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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Do you really think that this $2.5 million (which isn't even guaranteed) is going to stop the Twins from signing a $60 million contract?
  2. Oxtung
    I agree. He's already 27; if the Twins believe he isn't ready to be a backup catcher when he's entering his prime then see what you can get for him on the trade market. We've gotten surprisingly good returns on backup catchers.
  3. Oxtung
    In general I think making roster decisions based off a few weeks of spring training results is a terrible idea. However, in the case of a player returning from injury, and especially a multi year injury, it makes sense to use this time to discern his health. I don't even care about his stats; what is his velocity, how about his arm slot/angle, how much break are his balls getting? To me that is what Spring Training can actually tell us. All of that is to say we know roughly what we should get from Slegers/Jorge and it's a 4.5-5 ERA. If Hughes can recover he should be better than that. Let's wait and see before we close the door on him yet.
  4. Oxtung
    Kershaw would cost considerably more. This is the piece that people seem to forget. If you only are willing to trade for (or sign) one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball their price is going to be considerably higher! A trade package for Kershaw starts with Buxton and includes several other high end pieces.
  5. Oxtung
    I agree that he struggled late last year probably due to running out of gas. However, the days of 200IP being a benchmark are gone. Only 15 pitchers last year threw >200IP. Hell, only 60 pitchers threw >160IP. Romero might struggle late in the season but if he can get to 150IP that is the same as most pitchers in baseball these days.
  6. Oxtung
    Why not just sign Cobb or Lynn and keep the prospects?
  7. Oxtung
    After looking at Greinke's remaining contract I am even more disappointed that the Twins didn't get Darvish. While Greinke is a better pitcher he's not $10M more per year better and we also miss the early years with the highest probability of great seasons. Oh yeah, we also have to give up prospects. Remind me how this is better than just signing Darvish? I guess at this point I'd like the Twins to .... I don't even know. None of the options are appealing at this point.
  8. Oxtung
    Thanks for the replies guys. Interesting stuff!
  9. Oxtung
    I can accept that. I was just pointing out that the jump was not as large as you implied. Your original suggestion, carried through to it's conclusion, is that in 2019 he'll be ready for a full 170ish innings you get in full season ball which I think is unlikely. Out of curiosity, do you know roughly how many innings a player throws in EST? Clearly it varies per player's readiness but a rough estimate?
  10. Oxtung
    Jose Berrios was drafted in 2012, the year he “threw 30 innings”. Presumably, he threw much more than that during his senior year of high school making the jump in IP much less than 30 - 100 like you suggest.
  11. Oxtung
    Here is a link to Fangraphs' pitching glossary page. You should be able to find most of them there including links for more indepth explanations if needed.
  12. Oxtung
    There have been many year to year correlation studies done. Let me be upfront, none of our current analytics do a very good job of predicting future performance. That said they are still the best we currently have. Here is a matrix showing correlations from a few years ago. The best predictors of future ERA are FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA. They are more accurate predictors of 2018 ERA's than a players 2017 ERA. On a related note, has anyone seen the Steamer/ZIP correlation numbers?
  13. Oxtung
    I didn't look closely enough at his methodology and that was more complex than the one I was looking for, sorry! Disregard my previous mathematical analysis. Though I still think you're overvaluing SB's and WP's. I'll look more closely and repost.
  14. Oxtung
    Thanks for clarifying. It seems you're a bit confused by some of these analytics. I will try and simplify the last 15 years of SABR thought into a few sentences. If you already know this I apologize and you can ignore me. As you said FIP only uses a few variables; K's, BB's and HR's primarily, which makes it an easy analytic to use. As such it can be used to estimate how a pitcher performed without taking into account things like the defense behind him, the ballpark he plays in, etc.. that the pitcher has no control over. So for 2017 Darvish struckout 209 batters and walked 58 (which FIP LOVES) but also gave up 27 HR's (Which FIP hates). That makes for an above average FIP and this is how it was originally meant to be used. However, FIP can also be used as a projection system in two separate ways. First, the 2016 FIP correlates more highly to a players 2017 ERA than a players 2016 ERA to their 2017 ERA. So often a players 2017 FIP is used as a short hand for how a pitcher's ERA might perform the next season. Second, given a projected number of K's, BB's and HR's it can predict a 2018 FIP for players. This is where Steamer comes in. Steamer (and others like ZIPS) uses past trends in year to year fluctuations in a stat, say strikeouts, to predict what a players future number of strikeouts will be.
