cHawk

The Minnesota Twins thought they were signing veteran infielder Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. Instead, they signed a rock-and-roll legend.
“We’re pleased to announce the unexpected signing of Donovan,” said Twins PR flack Dustin Morse. “We look forward to seeing how he can contribute to the team this spring. We’ll be making no further comment.”
Team sources who requested anonymity to speak freely, said a paperwork mishap at the league office sent Solano, 35, to the Rio Grande Rockin’ Ribs-o-Rama in El Paso, Texas. Despite having no identifiable musical talent, he’s opening for Smash Mouth on the Dairy Queen Grill ‘n Chill Stage.
“He played the recorder in grade school,” said Rich Marsden, Solano’s agent. “He will tear through ‘Hot Cross Buns’ and leave the crowd wanting more.”
Meanwhile, the oldest Twin since Jesse Orosco is headed to his first spring training.
“I’m terribly confused,” said Leitch.
The 76-year-old Scottish folk singer, known for songs like “Mellow Yellow” and “Season of the Witch,” is expected to report to Twins camp on Friday.
Some team officials are embracing the opportunity.
“Phish played ‘Hurdy Gurdy Man’ at The Great Went, brother,” said Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse.
“Trey was fire that night,” added Baldelli.
Still, with his 77th birthday on the horizon, most are skeptical that Leitch can contribute to the 2023 squad.
“He’s incredibly old,” said a source close to the front office. “He’s 40 years older than everyone else. He can’t hit for power or average. He has no natural position. He’s never played baseball. And those lyrics are straight nonsense. No one is mad about saffron. No one. Trash spice.”

With the new shift ban coming into effect in 2023, several Minnesota Twins’ hitters could stand to benefit. Joey Gallo, perhaps the face of the new rule change, is certainly one player who could see increased production. Max Kepler is another very pull-heavy hitter who could potentially see his numbers increase with a now more open right side of the infield. A lot of the focus of the shift ban has been directed to left-handed hitters, and understandably so.
The shift against left-handed hitters was quite apparent, as it often involved a second baseman in right field and sometimes four outfielders, making baseball traditionalists sick to their stomachs as none of the players were seemingly in the spots they were supposed to be. 
There is one Twins hitter who might benefit most from the shift ban that I have rarely seen mentioned. He may not be an obvious shift victim candidate due to his physical profile and offensive production in the last couple of seasons, but he stands to gain more from the rule change more than players like Kepler and Gallo. That hitter is Byron Buxton.
Believe it or not, Byron Buxton is not only the most pull-heavy hitter on the Twins but also the most pull-heavy player in all of baseball. According to Statcast, in 2022, out of hitters with 300 plate appearances, Buxton had the highest pull% in MLB at 54.2%. Gallo was eighth in pull% at 48.4%, and the league average pull% is 45.9%.
 

 
 
Teams noticed this pull-happy tendency from Buxton and adjusted their defenses accordingly. In 2022 among hitters with 250 plate appearances, Buxton was shifted 78.8% of the time, good for 34th most in MLB but second most among right-handed hitters, only trailing Eugenio Suarez of the Seattle Mariners. 
The shift impacted Buxton dramatically. Contrary to standard thought, Buxton only hit .188 (13-for-69) on ground balls, despite his world-class speed. His shift and non-shift splits were jarring as well. In the 301 plate appearances against the shift, Buxton registered a .312 wOBA. When there was no shift, Buxton’s wOBA was .517 in only 81 plate appearances. The league average wOBA is .316, so a .517 wOBA in an 81 PA sample is astounding. His .205 difference in shift versus non-shift wOBA was the biggest in all of baseball among players who received at least 15 plate appearances against both the shift and no-shift.  
 
 
While it is impossible that Buxton can sustain a .517 wOBA, it may have been understated how much he can benefit from the shift ban. While the strikeout rate may limit him from reaching the elite tier of hitters in MLB, Buxton makes as consistent and hard contact as anyone. He ranked in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in hard hit%. 
His .224 batting average in 2022 may have disappointed some, but I would be shocked if it stays that low in 2023. Being able to hit ground balls again opens up new avenues for all hitters, particularly for ones like Byron Buxton, who runs like the wind. So while this new era of baseball defense may take some below-average hitters to average ones, it may also take the Twins’ superstar into a class of his own.  

We’ve received more straightforward news on the Max Kepler front these last few days. After speculation grew regarding the Twins possibly keeping the left-handed outfielder, Dan Hayes reports that Kepler sticking around is likely at this point. It’s been discussed how Max Kepler still has value in the right role to help the Twins if he stays. This news does make us second guess parting with Gio Urshela earlier this winter, however.
The Twins decision to trade Gio Urshela was straightforward at the time. Jose Miranda is getting a fair crack at being the everyday third baseman, and Urshela’s projected arbitration salary was a bit high for a player whose role wasn’t certain. They followed it up by signing Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million prove-it deal. This all but cemented the fact that Max Kepler was on the way out, as six left-handed corner outfielders on the 40-man roster is beyond excessive. With the addition of Gallo and Kepler apparently staying around, however, the Twins may have misplayed their hand.
It appears the plan with Kepler still being in the mix is for Joey Gallo to play a lot of first base in 2023. With Alex Kirilloff’s health being in question and Gallo having some experience there, it makes sense given the state of the current 40-man roster. Consider however that given Joey Gallo's recent offensive struggles, a fair bit of his floor value comes from his defense in the outfield. Perhaps his offense rebounds to passable levels for a first baseman, but his ability to cover ground and throw out runners on the base paths would be all but nullified by a move to first base. 
Make no mistake, the debate didn’t have to be Urshela vs Gallo for the first base platoon role. It seemed that the plan was to trade Max Kepler for much of the offseason. The Twins asking price appeared to have been high all along, but given the level of player Kepler is at this point and the context of the roster, it’s confusing why they’d play hardball on his price on the trade market.
Urshela was a far more valuable player than Kepler in 2022 by any Wins Above Replacement measure and was essentially given away for free because of his redundancy with Miranda moving over to the hot corner. The irony in this is that the Twins now have Gallo, Larnach, Gordon, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Kepler as left-handed corner outfield options and it appears they haven’t lowered their asking price at all. Kepler has a $10 million option for 2024, but do the Twins really plan on paying that if Kepler’s performance from the last two years continues?
The Twins current roster includes a massive left-handed logjam with players like Joey Gallo out of position where his skillset isn’t being maximized. Several young players such as Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner who should be nearing their chance to show what they can do are now pushed further down the line by the excessive outfield depth chart. They could have a better platoon partner for Kirilloff and one more right-handed bat in Gio Urshela for less money, but instead, they traded this scenario away for a 19-year-old pitching prospect in the low minors.
It’s hard to say there weren’t miscalculations on the Twins part this offseason. Looking at the roster now, it becomes clear that Urshela’s value to the team exceeded the value he carried on the trade market. This is further exacerbated by the Twins appearing to overvalue Kepler on the trade market despite the obvious lack of need for him on the roster. If they valued Kepler this highly, why sign Joey Gallo at all as opposed to keeping Gio Urshela or designating that $11 million to a right-handed hitter with more experience at first base?
It’s possible Max Kepler is still traded before the season and that the roster makes a lot more sense on Opening Day. As things stand now, however, it sure looks like dumping Gio Urshela for anything they could get was a mistake. Do you agree?
 
