by jiminy

Could you add a link where you say, "Patrick’s post on the top-5 regression candidates for the Twins"?

Thank you for this! I thought his weakness was outside breaking balls! I had no idea his numbers were that bad against fastballs. Moving up to bottom third from bottom eighth seems like it has a realistic chance of being sustainable. In fact he could keep improving! If they can convince him there is nothing heroic about intentionally injuring yourself he could still reach his potential. If he's too stubborn to stop running into wall and face planting into the turf, trade him for pitching while he's still worth something. But if he understands he is letting down his teammates by gambling with his health, and his first responsibility is to protect his body, he could lead this team to greatness.

I'm afraid the best candidate for "next Ryan Pressly" is Brusdar Graterol.

I like Maeda, but I would prefer to have Ryu, Graterol, and Raley. Imagine Ryu starting against the Yankees, then bringing in Graterol. That's a playoff team could match up with anyone.

Not much good happens going after a low outside curveball. That used to be the bane of Buxton and Sano. If they can continue to hold off on those pitches outside the zone the sky is the limit. If not, they could go back to hitting .180 again.

If Buxton gets injured again Kepler could move to CF. We might need all these guys.

Cruz, Gonzales, Bailey, Hill, and Romo are not painful losses, and that's 39 million right there. Cruz is good but one of Rooker, Larnach, or Kirilloff should be ready to step in. Gonzalez is replaceable with Cave, Astudillo, or Adrianza, and his value was inflated by stealing signs anyway. The three pitchers are not anchors either. So that's below 100 even without losing Odo or May. And there is a good chance someone in house will be the equal or better of Odo by then, potentially freeing another 17 million, bringing the departed salary up to 56 million, none of it core players except maybe Odorizzi. Replace Rosario with a young slugger and there is another 8 million, making 64 million available to restock. And that is just to get back to spending barely half of revenue. Sure several guys will need raises, but I don't see a big crunch. I think they are set up really well for years to come. There is room in the budget to add an ace, especially if they are in win-now mode and decide to make up for all the years they spent under 50% because their window hasn't opened yet. The converse of that logic is you spend more when you finally become a legit contender. I'm optimistic they will strike if they see an opportunity. It's been a long, long wait, and if they don't want to lose the fans that stuck with them through the hard times it would behoove them to spend a little of that stadium money on rewarding their old fans and recruiting new ones. Nothing attracts fans like winning, so even on purely financial grounds it would be money well spent.

Wow, with all the talent on this team Cave was not even on my radar! To hold his own at this stagee of his career is already impressive. But if he really can take it up another notch, that opens up some more options. For instance, instead of trading him, we could trade someone else. If you could play him every day without a big drop off, that makes someone else expendable. It makes me much more interested in trading Buxton for Syndergaard, for example. Kepler in center is a drop off from Buxton, but not as much as the increase in value of having a true ace in the rotation. If either Cave or Rosario can't hack it, corner outfield is our strongest position of depth in the minors. And If Kepler can't hold down center you've got Lewis in waiting there too. Sure, Buxton could be a superstar, but so could Thor. I think we'd be a bigger threat in the playoffs by trading from strength and upgrading our rotation. (Assuming we extended Thor as part of the deal -- I wouldn't trade Buxton for a rental.) But this team would be truly scary with an ace, and Buxton might be the only guy that could land one. The Mets asked about him last year. Why not give them a call?

I don't love giving up Graterol for essentially payroll relief. I would much rather have seen them sign Ryu and keep Graterol. And if you don't sign Bailey, who was also signed because he was cheap, He wouldn't even cost that much more. With Ryu and Graterol, you have two pitchers who could dominate in the playoffs. Bailey and Maeda are compromises, made for financial reasons. It's great they signed Donaldson but that still barely put payroll at half of revenue. If you have a window open go for it. These aren't go for it moves. Imagine Ryu followed by Graterol against the Yankees. That's a playoff team. It's nice they got a cheap, pretty good pitcher, but it's not exciting, and I'll miss Graterol. Probably smart if you're on a tight budget but keeps them a level below the favorites.

