stringer bell

I should hope so.

Hallelujah!

Over the past few years the Twins have made several roster moves which I would charitably call "puzzling". The addition of Matt Guerrier when the club needed multiple outfielders, the carrying of alternately three catchers or thirteen pitchers, the recall of Polanco from Single A, the recalls of Kris Johnson and Logan Darnell to start games when acknowledged better prospects are in Triple A are just some examples. I suggest that many of these decisions are based on a flawed 40-man roster. Some candidates worthy of promotion are not on the expanded roster, too many minor leaguers on the 40-man are not worthy of being in the majors, and too many marginal players on the active roster are frozen there because they can't be optioned to the minors. Several players who may have been optioned at one point can't be because they would have to be DFAed, and if they cleared they would have the option to declare free agency. Anthony Swarzak, Samuel Deduno, Chris Parmelee and Eduardo Escobar are all out of options. Escobar has cemented his status as a major leaguer and Parmelee may have, but it would have been in the Twins' best interests to demote either or both of the pitchers at some point this season. That is why next year, I am hoping one or both of pitchers is traded, non-tendered or released so that a player with flexibility (for example Yohan Pino) could take their place. The Twins were so thin in outfield depth that they were forced to use several infielders in the outfield this year. They have lost centerfield depth because the 40-man was filled and they attempted to designate players (Alex Presley, Darrin Mastroianni, Kenny Wilson) off either the active roster or 40-man. I respect Terry Ryan's ability to judge talent and I expect the next twelve months will be better in respect to roster issues than the past year has been. However, it cripples a team to have so little roster flexibility and the Twins need to do better.

No Colabello. We all know he slumped after his fine April. His stats since his recall have been bad, as well (not Florimonian, but still bad). I see Nuñez as a keeper. Here's my list: C: Suzuki, Pinto, Chris Gimenez 1B: Mauer, (Parmelee, Vargas) 2B: Dozier (Escobar) 3B: Plouffe, Nuñez (Escobar) SS: Escobar (Nuñez, Santana) LF: Parmelee (Nuñez, Schaefer, Gimenez) CF: Santana, Schaefer RF: Arcia (Nuñez, Parmelee, Gimenez) DH: Vargas (Mauer, Pinto) SP: Gibson, Hughes, May, Milone, Nolasco RP: Pino, Pelfrey, Duensing, Oliveros, Pryor, Thielbar, Perkins

He'll do better than that line. Remember--all that foul territory!

Seldom is a competition on purely equal footing. This is a case in point. May and Meyer are both 24-yo RH pitchers acquired for Twins' center fielders. Yet, there are differences that make May's promotion the easy call and delay Meyer, possibly until next year. 1) Meyer has been on a pitch and innings limit. The boundaries aren't exact, but Meyer will likely be shut down while May should be good to go through September. 2) Meyer is not on the 40-man roster and the 40-man is full. While the loss would only be something like Pedro Florimon, the Twins are reluctant to add Meyer this late in the year and perhaps burn an option on him, as well. I'd love to see the 6'9" kid pitch for the Twins this year, but I'm happy that May will be getting his shot, with Milone waiting in the wings.

Circumstances make Meyer a long shot to pitch with the Twins this year. Too bad, because it probably will hurt his chances to make the club out of Spring Training. Of course, a couple weeks in Rochester will give the team control for another year. Meyer should be good to go 180 or more innings next year. I hope at least 90% of them are for the Twins.

I'd compare him to Escobar. I think both are big leaguers who can start on a marginal to bad team, but neither are stars. If either Parmelee or Escobar is a starter in 2015, it will be their positions that we fans will be looking for replacements.

Good for Hicks. He really needs the AAA time. I still am of the opinion that his bat will never play as a corner outfielder, but I have been wrong before. He's been swinging well at New Britain from both sides of the plate.

Actual talent in CF: The Twins have let go of Presley and Mastroianni, two guys that would qualify as 4th OF, who could cover center. They acquired and just recently traded Sam Fuld, another 4th OF, who did well for the Twins and netted them a guy who figures to get at least 50 starts for the Twins in the duration of his contract. They've suffered through the frustration of Aaron Hicks and seen one other prospect (Rosario) take a step back after serving a 50-game suspension. Their top overall prospect is a CF, but has missed over half a season with wrist injuries. That's quite a drain at one position. The answer has been converting a shortstop on the fly and now acquiring Schafer.

I read that Darnell had been optioned, not a huge surprise. That creates room for Schafer for now. I would presume they could recall Milone to start sometime next week. They would probably have to send out a pitcher. Of course, when Mauer returns that is another issue.