 
 

When the offseason began, there were two certainties: The Twins would move heaven and earth to get Carlos Correa back, and Max Kepler was going to be traded.
Through a wild series of events, Correa is back in Minnesota for a while. However, that second certainty? At this writing, it’s uncertain at best.
“Spring Training is two weeks away and Max (Kepler, Twins outfielder) is still here,” said Twins outfielder Trevor Larnach. “We sort of removed him from all of our group chats. It’s weird.”
The signing of fellow lefthanded corner outfielder Joey Gallo seemed to signal that Kepler’s time as a Twin was nearing an end. The trade for Michael A. Taylor seemed to put an exclamation point to it.
And yet.
“I sort of moved my stuff into his locker at Target Field,” said Larnach. “It’s going to be awkward already when we start texting him out of the blue about Fort Myers restaurants and agreeing he’s right about how great German chocolate is. We get it, bro, you’re from Germany. The locker is harder to explain.”
Fellow outfielder Byron Buxton agrees that it’s going to take a little finesse.
“We all kind of thought he was gone,” said Buxton. “And he doesn’t quite have a handle on how we use emojis here, so if we welcome him back with the wrong one, it could get sideways. The ‘cry laughing’ one means something so disturbing where he’s from that he didn’t talk to (Ryan) Jeffers for two months.”
Larnach was asked if Kepler might be open to bargaining.
“I just read some Grimm’s Fairy Tales to acquaint myself with his culture,” said Larnach. “These stories are messed up. The Godfather Death ruins harvests and the Three Nymphs of the Black Forest steal your soul and your maiden fair. I don’t know what a maiden fair even is. Maybe I should just buy him a car?”
 

The Minnesota Twins bullpen is filling out nicely, projected as a top-five unit by some systems. They have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jhoan Duran and a strong supporting cast behind him, but there is plenty of noise that the Twins add one more right-handed reliever to fill out the bullpen. A popular candidate to re-sign for that last spot is one of their 2022 trade acquisitions, Michael Fulmer. 
Fulmer was solid for the Twins in the back half of the season, claiming a 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, with a 20.6% K% and 7.5% BB% for Minnesota post-deadline. There has been little noteworthy reporting on a potential landing spot for Fulmer this offseason. Would a reunion in MN make sense for the right-hander? 
Fulmer sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, but his calling card is his slider. Throwing it more than 60% of the time and averaging over 90 MPH, the pitch laid waste to right-handed hitters, as Fulmer held them to a .188/.287/.257 slash line in 2022. 
However, as devastating as he is to right-handers, he was quite the opposite versus left-handed hitters. Allowing a .337/.404/.526 slash line, this extreme platoon split limits Fulmer’s value, as he is only useful against one side of the plate. 
Fulmer toes a very fine line of success. His strikeout rate is just under league average (45th percentile), and he does a good job of limiting hard contact (61st percentile HardHit%), but walks were a problem for Fulmer in 2022. His 10.1% BB% was the 20th percentile, and while you can be an excellent reliever with a high walk rate, it is difficult to do so while missing bats at a below-league-average level. I believe Fulmer allows too many free passes to consistently rely on the variance of balls in play to be a sustainably reliable relief pitcher in the future. 
In addition to his struggles commanding the strike zone, Fulmer is starting to see deterioration in his pitch arsenal. Fulmer saw his pitch velocities decline by more than a mile per hour for all four of his pitches. 
The thing that concerns me the most is what happened to his slider. In addition to losing velocity, it started to lose movement. According to Baseball Savant, from 2021 to 2022, his slider lost more than an inch of horizontal break and an inch of vertical break. Given how often he throws this pitch and how critical it is for his success, declining speed and movement on his slider is extremely concerning moving forward. For a pitcher that is going to rely on soft contact for outs while also not throwing a lot of strikes, seeing their best pitch starting to slip is a red flag. 
I’m not opposed to re-signing Fulmer, but it would be a risky bet, and it would have to be a low-cost signing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins decided to fill that final bullpen spot with one of their relief prospects instead of Fulmer. Whether it’s Cole Sands, Ronny Henriquez, Trevor Megill, or another option, it’s not an unreasonable bet that the Twins can generate Fulmer’s value as a righty specialist elsewhere
 

Last season, Rocco Baldelli saw a significant number of players make their major-league debuts. We finally saw Royce Lewis play shortstop at Target Field, and Jose Miranda earned his way onto the roster after an incredible 2021. Simeon Woods Richardson closed out the season for the Twins, and hometown star Louie Varland took his turn as well.
Although the Twins are somewhat veteran-laden at several key spots, we’ll still see plenty of prospects pop up along the way this season. Trying to pick one player per month, here are a few names we could see for the first time in 2023:
April - To Be Determined
Prior to being traded for Michael A. Taylor, there was reason to believe that Evan Sisk could find himself in this spot. Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals for J.A. Happ, he's a high strikeout guy at Triple-A that hasn't been able to calm the walks. Maybe the Twins didn't see it happening and flipped him. If another prospect is going to debut this soon in 2023, it will likely be to replace an arm in the bullpen.
May - Austin Schulfer
Working as the Double-A Wichita closer for the first half of the year, Schulfer dominated. He then struggled across 32 2/3 innings at Triple-A St. Paul. Having moved fully to a bullpen role following the 2021 season, Schulfer looks the part of a quality major-league reliever. He should be called upon at some point this season when the bullpen could use a fresh arm. Starting strong for the Saints is a must in 2023.
June - Jordan Balazovic
Previously the best starting pitching prospect in the Twins system, things couldn’t have gone worse for Balazovic in 2022. He got off to a late start due to a knee injury, and despite suggesting he was healthy, never got back on track. The walk and home run rates skyrocketed last year, but turning it back to his 2021 and earlier numbers, Balazovic could rekindle some of the same prospect allure that made him a consensus top 100 type coming into the year.
July - Brent Headrick
A 9th-round pick in 2019, Headrick was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. His 4.81 ERA at Double-A was a byproduct of the longball, but he has shown the ability to generate strikeouts as a starter. Another lefty, Minnesota could opt to push him into a bullpen role, but either way, he’ll have ample opportunity to work his way toward Triple-A and beyond this season.
August - Brooks Lee
Taken with their most recent 1st round pick, Minnesota fans may see Lee as soon as this year. While it may look like he’s blocked on the dirt, there is no reason that he couldn’t play second base if Jorge Polanco is hurt or struggles. Lee looked incredibly advanced during his professional debut, and that justified promotions all the way up to Double-A.
September - Austin Martin
Once the key piece of a Jose Berrios trade, Martin’s prospect shine has faded some. He didn’t hit for power last season, and it led to a frustrating year at Double-A. His Arizona Fall League season went well, however, and returning to more of a pure hitter could be a good change. He may find a role in the outfield or move off of shortstop, but Martin figuring into Minnesota’s plans behind Byron Buxton may make some sense late.
October - Matt Canterino
This is truly a wild card as Canterino is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery last summer. He has great strikeout stuff, and while his delivery is unconventional, it may work exceptionally well in the bullpen. The former Rice product may be well served to put his starting days behind him, and if the Twins are in a run for the postseason, Canterino could provide a big boost to the bullpen.
What prospects are you most excited for in 2023 and who not on this list do you think could debut?

Last season for the Marlins, Pablo López posted a 3.75 ERA along with a 3.71 FIP. He’s jumped his strikeouts over one per inning in the past three seasons and continues to develop as a pitcher. His changeup is noteworthy, and his velocity sits in the mid-90s. Having debuted as a 22-year-old in 2018, he’s just entering his age-27 season.
Minnesota has seemingly been in a never-ending quest for quality starting pitching. After acquiring Cincinnati Reds starters Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle last year, the rotation as a whole grew stronger at the top. While Joe Ryan did start on Opening Day, he projects to slot in as a more middle-to-back-end type of arm. The Twins also will return veteran Kenta Maeda this season, and they have depth in the form of Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, and Simeon Woods Richardson.
The goal for Derek Falvey this offseason was to acquire a talent that met the Gray-threshold. Ideally,
Rocco Baldelli needs another arm that can pitch in a short playoff series and be trusted to get the job done. While it may be debatable how close they truly are, López can certainly be that guy.
Like the Twins did at the deadline, their goal in acquiring arms has been to avoid rentals. They would like to have time to work with pitchers and unlock whatever ceiling is seen for each individual. López is under two more years of team control via arbitration and is projected to make just over $5 million this year per MLB Trade Rumors.
A pitcher at that level, and with that amount of team control, isn’t going to come without a significant cost. That’s where 2022 American League Batting champion Luis Arraez enters the picture. He is a talented player that is truly beloved in the clubhouse and the fanbase. When unveiling their new uniforms back in November, Minnesota opted to have him on stage, and his smile was beaming. Arraez has only known the Twins organization throughout his professional career.
 
