tony&rodney

The Twins are counting on Alex Kirilloff to step forward this year, and I think he will.

The Arraez-Lopez trade seemed inevitable for about the last month but the conversations started in 2022. Miami took a hard stand at some point with the Twins and narrowly focused on Luis Arraez as the must have player in any trade. I suspect a fair number of names were exchanged. I was hoping for a wider trade that included Edward Cabrera or just an acquisition of Cabrera. The Marlins were only interested in Arraez and the Twins felt that Cabrera was too much of a risk in exchange for Arraez. Thus it is Lopez for Arraez and the Twins also managed to also acquire two fair prospects. It's tough to lose Arraez but pitching is the main currency in MLB. The Twins look more solid with the current pitching staff today. There will be significant eyes on Alex Kirilloff and others who were either injured or underperformed last year. If the Twins were correct on their evaluations of players like Jeffers, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Larnach, Kepler, and Gallo the offense should be solid. I expect Royce Lewis to contribute this season, starting in late June. Finally, we should all keep an eye on Julien to see if his bat is ready for MLB.

Miranda needs a new number.

Don't forget about Julien.

... if he is able to stay healthy. We have to add that to Lewis, Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, etc. I'm big on Royce as well.

Not very high on Parada. I doubt any move would take place where he is traded by the Mets for Kepler, which would be all the Twins would offer. Maybe the Twins don't even do that trade because Kepler is useful now whereas Parada is not.

Yes, we all want to keep our very best players, but in order to acquire a potential (emphasis on potential) ace a player of high value will be need to be moved. When a team does not develop a top of the rotation starting pitcher or use free agency to acquire a top pitcher, trades are the last avenue for success. That said, many people have stated that a top pitcher is not needed and the team is fine with what they currently have on the roster. That is fair and I get that thinking. However, I would. like to see Cabrera pitching for the Twins the next six years.

This seems like the rational decision but the price for Cabrera (or Luzardo, etc.) may be much higher by July. Both teams could likely benefit from a trade but the question of which players is a very difficult one for each club. My best guess is that a gamble now is the ticket for October but I'm just guessing like everyone else. I would say that Arraez is the only sure thing, which should mean his value is higher than any of the other players discussed.

No means no. When someone emphatically says no or just tells one no, that means no. Acceptance of no is a vital part of living. The Twins have said no. I get why some people initially suggested looking into signing Bauer. It isn't important if i agree or disagree with the reasons or whatever. The Twins said no and I accept that.

Dusty Baker understands and uses analytics extensively. He has spoken about this before in several interviews. There is a time to play the odds and there is a time to play the game in front of you. Francona has also talked about this same topic - when to use and when to ignore analytics. While it is more pervuasive in the game today, numbers have always been a part of the game. This is why guys like Baker and Francona are comfortable managing the game still. The post is about Baldelli, who is an emerging manager, one who appears to be very tightly tied to the game plan. Perhaps he doesn't have as free of a hand as a vet like Francona or Baker.

Why is anyone even suggesting Bauer. A number of teams are on the record as being "uninterested" in Bauer. This list includes the Twins. The Twins signing Aaron Judge and Jacob deGrom was far more likely (.001%) than any consideration of bringing in Bauer (0%).

If Brooks Lee plays the field with average skills his bat could push him to Target Field this summer. That is super optimistic for sure, but he does profile as a rock steady player. I believe he was passed over by some teams in the draft because the guys ahead of him are super athletic with the potential to become superstars. Keoni Cavaco is such a player, which is why he was drafted by the Twins. Luckily, Lee fell to the Twins and he looks like a player that can start for the Twins for a dozen years and be very productive with his bat while playing a very good third base.

I don't see Arraez losing skill, I see him getting even better. That said, the right return makes him fair to trade if it improves the potential of the team for this year and going forward.

The trade would need to be after the Twins put a couple of guys on the 60 day IL. It is a good idea worth a prospect outside of our top guys, maybe Enlow. Hard to say what the Angels see as fair value for Adell.

Best case for Jorge Polanci is .... Jorge Polanco in odd numbered years.

The roster is not set yet. We need to wait until March 29 to make our predictions.