Overall, I like the move. Schafer has one major league skill for sure--he can steal bases. Even with bad instincts, he has to cover more ground than the Twins' regulars in left and right. If Schafer could manage to get on base enough, he could really help the team in a part-time role. If not, backup CF, PR and occasional corner defensive replacement.

Souhan has a comment on the trade taking a diametrically opposite view to me about Pinto. I hope he's wrong and I'm right. I just don't see Suzuki sustaining what he is doing offensively.

I continue to believe that Byron Buxton will be the Twins center fielder by June 15. He is the real thing. He's healthy and will play in AA and then the AFL. Actually, I won't be surprised if the OF isn't very mobile on the corners next year, but they should have a much better staff and a better offense.

I agree that the combo of "pitch to contact" pitchers combined with a team that has range-challenged corner infielders and a lot of flux in center field isn't fair to the pitchers and not a formula for winning baseball. I always look at total runs allowed versus innings pitched as a fairer version of "runs suppressed" than team ERA. Pitching and defense are intertwined. The combination for the Twins hasn't been great in the last four years. Both better pitching and better, more athletic defenders will improve the team statistically and in the standings.

Pinto is a catcher. I doubt his bat plays as a DH. I think the angst over Pinto's defense is overblown. The scouting report coming in to the season was that Pinto has a good bat, needs work on his receiving skills, but had a good arm and is a hard worker. Well, he got into a funk defensively. Haven't we seen other young players come up and look bad? IMHO, what is wrong with Pinto can be fixed and he presents assets of being a good hitter with plus power. I disagree with the comment above about him DHing too often. He plays every day and is the DH on occasion, nothing wrong with that. From what I've seen, Pinto hasn't presided over a bunch of bad pitching.

486 PAs is a high number for a catcher. I sincerely hope that he doesn't get that number of PAs in 2016.

I saw it 100 times about Suzuki--"sign him or trade him"--well they signed him. Getting Milone for Fuld is a win even if Milone only performs like a fifth starter. Now, why in the world have the Twins not submitted their lineup? Are they waiting for Vargas to get to the park? Have they traded someone else (Correia, Hammer) or does someone have an injury and Gardenhire doesn't know if he can go?

I vote for just about everyone under 30 on the Twins, plus top prospects. That is plenty of guys to keep me interested. Let's hope there are a couple of transactions in the next couple of days.

Buxton is going to the AFL, I sincerely doubt he will see the big leagues this fall no matter what he does. I know Polanco has a handful of ABs, but his promotion was out of necessity and convenience. I think he is at least two years away from getting a real audition to stay in the majors. I would like to see Meyer and May this week--I really don't think there is any service time issue whatsoever. They may be better served pitching for and in the playoffs for Rochester. I understand that Meyer will likely be shut down at some point, so I guess if he doesn't get to Minnesota in the next couple weeks, he probably won't make it until next year.