Minnesota fans know they are giving up a guy that doesn’t strike out, gets on base, and consistently hits for a high average. However, Derek Falvey is also likely conscious of Arraez’s deficiencies. Arraez has balky knees that have kept him from finishing seasons in recent years and is limited defensively, starting 94 games at first base and designated hitter last year. He has definitely done an admirable job shoring up first base when Baldelli needed him this year, but that position could be ticketed for Alex Kirilloff , among others, in 2023.
In the deal, Minnesota also gets Jose Salas from Miami, per Craig Mish. An infield prospect currently ranked 5th in the Marlins pipeline, he is a 19-year-old that spent 2022 playing at Single-A. With a .722 OPS across 109 games, Salas flashed some power blasting nine home runs. Baseball America’s profile of him this year concluded that “No matter where he winds up on the diamond, his offensive skills will make him a valuable player.” So the Twins add more young talent to their up-the-middle prospects on the farm.
The final piece of the deal going to Minnesota is 17-year-old outfield prospect Byron Chourio , per Mark Feinsand. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League last season playing 51 games. The .838 OPS was impressive, and largely backed by his nine doubles. There is some speed there as well considering he swiped 19 bases.
There’s no denying that Minnesota is getting a very good arm back in this deal, but López will have the weight of the world on his shoulders each time he goes out, knowing a fan favorite and clubhouse good guy was his price.

Despite what we experienced following the lockout prior to the 2022 Major League Baseball season, there is typically not a set window for free agents to sign. Although plenty are off the board at this point, it’s not as though the offseason was over for the Minnesota Twins. The problem is that their entire offseason hinged solely on Carlos Correa returning.
It was clear from the jump that Minnesota prioritized Correa, as they should have. Their initial 10-year deal for $285 million left plenty to be desired, but could have been reflective of their comfort with his long-term aging process. At any rate, that number was never initially going to get it done.
Sure, it took both the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets backing out of their deals to bring him in, but that doesn’t matter. No one in the Twins front office cares how it happened, and fans shouldn’t either. For the front office, there was little way to explain themselves out of it not getting done, however.
Early on this winter the Twins dealt for former Cincinnati Reds shortstop Kyle Farmer. He was seen as a baseline in order to give Minnesota a fallback option. They acted similarly a season ago when they swapped Mitch Garver for Isiah Kiner-Falefa. In and of itself, there is nothing wrong with that type of move. The problem is that Minnesota wasn’t good enough with Correa last year, and they almost certainly would not have been without him going forward.
Yes, injuries ravaged the 2022 Twins. There is plenty of reason to believe in a healthy Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton being a substantial upgrade to Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. That line of thinking assumes that future injury won’t occur however, and barring Nick Paparesta being some kind of witch doctor, there will still be situations to deal with.
In waiting on Correa, and ultimately missing when he was originally out there, the Twins were left out on their only other shortstop target Dansby Swanson. They never made a strong play for Xander Bogaerts (which wound up working out as the Padres spent crazy money) and they didn’t seriously pursue Trea Turner either. With plenty of bats gone, options at shortstop having dwindled, and even more arms off the board there was little place to pivot.
There is no denying that Correa being back with the Twins is a great thing, but that only gives Minnesota an opportunity to advance things further. They must figure out a way to move the outfield pieces around. Max Kepler has drawn significant trade interest, and Joey Gallo should be assumed to produce at a similar or better clip. Finding another quality pitcher is a must, and that has never looked likely to come from the free agent market. 
Correa’s acquisition means the Twins are roughly where they were a season ago. Christian Vazquez is an upgrade on Gary Sanchez, but there have been no other moves that finish the job. The bullpen still needs a piece, and the front office has money to spend. With Correa now on board, the rest of the offseason plan can continue to roll in motion.
Starting the season with Farmer at shortstop, questionable dollars spent to reach a realistic payroll threshold, and an offseason of watching talent sign elsewhere would have been nothing short of a nightmare. At points it was suggested a logical pivot to piecing out parts may have been necessary. That level of uncertainty should have never been a potential thought, and while the front office probably wouldn’t have agreed, their lack of options made it a legitimate question.
We haven’t yet reached the point of this being a slam dunk offseason, but it certainly has the potential to be all because the Twins got one guy back.

Once is a fluke. Twice is a trend. That’s all we really know about the state of Carlos Correa’s future employment and the ankle he injured a decade ago. Nine-figure deals with the Giants and Mets have either evaporated completely or exist in some kind of limbo. The Twins reportedly had limited interest in a reunion after the San Francisco signing fell through, despite their stated desire to sign him long term.
Something’s up. Fortunately, Twins Daily has access to the kind of advanced metrics other baseball websites can only dream of. Using these bleeding-edge tools, we’ve been able to project the next organizations that will sign Correa to a massive long-term contract, only for it to instantly go sideways.
The Pittsburgh Pirates. Reason: Thought it was Kevin Correia. Honest mistake. The Chicago White Sox. Reason: Team wants to save money for giving Tony La Russa one last shot at managing the game on the field versus the one happening in his mind palace. “He’s a Hall of Famer,” said team source. The Oakland Athletics. Reason: Signing ceremony postponed due to monthly raw sewage leak. The Miami Marlins. Reason: Correa would have to find location for hideous outfield home run sculpture and pay movers. "A dealbreaker," said Boras. The 1986 New York Mets. Reason: Boras, Correa refuse to be paid in cocaine. The Miami Heat. Reason: Only shoots mid-range jumpers. The Green Bay Packers. Reasons: Scott Boras balks at payment in worthless company stock; Correa thinks Kroll’s butter burgers are overcooked, has also never played football. Waffle House, Walterboro, SC location. Reason: Being on feet all day while catching chairs in midair enhances injury risk. The Fellowship of the Ring. Reason: Journey on foot to Mordor exacerbates stress on leg in question; Boras demands standard percentage of The One Ring, Isildur’s Bane, which was forged in the fires of Mount Doom and only there can be destroyed. Image license here.

Without question, the Twins remain intensely focused on their pursuit of Carlos Correa, which seems to be pushing all other offseason priorities to the backburner. 
Every report on the shortstop's market seems to name them among top remaining suitors, including this latest one from Jon Heyman on Saturday listing the Twins, Giants and Cubs among the "teams in on" Correa. 
More recently, the Yankees have emerged as a known contender for Correa's services, even after inking Aaron Judge to his landmark deal. ESPN's Buster Olney reported that he's "definitely picking up a lot of vibes there that yeah they signed Aaron Judge to that $360 million deal, but they’re working on something big."
It's natural for hometown fans to be skeptical of Minnesota's legitimate involvement at this stage against multiple big-market titans for a free agent likely to land $300M+ guaranteed. But outsiders don't necessarily share that skepticism, including Vegas.
As the website OddsChecker.com pointed out a couple days back, "The Twins are given -150 odds to retain Correa, that’s an implied 60% chance. The San Francisco Giants are right behind them though, as they’re given EVEN odds, an implied 50% chance, to land the star shortstop."
It's unclear exactly when Correa will make a decision. The pressure is turning up on the Twins as time passes, because their contingency plans have rapidly come off the table. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts have already signed. The idea of pivoting to another big bat like Jose Abreu, Willson Contreras or Brandon Nimmo is also diminishing as all those players are off the table.
Carlos Rodon remains at the top of the free agent pitching pool, but his market is robust. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins are viewing Dansby Swanson as a possible Correa fallback option, having met with the shortstop via video call during the Winter Meetings, but personally I hope (and suspect) that's merely a negotiating ploy to parry against Scott Boras, who is understandably doing all he can to land his client an epic payday.
You see it in small, subtle details like Heyman – a known friend if not mouthpiece of Boras – making a point to note Correa's appealing traits in a tweet updating his market. You see it in the fact Correa's free agency continues to linger as his camp evidently plays bidders against one another to run up the price. Eleven-year deals for Turner and Bogaerts set a sharp precedent, and really give Correa and Boras the ability to set their own terms.
Up to this point, the Twins still seem genuinely invested in meeting them. How long will they hang around if the cost keeps rising? How long can we maintain our sanity as this saga drags on and the front office remains stalled out?
Soon enough, the dominoes will begin to drop. It's probably a stretch to call the Twins favorites but without a doubt, they are in there. Would have been difficult to fathom just a few short years ago.

