Oxtung

are you implying they should have kept their big names and still been a sub .500 team for the fifth straight season? Seems like their GM is making some great decisions to me. I wish the Twins would have had these trade chits in 2012. We'd be better off today.

I'm not sure why the conversation revolves around either FA or trade. IMO both should be seriously contemplated. A rotation next year of: Quintana Lance Lynn Berrios Santana Mejia With Jorge, Romero/Gonsalves (whoever you don't trade) at AAA and the Thorpedo at AA. Combine that with our current lineup and the team is a legit playoff contender. That is a rotation that will be around for several years as well. If you don't like Lynn or Quintana there are other similar options available instead. The point is we could actually have an above average rotation next year without sacrificing any current major league asset. Put together with a hopefully above average hitters and suddenly this team is expected to be a playoff contender.

Absolutely Sano, Buxton, etc are still young and that is contributing to the void. That said there are some fairly significant question marks amongst that group. There is a real chance they never pan out as more than average over the next couple of years. That might not be a 50/50 chance but it certainly isn't zero either. My point is there isn't much in the pipeline that projects to be an above average player over the next couple of years until you dip down into rookie ball. I don't think we should be excluding hitters from our trade returns because IMO there is a pretty decent chance not all of our young guys improve and we need some reinforcements.

I get why everybody is looking to get pitching back but I think the organization is going to have a real dearth of position players over the next several years too. Perhaps it's even worse than the pitching at this point in the minors for the next several seasons. First and foremost there is Gordon which I think everyone is pretty happy about, though I have some concerns about what his numbers look like when his .400 BABIP normalizes a bit, but he is still a potential average to above average player. After that though nobody above low A projects to be an everyday player. Granite, wade, Garver, Vielma might be a nice reserve but they aren't going to be an impact player. Even at low A you have to really squint to see Blankenhorn or Diaz as anything more than average player at their likely positions. It's not until you get down to Rookie ball before you get to the next set of players whom you could say have a real shot at being an above average player. But they have a good 4ish years to go before they are impacting the Twins. I intentionally left Rooker off the list because we know very little about his future at this point. There is certainly potential there but he could just as easily wind up Palka or ABW3. Right now the Twins offense is average and we hope Buxton turns it around and Polanco figures somethings out. On the other hand though Mauer will be leaving, and as much as people like to rip him he is basically a league average bat. Many of you want to trade Dozier, another average bat. Also many are advocating trading one of Buxton/Rosario/Kepler. I just don't see the bats to replace these guys let alone provide reinforcements in future years or provide a jolt to the lineup with a mid season call up in the coming years. I look at the minors and see Romero, Gonsalves and Thorpe(any word on his velocity since his return?) as potential average to above average pitchers with a bunch of bullpen arms too but the only hitting reinforcement appears to be Gordon. That worries me. I wouldn't narrow my returns to just pitchers. We need both IMO.

So Your point is Buxton hitting the ball softer actually increases his BA? That seems an odd stance to take. The amount of hits added due to lower exit velocities on the ground would be more than cancelled by the reduction in hits to the gaps/outfield. Not to mention the corresponding drop in ISO. I've been searching for a correlation between speed and BABIP and while there is a general sentiment that speed positively increases BABIP the only study I could find showed a very low correlation (r^2=.08) between Bill James "speed score" and BABIP. If you find anything different I'd love to read it. Until then I'll remain skeptical that Buxton can maintain a .350 BABIP given his current exit velocities. Just to add some context to this, only 13 players in baseball had a BABIP >.350 in baseball last season. That doesn't include Billy Hamilton btw who has a .302 career BABIP in ~500 games.

Do you have anything to support that claim? He doesn't hit the ball hard so that will negatively impact his BABIP.

Yeesh. Has it only been a week since this was written. Seems like his non-leg-kick has been around so much longer. Since that is the case we really don't have any data to make a judgement one way or the other. It's just too SSS. Case in point his BABIP is .381 over that same span. When that normalizes his BA will drop, though perhaps not to his previous Mendozian levels.

what does this even mean? He has an OPS of .568 over the last 2 weeks.......

