stringer bell

Concur. You don't look old enough. Then again, any self-respecting gentleman would yield his seat to a woman.

Nice job RiverBrian. Enjoy the game on Saturday. BTW, will you be a regular when the Tigers host the Twins?

I think Meyer will get his feet wet in a mop-up role. Once he is past the nerves of throwing his first pitch, getting his first strikeout etc., the role is undetermined. It would be great if Meyer shows enough to join Fien, Boyer and Perkins at the back end of the bullpen. I doubt that will happen, but time will tell.

Good points RB. I am still of the opinion that to improve their LH bullpen problems they will need to go outside the organization.

Great thread with a variety of opinions. Rather than respond to all of the posts, I'll offer up my thoughts on some of the comments made. 1) Unless he retires early, the Twins have a first baseman in Mauer. He's been somewhere between disappointing and awful the last two years. I have some hope that he will regress to his mean, but I doubt he'll ever be an All-Star again. 2) Kepler outhit Rosario (narrowly) in the AFL. He has outhit everyone (OPS) at AA. I recall watching him, Buxton and Sano taking BP three springs ago and the ball sounded different when those three hit the ball than when other prospects hit it. He's got fine speed and a good frame. I believe the power will come, but he could hit like Mauer with good OBP and a lot of extra base hits, not homers. 3) The Twins need LH power and Arcia provides that commodity more than any OF candidate. I don't think he is hopeless as an outfielder, but he has a long way to go to be adequate. He definitely needs another chance, but this year that would probably be at DH. Maybe that will be his role going forward, but the team could live with him on a corner with two plus outfielders filling out the outfield. If the Twins think he's a square peg in a round hole, he should have built some value to be traded. 4) Walker reminds me of Michael Restovich. Great power, fine speed, some holes in his swing. He's progressed and is having a fine year in AA. To me, he is behind Kepler as a prospect because he's older, right handed and hasn't played much besides the corner oufield. 5) Hicks hasn't shown me that he can hit in the majors. He might get another chance if Buxton is sent back to the minors. I hope he builds enough value to net something. On another team, he might be a starting center fielder. 6) I've liked Rosario for some time. I think his plate disciple has improved as he's adjusted to the majors. He's a good fielder and can steal a base. Will he be an All-Star? Probably not, but he could be a solid guy for a long time. I don't care that he had not done well in the upper minors, he can hit. 7) Buxton's least developed tool is hitting. I know he'll be fine, but it wouldn't surprise me that he would not be fine until he spends a bit more time in the minors. I hope not. Let's hope he learns at the big league level.

Now Brian, are you sure this is the first game of the series? After all, it's still inter-league play and the site hasn't changed. JK Nice intro, as always. I want the Cubs to do well, but I don't want them to win, does that make sense? I want Buxton to do well, and I do want him to win. I haven't looked at the pitching matchups, but it is tough to get going against St. Louis' staff, the Cubs have to be a bit easier.

Nothing in the original post about Adam Brett Walker? He's having a pretty good year in AA as well. Kepler is leading the Southern League in hitting, second in triples (behind Buxton) and second to Schwarber in OPS. He has to be considered for next year. Also he was named to the Southern All-Star team after Buxton was promoted. I think Mauer to the OF is a non-starter. Arcia is trade bait, despite his offensive upside. Buxton needs to get rolling before Hicks returns or he'll be sent back down.

The outfield and DH positions on the Twins presents many options and decisions will have to be made. The opening day outfield of Hunter, Schafer, and Arcia has been revamped to Hunter, Buxton, and Rosario. DH Kennys Vargas was demoted and has returned, but his status and his future are uncertain. Hunter started slowly this year, had a fine month of May and, with most of the team, fallen off in June. Torii has provided good offense, satisfactory defense and a whole bunch of personality. He's under contract for this season and so far the team has gotten it's money's worth from the almost 40-year old. He figures to be the primary right fielder, with several DH days, going forward. Buxton, the crown jewel of the Twins' farm system, was recalled last Sunday. He has a two week audition where he can take over center field, if not he would go back to the minors. The bar isn't that high and I expect BB will do enough to prolong his stay with the Twins. If Buxton is demoted, the job goes back to Aaron Hicks, who has looked like a big leaguer, but not a future star. Eddie Rosario has had a good run with the Twins. He has played both corners and made a number of good plays in the field. He's done a nice job hitting. He still doesn't walk much, but I think he is getting better at swinging at strikes. I think Rosario is here to stay. Like the Twins best player, Brian Dozier, he can hit, run the bases, and cover a lot of ground in the outfield and he has a good, accurate arm. If Rosario is the regular in left, it moves Oswaldo Arcia to compete with Vargas for DH at-bats. Torii Hunter is on a one-year contract and will be 40 next month. Despite his good season, I can't see Hunter continuing as a player with the Twins. Going forward, the Twins have several candidates to step forward. Arcia is in AAA. In Chattanooga Adam Brett Walker and Max Kepler are having breakout seasons. A year from now, most of those guys could be in the big leagues. It is great to have such a rich farm system, but not all the guys will be able to play where they should be playing. There will be 40-man roster issues and I think the Twins will have to selectively reduce guys who may be read to contribute. That is why I can get behind a building team making a trade where they yield prospects. The Twins need to decide who to go with. I think the emphasis should be to go with younger, more athletic players who can contribute in all facets of the game. Buxton, Rosario, Dozier, and perhaps Hicks represent a bright future.

