Oxtung

There is no more august revocable waiver wire trade period anymore if that is what you’re referring to. Pineda will be with the Twins for the rest off the year.

It's always interesting to see another perspective on the home town team so thanks for posting that, however, if you read the comments they are .... not enthusiastic .... about the Yanks trading for any of the Twins players. Obviously fans opinions have nothing to do with what discussions or actions the FO takes but it is interesting to see that Yankees fans are perhaps even more down on their team than Twins fans are.

Personally I think you're undervaluing Donaldson based on your criteria laid out in the preview article. If your overall goal is to is to answer the question, I'm not sure how that happens without JD being a powerhouse at the plate and in the field. On the other hand if your trying to answer who has the most trade value, then clearly Donaldson has no value due to the definition of "highest bidder."

Mid rotation starters are not “win now” moves, no matter how you try to spin it. If that’s what you wanted the Twins needed to dangle more than an apparently injured Graterol. True win now moves bring back premium, season changing talent. See Dodgers, Betts if you’re curious. No, this trade is simply the Twins saying they prefer Maeda to Graterol. I think that is short sighted and not likely to end well.

I think in 2020 Maeda is the better player. 2021 I think Graterol and Maeda are likely to be similar in value and after that I think Graterol will be the better player. I don’t understand people’s optimism in a mediocre pitcher whose workload will need to increase and will be turning 35 before the contract is up. I get his contract has value but you know what has more value? Producing positive WAR in years 3-6 of Graterol contract. Additionally another extension is off the table unless someone is interested in locking up Maeda into his late 30s. Personally, unless Graterol medical are so poor that he is unlikely to hold up as even a reliever, I think the Twins made a poor decision today. Ultimately this is a consequence of not signing a top of the rotation starter this offseason.

You seem to be saying that filling 4/5 spots in a rotation is hard and we don't want to hand the young guys the spots because then we'd have no depth, which I agree with. However, this is Falvey/Levine's fourth offseason with the Twins so isn't this their doing? They chose not to acquire pitchers previously when there were opportunities and that has directly led to the dilemma they found themselves in this offseason. Personally, I don't think they deserve credit for "setting a floor" when they could have done this in previous years letting them shoot for the ceiling this offseason. Also, there was enough payroll space to sign Cole, Odorizzi, Pineda, Hill and Romo. If they chose to go with Cole, Berrios and young guys, that would have been on them.

Appreciate the response. If the Twins sign Donaldson their payroll would be ~$140MM this year, which they seem willing to take on. If the Twins signed, Cole, Odorizzi, Pineda, Hill and Romo it would be ~$140MM too. I don't want to restart the "They should have signed one of the top 5 pitchers" argument again, rather my point is if the Twins wanted to they had the money to sign anybody this offseason and still fill out the rotation to add the absolutely necessary depth you point out. I think my problem with your definition is two-fold. First, I am not as optimistic as you that Odorizzi, Pineda and Bailey will be above average pitchers. I would guess one will be above average, one will be averageish and one will be below average. Second, given the state of the rest of the Twins, impact pitching to me means "matches up well against other starting pitchers in game 1 of a playoff series" which none of these signings do, IMO. Playoff teams best starting pitchers in 2019: Strasburg/Scherzer Cole/Verlander Buehler/Kershaw/Ryu Flaherty Severino Woodruff Morton/Glasnow Kuechel Manaea I look at that list and to me Berrios and/or Odorrizzi match up with Kuechel and Manaea. Everyone else is at least 1 step better. Some are 2 complete steps better. That's why I viewed "Impact Pitching" as one of those top guys.

While there isn't enough money involved to be a problem, I am not a fan of this extension. They already had him under control for 2 more seasons at a discounted and non-guaranteed rate. Did we really need 30 year old DH Sano? Sano is essentially a 2-3 WAR player moving forward (assuming they move him to 1B or DH and/or his defense doesn't improve at 3B). Those players are available every off season for cheap like Thames who signed for 2 years $6 million and can provide similar production. This contract certainly isn't terrible and is by no means crippling, but I don't really see the advantage of it either. Unless Sano considerably improves some part of his game 3 years and $30MM isn't really a bargain, so why lock yourself in?

You’re right, I (and I’d guess many others) disagree with you but in the interest of understanding your point of view better how do you define “impact pitching”? Is it a single one of those pitchers? Is it the cumulative effect of the 4 starters? Is there an ERA they must be better than? Help those of us who don’t agree understand your point of view better. FYI, this isn’t just to tarheeltwinsfan, if you consider the Twins to have signed impact pitching please explain how you define it and how the Twins met that bar.

I’ve never understood people who think insulting others is the same as winning arguments.

I fundamentally disagree with the premise of this article. If I buy a new car and 2 years down the road a hailstorm totals it, does that mean my decision to buy the car was a bad one? If I get undergo chemo and the following year die of a heart attack, does that mean I shouldn't have gotten chemo? If I buy an apple at the grocery store and my neighbor comes over later to give me an apple from the tree in their back yard does that mean I shouldn't have bought the one at the store? The answer to all these, and the premise of your article, is no. You judge decisions based on the evidence that is at hand when the decision was made. Sometimes bad things happen but that doesn't mean it was a bad decision. Until we can predict the future, judging decisions on hindsight is not logical.

No it's not, but I did miss where Musk21 said it in an earlier comment. Edit: Fixed Musk21's name.

Twins and Duffey agreed at 1.2MM

Great response. I hadn't realized how good the league was hitting the last few years. If Rosario has a similar year in 2020 and one of Cave, Wade, Larnach or Kirilloff have a big year I wouldn't be surprised if Rosario is non-tendered. Why pay ~$15M when you can get very similar production for $0.5?

