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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
  2. jay
    32 teams... yes. The rest... umm. I’d like: 32 teams, 2 leagues, 4 divisions, 156 game season Interleague 3 x 8 = 24 Intraleague 6 x 8 = 48 Division 12 x 7 = 84 12 team playoff with top 3 of 8 from each division. Division WC - 5 game playoff for 2 and 3 seed hosted by 2 seed, bye for 1 seed Division champ - 5 game playoff hosted by 1 seed League champ - 3/2/2 World Series - 3/2/2
  3. jay
    I get narrowing down the list, but I think there’s a few good possibilities in here: NYY, BOS, HOU, LAD, ATL, CHC, WAS, PHI, NYM, STL, COL
  4. jay
    No way the Twins are taking on all that salary AND giving up a 40-man worthy prospect. https://www.royalsreview.com/2019/7/17/20696903/ian-kennedys-trade-value-contract
  5. jay
    Baseball diehards aren’t going anywhere. Have to look at these changes from the perspective of the casual fan, who I presume actually represent a bigger share of the revenue and are more critical to long-term league success. In that lens (and even in general), I don’t see much negative here.
  6. jay
    Keuchel is an elite groundball pitcher. More than twice as many GBs as Odorizzi last year. The infield defense not being a great fit is worth mentioning.
  7. jay
    26 man rosters and universal DH. No need to have a 3 batter minimum, but do cap rosters at 12 eligible pitchers. Imagine a true 5 man bench again... backup C, 4th OF, IF, and 2 flex spots. Bullpens are filled with flex spots. Why not have that on offense and see what teams come up with?
  8. jay
    Granite and Wade will start in AAA. If Cave doesn’t get rolling in ST, I don’t think they’ll hesitate to go with Austin or Reed out of the gate to balance the roster better and keep a no options guy.
  9. jay
    That position seems pleasingly sarcastic, but unduly negative. Castro can’t hit... and neither can MLB catchers in general. His 92 career wRC+ is solidly above last year’s 84 wRC+ average for catchers. If the goal is above average players across the board, he fits.
  10. jay
    Enjoyed reading. Would love to see a next step of trade analysis. I haven’t quite concluded the FO has been “bad” at trading, but the data seems clear that immediate roster impact has been low — largely by design.
  11. jay
    Here’s a great tool to illustrate that: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-new-way-to-look-at-sample-size/ If it’s too mathy, just check the boxes for OBP and SLG then check the boxes for K% and BB%. You’ll notice a huge difference in their curves illustrating which stats are more reliable than others for the sample size.
  12. jay
    Does Bechtold give pitching a try if the bat doesn’t come to life any better in 2019?
  13. jay
    A little more insight on the methodology would be helpful. I generally think of asset value as essentially the same thing as surplus value or trade value. We can be very confident that Cron wouldn’t cost Gordon though, so now I’m not sure.
  14. jay
    Agree completely. Handing out extensions coming off career years has been a repeated mistake in the past. Hope he does great, but Gibby is at high risk for the same category. So, next question... what would it cost to extend Odo?
  15. jay
    Look at Cave’s L / R splits: 58 (really bad) vs 123 (very good) wRC+. Similar trends in the minors. Cave plays vs R and DH spot rotates with PH ABs too. Austin plays vs L primarily as DH and PHs for Cave, Kepler or Castro late. Austin + Cave as one lineup spot at their career 123 wRC+ with the platoon advantage is equivalent to a top 50 bat. Obviously uses roster space, but that sounds like a productive lineup spot.
  16. jay
    If the choice is Adrianza and Aybar or Adrianza and Vargas as the last two bench pieces, I'll take Vargas. With Mauer and Morrison both in essentially full time roles, having an extra bat on the bench makes more sense to me than a 2nd utility player. I'd probably feel the same way if Escobar was the primary utility and the choice was Adrianza or Vargas -- give me the bat.
  17. jay
    Having heard Glen Perkins talk about analytics, I had always pictured him in a role like Bannister's some day. I'm sure I wasn't the only one? Didn't the Twins have another pitcher who was known for being into the analytics? I'm drawing a blank...
  18. jay
    That's certainly not what my post said. It actually seems harder to wrap my head around the intensity of vitriol over sticking a guy in RF. The Sano move seems to be most commonly criticized based on his size and lack of experience. The Santana example, with the added context of the World Series, is just another to show that maybe it wasn't that big of a deal. Not that it was a "great idea".
  19. jay
    And please don't say "but it's just 2 games". If it's okay for a HoF manager and widely praised front office to let Carlos Santana start ANY games in the OF with zero experience during the World Series, it can't be that bad to give a younger player with more athleticism months to practice and give it a try.
  20. jay
    For being such a stupid, dumb move... how does it compare to starting Carlos Santana in LF during the WORLD SERIES when he has never started a game in the OF before? Never mind a full offseason and spring training to get ready. If Santana is 5'11", 210 as listed, then I'd be listed at something like 5'11", 105. It didn't work out, but it wasn't nearly as terrible of a move as many here try to make it out to be...
  21. jay
    These names and even parts of the commentary look a lot Mike Axisa's from earlier today... http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/despite-poor-2016-the-twins-gm-is-a-desirable-job-and-here-are-some-candidates/amp/ Dan Kantrovitz and Chaim Bloom are two more names worth looking at.
  22. jay
    The 31:2 K:BB ratio was the clincher for me. Impressive!
  23. jay
    That first paragraph is true. The second one is purely based on perception. It'd be great to see some comprehensive, long term math to back up such a claim.
  24. jay
    2 weeks is nothing. 2+ months of raking AND an improved BB rate? Bring him back.
  25. jay
    Injury insurance, but not performance insurance. Duping seems like a strong term to me. The player stocks are highly risky and many will decline in value, but it only takes one guy being decent enough through his arb years to be just a decent free agent and land a big contract for the stock to pay off at a high multiple. Look at this year's free agent class and it's easy to envision how even a guy like Duffey could pay off. Mike Leake got 5/$80M. J.A. Happ got 3/$36M.
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