The Boston press is hammering the Red Sox even more: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/everyone-knew-brusdar-graterol-was-damaged-goods-everyone-except-red-sox-apparently

Maeda makes $13.15M as a full time starter, and Bailey makes $7 million. Together that adds up to more than Ryu is making. Would you trade them both for Ryu? I would have thought yes. Ryu is guaranteed for four years though and these guys are not. But is Graterol worth the cost of insuring Ryu's contract? Maeda isn't even younger than Ryu. I guess they just like Maeda better. I trust they know more than I do but it seems odd.

To be worth it they have to expect him to pitch enough innings to reach his incentives, which add up to $13,150,000 per year. For another $7 million they could have had Ryu and kept Graterol. They must not think very highly of Graterol.

The Twins were robbed in another way, too, by paying for prediction from Gonzales that will never happen again without cheating.

If he can work on his secondary pitches between appearances, fine. I don't think he'll reach his ceiling until he does that. But providing useful innings now, while working on his changeup etc. on the sidelines, could keep his options open to still start later.

Regarding pitching, a trade for an up and comer would be great, but I wouldn't mortgage the future for an aging vet. It's possible the pitching we need is already in the system. If they strike gold with Graterol, Balazovic, Dobnak, Thorpe, or Duran, this team is set up to compete for a long time.

Yes he's an injury risk, but the fact that they knew that and paid him anyway makes me give then even more credit for going for it! And this lineup is DEEP! Those scary 1 through 9 lineups above don't even include Marwin! They are built to just keep on coming at you, even when injuries hit. This is not one if those all your eggs in one basket free agent gambles. Worst case, Sano or Gonzales covers third, and we're fine. (Or Adriana or Arraez or Astidillo...) Very impressed at the team they built, short and long term.

My favorite part about this is thinking about how afraid other teams will be when they come to play here! I think we'll see some teams pressing, desperately swinging for the fences in a futile effort to keep pace.

If they really replace the juiced ball with the playoff game as rumored, a lot of guys are going to have bounce back seasons. Good time to take a flyer on some. Smyly has two things that could have been temporary issues -- injuries and the juiced ball. I can see how he could have huge upside as a low risk/high reward candidate. Another guy MLBTR likes for a rebound is Tanner Roark. He's not on this list because he never crashed, and isn't cheap. But they point out he fell from a sub-3 ERA to 4-plus, despite a career high K/BB ratio last year, almost entirely from the long ball. He just got 2/24M from the Jays, which is not peanuts, but I would not be that surprised if he outperforms Bumgarner next year, if MadBum comes to the AL.

Gunnarther's points are all well taken. I would just add a few additional points on the positive side. Regarding your conclusion, "most of the success is because of the players, not the FO or ownership," I think the front office deserves some credit for player development. The hitting and pitching coaches they hired appear to have contributed to significant improvements in velocity and pitch selection among the pitchers, and to improved pitch selection among the hitters. For instance, was Odorizzi undervalued when they traded for him, or appropriately value and he improved while here? Either way reflects well on management. Likewise you credit them for "letting guys like Polanco and Kepler play," which I agree was a bold and correct decision (not to mention correctly assessing their potential and locking them up long-term, which now looks brilliant!) But stating it that way implies that playing time alone was all they needed to become stars. That may be true, but the fact is they improved notably, as did several other hitters, and such is improvement is far from inevitable, suggesting they were also well coached. Perhaps most impressive is the dramatic improvement of relievers like Duffey, May, and Rogers. At the beginning of the year I thought the failure to upgrade the bullpen was egregious malpractice and would doom the season. By the end of the season their bullpen was above average, and those three guys look like core contributors. I'm very impressed by that. They also got contributions from Littell, Dobnak, and Smeltzer, while pulling the plug at appropriate times on Harper, Parker, Magill, and Hildenberger. I'd still like to see Hildy and Romero blossom, but I'm glad they weren't throw out there when we needed wins and weren't delivering. My main point is, while it's definitely significant that 7 of their top 10 WAR players were acquired by previous management, and I'm glad to have that pointed out, I don't think it's inevitable that those previously acquired players would have become so productive without the new coaches. I can't tell how much credit should go to the players and how much to the coaches, and I think you're right to give most to the players. But I do think the player-development staff made a contribution as well, and based on last year, they seem to be good at bringing out the best in their players. And that gives me a great deal of hope for the future.

