jay

It seems there's a general consensus on what we need, which is at least a start. As long as they get a WR early and 2 of 3 from ILB, DB, DT before the end of the 2nd rd, I'll be happy. Some pretty decent DBs and ILBs still on the free agent market that I would mind seeing come in either.

I agree completely. I could swear you were just arguing against this approach in the other thread related to the Orioles game?

You've never seen a starter pulled before he can take the loss after a solid day? Seems to be something I've seen an awful lot.

It's true that he was at a reasonable pitch count, but with a 1-run lead on the road... it doesn't seem hard to fathom that you'd want a decent reliever ready to come in if someone gets on base. Gardy didn't even have Burton get up until Cain had already laced that double.

Your entire line of thinking about his utilization is based on believing that Perk has to get the last out of the 9th due to the "save" stat. I disagree. Separately, as we went over earlier, I don't believe facing Davis would have been the best time to bring him in. I think he should have been warming up as soon as someone got on base in the 8th to be ready to go in if anyone else got on or else just have to stay warm a bit longer to pitch the 9th.

I'd agree completely with your first point and call that the larger factor. Today's pitchers, especially in the BP, are much closer to max exertion on every pitch. Thus, the number of relief appearances has increased. The second point, I'm not as sure about, but the numbers support your impression. Pitches per game have also increased since 1988. The average number of pitches thrown per game is rising » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive

I'd be shocked to hear you say Perk wasn't going to be pitching if we did still have that lead in the 9th. So, the real question becomes... when is the better time to use him? I'll take him in the 8th with runners on.

I don't know anyone who would call those hypothetical situations the same. However, all those averages amassed can certainly tell us plenty and you're missing a lot to so readily dismiss them. Yes, context always has to be applied. I can readily admit and identify a stat's shortcomings. Absolutely true, leverage (and WE and RE) can't capture the current game situation. The point remains that a manager should make his decision off both leverage and the current context (ie middle of the order, L/R matchups). Even all that said, the fact remains I'd rather see Perkins there, as soon as possible, with runners on base to preserve a lead in the 8th. As has been pointed out, even with context in consideration, why would we want to save Perkins for the bottom half of the order in the 9th?

That's exactly the point. So, use your best reliever to get you through that situation. You can't win in the 9th if you already gave up that lead. We can fundamentally disagree on which pitcher should be used there, but I want Perkins. We agree Perk is our best BP pitcher. So, should Perk pitch in the 9th inning predominantely? Sure. This index table shows that the potential range of leverage scores goes higher in the later innings. The more important question: Should he only pitch in the 9th? Absolutely not... even if that mean someone else pitches the 9th and gets the glorified "save".

1) Leverage is calculated from Win Expectancy. Hard to believe, but alll those hundreds of thousands of games that have been played can give you some pretty exact likelihoods of potential outcomes for any situation. You can disagree, but I will most certainly prefer my best pitcher on the mound in the situations that have the highest likelihood of impacting the chances of a win. 2) I addressed this point by highlighting how the situation could have played out. Simply, runners on base with a 1-run lead is far more dangerous than no runners on base with a lead. 3) Deeper bullpen, of course we all want that. Using Perk/Burt every game... again, no, and you're bastardizing the point to summarize it as such.

... just when I thought we were finally over this!

Fair enough. I think we're eye-to-eye here now. Just please avoid resorting to making fun of my spreadsheets. Some folks get lost in them, but I haven't seen many here that are blind to reality.

Or at least an arm. This is the only argument I could make to support trading for Harang. With Diamond almost back, Gibson on the horizon, Walters, Deduno, and a few others looking for a chance... it's hard to support either way.

Assuming he starts warming up as soon as someone gets on... If the current pitcher gets outs (and hence decreases the leverage), he just has to stay warm a bit longer to pitch the 9th. If anything else goes wrong, he's hopefully warm by then and ready to pitch. Fact is, you have to make through the high leverage situation in the 8th to still have a lead in the 9th.

I agree with you in full that using him vs Davis would be a bad idea. The tie-game toss up argument holds true. Regardless of the hypotheticals, the leverage numbers and even the matchups say Perk probably should have come in as soon as he could warm up once a runner got on base.

Brock, the mistake you're making here is assuming that Perkins should have been brought in to face Davis. Based off the leverage figures, he should have been brought in sooner... before it was a tie game. We can argue this to death, but I'd rather have seen Perkins come in earlier in the 8th to preserve that lead... even if it meant that someone else had to pitch the 9th on either Saturday or Sunday. He ended up pitching Saturday and Sunday, but in reality, it was far more likely he wouldn't have been needed both days.

To illustrate the point: Leverage from Perk's appearance on Wed -- 0.71, 0.55, 0.39 Leverage on Friday, 8th inning -- McLouth AB 3.90, Machado AB 4.51, Markakis AB 4.11, Jones AB 6.39, Davis AB 4.52. Saturday appearance -- 3.53, 2.70, 1.87 Sunday appearance -- 3.53, 2.70, 1.87 Even cherry picking the future shows us that the at-bats on Friday were higher leverage.

If we want to focus so specifically on usage... Perkins had Monday off, Tuesday no game, Wednesday pitched, Thursday warmed up. If we're talking about using pitchers in high-leverage situations, one could very well argue he shouldn't have pitched on Wednesday anyway (ending up winning the game makes it look more important, but it wasn't at the time). Those key at bats in the 8th on Friday were higher leverage than all of his other appearances, including Saturday and Sunday. Bottom line, he should have been pitching there. Using the completely unknown future that happened to turn out to bolster your point in hindsight is exceptionally subjective. We certainly wouldn't want Gardy to manage based on possibilities in the future.

I should have mentioned batting order considerations as well. If we want to use that game situation from Friday, assuming Perkins was capable of pitching, I'd much rather see him face their best hitters with guys already on base and a 1-run lead than pitch the 9th against the bottom half of their lineup with no one on base. And let's be honest here, if Fien/Robertson had gotten out of that jam in 8th, Perk would have been out there in the 9th.

No one is saying use your best BP pitcher every game of the week and this one particular situation isn't even the point to take away. The real point here is that the best bullpen pitcher(s) should be used in the highest leverage situations, with consideration also given to L/R splits. Fangraphs has a neat little leverage index for every game, btw - Orioles » Box Score » Friday, April 05, 2013 | FanGraphs Baseball

C'mon, Brock. This thread is a joke anyway. We've also already managed to end the longest 'games with a home run to start a season' streak!

I'd argue that Duensing has pretty well shown that LOOGY is definitely his best role and that he has in fact shown he isn't very capable of being more. Career OPS against vs LHB: .559 vs RHB: .833

So, I know this guy... who detests the idea of spending $60-$90/month on a marginal cable package but seriously misses live sports, predominantly Twins baseball. He paid the $150 for mlb.tv (plus milb.tv) to fix this and now his wife is mad at him because he gets to see Twins games, but she still has no HGTV. Poor chap!

I couldn't get the online stream to work, but the radio in my car tuned to 96.3 FM was definitely a Twins game.

Early momentum. WE'RE cominnnnnnnnnnn'!