Download attachment: evaluation.jpg The Twins have played the fewest games in the AL (along with the White Sox) and after 66 games they are about what I thought they would be at this point: fourth in their division and are within sight of everyone but Detroit. Big picture: fine with me. I want to see this team sell at the trade deadline, but I don't want them to be dreadful. What is not fine with me is that the players I want the Twins to sell just aren't performing that well.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Ryan Doumit (.288/.405/.692), Justin Morneau (.341/.379/.720) and Josh Willingham (.352/.411/.763) are all well below last year's results which implies their value has also diminished. It has been discussed all over Twins Daily, but Morneau's lack of power has lowered his OPS from last year, even though his BA is up. On the pitching side, I think the Twins need to hold on to whatever effective arms they have. Perkins has done well and has a nice team-friendly contract. Despite a couple hiccups lately, Burton is a good late-inning arm. I suppose the club could deal one of those guys while they have good value. Starters Correia and Pelfrey might have some value. Correia has been the Twins most consistent starter but he epitomizes the mostly discredited "Pitch to Contact" approach and his innings could go to somebody currently toiling in Rochester. If the Twins can get anything of value for him, I say sell. Pelfrey, on the other hand, seems to be getting stronger. He's throwing harder, getting more Ks, and pitching deeper into games. Perhaps the Twins could sign him for another year at a bargain rate rather than selling and seeing him thrive for someone else. There are several players whose box scores I check no matter what. Mostly I'm looking at players who can help the Twins in the next year or two. That includes some on the major league roster and some in the minors. Also included: any left-hander who can get batters out - there never are enough lefties! Here's a list of possible keepers, with a thumbnail of their seasons so far and the reasoning why they might stick around: Chris Parmelee--could/should be Morneau's successor at first base. Young enough to be a key player when the next wave arrives. Parm is hitting .223 with a .648 OPS. He failed to secure a position last year and is on his way to ceding a spot in the Twins future. The bright spot has been surprisingly good defense in right field. He might be slotted as a bench player (RF/1B/DH) despite his poor hitting. Brian Dozier--for a franchise with so few good middle infielder options, having a potentially capable middle infielder is important. Dozier had a good game today and currently is hitting .230 with a .624 OPS. Dozier has fielded his new position surprisingly well, but he has to hit more to secure a spot for 2014 and beyond. Dozier's June numbers are encouraging: a .297 BA and an OPS over .800.Pedro Florimon--he is important for the same reasons as Dozier. The bar for Florimon was set very low going into the season and he hit surprisingly well early on. His overall offensive numbers mirror Dozier's--.227 BA with a .632 OPS, but June has not been kind to Florimon. For June, entering today's play, he's hitting .119 with a puny .388 OPS. His defense has slipped as well, so that I don't think Pedro is guaranteed anything more than continued play into next month.Finally on, Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe has had injury issues, but his numbers are ....well, good! Plouffe has an obvious successor playing in the Twins' system, but if he can hit to an .800 OPS, he'll have a job with the Twins, or with someone else. Plouffe has the necessary skills to be a decent 3B and enough hitting prowess to be a regular somewhere in the Twins' lineup. Good health, Trevor! In the Twins' top two minor league teams, I watch the catchers because I believe it is in the Twins' best interest to have Joe Mauer catch less. Very encouraging numbers from Josmil Pinto give me hope the Twins can have a young receiver splitting time with Mauer behind the plate. Pinto's offensive numbers at New Britain are outstanding: .321 BA and .957 OPS and reports have him being capable as a defender. "Utility catchers" Chris Herrmann and Dan Rohlfing look like guys who could fill a third catcher role, play in the outfield and perhaps field an infield corner. Herrmann did very well for the Twins in 16 plate appearances and Rohlfing has been outstanding as a C/OF for the Red Wings after putting up OK numbers in New Britain. Beyond the catchers, I look at AA-New Britain shortstop Danny Santana, who is hitting a low-power low-OBP .280 and has 20 errors at shortstop. Daniel Ortiz, who was a consistent performer early, has also slipped a bit. He's a corner outfielder with a .769 OPS. Finally, right-handed reliever Michael Tonkin has impressed. He started in New Britain, and has moved to Rochester. He has a good WHIP, opponent's BA and strikes out more than one per inning. I think Tonkin will fit in as a late inning option for the Twins as soon as this year. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: milestone_in_design.jpg The Minesota Twins have hit the four-week milestone and are above .500 at 11-10. Considering the pessimism going into the season, Twins Territory should be happy with the results. Some raw numbers: Run differential is -1. Team ERA is 3.92, the Twins have scored 88 runs despite only 14 homers and a league-worst slugging percentage. They are 5-2 in one-run games and have allowed only 11 homers, second best in the AL. Many of these stats can't be sustained - they will allow more homers and win fewer close games - but the team is improved. The Twins also haven't gotten much from several players - Aaron Hicks is off to a historically bad start to a career. Justin Morneau, Trevor Plouffe, Ryan Doumit, and Chris Parmelee (normally the fourth through the seventh spot hitters) have combined for only 4 homers and 24 RBI in 294 plate appearances. Pitchers Vance Worley and Scott Pelfrey have been much more bad than good in their starting turns. Eduardo Escobar and Kevin Correia have far exceeded expectations, but they are really the only ones who are performing better than one might have expected. The defense has been inconsistent, highlighted by shortstop Pedro Florimon. However, there have been many highlight defensive plays