As you battle your fellow Minnesotans for the last Rosedale parking spot, hoping the sporting goods store has an XL Byron Buxton Twin Cities jersey you can drop half a paycheck on, you should know that there are many other online and brick-and-mortar outlets showcasing their wares for you, the hardcore Twins fan. Twins Daily has run the numbers, and what follows are the worst consumer options out there. Keep your head on a swivel.
20% off signed copies of “Why Is He So Tiny Now? An Oral History of Bret Boone’s Three Weeks as a Minnesota Twin.” $99 for a six-month premium subscription to My Favorite Blown Calls, Phil Cuzzi’s podcast about his signature umpiring moments. Free first-timer visit to Ken Mauer and Andrelton Simmons’ new holistic medicine outlet, Vitastrong, located in Maplewood’s worst strip mall. No vaccines, no doctors, just nutritional advice from a cooked shortstop and an NBA ref that looks like he wears a leather jacket to Latin Mass. Vitastrong is not responsible for any measles you get during your visit, and you will get measles. Trial subscription to Aaron Gleeman’s new Substack newsletter, Text Messages I Haven’t Responded To. The Twins beat writer shares all the texts he gets from other baseball writers, morning radio hosts with unlikely haircuts, and unwashed bloggers to whom he simply is never going to reply. Use code WOULDYOUJUSTSTOPDANA to receive 40% off. 50% off The Motivational Speeches of Tommy Herr. This 12-cassette collection from the recalcitrant infielder for whom we traded away Tom Brunansky is the perfect gift for the father or uncle you flat-out hate. Craigslist ad for Metrodome urinal trough. It says $40 or best offer, but it’s just a scam. Do not ask which Twins Daily writers have had their credit card information compromised by this too-good-to-be-true deal (OK, so far it’s Stu, Parker, and John).  

I take the Green Line to work every day between the Twin Cities. Light rail gets a bad rap from guys in Elk River who think cowering in fear of Minneapolis is something to brag about, but it’s 20 minutes there, 20 minutes back, and I can listen to podcasts about war or baseball.
Recently, while waiting for my train at the Prospect Park station, something caught my eye. Was it a food wrapper? No. An empty tallboy? No. It was a by god $10 bill. I picked it up, put it in my pocket, and tried to think of something I could do with it. As tempting as a fistful of Beef-and-Chedds from Arby’s is, this is found money. I do OK, it should go to a good cause.
In the end, there was only one right answer.
Carlos Correa , if you return to the Minnesota Twins, I will give you ten American dollars.
Now, I’m aware that your asking price is quite a bit steeper. I’ve read the interviews with Scott Boras and the copious hot stove analyses that say Minnesota is in play, but still an unlikely destination for your long-term services.
One thing I’ve also noticed: not a single GD one of them mentions paper money. This $10 bill I found? Cold hard cash. By the time you get to the end of this sentence, it’ll be worth more than every crypto scam and Twitter combined. And I’m telling you right now: You can have it. Just sign with the Twins.
I’ve watched enough bad shortstops over the years to know that your services are needed, especially with Royce Lewis’ health in question. The Boy Geniuses clearly agree and have already put together a competitive offer for your services. I’m putting $10 on top of what they’re already prepared to give you. Talk to Boras. Mull it over with your family. Take some time. I think you’ll agree this offer is fair, sound, and selfless.
I thank you for your consideration. (We can do the handoff at Arby's, too. First Beef-and-Chedd? On me.)
Regards,
Stu

Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. 

What Did He Do in 2022? 
Minnesota acquired Emilio Pagan shortly before last year's Opening Day. Minnesota's bullpen was shaping up to have Taylor Rogers as the anchor, but that plan shifted when the Twins sent Rogers to San Diego for Pagan and Chris Paddack. On the surface, it was easy to see the long-term value in the deal because Pagan and Paddack were both under contract for multiple seasons. However, the trade timing was tough to understand, and things couldn't have gone much worse from the Twins' point of view. 

Paddack looked great to start the year but quickly suffered an arm injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery. The Twins put Pagan into a prominent late-inning role, and he struggled for most of the season. He posted a 5.23 ERA in the first half with a 1.38 WHIP while allowing eight home runs in 32 2/3 innings. His ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.35) dropped in the second half, but the Twins moved him to a lower-leverage role. Since leaving Tampa Bay in 2019, Pagan has yet to post an above-average OPS+, and he has struggled to keep the ball in the park (1.9 HR/9). There is a reason San Diego looked for a new closer, and now the Twins may be trying to pass on Pagan. 

Why is He a Trade Candidate?
Bullpen depth can be tough to evaluate because of how volatile performances can be on a year-to-year basis. Tyler Duffey was arguably one of baseball's best relievers for multiple seasons before his performance declined significantly. That being said, the Twins have many options to consider for the 2023 bullpen. Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar will continue to serve in late-inning roles. Younger arms like Cole Sands and Jovani Moran may move into more prominent roles. Multiple players are also returning from injury, including Jorge Alcala and Cody Stashak. Minnesota's front office might decide Pagan isn't needed compared to the other bullpen options. 

What is His Trade Value?
Pagan is heading into his final arbitration season and is projected to make roughly $3.7 million. That is a reasonable contract for a pitcher with late-inning experience, but there are no guarantees with Pagan's performance. His stuff and strikeout numbers make it easy to see why teams viewed him as a viable late-inning relief option. If the Twins decide to trade him, they may need to send some money to pay down his 2023 contract, and this can allow the team to get a low-level prospect in return. Pagan hurt the Twins in 2022, and moving to a new team may help him to get his career back on track. 

Last winter, the Twins had an option on Alex Colome, whose Twins tenure resembled Pagan's. He pitched poorly in the first half before turning it around in the second half. Minnesota decided it was better to cut their losses and move on from Colome. This situation seems similar in that the team and player might be better served if Pagan is no longer on the Twins. 

Do you think the Twins can get anything back for Pagan? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
Gio Urshela

Re-live the last moments of optimism from a week ago, lovingly preserved in Hanging by a thread. @Number3 captured a moment in time when it was still possible for the Twins to get back in the race, just before Cleveland cut our last thread of hope.
But they can never cut our forum threads! Like how @PopRiveter wants to witness the battle of Arraez vs Evil -my last remaining reason to care. The whole world is watching Aaron Judge but can our own La Regadera ("The Sprinker") spoil his triple crown?
The Twins and Yankees not only share batting title competitors, they also share starting pitcher trade deadline disasters, as chronicled by @Brandon in Montas or Mahle, Which pitcher helped his new team the least? Unfortunately, that may be where the Twins and Yankees similarities end, as New York has been preparing for the postseason, while the well-seasoned Twins have been cooking on a post over a Cuyahoga River fire.
If you don't care to look backward or suffer the present, look to the future with @cHawk at the 2023 Rotation. There are plenty of arms to consider -- two arms per pitcher, in fact.
Over in the Other Baseball forum, @Vanimal46 is still thinking about baseball while watching football in Take Notes, MLB. What would you like to see MLB adopt from NFL broadcasts? If you said "illegal formation penalties," I've got good news for you!
Finally, the ballclub may be struggling, but the Minnesota Twins have finally become masters of their own domain. @Rosterman reports how a pair of real-life twins are likely celebrating a financial windfall as Twins.com finds a new home.
Would you have sold Twins.com? Or would you have dedicated it to Taylor and Tyler Rogers? Share your ideas in the forums.

