Jim H

The problem with this metric is that you are giving the catcher credit for something he has no control over. First of all, on close pitches you can't sure that Pitch f/x is any more accurate than the umpire. Camera angles and the inability of Pitch f/x to show the depth of the plate mean that often the umpire could be right and Pitch f/x could be wrong. 2nd, the umpire usualy doesn't see the "framing of the pitches" he is focused on where/if the ball crosses the plate not where the ball is caught. When an umpire misses a call it can be for a variety of reasons. Maybe the catcher blocked the umpires view, maybe the umpire was expecting the pitch to move different than it did, maybe because the pitcher is getting credit for an extra inch because his control has been so good, maybe he missed it because he is human. The idea that a catcher can steal enough pitches for his pitcher to save 50 runs in 80 games isn't just an exaggeration, it is an insult to umpires. They aren't so bad at their jobs that how a catcher catches the ball is going to have much of an effect. I also find it strange that it ok to give exaggerated credit for Molina being a good catcher, but not to Butera.

"If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter" Quote from above article. I used to think most fans underrated defense. Some of these new "metrics" distort it. You really think that how a catcher catches the ball can save his team 50 runs in 80 games? I suspect that most good umps don't even see where the catcher catches the ball. They are focused on the strike zone above the plate. One of the problems with that nice little box that most TV broadcasts use to show whether a ball or a strike, is that it doesn't show the depth of the strike zone. All of this isn't to say that Doumit is a good catcher. He is not. Molina is a lot more valuable than his offensive numbers suggest. Just like Butera is. But saying that Molina won 7 more games than Doumit by how he frames pitches-I don't think that is remotely true.

Trades for Twins could be a bit tricky. While "everyone" is available, if the Twins really want to contend next year, trading more than one or so from the current core will be difficult. There is no one from the farm that is likely to be ready at the beginning of the year and probably can't be relied on for a year or so, maybe. Trading young assets that could be impact players means you better get someone darn good. Look at all the complaining about trading Ramos even though he can't stay healthy and has yet to prove that he can either hit or defend well enough to be a big league regular. What the Twins really need is for someone to really want one of their "surplus" outfielders. Probably Span, and hopefully that can return a solid, above average starter. I expect you are largely right, the Twins will have to be willing to take on significant salary to improve the starting pitching enough to give them a good chance to be contenders in 2012.

You make some good points, although I have never understood the fascination with Edwin Jackson. who has been a back of the rotation starter his entire career. He may have the stuff and the "potential" to be a top of the rotation starter but he has never pitched to that level consistently. I suspect the Twins will have to sign a free agent to a multi year contract, although I think most bloggers won't be pleased with their choice. They will probably acquire another pitcher with a multi year committment through trade as well. I am not sure that is a real good idea, but largely they have no real choice. I really expect the Twins to have up to 4 starters with at least some major league experience added to their roster or signed to a minor league contract by Feb. 1. As far as your point about the Twins minor league system, there is at least some chance that there could be some other starters from the Twins system knocking on the door to the majors within a year or 2. Wimmers and Salcedo are 2 candidates and their are a couple of guys from the last 2 drafts who could move quickly if they adapt well to being starters. Even a guy like Bromberg and maybe a couple of others who have been around for awhile still have some chance of being useful major league starters. Personally, I think, given a bit of good health, their is more starter talent in the Twins system than most people think.

No Morneau? Dozier should at least be part of the depth. Capps may be released but I am not so sure that will happen either. I would also add Hicks in somewhere. While he likely won't make the team out of spring training, the Twins will certainly take a close look at him and he could be one of the first OF's called up if need calls. I won't comment on Slama being ranked 3, but until he actually pitches in the majors again, well you know.

If you are building for 2014, you are likely leaving some names out of the discussion. Certainly Hicks should be in the conversation, perhaps 3-4 others currently at AA and perhaps some guys at Single-A like Michael. I also agree with some of what you say, though I don't know that I consider contending in 2013 and building for the future, mutually exclusively. It is likely quite possible to do both. The problem with trading or getting rid of everyone who is unlikely to contribute in 2014 or beyond is you may very well force kids on to the major league roster who don't belong there. I saw too much of that in the 90's. There was little in that, that would make me think that unready players develop faster by being overmatched at the major league level. The other problem with trading all your tradeable players who aren't a definite part of the future, is that most of them aren't really all that tradeable. Look at the Boston deal, unless the players to be named are special, Boston didn't get much and gave up $11 million besides.