as well. Two players in new positions - Parmelee and Dozier - have been good fits in their new spots. I think the club is still a ways away from truly contending. The top end of the rotation is suspect, the hitting is inconsistent, and these have combined to put pressure on a pretty good bullpen. The upcoming road trip, with series against the Tigers, Indians and Red Sox, will probably tell a lot about the present for the Twins. In looking at minor league performance and players returning from injury, it appears that the back end of the rotation has many candidates for few spots. Current #4 starter, Pelfrey, hasn't had a quality start and has had two lousy outings and two okay starts, having not gotten past the sixth inning. Pedro Hernandez, the nominal #5, pitched only 5 innings today, but was effective. There are no fewer than four candidates - Kyle Gibson, Liam Hendriks, PJ Walters and Sam Deduno - for starting spots and at some point Rich Harden could also be considered for a spot. Add the two off-season trade acquisitions in AA (Alex Meyer and Trevor May) and that is quite a logjam of potential starters. In the bullpen, Tim Wood and Rafael Perez are nearing health with a full bullpen and 40-man roster. Tyler Roberton has also pitched well at Rochester, so there could soon be too many okay options for too few spots there. In the outfield and at first base, the Twins have service time considerations with rookies Hicks and Oswlado Arcia. When Darin Mastroianni returns from the disabled list, one of those two might be sent down to Rochester. There is a chance that Parmelee could be sent down instead, but I think the Twins have seen enough of Parm raking at Rochester. The outfield/first base decision could be complicated by somebody catching fire at Rochester. Colabello has been outstanding so far and onetime top prospect Joe Benson has put together a few good games. Another week in the minors would delay 21-year-old Arcia's free agency for another year. Hicks would need to be sent down for three weeks to delay free agency. As with most roster decisions, it probably doesn't make any sense to decide until the Twins have to. Injuries and ineffectiveness usually help make the decision easier. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Escobar_Eduardo_Shortstop_US_720.jpg Right now, the Twins have a wealth of shortstop candidates. Conventional wisdom is that shortstops aren't platooned because working with the keystone partner is so important. Here is a short tutorial of the shortstop options and my best guess as to what will happen. I invite anyone else to comment and offer his opinion. Eduardo Escobar Escobar is starting most games right now and why not? He's hitting over .340 and he's pretty good in the field. News flash: he won't hit .340 and he's not going to get 50 doubles. When his bat cools, we'll see how manager Ron Gardenhire feels about playing him every day. For whatever reason, Escobar has been tabbed as a utility guy and he is a versatile player. Defensively, Escobar is a solid shortstop with good hands and a strong arm. He doesn't have great range. He has earned this shot and I think there's a chance he may succeed. Regardless, he has proven he is a capable utility player. Danny Santana Sanatana has the range Escobar lacks - it's the routine plays that are a challenge. Since his promotion, Santana has played short and center field and demonstrated his blazing speed and strong arm. So far, he has also hit the ball. Santana isn't going to hit .400 any more than Escobar will hit .340. In fact, if he gets a couple hundred plate appearances, it is doubtful he will be above average as a hitter, or at least that's what his minor league record suggests. In his very short trial with the Twins, he hasn't shown he's ready to be a regular major leaguer, but he also has shown he has major league tools. A trip back to Rochester is nearly certain. Maybe he can develop into a big league regular with quite a bit more sizzle than Escobar offers. Eduardo Nuñez He is the most established hitter of the group, but that isn't saying much. He currently has taken on the utility role that Escobar vacated. If Escobar slumps, I wouldn't be surprised if Nuñez gets a shot to prove that his poor defensive rep is overstated. I can't see Gardy going with one of the worst defensive shortstops for long, but then again we saw Plouffe and Nishi playing the position. Pedro Florimon The manager is reportedly already missing his magic glove, but Florimon just didn't hit at all this year, either with the Twins or not at AAA. (He has also already committed five errors in Rochester. Those minor league fields must be rough!) Florimon is 27 years old, and we likely saw his peak as a hitter in the first half of last year and that was barely passable. He needs to put up some kind of offense to justify his recall. Down the road there are others but they are years away. I hope someone separates himself. Some are predicting the Twins will draft a shortstop with their high first round pick. Maybe that will be the solution to the shortstop problem. Click here to view the article

Duensing is a nice bullpen piece. Any team short on left handers arms could be interested in his services. He has shown to be durable and versatile, so that would up his value a bit more than the raw numbers.

Brock, I tried to comment on the "Welcome to the new Twins Daily" article last night and couldn't. Now that I am able to comment I do have several questions: First, I went to the blog section and received an error message that I don't have permission to view the blogs. I blog occasionally and I am an active poster, so sure I want permission, please inform me how that is done. Secondly, I couldn't "like" posts last night. I tested by liking a post this morning and it worked, but I don't know if I have a limited number of "likes" per day. Third, I noticed that many people have changed their "Member Title" and tried to do so, but I couldn't edit that page. Finally, when I log on to Twins Daily through my favorite places, it goes to Articles and issues an error message of "We can't find that!", which is solved by going to Forums, but it is another small annoyance. You can send me a PM if you please or just respond. The new improved site is very attractive and I'm sure it took too many hours to count. Your work is much appreciated. Thank you for all you do!