As the Minnesota Twins closely monitor the condition of Byron Buxton’s knee, at least one fan thinks the whole situation has gone too far.
“There’s a difference between hurt and injured, and sometimes you have to play hurt,” said Charlie Johnsrud, 54, a real slob. “I think the Twins know this, but they’re coddling him a little bit.”
The Bloomington-based call center manager, who has called in sick to work because of a hangover twice in the last three months, claims it’s unusual for a team’s superstar to take so many days off.
“I just think, given the financial commitment the team made to him, that he has to put his big boy pants on,” said the twice-divorced goon, who has a pair of sweatpants he calls “my going-out ones.”
Johnsrud, who would drink the dipping sauce from Raising Cane’s out of a pint glass if people would just be cool about it, thinks Buxton’s patellar tendinitis is as mental as it is physical.
“He’s had a ton of injuries in his career, so he’s probably paranoid,” said Johnsrud, whose unused Lifetime Fitness membership is entering its fourth year. “He needs to get out of his head and onto the field, just saying.”
With the team out of first place for the first time in months, he thinks the urgency of the moment demands action.
“When I threw out my back, I still had to go to work,” said Johnsrud, who actually took two weeks off to recuperate after his cat scared him while he was on the toilet. “Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. They need all hands on deck.”
Johnsrud, who attacks a Culver’s ButterBurger with a ferocity not usually seen outside the animal kingdom, still considers himself a Buxton fan.
“I love the guy, I even bought a Buxton jersey last year. When he’s healthy he’s a beast.”
Johnsrud could not confirm if the significant stain on the jersey was ketchup or spaghetti sauce, but agreed that it looks like Germany.
 

Minnesota shored up its rotation and battered bullpen in front of the 2022 MLB trade deadline to near-universal acclaim from local and national media. With the team’s obvious needs met at the cost of a handful of good prospects, local fans are left wondering what happened.
“That’s not how this works, that’s not how any of this works,” said Bruce Johnstone, a retired teacher from Alexandria. “You need to be like (former Vikings GM) Rick Spielman and draft quarterbacks who can’t throw or just forget to sign offensive linemen. Then you keep the job for 15 years. There are rules.”
The Twins acquired frontline starter Tyler Mahle from the Reds, closer Jorge Lopez from the Orioles, and setup man Michael Fulmer from the Tigers. The troubling display of attention to roster shortcomings makes Johnstone wonder when the next shoe will drop.
“When you’re the Twins, you sign the deflated shell of Bret Boone or pretend Matt Shoemaker just needs a few adjustments,” said the 66-year-old. “Getting the right people at a manageable cost feels like a thing that the Yankees or Red Sox do while we trade for Sidney Ponson. Something isn’t right. I want some answers.”
Brenda Perkins, a diehard Twins and Minnesota Wild fan, agrees.
“If you’re a GM, the thing you do is sign veterans to these giant [REDACTED] millstone contracts,” said the 35-year-old Plymouth native. “Put them on the payroll until they’re 58, watch their skills degrade in real-time, and destroy your salary cap for a couple decades. Reasonable moves made to help bolster a pennant run without mortgaging the future? What are we even doing here?”
It’s not just fans. Aaron Gleeman, Twins beat writer for The Athletic and celebrity spokesperson for Scribe’s Choice Neck Fan Solutions, LLC, says he is as surprised as anyone.
“This is out of the ordinary, to say the least,” said Gleeman. “It’s usually tweaks or sell-offs. I think a lot of us are using code SURPRISE to get 30% off a 1-year subscription to The Athletic. It’s remarkable.”
For his part, Johnstone is keeping it all in perspective.
“Two of those guys will need Tommy John before Labor Day. A piano will fall on Byron Buxton. Spencer Steer is the next Mike Trout. The alternative is too bizarre to contemplate: a Minnesota team made a series of shrewd acquisitions to improve their playoff chances. Yeah, right.”
 

Going into the trade deadline on Tuesday, the Twins’ most significant need was obvious. They needed pitching. They were very successful in doing that, trading for relief pitchers Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer and starting pitcher Tyler Mahle.
Since the departure of Wes Johnson on June 30, the Twins’ starting pitching has been abysmal. Their 6.28 ERA is 28th in the league, their 5.25 FIP ranks 29th, and their 8.8 BB% is 28th. To compete in the playoffs, they must improve their starting pitching.
Usually, trading three top-20 prospects for a starting pitcher with more losses than wins and an ERA in the mid 4’s does not sound like a great idea. Although Mahle doesn’t look great on the surface, he is much better than these numbers indicate.
Bad Luck Ballpark
To start, Mahle pitched at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, which is the second worst park to pitch in, according to ESPN. When Mahle has pitched at home this year, he is 2-5 with a 4.76 ERA while allowing nine home runs in 64 innings. In road games, he is 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA and only three home runs allowed in 40 innings. Target Field is the second best park to pitch in, so Mahle will go from being at a heavy disadvantage to a severe advantage simply by changing home stadiums.
Mahle is one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league, partially due to playing in Cincinnati. Mahle sports a 4.40 ERA, which is problematic. However, his expected ERA is 3.20, a full run below his actual ERA. This shows that he is due to have some regression and will eventually lower his ERA due to playing in a pitchers’ park. Among Twins starters, Mahle has the lowest expected ERA and the lowest expected batting average against (.206).
Swing-and-Miss Stuff
When asked about the Mahle trade, Carlos Correa knew he would be effective. “I checked his Baseball Savant, and there’s a lot of red,” said Correa. Mahle’s Baseball Savant percentile rankings are shown below, and Correa was right.

Mahle does a great job of missing bats, ranking in the 70th percentile in strikeout rate and the 67th percentile in whiff rate. He is also in the top 25 percent of pitchers in the expected weighted on-base average, expected ERA, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage. Mahle also has the best strikeout and whiff rate of any Twins starting pitcher. The Twins badly need a starting pitcher who can miss bats, especially when three regular Twins starting pitchers are in the bottom 30 percent of all pitchers in strikeout rate (Archer, Bundy, Smeltzer). 
Seventy-nine of Mahle’s 114 strikeouts this year have ended with a fastball, as that is his best pitch. Mahle’s fastball has a Stuff+ ranking of 119, which means it is 19 percent above league average when factoring in velocity, movement, arm angle, and release point. Opposing hitters are batting .200 with a .371 slugging percentage against his fastball, but the expected average is .167 with an expected slugging percentage of .293.
In a playoff series, it helps when you have a pitcher who can strike out opposing hitters at will. Mahle may not have the strikeout stuff of pitchers such as Corbin Burnes and Gerrit Cole, but he has shown time and time again that he can miss bats and rack up strikeouts when needed.
Another benefit of Mahle is that he can go deep into games. Mahle has gone at least five innings in 12 of his 13 starts and into the sixth inning in 11 of his 13 starts. With an improved bullpen, Mahle could save arms and go deep into games, potentially letting the Twins rely on their top bullpen arms of Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez and saving some other arms.
Playoffs?!
Under the new playoff format, the Twins will likely be in a wild card series which would play a best-of-three series. Before the trade, the Twins would have started Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Chris Archer in a series. Now, they will throw Mahle, Gray, and Ryan.
Pitching wins championships in baseball, and the Twins have added their ace in Tyler Mahle, who I believe should be the Twins’ game one starter in a playoff series.
Who do you think should be the Twins’ game one starter? Mahle, Gray, or Ryan? Leave a comment and start a discussion.
Thank you for reading, and Go Twins!
 