I wouldn't mind seeing Slama up this September but some of you conspiracy theorists who claim to follow the minors very closely, you realize that Slama has been hurt for large portions of the last 2(this year and 20ll) seasons? Also when he has been healthy and effective, there has been little immediate need for his skills. In addition to that, he appears to be largely a one inning reliever(based on how he has been used in the minors and the fact he throws a lot of pitches in each appearance). That would tend to limit his opportunities at the big league level. For example in the latest call up the Twins brought up Waltrip because he is more of a multi-inning type reliever. Slama will likely need to used as a one inning specialist or a guy to get righthanders out in the 6th-7th or 8th innings. Every team in baseball had a chance to claim Slama when he was removed from the 40 man roster. That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve an opportunity, but it does mean he isn't a prized prospect. Slama will likely get another opportunity to pitch in the majors, perhaps with the Twins, perhaps not. Some marginal guys do succeed in the majors and I hope Slama is one them, but I do not think there is some sort of goofy conspiracy by Twins brass to kkep him out of the majors.

I really do expect the Twins to upgrade the pitching staff next year. How they do it, trade or FA signing I don't know. I have no clue either who they might target. Stilll, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of guys. I don't expect Pavano back, and Baker is kind of iffy. He won't likely be ready at the beginning of the year and who knows what it will cost to sign him. They won't try very hard to go after Liriano either if he is a free agent. Blackburn will be back, I think. I don't know that, that is a bad thing. He is not that expensive and he has certainly contributed as much as Baker or Liriano, when healthy. Diamond will be in the rotation, anyone else in the system is speculation at this point. I think Hendriks could be good. Gibson, they will have to be careful with. Everyone else is likely a step below Blackburn. I have hopes for Bromberg but he kind of went backwards this year. Hermsen is probably going to be pretty good, but I doubt if he will be quite ready next year.

Even if Willingham is not being "shopped", it doesn't mean the Twins won't listen to offers for him. Your points are true enough, but there is not obvious replacement in system for his bat. Parmalee, Benson, Arcia, and even Hicks may be ready pretty soon. But if righthanded power is important to you, none of these guys will replace Willingham.

I suppose it is possible. Seems unlikely though. He has been inconsistent this year, which may mean he isn't quite ready to move up. It appears New Britian is in a pennant race, another reason to leave him there. Unless Span or Revere were traded before the trade deadline, then maybe the Twins might bring Hicks up for a look see. It would more likely be Benson or Parmalee, I would think.

This looks and sounds like cherry picking to prove a point. Many of the pitchers on this list had very good years for the Twins, having injury plagued years that skewed their overall numbers, or like LaTroy found their roles with the Twins after struggling as young pitchers. I also note that you don't mention any pitchers who pitched worse after they left or pitched better for the Twins than they did previously for anyone else. I suspect because pitchers are so inconsistent throughout their careers, you could do this kind of thing to just about any team.

If you are going with a 3rd catcher, and I doubt if that it is decided yet, why wouldn't you go with Butera? The 3rd catcher is unlikely to get 10 AB's a month. If something happens to Mauer or Doumit, than bring up Towles from Rochester, where he has been getting consistent AB's and might be ready to contribute a little offensively. I doubt if Hughes is any kind of lock. It might come down to whether you want a left hand hitter on the bench or a right hand hitter. The only thing Hughes can do that Burroughs cannot is play 2nd. At least Burroughs has shown in the past he can hit major league pitching. Do you really think Alex Burnett is guaranteed a spot in the bullpen? He may have a leg up, but I believe he has an option left, so there could easily be reasons to start him at AAA.

A number of bloggers and commenters have suggested Hughes is a near lock to make the Twins. I have wondered about that, and maybe Ryan is saying that Hughes is not. He has appeared to me to be more of a backup than any kind of future regular. He is not that gifted defensively. I guess that he needs to be a better fit than his competition to make the Twins this spring, despite the lack of options.

I agree about Benson, he looked the same last September. It surprises me a bit since he generally hit better than Parmelee as they moved up the minors together. Parmelee looks more together at the plate than Benson. I suppose Benson is working on things in batting practice and maybe taking too many thoughts up to his AB's.

Most baseball fans who are more than casual fans, appreciate stats. I certainly do. But that doesn't mean that stats can't be interpreted in different ways or even shaped to fit your point. Using a single stat to "prove" something is almost always misleading. I really like stats like WHIP and OPS but like all rate stats they hardly tell you the whole story. Some of the newer "stats" like UZR are dangerous in the hands of people who don't really understand stats to begin with. Sometime I will would like to write about UZR, since I am not really sure it measures anything tangible about fielding. Still stats like WAR are worse, because nobody knows what they contain, and yet they are a single number that people use to compare the value of different players. Imagine a single number that can tell you to the relative value of a center fielder with 600 ABs and long reliever with 60 innings.