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Han Joelo

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Everything posted by Han Joelo

  1. Han Joelo
    I'll go with the narrative that we just found out how valuable DeLeon is, rather than Dozier. The Dodgers are probably ecstatic someone bought there buffed out prospect. They are good--they got maximum value out of him. Turns out max value was Forsythe, not Dozier. Will Falvey look better when those other Dodger prospects turn out better than DeLeon? I.E. He was correct in holding out? Anyway, 5000 comments later, I'm mercifully free of this nonsense.
  2. Han Joelo
    I like Nick's perspective. This Dozier drama has been an interesting case study in optimism vs. pessimism. There's some of both on both sides, for sure, but the tenor of the "trade Dozier for whatever the Dodgers offered" comments tends to skew towards pessimism. Unless you're extremely optimistic about Deleon. But hey, I was once pretty optimistic about Alex Meyer, Delois Guerra, and Boof Bonser. And Jose Berrios. Wait, maybe I'm the pessimist!
  3. Han Joelo
    By keeping Dozier, the Twins will avoid an historic 106 loss season, which will keep that stink off the young core. Good non-move.
  4. Han Joelo
    Thanks, Seth. As my oldest nephew is almost 19, I try to imagine what it would be like if he got a job in Australia for six months out of the year.
  5. Han Joelo
    There are over 2000 comments that parse the relative merits of Dozier for Deleon + Alvarez (or not). Maybe this thread can stay a bit more creative? I am pretty sure I know how everybody feels about THAT deal at this point.
  6. Han Joelo
    Deleon seems like a slightly better (maybe) less durable version of Berrios. To me, hope for the future rests as much (more) on Berrios and Romero (or Thorpe) being as good as we want Deleon and Alvarez to be. I am fine with stats and all, but these projections of Deleon putting up top ten numbers don't jibe with him being available at all, in which case he must be damaged goods in some way. Reminds me of the Span trade in that regard.
  7. Han Joelo
    Man, the inferiority complex is really rearing its head again. Minnesota: where the players are average (and bound to regress) and the management is a bunch of clumsy rubes. If Dozier is our only hope for ever possibly finding competitive pitching, I'm glad management is trying to maximize their "asset."
  8. Han Joelo
    I think my expectations for Buxton are fairly tempered right now, but my hopes for him (and the team) are sky high.
  9. Han Joelo
    I would withhold the plus from Doziers grade due to his and the team's soul crushing start.
  10. Han Joelo
    Oh kripes. It took me nearly 1000 comments before I could get Walter Buehlers name right. Now I have to figure out how to pretend like I know who a bunch of new guys are. Maybe the Dodgers put these rumors out--"see, he's only worth Kolton Wong to the Cards. You really should take our offer, or some of your fans won't forget and they'll mention it in every post on forums for years to come."
  11. Han Joelo
    Deolis Guerra. Seems like he had a helluva change up too. Not comparing him to De Leon, exactly. But when you look at those Fangraphs, um, graphs of future value, and you see that one that says 30% chance of being a 1-5 WAR player, just look at Guerra's career to see what that might look like.
  12. Han Joelo
    Cool story. Makes me think of a cousin of mine who played college baseball. I think he even got a finance degree as well, although he was able to get back into coaching. I wonder if my cousin was ever a phone call away from being a pro. Good stuff as always, Seth.
  13. Han Joelo
    That Baseball Weekly I alluded to featured the likes of Garza, Slowey, Blackburn maybe, Perkins, Crain, and Durbin, even Duensing. Different days and different ways to evaluate prospects to be sure. I guess for many, me included, if the outcome for the current group was the same as that one, it would be disappointing, if realistic. But then a Liriano comes out of nowhere...
  14. Han Joelo
    I will share your tempered enthusiasm, Nick. This is the best looking bunch of pitching prospects the Twins have had since the days I got all of my prospect information from the USA Today Baseball Weekly. Still smarting about J.D. "The Real Deal" Durbin, though. Metaphor for the day: Pitching prospects are like Nerf Darts in a holiday shootout with your family. Try to stockpile as many as you can, and start shooting. Maybe one of them will stick to the window and you'll find it again. Actually, you could probably take six nerf darts, paint them white, write the names of these four guys plus the two Dodgers, go outside and shoot them into the snow, and then go look for them. The one you find has as good a chance of being "the one" as anything we can predict. Meanwhile, Felix Jorge will have a long and uneventful career...
  15. Han Joelo
    Great interview. I like this kid. I'm going to keep my eye on this one.
  16. Han Joelo
    Fixed that for you.
  17. Han Joelo
    What latitude do you have to be at before the whole longest night deal becomes moot? The longest day I ever had lasted from October 30th to February 8th, at the South Pole. The Yankees won the WS, Ravens the Super Bowl, and Bush the White House. Seemed like that day would never end. Had time to run around the world three times, even.
  18. Han Joelo
    Throwing darts blindfolded isn't random, at least in my analogy -- the direction of the dartboard is known. And I agree with you -- in each successive round, the dartboard gets smaller.
  19. Han Joelo
    One more thing: The Nationals just signed Jacob Turner to a minor league deal. 9th overall pick in 2009. Check out the list from that year: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=2009&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg I think the best thing about that list isn't about all the teams that passed on Trout, it is the fact that the Diamondbacks, (who seem to rate very highly on Seth's data) had two consecutive picks, and chose Bobby Borchering (???) ahead of A.J. Pollock. So if they hadn't of had that extra pick... Throwing darts blindfolded.
  20. Han Joelo
    What I think about is how those picks affect the careers of not just the Scouting Directors, but the area scouts. I heard an interview with the scout who stuck his neck out to get Minaya or whomever to pick Daniel Murphy in the later rounds. He really believed in Murphy, despite a lack of measurables, and had to "pick his battle" in the war room. Imagine sitting there, Joe Dirtbag Scout, with your cigar and notebook (or your casual dress shirt and laptop) and pretty much putting your reputation and maybe livelihood on the line for some 17 year old kid. "You're SURE this kid is worth a fifth round pick, Joe? I've got a kid from Dartmouth mowing my lawn who showed me some fancy numbers that say I should take this other guy. You better be right."
  21. Han Joelo
    Interesting look. Thanks, Seth. Just one piece of the puzzle, of course, and there is just a lot of noise to wade through, which then leads to all sorts of ways to perceive this. I don't really care how the Twins ultimately rate, at least I'm not going to parse whether they were "Average" or "Slightly Below Average." Way too much luck involved. I'd have to see the actual draft boards of all those teams to make a judgment -- I.e would the Mariners have taken Hultzen over Cole if the picks were flopped? Where did all of those teams that picked right after the Twins have Gordon on their boards? Like Seth points out, according to the revered Klaw, the Michael pick was a 15 pick steal. I'd say about the only pick you could say "great choice" is the Correa over Buxton pick, and the jury is still out on that one.
  22. Han Joelo
    RE: Trading Dwozier I imagine this delay is a case of new kids at the table Falvey and Levine needing to "establish themselves with authority" rather than doing something like this right out of the gate: https://youtu.be/gORMNmZgE3E (How do you embed the whole video rather than the link?)
  23. Han Joelo
    Re: Trading Dwoizier As new kids on the block, I would hope that a lot of this is just Falvine "establishing their presence with authority," rather than like this: https://youtu.be/gORMNmZgE3E <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gORMNmZgE3E" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
  24. Han Joelo
    So sad to hear this. Condolences.
  25. Han Joelo
    I like to think Haley is a real diamond in the rough, a potential Kuechel in the making. It is wishful thinking, yes, but I still like it.
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