  15. Oxtung
    These would seem to be mutually exclusive statements. You can't claim to not know the math behind Steamer and simultaneously claim it doesn't take into account SB's and WP's. According to Tom Tango's run expectancy charts Darvish's SB - CS added ~3 runs to his season total last year. Finishing the math that means if Darvish didn't allow any SB's last season (nor any CS) he would have had an ERA of 3.71. When you do the math on WP's (which was ~3 runs as well) it works out to an ERA of 3.69. Combined they lower his ERA to 3.55. Or a difference of 8%. I'm not sure what this has to do with the larger point though. Darvish > Lynn. Edit: I hate not being able to put in 2 spaces after periods.
  16. Oxtung
    If you're looking for a better analytic than FIP look at SIERA. It takes batted ball profiles into account (i.e. BABIP). It is an ERA emulator but it functions as an ERA predictor even better than FIP does. It too thinks Darvish is a significantly better pitcher than Lynn. As for wild pitches, Darvish had 12 last season out of a total of 3054 pitches. Another way to state that once every 3 games he has a wild pitch. Seems likely that has a statistically insignificant impact on his performance. On an unrelated note I'm excited for the new statcast data to be incorporated into the analytics. I would think knowing average exit velocities and launch angles could greatly enhance an ERA estimator/emulator.
  17. Oxtung
    Why? The Astros, Dodgers, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees all had 8-10 players throw >20 IP in relief with another 3-7 with >10IP. There is considerable churn in todays bullpens, whether by injury or design. Last season he Twins had 10 players with >20IP in relief with another 14 making an appearance. All the players listed above will get a shot and be needed at some point in the season. In addition Duke and most likely Rodney will be gone next year and need replacing. By trading players this year you weaken next years possibilities too.
  18. Oxtung
    Sounds like we have similar thoughts then. I just don't think the AA guys are going to start in the rotation in 2018 so I think they need to acquire another good starter. Earlier this season I looked at 50 starting pitchers who premiered in the last 5ish years across MLB and only 2 began the year in the rotation. Some even had been called up the previous year for up to 10 starts but they all went back to start the next season at AAA. The only exceptions were Dylan Bundy, I think we can all agree we don't have anyone with his talent or contract situation pushing for a spot, and a guy from the Rangers who was a pretty poor prospect and has never turned into more than a back of the rotation starter. None of the other 48 starters were called up until at least 10 starts into the season. Given all of that I think we need 2 significant starters.
  19. Oxtung
    Mike this not aimed entirely at you because many people have typed it on this forum, but you seem to also be implying that it is absurd to go get someone like Grey given their peripheral numbers. I think in order to compete in 2018 the Twins need to acquire 2 above average pitchers before next season and the better they are the better the Twins chances of competeing. I think acquiring 2 good pitchers is a tall task for one offseason and see acquiring a pitcher like Grey as getting a jump on staffing for 2018 with the added benefit that we also get a significant upgrade for 2017 as well.
  20. Oxtung
    The Twins aren't going to sell off assets just days after acquiring a pitcher. That move guaranteed no selling this season. Have to wait for the offseason now.
  21. Oxtung
    So was I. There is no reason to sign a below average player to an extension unless the Twins are getting a deal. Those kinds of guys are available every year during the offseason when you can shop around and get the best offer. In addition I sure hope the Twins are setting their sights higher this offseason. This rotation needs an above average pitcher (I'd argue they need 2 even) if the Twins are to be considered legitimate contenders next season.
  22. Oxtung
    I don't think that is the case here. Back of the rotation starters are available cheap every off season. Sign and trades only make sense for above average players.
  23. Oxtung
    I just don't get this move. To me this is the FO telling the team "we don't believe in you". If you truly think they are contenders this season then you think they will be next season as well since virtually nobody is leaving this winter. In that case go get a pitcher that will help this year and next. If you don't think they are legitimate contenders then sell, sell, sell. Bring in new talent so 2019 is a realistic target. Either way a poor rental pitcher doesn't make sense. Personally I think we just lost talent in this trade and that is always a bad thing.
  24. Oxtung
    Ugh... I feel like I'm going to be pretty disappointed with this move. I don't get signing a rental player. The difference he will make over 10 starts is minimal (and I don't think the Twins stay in it until the end either way). I'd have been ok with giving up quite a bit for a controlled starter like Grey, including Gordon and Gonsalves plus, but to me this is just wasting a limited resource.
  25. Oxtung
    but they might. What we do know is that Quintana, Sale, Frazier, etc... were not going to get it done and there is 5 years of proof.
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