There are a lot of decision to make with the Twins' position players. About the only completely sure thing is that Brian Dozier will be in the lineup every day. There are options for the Twins and the team has a manager without a long track record, so we don't know which direction he will go on many of the choices to be made. The merry month of May saw an extremely productive offense combined with improved defense from the position players. So far, June has shown a lot of the reverse of that. Let's look at the issues and digest both my predictions and opinions. Catcher has been a weak link this year. Starter Kurt Suzuki has predictably regressed, both on offense and defense. His throwing actually seems a bit better this year, but I believe that has more to do with pitchers doing a better job of holding runners than with Suzuki improving. Suzuki is durable, but I would much rather see him catching less if a better option could be found. Far more balls have found their way to the backstop this year than last year. Also, Suzuki really hit left handed pitching last year. This year, not so much. Internal options to improve the position are limited. Eric Fryer has put up good numbers at AAA, but he hasn't hit in the majors and he's almost 30 years old, Josmil Pinto has shown a good bat, but has defensive and concussion issues and Stuart Turner is a fine defender, but can't stay above the Mendoza line in AA. I have suggested for a while going for a good two-way catcher (Jonathan Lucroy or someone like that) and sending prospects. The second option would be to acquire someone to platoon with Zuke. We've seen guys do this before, many guys pretty unheralded until they are used properly. The third option would be to trade for a blocked prospect (for example SF's Susac). First base. Is Mauer done? The supremely talented, exceptionally athletic player of a few years ago has hit like Chris Parmelee (without the power). The bat seems slow, the swing longer and the results have been dismal. Right now, he is the worst regular first baseman in baseball. It's not just lack of power, he isn't even getting on base. Defensively, he looks more athletic than some, but remains a fish out of water, seemingly always hesitating when there is any choice to be made. The Twins are stuck with Mauer and his contract. He will have an incredibly long leash before there is serious consideration of benching him, but I don't think Molitor can stand for him to continue to hit third. Brian Dozier is the Twins best positon player. The only decision that needs to be made is where he hits in the lineup. I've liked him hitting first, but with Buxton in the majors, he should be shuffling down. When the move is made for Buxton to hit first, I would move Dozier to third and consider having Mauer hit second. Shortstop. I like Escobar quite a bit. He had a fine season last year and I think he would be an above-average bat and glove if he got regular at bats as the shortstop. Danny Santana started the season as the shortstop, but has regressed hard. He is intriguing because of the tools, fast hands and feet and a rocket arm, but he has to stop chasing pitches and recognize which ones to swing at. Jorge Polanco also figures at short. I'm not convinced he can play well enough defensively, but he looks like the most complete hitter of the shortstop candidates. Trevor Plouffe is a solid third baseman. He will stay there at least until Miguel Sano is ready to go and perhaps longer than that. I visualized Plouffe as a guy who could move around, but he has been good enough at third that he should stay there for the Twins until Sano proves he can be an upgrade. Trevor could be a valuable trade chip if the Twins go with Sano. I think Sano sees some time in the majors this year. The young slugger needs to improve on defense before he can move Plouffe down the road. My third and final decisions blog will discuss the outfield and why the Twins probably need to trade a prospect or two.