Royce Lewis is ready to play and contribute as soon as June or July and Brooks Lee is a wild card who I think may prove to be ready this summer. I still think that Julien could rake at the MLB level too. These guys are coming soon. Don't forget about Austin Martin. A player no longer eligible to be considered a prospect may have the biggest impact on the Twins 2023 lineup. Alex Kirilloff is supposedly swinging pain free but just a little bit behind schedule. It is expected that he will be fully ready to go full out by mid March. We shall hear more about this in February. If the Twins know that Alex is ready to roll, they are free to move on a trade or two. I think all of the posts concerning the Miami pitchers is hopeful of acquiring a pitcher now, before the price goes up. Pablo Lopez has been the main guy in most articles. Miami has declared Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez as "off limits", stictly "unavailable". which still leaves some real potential to gain via trade. One or two guys is best, in this order (for me): Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Dax Fulton, Max Meyer, and Jake Eder. The gamble is trading now and counting on the Lewis, Lee, Julien trio to step in and be good this year, and have the pitchers who are acquired (hopefully Cabrera +1) be healthy and successful in the starting rotation. Waiting until July may be missing the boat on a couple of potential aces.

Gordon has come through some difficult injuries and illnesses and his performance last season was a decent show of skill and improvement. Nick has a knack for getting better at baseball with each subsequent season at a level. 2023 will be Gordon's second full year at the MLB level and if he has worked diligently in the offseason to prepare, we may see Gordon display the talent projected when he was a high draft choice so long ago. When motivation meets talent and athleticism, things happen for the better.

Pablo Lopez simply rates higher than any current Twins starter. That said, he has just two years of control remaining. The guys with multiple years of control (more than two) to look at are Cabrera and Luzardo. They also project as better than what the Twins currently have in their rotation. On the other hand, all of Arraez, Miranda, Kepler, Larnach, and Jeffers would be big pickups for the Marlins. NO, not all of them. The Marlins and Twins match up nicely for a trade and fans of both teams will find fault if it occurs, when their favorite player is moved.

Arraez is still improving as a baseball player and batsman. Miami is correct to target Luis but the Twins are right to be stubborn in their demands. That said, i do believe that both teams would benefit from a trade. The Twins need to take the gamble on the unproven starters with tremendous potential, while the Marlins get a sure thing to boost their offense. Arraez, Larnach, and two players not on the 40 person roster (Urbina, Miller) for Cabrera and Luzardo is my current deal. I would miss Arraez and Larnach, but I'm hoping for a breakout from Cabrera and Luzardo that pushes the Twins into post season baseball. Miami would also be a more balanced team.

McCutcheon was never going to happen unless he was still unsigned in mid March and the Twins felt a need at that time.

Yes, Houston has a pretty good bullpen. Let us look at the Houston-Minnesota starting pitcher innings. Twins IP Houston IP Ryan 147. 0 Valdez 201.1 Bundy 140.0 Verlander 175 Mahle 120.2 Urquidy 164.1 Gray 119.2 Garcia 157.1 Archer 102.3 Javier 148.2 Smeltzer 70.1 Odorizzi 60.0 Houston replaces Verlander and Odorizzi with a healthy McCullers and a top prospect Hunter Brown. Minnesota replaces Bundy, Archer, and Smeltzer with Maeda, Ober, and Winder. The Valdez, Garcia, Javier, McCullers, and Brown talents all slot above Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda, and Ober. While the Twins do have good starters, they need to add one or two starting pitchers with talent/upside. Any of Cabrera, Luzardo, and Lopez would help and that alone would strengthen the bullpen. This would be especially true if the added starter pushed Maeda into relief, where he would be terrific and also build his arm strength.

What does Houston and Dusty Baker say on this?

MLBTradeRumors and others must be following the ongoing Twins-Marlins scenarios Continuous press and posts all seem to agree that there is common benefit for these two teams to complete a trade. Personally, I hope they find something that works for each team. The Marlins are deep in pitching and the Twins have corner players galore with Lewis, Lee, Martin, and Julien coming soon.

The Twins do need a starter with upside. The top dozen pitchers in baseball are simply not available. Either Luzardo or Cabrera should be the conversation. Arraez or Miranda plus Larnach or Kepler should be enough to acquire either of the Marlins young starters. A gamble worth taking for the potential.