 

Despite all the issues and the 19 crippling blown saves, the Twins had one advantage in their bullpen: a young, terrific weapon in Jhoan Durán, who’s carried the late-innings all year. Griffin Jax, another first-year reliever, has been more than serviceable with a 3.49 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 43 innings. It’s Durán, though, who made fixing the bullpen woes at the deadline easier than it appeared. 
Durán is tied with Guardians’ generational closer Emmanuel Clase for the most Win Probability Added among relievers in the American League (2.80). He owns a sterling 2.15 ERA in 46 innings, striking out 58 and walking only 10. Durán’s emergence is a primary reason why the Twins are in first place. It’s hard to imagine where they’d be without him. 
Durán’s excellence allowed the Twins to flip the bullpen picture completely. They already had one outstanding right-handed reliever and then traded for another. Jorge Lopez, who now has a 1.64 ERA in nearly 50 innings, completes one of the more overwhelming duos in baseball. López and Durán have combined for a 1.87 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 96 ⅓ innings. While Durán wows with one of the hardest four-seam fastballs in baseball, López induces chopper after chopper with a turbo sinker at 98-100 mph. It’s a deadly combo for opposing hitters. 
The late innings will primarily belong to the two flamethrowers, but Michael Fulmer is an under-the-radar pickup for the Twins. Fulmer shuts down right-handed hitters, holding them to a .136 batting average and zero homers in 102 plate appearances. 
Fulmer has given up one extra-base hit to a righty all season, a double from his new teammate Gio Urshela on July 24th. No righty has barreled Fulmer this season. In a division and league loaded with right-handed talent, he should continue to thrive in those matchups. Fulmer and Jax both have elite sliders, holding opponents to a combined .170 batting average. 
Depth is as important as the stars, and Trevor Megill has filled in wonderfully. Megill has a sub-2 ERA in 19 outings, regularly reaching 100 with his fastball while showing good command. Megill, Durán, and López all average over 97 mph with their primary fastballs. When’s the last time the Twins had three high-velocity arms in their bullpen?
Caleb Thielbar hasn’t shined in the ERA department, but his 3.09 Fielding Independent Pitching shows he’s been unlucky. Thielbar has a 1.38 ERA over his last 13 innings and a 2.90 ERA over his last 34 outings. He’s a reliable lefty and has held left-handed hitters to a .180/.281/.260 line. 
Even Emilio Pagán, who the Twins demoted to a lower-leverage role, has a 3.18 ERA and 2.23 FIP with 21 strikeouts over his last 12 outings. This bullpen picture gets even brighter if he can fill a vital sixth-inning role. Pagán could redeem some of his value with a solid final two months. 
It’s impossible to ignore the bullpen’s issues up to this point. Pagán and Tyler Duffey have allowed 40 earned runs in 79 ⅓ innings. Joe Smith, while excellent early, was so poor that the Twins DFA’ed him despite being the largest bullpen acquisition of the offseason. 
Even with the much-improved outlook, there’s still hope and depth outside the 26-man roster. If Jorge Alcalá can return, he’d provide Rocco Baldelli with another high-octane option for the late innings. Alcalá posted a 0.82 ERA with 27 strikeouts over his final 22 innings of 2021.
Jovani Moran, who the Twins optioned Wednesday, has a 1.93 ERA in 20 outings with the Twins this year. Kenta Maeda, a relief ace for the Dodgers in the past, is working to return for the stretch run in the Twins’ bullpen. 
They still have to play the games and stay healthy, but this group looks excellent. The Twins have seldom had this many reliable relievers in one bullpen, and they’ve never had a duo with the weaponry of Durán and López. If the Twins win the division and make a run into October, the bullpen will be a crucial reason why. 
What do you think of the Twins’ revamped bullpen? Comment below!
 

Now, to be clear: this plan is designed to make the Twins credible postseason contenders, not World Series favorites. I'm not of the mind that they should go "all in" and trade premium future capital for the sake of a short-term push, because I don't think they're at a point of overall team quality where it makes sense to significantly sacrifice the future.
With that said, opportunities like this are not guaranteed to come along often, and when you find yourself in this position you've got to take a shot. I think these moves would help the Twins address their key weaknesses in a meaningful way and set themselves up for postseason success without selling the farm.
Here are five completely speculative ideas for hypothetical trades:
Acquire SP Noah Syndergaard from Angels for INF Keoni Cavaco and LHP Devin Smeltzer
I'll be honest: I have no idea what it'll take to get Syndergaard. He'll have a market, for sure, but he's nowhere near the top of the value chart among available starters. Having signed a one-year, $21 million deal with the Angels during the offseason, he's due about $7 million in the final two months, and a free agent in waiting.
Syndergaard has been solid this season, but far from his electric pre-surgery norm. His velocity hasn't fully returned since 2020 Tommy John surgery and his strikeouts are way down. In some ways, you're betting on him clicking down the stretch, kind of like Justin Verlander did in 2017.
Is it likely? No, especially to that extent. But even if he stays the current course Syndergaard is a solid pitcher – a clear upgrade over anyone in the Twins rotation not named Gray or Ryan – and a respectable postseason option. And the cost can't be that high.
Like I said, I have no idea what a realistic return for Syndergaard looks like, but the one suggested above feels plausible. The Angels get back 2019's #13 overall draft pick in Cavaco, who has struggled early in the minors but is still only 21 and showing signs of breaking through at Single-A. The Angels are likely familiar with SoCal native and former prep star. Smeltzer adds a bit of floor to the ceiling-focused deal for LA – a solid MLB starter or swing man with three years of team control remaining.
If this package proves to be too light, I'm okay giving up a bit more. I really want Syndergaard on the Twins, and this feels like a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make that happen..
Acquire RP Daniel Bard from Rockies for LHP Cade Povich
David Robertson is the biggest prize among deadline relief rentals, and that means someone's gonna have to grossly overpay for him. That might also be true of Bard, who's probably the second-best closer among impending free agents, but less so. As great as he was in the first half for Colorado, Bard can't escape the shadow of his track record, which includes a seven-year break from the major leagues after he got the yips in his late 20s and lost the strike zone. 
That history is out of sight, with Bard back to dominating this year behind triple-digit heat ... but it's not out of mind. Last year he posted a 5.21 ERA out of the Rockies bullpen with the same top-notch fastball velo. He's the definition of a volatile asset. And giving up Povich – a third-rounder from last year's draft, averaging 12.1 K/9 at High-A ball and Twins Daily's #10-ranked prospect in the organization – for such a volatile short-term asset is a tough pill to swallow. But with the competition for back-end bullpen arms, it may take something like that. 
It's worth it to get the high-impact late-inning weapon that the Twins need to protect and complement Jhoan Duran. But I'm not stopping there.
Acquire RP Matt Moore from Rangers for INF Edouard Julien and RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
The Rangers hit gold on their spring signing of Moore to a minor-league deal, seeing him blossom in a full-time relief role with a 1.61 ERA, 2.57 FIP, and 10.1 K/9 rate in 44 ⅔ innings through 33 appearances. 
Just like with Bard, the Twins would be buying high on a veteran impending free agent with a wobbly track record, but as in that case, the metrics fully back up his excellence up to this point. The lefty Moore has been extremely effective, and could bring much-needed length to a bullpen that's been leaned on heavily. Moore has recorded more than three outs in more than half of his appearances for Texas (17) including two full innings in 13 of them.
Julien and Gipson-Long are both intriguing players having good seasons in the 15-20 range of Minnesota's top prospect list. The Rangers would likely be very happy to get this kind of future capital in exchange for a flier they snagged on a minor-league deal.
Acquire LHP Rich Hill from Red Sox for 1B Miguel Sano
Okay, I'm trying to think creatively with this shot in the dark. The Twins are clearly ready to move on from Sano, so I tried to figure out a scenario where trading him might be remotely plausible. I can't see anyone giving up a prospect for him, but this feels like kind of a "why not" move for both sides.
The slumping Red Sox – now in last place! – are longshots to make the playoffs. They need a huge spark to go on a run and overcome the many other wild-card contenders in the American League. They're not going to get that from Hill, a back-of-rotation starter who's currently rehabbing from a knee injury and expected to return in early August. But let's say Sano hits a couple homers over the next week and inspires some small belief that he could come in and bang the ball over the Green Monster for a couple months. The Twins pay off half of Sano's remaining ~$5M commitment so the money is basically a wash.
Hill is not an ace that's going to turn around the staff's fortunes or anything, but he could be useful for the Twins down the stretch and into the playoffs. He's pitched reasonably well this year (102 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP in 70.2 IP) and has familiarity here from the 2020 season. The 42-year-old would probably appreciate the opportunity to go to a more legitimate contender for what might be his last chance for a championship run.
Acquire C Kurt Suzuki, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges, or otherwise for PTBNL
The Twins need a dependable veteran catcher to bridge the gap until Ryan Jeffers returns. The above are examples of of no-hit, glove-first guys who are impending free agents on teams going nowhere. They'll be available for nothing of consequence, so I don't even feel the need to hypothesize a return, but it's definitely something they need to get done.
The End Result
By carrying out the plan above, the Twins would address three key needs -- the rotation, the bullpen, and backup catcher -- without giving up any truly indispensable prospects, although they would be parting with a quantity of good young talent.
Syndergaard joins Gray and Ryan atop the rotation to form a viable postseason core. Hill could become part of that picture if he throws well, otherwise simply provides some innings down the stretch. Bard and Moore power up the bullpen significantly, pushing Griffin Jax and Caleb Thielbar into seventh-inning roles, and the rest of the questionables (Tyler Duffey, Emilio Pagan, Joe Smith, etc.) into lower-leverage middle relief or possibly even DFAs.
You can quibble with the specifics, but the overarching thought is that the Twins avoid giving up critical assets by aiming lower than the top names on the market (but not much lower) and not targeting additional years of team control. For me, that's the perfect deadline approach. 
What are your thoughts on this plan? Are the prices I've laid out too light? Too steep? What would you do? Sound off in the comments!

