GNess

Important distinction: A team most likely needs a pitcher to pitch like an ace for the duration of the postseason to seriously contend for a world series title. That increases the subset of possibilities. My take would be the Twins may well have a few of those types of pitchers currently.

Pagan has been in a state of perpetual struggle since joining the Twins. How many more data points do the Twins need?

Interesting take on what makes a position relatively weak. It is only ST but both Gallo and Kepler seem on the right track. If they both produce somewhere above their career median the Twins line up will be pretty good. They both are + defenders as well.

Solano can hit. He is a viable back up at 3 or 4 infield positions. Gordon looks more like an extra OF. It appears from this signing the infield is set: Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Farmer, Solano. Catcher is set; The surplus is in the outfield where there are 6-7 real options for 5 spots; Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Gordon, Larnach, Celestino (?). Looks like only 1 of the last three make the opening day roster. Gordon v Larnach v Celestino battling it out.

The Twins players seem confident. That's a good thing as they prepare for the season ahead. They have a strong core and the pitching is deeper than is typical. Appreciate the insights from ST.

Good take - agreed Kirilloff producing and holding down 1B could be central to a successful season.

Polanco is an above average MLB player. I enjoy watching him. He is steady. However, as mentioned. Polanco plays a position where there seems to be a glut of quality options waiting to emerge. (Lewis, Julien, Martin, Lee etc.) If the FO has confidence in that group moving Polanco may be smart to get a key piece at the deadline. That's assuming his performance is in-line with his career, and he's not just absolutely killing it as he did one or two seasons in the past. Then you ride him...

Agreed playing against lesser teams more frequently should result in better performance. But the link to being an ace and projecting postseason outcomes is beyond speculation. Postseason wins come from such a wide range of factors and plenty of teams (except apparently the Twins for a long time) find ways to win some postseason games lacking an ace or even an ace type performance. Consider the loss to the Astros 4-1 in 2020. Maeda delivered an "ace performance" but the defense and relievers broke down in the 9th inning. The Twins like all MLB teams will be fully capable of winning games in the postseason if they manage to get there. Twins fans seem spooked by the current postseason losing streak. Maybe a fan version of PTSD...

Elite starters are more valuable than elite relievers. Duran deserves a chance to start to see what he can do. If he becomes a true # 1 or # 2 starter both he and the Twins reap the considerable rewards. The injury risk seems overblown unless there is something we don't know.

Not sure why folks are complaining about a surplus of talent. Isn't that what the best teams in MLB routinely have?

The Twins are much better on January 10th than they were on January 9th.

This kid still has a good chance to be a very good MLB player.

Excellent article. However, the financial structure of MLB is completely broken as it does not create an even quasi-level playing field. How are the mid and small market teams supposed to compete when the Big Dogs get to acquire the very best players consistently? So it becomes a "good thing" when the Twins don't resign an. elite player? But it's a move that will give the Giants a much better team for the next 5 years+ since they were able to afford to sign an elite player...

It is wearisome that the Twins can't (means won't) compete in the MLB FA marketplace. Seems that every team with realistic World Series aspirations adds a big FA at least once or twice every few years. The Twins need a new way of looking at success and the pursuit thereof - it's broke and needs to be fixed.

This is a good signing. CV is a well-rounded and proven MLB catcher.

The argument shouldn't be should the Twins trade Polanco. It should be what value can they get for him? I am a big fan of Polanco, enjoy watching him play, but if the Twins can clearly improve their MLB team and chances of stronger contention by trading Polanco of course they should trade him.

How many teams actually win the world series with a generally fiscally-conservative, don't take risks approach? For a sample, take the last ten seasons - really only the Royals in that span could be described in that manner. Champions are bold and take calculated risks. Yes, a long term deal such as this is taking a chance. At least, it's taking a chance on a proven MLB elite-level SS and leader. Risk avoidance is another term for also-ran in sports. Fortune favors the bold....

I like both moves which basically resulted in two like for like players. Although, I suspect Farmer is a better SS option than Urshela. (Who was a good player for the Twins at 3B.) Also there is a cost component as Farmer makes less than Urshela wold have as I understand things. That's not a happy accident by the FO - that is purposeful. Twins are active already....good sign.

Murphy played 116 games at catcher and had over 600 total plate appearances this season. He should be a trade target - he is an elite player at his position.

Starter! He has top of the rotation stuff and make up. SP is more important than BP generally speaking.

Agree Contreras would be a splash. However, as Twins' fans we are conditioned to sift through the "maybe he won't cost too much" pile when thinking about potential Twins in the off season.

There are a lot of semantics in this discussion. about what constitutes an Ace? To me, its a more simple issue - good pitching is a common thread amongst most serious contenders. Good pitching means consistent solid performances above league-average that can be counted upon by the club for long stretches of the season. The Twins need as many good pitchers as they can get. If the Twins can put five good pitchers in the starting rotation they'll be headed in the right direction. (Assuming the BP is competent...)

Yes, there is some downside to a long term deal for Correa. If the Twins are going to contend for a World Series they must have at least a few elite-type players. Correa is an elite SS by almost any standard or metric. He will likely be so for likely another 4-5 years. He seems serious about playing at a high level - when the age related regression does come it doesn't have to be a severe drop off. The Twins should make a sincere effort to sign Correa.

Trades (Conducted through Baseball Trade Values Murphy, Puk for Celestino, Larnach, Winder Lopez for Polanco, Ober Kept Correa Free Agents: Pinder, Givens Lewis to join as UTL when healthy.. C: Sean Murphy ($3.30M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Carlos Correa ($30.00M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Chad Pinder ($2.75M) Utility: Royce Lewis ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Pablo Lopez ($6.60M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Mychal Givens ($3.00M) RP: AJ Puk ($0.70M) RP: Joavni Moran ($0.70M) Payroll is 10.46% under budget

Enjoyed the thoughtful responses on both sides of the Duran as a SP question.