his anemic offense Max is a net positive player it would be surprising to see him dealt, but if he was part of a package to bring a Pablo Lopez type of SP to the club I'd be in favor. I would still want to see him do well with a new club.
  25. I wanted Montas. I campaigned all winter and throughout the season for him. And he's been a 2nd half disaster. So I have egg on my face over that. I can't be too critical of this front office for the moves they made. They should have traded Berrios and were wise to prioritize Buxton over him. Gray and Mahle will be valuable members of the rotation next season and we must wait and see on Paddock. Maeda will be back. And then you have young guns like Ryan, Winder and Ober. I'm beating a dead horse here, but HEALTH has been something in short supply for the Twins and throughout the minor league teams in the last couple years. They need to stay healthy. I hope the front office stays aggressive this off-season. They need to settle the Correa situation and then move quickly once it's decided.
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