I don't know if I'd trade Balazovic for Price straight up. Probably not. As you say he's not an ace and is on the downswing, and is expensive. Balazovic has very high upside and will be cheap for years. If Price were an ace who could make you a favorite in a playoff series, maybe, but what starting pitcher on a playoff team would he be favored against? One year of Betts at least has appeal, because he could be a difference maker in the playoffs. But then he's gone. Maybe Polanco and Sano? But only because they have question marks. Either or both could make this deal look very one sided, starting in one year and lasting well into the decade. At least that's a genuine win-now move, though, unlike Price. But it still seems like a lot of downside and only limited upside. I get the rationale for acquirin both because getting Betts is pointless unless you seriously upgrade the rotation. I just don't think he's an ace. Let's see them land an ace or two, and then I'll start getting interested in win-now moves. But adding Betts to a team whose second best pitcher is ... I don't even know, is more of a sinking feeling than a thrill to me.

Here is that article Parker linked to via tweetb above https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/automated-strike-zone-whiffs-at-arizona-fall-league/#.XcAgSIRkfNg.twitter Thanks, very interesting! I think those unexpected stikes that just clip the front or the back of the zone are something people will get used to. If they can adjust to a new strike zone every game, they can get used to a consistent one. And if r consensus is it really seems too big, they can change the rule. If you don't like the rules, don't break them, change them. And as several commenters pointed out, a four second wait for the call is not a four second delay. Catchers don't wait to throw the ball back till they hear the call. And umpires don't shout the call simultaneously with the ball's arrival now. In any case to speed of the computer will only increase. Really, though, the best solution would be to flash the call immediately on the scoreboard. The ump could still shout it out too. But it makes no sense for the computer's call to go only to him. It should flash red or green on the scoreboard the second it registers. Problem solved. The only reason to make the whole stadium wait for him to relay it is to cater to the umpires' egos. Which is exactly what we are trying to get rid of. If the ump thinks there was a glitch and wants to review it he can call for a replay. But there's no reason to delay every call so the ump can think about whether he wants to overrule it, or worse yet, overrule it without even letting people know!

Fair, accurate, consistent calls? The horror! The vaunted "human element" is nothing but mistakes, bias, and petty shows it dominance. The wrong call is never preferable to the right call. Period. I can't wait.