I think you guys are both missing Polanco and Kepler which are now guaranteed contracts, I believe. That puts you closer to $80M for 2020 and $21M for 2021 in guaranteed money. Also, for the second time, that wasn't my position. Please stop implying this.

I also don't think Gray and Ray are particularly available right now for your stated reasoning.

Please go back and re-read what I wrote read. The very next sentence which you opted not to quote was: EDIT: replaced "read" with "wrote"

I think it'd be pretty close and I think it would really depend on the team inquiring. A team that is cash strapped, like the Rays or A's, might very well prefer the controlability of Cave or Wade. Rosario was the worst defensive outfielder in baseball last year according to statcast and he's not much better by other metrics. That significantly erodes his offensive value. On top of that he is no longer cheap and all of a sudden he doesn't have much trade value.

What "peripherals" are you looking at that makes Alcantara the "only" option compared to Gray and Ray?

By the time Graterol, Balazovic and/or Duran are dominant enough (assuming they ever reach that level of pitching) to lead us forward in the playoffs, Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Odorizzi will be gone. It's entirely plausible that Buxton, Berrios and Rogers are gone too. There in lies the struggle with building a team without FA or Trades. Everything must hit all at once. Given the self imposed constraints of not trading or signing top tier talent the Twins need to be phenomenal at drafting and developing talent. Not good. Not Great. Phenomenal. Currently the farm system is in the 7-12 range and that isn't going to cut it. So my plan for moving forward is to trade Sano and Rosario for prospects, eating as much salary as I can to get back the best returns I can. I would try to sign Berrios to an extension, even if that isn't as team friendly as they would like. If that fails, I would look to trade him next offseason. Perhaps most importantly, I would take that $20M we don't spend annually, and put it back into identifying and improving prospects. I would put money into creating databases with current data streams like Statcast and I would have an analytics department that is larger than the next 2 combined. Additionally, I would be putting money into developing the next technology that can create a new data stream that would be proprietary to the Twins. Once that technology is ready I would pay colleges to install it in their stadiums as well as at the major amateur showcases. Finally, if I thought there was a minor league coach that I thought was the best at what they do, I would go get that person even if it means over paying significantly. If we aren't going to use FA and Trades to obtain top tier talent, then we must be significantly better at everything else.

If we assume $9M/WAR then at $51M in salary (the remainder of his contract the Twins would pay), Price needs to be worth an average of ~2 WAR for the next 3 years. Over the past 3 years he has an average of 2.6 bWAR & 2 fWAR. It would appear that if the Red Sox take on $45M of his salary, the Twins should just get him for no prospects. At the very worst, we should throw in a low minors wild card. I would even argue, he shouldn't be expected to put up 2 WAR seasons on average. He is going into his age 34 season and his fastball fell almost 1 full mph last year and it is now at 92mph. Price throws 4 pitches: four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, changeup and cut fastball. As he continues to lose velocity, how long until batters can wait to sit on the changeup because the fastball isn't fast enough to catch them off guard? IMO, Price isn't going to continue to age well.

I don't get why people think Archer would cost a lot (other than the Pirates wanting to save face...but that is irrelevant when talking about what is fair). He hasn't been above average in 4 seasons by ERA and while historically he has had a good FIP, he also perennial has ERA >> FIP, so IMO, that isn't his true talent level. Also, he is coming off of a terrible year in which his ERA was 5.19 and his FIP was 5.02. Plus, he ended the year on the IL; yes he claims he is 100% ready to go for 2020 but it is just another red flag. He is also going to be 31 this season and he lost a full MPH on his fastball in 2019. IMO, an average pitcher is about the best that can be hoped for at this point and the most likely outcome here is back of the rotation starter. At that point why spend the prospect capital when we could just sign one still on the market? What are people's expectations moving forward here? What do people believe the odds are he will have an ERA in these ranges: < 3.50 3.50 - 3.75 3.75 - 4.00 > 4.00

Fangraphs had a whole article on this earlier this year. Their conclusion was there are 3 ways to move Price and get under the luxury tax limit. First, receiving team takes on all the contract and basically wipes out the entire Red Sox farm system. Second, receiving team takes on whole contract but also gets Benintenidi. Third, receiving team gets Price, Eduardo Rodriguez and $30MM (over the 3 years of the contract). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-prices-trade-value/

This wouldn't help the Twins in 2020 but I would like to see them inquire about Jameson Taillon. He underwent TJ surgery last fall and will miss 2020 but it will be his first year of arbitration so the Twins could still get him for 2021 and 2022. I wonder if the Twins could get him at a discounted prospect rate. The Pirates are out of contention and will be for several years; it doesn't make a ton of sense for them to pay him to rehab and then pitch in 2021 then hope he is good enough to trade going into 2022.

Jose Berrios best season was this last and he had a 3.68 ERA. Here are the #3 starters for the World Series Champions for the last 10 years and their ERA: Lincecum- 3.43 Garcia- 3.56 Vogelsong- 3.37 Lester- 3.75 Hudson- 3.57 Ventura- 4.08 Hendriks- 2.13 McCullers- 4.25 Eovaldi- 3.33 Corbin- 3.25 Avg- 3.47 So, on average over the last decade, the 3rd starter in the WS Champion team was better than Berrios has ever been. Even if you want to say he is equal to these starters, there are still 2 starters better than him. What is the plan to acquire these starters. History shows World Champion baseball clubs have great pitching. Much better than what we ran out there last year and much better than we currently have for the 2020 season.