First and foremost, let’s get this out there. The idea of dealing one of your top two players while leading the division seems asinine in and of itself, regardless of the tenure Carlos Correa was going to have with the Twins, Minnesota was able to bring him through a perfect set of circumstances, and he immediately makes their chances to win in the postseason this year that much better.
Bad teams look to sign veterans on expiring deals in order to flip them for prospects. Minnesota is not a bad team, Correa’s contract is not a traditional one-year deal, and the chief purpose of bringing him in was always to win.
Ok, now, let’s go down the rabbit hole of actually dealing him. The only reason to do this would be for Minnesota to recoup more future value than the absence of Correa would provide. However, given their positioning for the current postseason, they’d need to keep a similar level of overall talent on the big league roster. That means Minnesota’s front office would be hard-pressed to explain dealing Correa for a package filled with future prospects. There would have to be a current major-league asset included, and that would likely water down the overall value.
Then there’s the reality that the Twins are trying to replace a guy that’s consistently put up at least 3.0 fWAR on an annual basis, and is again angling to do that. Of the more than 1,500 players to appear at the major-league level last season, 64 of them posted a 3.0 fWAR or better (roughly 4%). To summarize, a player worth 3.0 fWAR in any given season is an incredibly valuable asset. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were both considered uber prospects for the Twins in their time. Buxton has surpassed 3.0 fWAR in half of his eight big league seasons while Sano has never done so and has been worth a total of just 8.4 fWAR across eight seasons. Trying to nail a prospect, even the best ones, is an inexact science and could leave any potential return feeling light for years down the road.
Looking at Baseball Trade Values, Correa himself is also not some juggernaut in terms of expected value. The simulator puts him at 15.4 at the median, which ranks just above prospect Spencer Steer’s 14. By comparison, the Nationals Juan Soto is at 176.8 as a median trade value. Getting a prospect like Yankees Anthony Volpe would require something like 52.6 in trade value, and even a big league ace in Luis Castillo would require something like 41.2 in median trade value.
What we’re getting at here is that while Correa is ridiculously talented, and potentially one of the best players that could be had, his value is held down in being a current rental for any acquiring team as well. Although a new organization would possess exclusive negotiating rights to a new deal, Correa would still be looking for the long-term payday that takes him at least through his age 37 or 38 season. Arguably the best way to drive his price up is by finding multiple bidders on the open market. Whether a team believes they can sign him or not, they’d need some sort of guarantee from Scott Boras (unlikely) before giving up value assuming the player is more than a two or three-month hired assassin.
All of this continues to turn back to the Twins. There are very few ways that dealing Carlos Correa would make them better immediately. The likelihood that dealing him makes them better in the long run is bleak as well. Sure, if he leaves, they lose him for nothing, but it was always assumed this was a one-year thing in which he could contribute during a postseason run. Why would you embark on that path at the beginning, and then deviate from it when it’s going so well?

Not so long ago, it appeared as though the Twins might be able to get by with a couple of bullpen pickups at the trade deadline. Not that doing so was going to make them World Series favorites or anything, but when the offense was clicking and supported by a consistently solid rotation? The front office might have believed – or at least publicly advanced – that a few relief upgrades would sufficiently help them secure the division and present a credible postseason threat.
Much has changed in a few weeks' time.
With the rotation nosediving into the break, and their lineup now missing a key piece in Ryan Jeffers, the Twins have seen their list of needs grow as the deadline approaches. At this point, to position themselves as true contenders, it feels like they need to add a frontline starter for sure, and they could really use a catcher. Meanwhile those pesky bullpen needs have not gone away. Far from it.
That makes for a hefty shopping list. To fulfill all of these needs at high-demand positions in a seller's market will be very costly. Facing this harsh reality, the front office is going to have to ask itself: 
Is it worth it?
Acquiring the kind of impact talent needed to put this team in a strong position will mean making painful sacrifices. If they really want to push, the Twins will need to part with a quantity of high-caliber prospect talent and maybe even established young players like José Miranda, Trevor Larnach, or Alex Kirilloff. 
There's also a strong case to be made that big, splashy deadline moves aren't as impactful as many perceive – not to mention the frequency of costly backfires. (Imagine if the Twins traded Byron Buxton for Noah Syndergaard at the 2019 deadline.) Atlanta's 2021 exemplifies how a more conservative, low-wattage approach to addressing various needs can work. 
Of course, such thinking won't do much to satiate fans who are hungry for decisive and definitive action. And maybe that's the right attitude. Even if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine always seemed to be setting their gaze more on 2023 and beyond with the latest offseason strategy, they can't take for granted where they're at right now.
They can't take for granted they'll have Buxton and Luis Arraez both healthy and playing at an All-Star level next year. They can't take for granted they'll have anything approximating the force that is Carlos Correa on their roster. 
They can't take for granted they'll be in first place at the break, with a chance to act as a buyer and aspiring champ, because we saw just last year how the best laid plans can go awry.
Logical as they are, this front office understands that once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. (Yes, even for the Twins.) They know that these opportunities don't present themselves every year. And they didn't throw $35 million at Correa for no reason. 
All of which leads me to believe the Twins will assuredly be active at the trade deadline. They are going to make multiple moves. As to how bold and audacious those additions will be? That's the big question, and we'll find out soon enough. 
With the deadline now less than two weeks away, we'll be covering every rumor worth sharing here at Twins Daily. And starting today, we're rolling out special trade deadline preview content for those who contribute to the caretaker fund at any tier. Each of the next six weekdays we'll be sending out "Division Dossiers" with breakdowns of buyers and sellers, as well as trade targets who might appeal to the Twins from each team. This is the top-secret intel you need to be ready for anything during Deadline SZN.
Check out a preview snippet below, and if you haven't already, sign up as a caretaker now to get the full dossier plus five more in the week ahead.

Thursday’s off day provided the Minnesota Twins with some much-needed downtime, including their annual Summer Potluck. But the charcuterie turned to carnage when members of the Twins bullpen botched their dish, injuring dozens in the clubhouse.
“We had a real nice spread laid out,” said a team source. “Buffalo chicken dip, sliders, Minnesota sushi, you name it. Then all of a sudden I just hear shouting and screaming and then the burning. The burning.”
Sources say the bullpen was assigned chips and ice, but when reliever Emilio Pagan got lost on his way to Kowalski’s and drove to Fort Smith, Arkansas instead, they improvised a pasta salad. That’s when the trouble began.
“First of all, they didn’t have any of the ingredients one would need to make a pasta salad,” said a clubhouse source. “They had plenty of enthusiasm, but noodles? No. Veggies? No. Dressing? No. A pot and water? Again, no.”
“I can’t stress this enough: the clubhouse doesn’t have a stove,” said former Twin and current Bally Sports North analyst Glen Perkins. “They removed it after they found out (Carl) Pavano was living there for a couple years to in his words ‘let some things sort themselves out.’ You couldn’t even start a fire if you wanted to. And yet.”
Multiple cell phone videos appear to show Twins reliever Caleb Thielbar and other unidentified relief pitchers pouring a Ziploc bag labeled “MAKE CAR GO WATER, DON’T DRINK” on a bucket of gum and sunflower seeds, then attempting to light the unconventional salad with a road flare.
“If I heard them correctly, they said they were marinating the gum and seeds mixture and hoping to sear it to seal in the juices,” said manager Rocco Baldelli. “Right before the flames engulfed us, I heard Thielbar call it a Goodhue County sous vide. I don’t think that’s right.”
A team spokesperson said that no decision has been made about rescheduling Friday’s game at Texas. Although the injuries are minor, the spokesperson said the bullpen is entirely healthy and they must consider that before making the final call.
 