I'm tired of being expected to fawn over Buxton for how hard he plays. As I see it, he routinely and intentionally risks injury in unnecessary and counterproductive ways. Who does that benefit? Not the team. It almost cost the Twins the division this year. That's not heroism, that's selfishness. The idea that he is willing to risk his body for the benefit of his team and his teammates is the opposite of what I see. He is risking his team's success for the benefit of his ego. The team had to ask him to play deeper so he wouldn't crash into the walls so hard? How about just stop crashing into walls so hard? But no, instead he puts on 30 pounds of muscle, from some delusion that makes him injury proof? And no one can call him on it or what, he'll pout? It's embarrassing. If you want to talk about who is exploiting the service time rules, how about Buxton intentionally damaging his team's prize asset, his body, knowing that he will continue accruing service time even while on the shelf? I think Buxton is one of the best players in the league, but I would have serious reservations about signing him to a long term contract unless there was a significant discount based on injury risk. According to his past history, you should expect to get about half the games you pay for from him. That's how much he should be projected to be worth going forward. Anyone who pays him what he's worth at his best for seven years, not for his actual history of intermittent production, is going to get hosed. I've seen no indication from him he intends to protect himself. Even estimating you'll get half the games you pay for is optimistic, because that's assuming he keeps getting back on the field after each injury. Look how long his shoulder took to heal. And he's young and healthy. As the damage accumulates, he'll come back slower and slower, as in, slower to heal, and less productive. Look what concussions did to Mauer, Morneau, and Koskie. What are Buxton's chances of playing as long as they did, at this rate? Morneau and Koskie retired early, and Mauer had to move to first base. Buxton isn't moving to first base. He's either going to have agree to pull up and let a ball drop now and then, or he's going to be out of the league by age 30. The idea that he got screwed out of service time in a year he hit .156/.183/.200 while playing in 28 games is crazy. Yes, he's an all-world fielder, when healthy. Yes, he has tantalizing spurts of good hitting. But I don't think he should have even been on the big league team until he proved he could hit major league pitching. When your team is as bad as the Twins were, why promote a guy before he's ready? He was promoted too early in hopes that he would learn to hit in the majors. It didn't work. He should have been in AAA until he was ready to hit consistently. His major league service time should have been earned when he was actually contributing to his full potential, and the team was good enough for it to matter. I think he'd have made more money over all if he had been allowed to focus on learning his trade in AAA and was promoted when he was ready to be a star. His arb numbers would be huge, and his free agent payday would be monstrous, if his track record was that of a star from day one, not a spotty disappointment with flashes of potential spread over five years. The only reason he was in the majors was to dangle something worth watching in front of the disheartened fans of a 90 loss team. A number one prospect in baseball shouldn't take five years to break a .728 OPS. I think the Twins have been wasting his service time, personally. I don't think he accrued too little service time in the past five years, I think he accrued way too much.

To me the only player I can see the team crumbling if they lost him is Berrios. There are so many good hitters that no one of them is indispensable. Berrios is the only indispensable player on the team, IMO. The other player they could not have done without this year is Rogers. I know the hitters carried the team; as a group they are clearly why they won the division. They just had so damn many of them! Doesn't mean any one of them didn't contribute hugely. It just makes any one of them less crucial. When you have five 30 HR guys, losing one means you still have four. The team doesn't fall apart. Take out Cruz and you still have seven 20 homer guys and ten in double digits! You could live without him. I'm fine with saying it's Cruz, or Kepler, or any if those guys. They all came up huge. Just depends what you mean by most valuable. If it means, couldn't have done it without then, I'd put Berrios and Rogers above them. If it means, how much did they contribute, you have a wonderful problem because so many contributed so much. But my top five would probably be Berrios, Rogers, Kepler, Cruz... and then either Odorizzi, Polanco, or Garver. Damn, that's a solid team when Sano and Buxton don't make your top eight! No disrespect to them!

The A's are not tearing it down. They have an affordable, playoff-level roster, to whom they are adding Luzard, Puk, and Manaea, virtually free. They are like the Twins but with three low-cost ace pitchers already in the fold. They made the playoffs the last two years with a rotation of castoffs. Next year they are going to be monsters, without even straining their budget. But most other teams would happily lower payroll if given young prospects in return. We are extremely well positioned to pick up a costly veteran in a salary dump. We could throw in a high-upside minor league pitcher like Duran or Alcala who they could sell to their fans as a better long-term investment in their rotation, which would probably be true, and we could get an ace. And we probably should, since our offense is ready now. Let's just hope it's not Archer redux. The truth is we could afford Cole as a free agent, and two more good veterans. That 70M in unspent budget still would leave payroll well below 50% of revenue. They could afford to spend well more than that while making record profits. They socked away quite a lot during the losing years, claiming they were waiting for the competitive window to open to spend. Well it's open. Time to spend. Adding a reliever or two might be wise too. Graterol should be in the minors developing as a starter. To compete sustainably they'll need a few pitching prospects to turn into underpaid aces. Hopefully he and Balazovic pan out, so when our lineup gets pricey and we start losing hitters, the rotation will provide enough cheap innings to stay competitive. And guys like Lewis, Larnach, Kiriloff, Rooker, and Javier can replace the hitters who hit free agency.