DocBauer has started a thread similar to what I intend to write. In my case, I'm going to provide my opinion as well as naming issues, so I decided to make a blog entry. There are a lot of issues, but many of those issues are not about weakness, but strength. That is an interesting situation to be in for the Twins, since they have lost more than 90 games in each of the last four seasons. I'll start with the pitching staff. The Twins possess seven starters, none of whom is a #1, but all who are capable, or so it appears. Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have contracts that run through at least 2018. Gibson and May are not yet eligible for arbitration and won't be after this season. Milone is eligible for arbitration, but would be under team control for this year and three more years, and Pelfrey will be a free agent after this year. Things can change, but currently that is two too many starters. There are prospects getting close, as well. It is possible the Twins may trade one of their pitchers. The TD community prefers the (so far) overpaid Nolasco, but with that contract, it is unlikely that they'll find a taker unless they get a bad contract in return. If I'm the GM, I keep my cards close to the vest, but Milone and Pelfrey have to be available. I'm thinking of a deadline trade that is most difficult to make, one that can help both teams this year and beyond. The bullpen is weak. Their ERA is 12th in the 15-team American League, and their peripherals are even worse. Much of the blame has fallen on veterans Brian Duensing and Tim Stauffer (Stauffer was just DFAed), but even their effective bullpen arms allow too many hits and strike out too few. The problem with left handed relievers, outside of closer Glen Perkins, is especially grim. Left handers Caleb Thielbar, Duensing, and Aaron Thompson have allowed far too many base runners, 48 hits and 20 walks in 44.2 innings, with most of the good work coming in April from Thompson. I think one of the lefties will be switched out for Thielbar soon, but another left handed reliever is needed and probably gets acquired from outside the organization. Right handed relief has been better, and there are more options. Blaine Boyer has been a surprise, Casey Fien has been fine, when healthy, and Pressly, Tonkin, and Graham have all had their moments. I think a true power arm for the late innings combined with a solid lefty would transform the bullpen. Many relievers become available for less than monumental returns at the trading deadline. I would hope the Twins could acquire a couple of arms for prospects lower than the top 30 prospects.

I agree 100%. The defense is still worse than average, the bullpen is suspect, but the starting staff has been very good. It is especially encouraging to see pitcher after pitcher work into the seventh and eighth innings.

I still can't understand the "need" for 13 pitchers. The Twins have weathered the "bullpen game" on Saturday and since gotten 8, 7+, 6 and 6 innings from their starters. They now have an off-day. In addition, the way they've been hitting, they are probably in for three or four eight inning games from the pitching staff.

And he throws harder. By itself that doesn't make much difference, but if Tonkin can manage to add a league-average slider or change, he can be effective with his fastball and another pitch. Stauffer didn't have that luxury.

There are problems with #3, #4, and #5 IMHO. Mauer has hit like a #3 hitter for probably three weeks of the first 2+ months. There is some respect for his skills, but no fear. Make a mistake to him and you allow a single. Make a mistake to a great hitter and the scoreboard changes. Plouffe is streaky and currently going poorly. He will snap out of it and maybe he already has. Since some time in May, he hasn't had much protection and that often wears on players.

The Twins didn't score many runs in Boston until they faced a knuckleballer and took advantage of leaky Boston defense. They had one good inning in two games against the Brewers. They still have a good number of runs scored and a positive run differential. They sit in first place by one game with the second-place Royals due in town Monday. In the very successful month of May, the Twins were led by the four guys who usually hit in the first four spots in the order. After a hot first half of the month, Hunter has leveled off and still carries good numbers. Mauer slumped much of the month, but managed to drive in an inordinate amount of runs by being very successful with runners on base, he is showing signs of warming up, but has a long way to reach his career norms. Plouffe is currently in a deep slump after being a consistent run producer and power threat for the first two months. Finally, Dozier remains hot, raising his average above .260 while on an extra-base hit rampage. The club needs help from someone beside those four guys. Twins Daily has had plenty of people complaining about the position players on the team. Shane Robinson, Eduardo Nuñez, Danny Santana, and Chris Herrmann all have detractors who think they shouldn't be on the 25-man roster. Of course, there remain 13 pitchers, leaving one less bench player. Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas and Josmil Pinto have all played for the Twins and are at Rochester now waiting to be recalled. The pitching staff also has suspects among their ranks, probably all in the bullpen. Brian Duensing's numbers are terrible, Tim Stauffer has failed to impress, and Aaron Thompson has regressed hard. With Michael Tonkin, AJ Achter and Lester Oliveros laboring in Rochester, it would seem to make sense to part company with the soft tossing older veterans. Since the club is in first place, perhaps the pressure isn't as great to make a move. However, they probably need to make a move or two before the current lull becomes a full-blown slump. If I were sitting in the GM's chair, I would send Danny Santana to Rochester and replace him with Vargas. Santana seems to have lost confidence and a trip to Rochester might restore that confidence. Vargas' numbers in AAA have been good (SSS) and the club desperately needs a threat (preferably LH) to hit behind Plouffe. If the bullpen is settled after the next turn of starters, perhaps they can reduce the bullpen. The obvious candidates to be let go would be Duensing and Stauffer, but it wouldn't surprise me if Aaron Thompson is optioned instead. Perhaps then it would be time for Arcia to return and try his luck in the outfield. It is less than one month from Ervin Santana getting back and pitching with the Twins. Another pitching decision would have to be made at that time. As long as they are in the hunt, development as a major leaguer takes second place to winning games. It will be interesting to see what happens with calendars turning from spring to fall.

Couldn't say it better myself, although I tried and you beat me by a minute.