Pitchers don't skip AAA even outside the Twins organization. One or two might head to AAA then get a cup of coffee late this season but only if the Twins remain in contention. Expect to see all 3 begin at AAA next season as well. I did some reasearch on this and was going to type something up but haven't had the time and don't expect to soon. Of the 30 recent (last 5 seasons or so) starting pitchers I looked into only 2 skipped AAA. One of which was Dylan Bundy, which seems due mostly to his signing a MLB contract and his unbelievable potential, which I think we can all agree the Twins pitchers don't fall into either category.

You beat me to it markos. His stats right now are much higher than they will be in MLB as you stated because of his BABIP and k-rate but also his slugging is somewhat inflated by his 6 triples. As a 50 runner he won't be legging out many triples due to his speed and the fielding is good enough that he won't be gifted many due to the defense either. I'd have to do the math but I'd be surprised if he was a >.800 OPS player once his BABIP and triples normalize. That is still a good player but I just want our expectations to be reasonable.

In addition the Twins place atop the central stems more from the other teams weakness rather than from the Twins strengths. If you swap the Twins to any non-central division they are probably a sub-.500 team.

Average exit velocity is an emotionally exciting stat but the data so far have shown that what really matters is how many balls are hit >95 mph. Balls exiting at 80 mph go for hits at the same rates as those at 90 mph. It isn't until 95 mph that there is a change in batting average and slugging.

I would argue the solution to that problem is a better 4th OF. Then you can keep Grossman's .800 OPS bat in the lineup and not have a large drop in the OF defense. Given the Twins flyball prone pitching this seems preferable to me.

That was my point Mike. He has negative value in the field, whether that is as much as last season or not he is a poor fielder. I am actually liking him at the DH position. Keep the bat in the lineup and the glove off the field. Of course that raises issues about who the 4th OF would be but that is a different conversation.

Until he actually plays in the OF, then his defensive shortcomings make him a liability.

With Berrios and Mejia to start the season and hopefully Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, etc... at some point I think AAA is where "Veteran Leadership" is truly needed. Gimenez to AAA to help our young pitchers and mentor Garver while JRM gets one more shot to show he has what it takes in the majors. I'd be surprised if Gimenez makes the MLB opening day roster unless JRM looks absolutely lost.

So how do you feel about extensions right now for Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc....? Assuming they would be amenable, of course. Yeah there is quite a bit of risk there it would extend the window of competitiveness while we wait for the young pitchers to develop. Another bonus here is they might be able to front load some of those extensions since the Twins aren't using all their current payroll and then 4-5 years from now the Twins would have extra cash on hand to sign a big FA.

Mike I'm not sure what you are arguing here. My IRA is an asset too, I sure as hell hope it continues to grow though.

So if we hope that Dozier goes on a hot streak and maintains value then it is "certain doom". However, if we hope that a prospect haul to pan out that's ok. Seems like a double standard to me...

Many people would argue that is exactly what trading Dozier for prospects is.....

One of the writers from a dodger site (dodgerblue perhaps?) overlayed his 2016 HRs onto Dodger stadium and found that Dozier would only have lost a few. Essentially LF is slightly farther but CF is closer and the net result was like 3-5 HRs less. In other words it shouldn't be enough to matter.

So you don't know but it's a near certainty? I don't see how both of those could be true. Either way I don't agree with your assessment for two reasons. First, I think it is just as likely he goes on a hot streak to start the season and has a .900 OPS in July. Second, the premise that he is at "peak value" is predicated on the idea that his HR binge has somehow changed GM's perceptions of Dozier. I think the discussions here, the reported offer and common sense suggest that is false. Dozier is viewed as he always has been; a player that will likely give you 3-5 WAR each year for the next two seasons.

The Dodgers need to offer a package the Twins will accept. It does no good for them to offer the most only to still lose out on Dozier because the Twins didn't like the return.

Or you the Twins could take the middle option and reassess the trade market this July and again in December and if need be the following July again. Last July he might very well have been a toxic asset; now here we are six months later talking about a top of the line pitching prospect as a return. We have no idea what his worth will be six months from now let alone 18.

So is Mike Trout but not even he can carry a team to the playoffs. An Ace might bring 3 extra wins a year more than a back of the rotation pitcher. The Twins need 30. While an Ace would be great and everyone wants one the Twins future hinges on the young pitchers and hitters already in the organization. Hyping the Dozier trade up by saying the Twins future depends on it forces a scenario where they are desperate, unable to walk away and as a result accept a lesser return because they absolutely must trade him. To be clear I think they should trade him but if the return isn't adequate then keep him and live to play another day. That is not failure.