Rumor has it the Twins were so mortified by the recent results in Detroit that they fled the country, to Toronto! Nobody's fleeing the forums, though, where topics ranged from rosters to roles to assorted ephemera.
Detroit: Rocco City? Not likely, says @Number3 in June Schedule. They don't think the Twins will rock in Cleveland at the end of the month either, to say nothing of the AL East teams in between.
To get us back to our winning ways, @alexthegreat asks, How do you address the Twins bullpen? With the AAA shuttle in full effect, you may need two envelopes: Twins Bullpen, 1 Twins Way, Minneapolis, and Saints Bullpen, 360 North Broadway, St. Paul. And if you're including a separate letter for each reliever on the roster, you'll need a boatload of stamps!
Ravaged by injuries, the Twins have struggled to fill out a lineup card recently. Think you can help? Just write Put me in coach, I'm ready to play on a 3x5 card, include your name and address, and send to 1 Twins Way at the address above. @Kume34 thinks Byron Buxton should send in a card too, advocating to play more often.
Catcher is one of few Twins positions not affected by injuries so far in 2022 (knock on Hunter Wood). And while Jeffers may have more time behind the plate, @bighat makes the case that Gary Sanchez is the Twins #1 catcher right now. Could the ex-Yankee help us break our postseason curse? We'll get a preview next week when New York visits Target Field.
The Twins played a doubleheader this week; @rwilfong86 posted one too. The schadenfreude of following a former Twin struggle in Berríos trade was followed by the welcome distraction of Favorite Piece of Memorabilia. Do you have a Rob Wilfong game-worn mustache, Lew Ford's apocryphal clothes iron, or a piece of the Metrodome wall bearing an indentation of Butch Huskey's face?
Whether you have Twins treasure, or a treasured Twins take, you can share it with the community of fellow fans in the TD forums.

With the Minnesota Twins holding a surprisingly sturdy lead in the American League Central, it’s no wonder that the team’s fans have some strong words about their unexpected success.
“It is absurd to me that they treat Byron Buxton with kid gloves,” said Hank Winters, 67, a retired bank executive. “Harmon Killebrew played every day and he’s in the Hall of Fame. Buxton may as well just work for the government. Sick of this.”
The Twins lead the heavily favored and godless Chicago White Sox by three games after a rocky 4-8 start. They're on pace to win a stunning 94 games. This playoff-worthy effort has given the fanbase plenty to talk about.
“Royce Lewis hits the cover off the ball and you send him to Triple-A,” said Beck Bradford, 41, a youth volleyball coordinator from Castle Rock Township. “Miranda can’t hit a bull in the ass with a handful of sand and Correa won’t even be here next year. But the boy geniuses (Twins executives Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) looked at the algorithms and said, ‘Nope, Royce, you go over to St. Paul, grab a stool at Alary’s, get comfortable. Don’t call us, we’ll call you.’
“I’ve never been more angry,” added Bradford.
Minnesota’s 22-16 record can be chalked up to several factors, perhaps none more important than the bullpen, which has been asked to do a lot with the starters still rounding themselves into shape after the lockout-shortened spring. This has not gone unnoticed.
“Chris Paddack is already going under the knife for Tommy John and we have no consistent closer,” said Tamara Kapsner, 49, a car salesperson in Robbinsdale. “Meanwhile, Taylor Rogers is going to the All-Star Game. If I made that kind of deal at my job they wouldn’t have to fire me, I’d just throw my [EXPLETIVE] in a box and go. Great call. Super.”
With the team’s schedule remarkably soft over the next couple weeks, the chance for Minnesota to put some space between them and the rest of the Central has people talking.
“I never took PTO in 27 years at TCF (Bank),” said Winters. “Because I had a work ethic. Did I miss birthdays and graduations and custody hearings and my third marriage? Yes. All of them. Cry more, Byron.”
“Spreadsheet oughta be manager, not Rocco (Baldelli),” said Bradford. “Bleep boop, pivot table, bench Correa, he’s played one game in a row, might hurt himself again.”
“May as well just trade (Jhoan) Duran for (retired former Twin) Mike Pelfrey,” said Kapsner. “Disgusting. Pohlads should’ve contracted them when they had the chance.”
 

First it was the pitchers as Josh Winder made the Opening Day roster, and then Cole Sands followed him during his first career start. Jose Miranda crushed Double and Triple-A last season before drawing his first big league start at the hot corner. The goal for Minnesota was to have both a good Major League team, but also establish real depth that could immediately make an impact from the farm.
You can now make the argument that pipeline is bearing fruit, and we can take a looking at the names that could be next up:
Spencer Steer
The least likely of this group, Spencer Steer is a solid infielder at Double-A Wichita. He was a 3rd round pick out of Oregon in 2019 and posted an .833 OPS split between High-A and Double-A last season. Through the first month of 2022 Steer owns a .300/.398/.488 slash line for the WInd Surge, and has now played nearly 100 games at that level. With Miranda moving up to the majors, Steer could be in line for a promotion to Triple-A if the stay becomes long-term for Miranda.
Steer can play second, third, and shortstop, but finds himself most at home playing the hot corner. Power production showed up in a big way last year when he blasted 24 homers, and it was clear he put in serious work during the canceled 2020 season. He’s been a doubles machine so far in 2022 but the longballs will fly as the weather warms.
He’s not on the 40-man roster and there’s a few non-roster veterans that may be opted for first, but Steer certainly has the chops to help the Twins should his number be called.
Matt Canterino
A product of Rice University, Canterino has been held back by injury like so many to go through the program. He possesses a unique windup and has a lot of movement in his delivery. Canterino is a very hard thrower though, and his 13.9 career K/9 is beyond impressive.
Throwing just 21 innings last year, Canterino is being handled very carefully after beginning the season at Double-A. He’s made five starts but has accumulated just 12 2/3 innings across them. His 2.13 ERA is impressive but the command has become a bit of an issue early this year with nine walks. He still has big strikeout stuff mowing over 18 batters, and he’s yet to allow a home run.
Canterino has never thrown more than 25 innings during a single season of his professional career, and Minnesota certainly is hoping to change that this season. Managing his workload and helping a good big league team, Canterino could be called upon to debut out of the bullpen with a higher level of effort. He too would need a 40-man roster spot.
Royce Lewis
Quite possibly the most likely prospect promotion is also the most exciting. Lewis missed two years due to the pandemic and then an ACL surgery prior to Spring Training in 2021. He’s back and debuted at Triple-A to start 2022. You could make the argument that the former top 10 prospect looks as good as he ever has.
There’s a notable difference in his swing as Lewis has calmed the leg kick dramatically. His hands are a bit quieter and the results have certainly followed. Through his first 21 games for the St. Paul Saints, Lewis is slashing .320/.441/.587 with three homers, nine doubles, and a triple. Maybe even more encouraging is how well Lewis is covering the plate and dictating at-bats. The talented shortstop owns a strong 18/15 K/BB and he’s used elite speed to swipe five bases on six attempts.
Minnesota doesn’t seem to question whether Lewis can stick at shortstop, but barring a Carlos Correa injury the opportunity wouldn’t seem to immediately be there. Lewis has played in the outfield professionally and could find an opportunity as the right-handed outfield bat that the Twins continue to seek. While not the prototypical corner slugger, there’s power that can play, and he’d be an elite defender with range that would match that of Byron Buxton.
Ultimately I don’t foresee any of these options coming to fruition prior to June. Each has hurdles to clear and time to substantiate current performances. They are all names to watch though, and none of them would represent a shocking debut should they reach Target Field in 2022.
Who are you most looking forward to seeing next?