Beresford has only played second base for the last two years, maybe more. Obviously, the Twins don't need a second baseman. They can get by with Nuñez as the utility guy (I know he isn't a great fielder), especially since the other two infielders don't get or take many days off. Any injury could bring Santana back to the Twins. The Twins need to bring up somebody that can hit, preferably left handed.

I really think the Twins should go outside the organization for a big-time catcher. If they could pry Lucroy away from the Brewers for a package that doesn't contain a Top 5 prospect, I'd do it.

If Escobar must play, then start him at short and send Santana to Rochester. I think EE is a satisfactory every day shortstop who will hit better in one position.

With the Twins getting attention and solid production from Plouffe and Dozier, I think if selections were made today that either or both of Plouffe and Dozier would be All-Stars. Plouffe is third in both OPS and WAR behind Donaldson and Moustakas. Given the dearth of great candidates in the outfield and shortstop, it is entirely possible that three third basemen are named. Dozier is second in OPS, fourth in WAR (Kipnis is easily the best offensive second baseman so far). Dozier leads all second sackers in runs and homers. Both Dozier and Plouffe are good defenders, to boot. In another six weeks, if their performance continues, I think one or both would be in Cincinnati.

If the Twins were to go to 6 starters, I think one of the guys in fact really goes to the bullpen as a long man/starter in waiting. My current vote would be for Milone to be recalled and May to move to the long man in the bullpen. It is doubtful that six guys would stay both healthy and effective for a full five weeks until Ervin Santana is ready to go.

I didn't think Pelfrey looked that sharp early on Tuesday. He wasn't missing many bats and the Sox hit some balls solidly. As the game wore on, his secondary pitches got a bit sharper and then, with his pitch count up, he breezed through the sixth and seventh. What does all of that say about his pitching this year? Well, I think he's got enough stuff to face even the most powerful lineups, but the command has to be there. He can't throw his fastball middle-middle and expect weak contact. The increased use of the split-finger makes all his pitches more effective. He is going to get a lot of balls hit on the ground and turning them into the maximum number of outs is important. Check Pelfrey's numbers next to Gibson's. They are very similar.

Perkins is the one with the inside track. Dozier is having a similar season to last year at this point, but there are a half dozen elite 2B in the AL. Plouffe is also having a fine year and the position isn't as deep. I would put Hunter in contention because so few OFs are having outstanding years. Other than Perkins, I don't think any pitcher has all-around good enough numbers (wins, strikeouts, ERA) to be considered.

After two straight convincing wins, the Twins stand at 26-18, eight games over .500 for the first time since 2010. It is early, but so far the record says "contention". The record says that the Twins have improved, but a case can be made that the whole thing is "smoke and mirrors". Statistics tell a conflicting story, but the deeper you dig, the more amazing it is that the Twins are among the top teams in the league. The way you count wins and losses in this game is by the number of runs scored. The Twins are doing quite well by this simplest statistic. They have scored 204 runs and allowed 186, that is a run differential of +18, fourth best in the AL, behind Kansas City, Houston and (surprise!) Toronto. Breaking it down a bit further, the Twins score the third-most runs per game, that is very good. They are seventh in fewest runs permitted per innings pitched, so slightly above average. How they come to score that many runs and permit that few is where the smoke and mirrors comes in. Let's start with the offense. In this era of limited run-scoring, no one is hitting like they did ten years ago. The Twins 204 runs in 44 games is an average of 4.64 runs per game which would yield 751 runs in a full season--the 2004 Twins scored 780 runs and finished tenth in runs scored. Minnesota's team batting average so far this year is .257, good for third in the league however, the team OBP is 11th, team slugging is 11th and team OPS is 12th. It isn't home runs, either. The Twins rank 13th out of 15 in in long balls and have given up five more homers than they've hit. Somehow, the Twins have managed to score more runs per game than all but two teams. Last year's team also overproduced when viewing their on-base and slugging. One more point, it isn't the running game or more accurately stolen bases. The Twins are in the bottom half of both stolen bases and stolen base percentage. Pitching and fielding comprise defense. I don't know if it is pitching or fielding or both, but the Twins in the last four years have permitted either the most or second most runs in each of those four years. This year, eight teams are allowing more runs per inning pitched. Even more than the hitting, this result seems to fly in the face of the statistics that should support improvement. Minnesota is dead last in strikeouts, batting average against and hits allowed. They are tenth or worse in OBP against, OPS against and home runs allowed yet the team is allowing 4.23 runs per game. I don't believe the positive runs differential (and 59% winning percentage) can continue with such poor supporting numbers. If the Twins are going to continue to surprise their fans, they need to erase the gap between the stats that predict run-scoring and actual runs scored. Other teams have beaten the odds for portions of seasons, but eventually the law of averages catches up. More games like the last two will do wonders for all the numbers.

Nolasco now leads the pitching staff in the only stat that counts-wins baby!