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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Gibson actually fell in the draft over health concerns, so that was a different situation, and Jay was just activated off the DL and apparently didn't suffer a major injury. But sure, college pitchers get hurt. Pitchers get hurt in general. The odds are still better with a more advanced pitcher that has handled higher workloads.
  2. drivlikejehu
    This thread shows that a lot of posters don't understand how much of a long-shot Greene is. Wright is far from a lock, but he has proven the ability to handle a far larger workload, face better competition, and throw quality secondary pitches. His age is actually a plus because he has pitched for several years without injury, whereas there is no telling whether the Greene will or not. It's obviously wrong to say the higher upside pick is always preferable. No team would ever take a 5% chance at a 70 player instead of an 80% chance of a 60 player. Pitching is a numbers game - you need a lot of them because of attrition. You don't build up depth through long-shots. Sure, occasionally one hits, but a club needs a steady stream of good pitchers. The best amateur pitcher is one with both a high upside and a good chance to reach it. Wright has that. Greene just has the upside.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Well, there are AAAA pitchers that meet your criteria, so it is basically a meaningless standard. You can not care about projections all you want, but every front office considers how strong of a club they have before making major decisions. You're not considering the issue seriously if you don't. The Twins are 25% of the way through the season and 1 game up on Cleveland, a clearly superior team. Making ill-informed decisions based on gut feel is obviously not a path to success. Just because so far as you can "see," the Twins are close to a 90-win caliber team, doesn't mean that objectively your gut feelings have any validity.
  4. drivlikejehu
    I would have to do an analysis before I could determine what I'd give up. Note that Greinke has a limited no trade clause and might very well exercise it to block a trade to the Twins.
  5. drivlikejehu
    The D'backs would laugh at this joke of an offer. No one wants guys like Jorge, Vielma, Palka, etc. Classic internet fantasy trade. Who meets your definition of legit starter? Also, what is your rest-of-season projection if the Twins stand pat? Fangraphs has it at 78 - the WAR benefit from your suggestion is not even close to enough.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Greene's floor is San Diego at #3 and the Twins never seemed likely to draft him, so I don't think Greene has cost himself much, if anything.
  7. drivlikejehu
    The Twins have some good position players but are nowhere close to having "the basics needed to win." They have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball - they can deal every single prospect and still be way below average. There is no in-season solution to the problem. The Twins may well need to deal prospects for pitching, but the time to do it is in the off-season, and in conjunction with free agent signings. They didn't go all-in for this year after losing 103 games the year before . . . if you think that was a mistake, fine, but it's too late now.
  8. drivlikejehu
    As much as the Twins notionally are desperate for a decent starting pitcher (among other things), in reality that's basically 1-2 wins at best and little help in a putative playoff run. The benefit is limited. Now, 1 or 2 wins can be significant. But who knows what will be available for a price that makes sense.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Haley does ok for a guy with no stuff or command.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Tyler "High Leverage" Duffey.
  11. drivlikejehu
    I never said he would lose it, I just don't think he currently sits in the high 90s throughout his games, and don't think it's likely he would in pro ball either (as a starter).
  12. drivlikejehu
    He's not.
  13. drivlikejehu
    I don't think he averages 98+. You could share a link if you've read that. But in any case, high schoolers don't necessarily add velocity when they transition to pro ball. Some do, some stay the same, some decrease. As a general rule though, velocity peaks young - so young that just measuring MLB players isn't sufficient.
  14. drivlikejehu
    What was his velocity?
  15. drivlikejehu
    Fort Myers to Chattanooga is also a transition from an extreme pitchers' park to an extreme hitters' park. Combined with the level change, that is fairly tough for a pitcher. Even if they pitch well their numbers won't be as pretty, given the environment.
  16. drivlikejehu
    He doesn't sit 100 now, or really hit it very often, and he'd be throwing a lot more pitches as a pro.
  17. drivlikejehu
    The biggest risk factor for all players is that they aren't good enough to play in the Majors. Pitcher injury risk gets a lot of attention, but I think maybe even more important is the fact that pitchers develop somewhat differently than hitters. To me, the only thing you can even partially bank on with a pitcher - assuming health - is what he can already do on the mound. Command does tend to improve slowly over time, velocity tends to decrease slowly over time, but beyond that pitcher development is highly volatile. If a HS pitcher is the better pitcher today than a college pitcher, I want the HS pitcher. If the college pitcher is better, I want the college pitcher, with maybe a very rare exception if it's close and the HS pitcher is a superior athlete.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Well, change-ups aren't bad for your arm. But in any case, Greene's currently mediocre off-speed stuff is a huge risk factor. A lot of touted HS arms in the past already had a signature out pitch - Cole Hamels and the change-up, Josh Beckett and the curve, etc. I have nothing against HS picks, I just don't see 1-1 with Greene. In pro ball he'll sit mid-90s, which is fine but nothing that special these days, and very few prospects develop elite off-speed pitches unless they already had a natural feel for it as an amateur. Plus I think Greene is a particularly bad fit for the Twins, given their pitcher development track record - for sure Greene needs a ton of development, even if you like him as a prospect. I'm not a scout, so I don't say what the Twins should do, but passing on Greene makes complete sense.
  19. drivlikejehu
    The level of experience is a huge difference between Greene and McKay. Greene is not really a two-way player in any meaningful sense because <a> he's obviously a better prospect as a pitcher and <b> by the time a switch could be made, he'd be at least several years removed from facing even HS-level opposition. At least McKay faced SEC players. He'd be rusty but the baseline experience would still be a huge help.
  20. drivlikejehu
    For patient hitters, you can't totally separate on-base from power. If pitchers aren't worried about the hitter punishing them, they will just throw the ball over and take their chances. Wade has enough raw power that I think he has a decent shot at something like .270/.350/.420 - which begs the question of how good of a defensive corner outfielder he is/will be.
  21. drivlikejehu
    He's just not very good. They'll keep throwing him out there but it is what it is.
  22. drivlikejehu
    I am perplexed by the notion that Kintzler has some right to pitch the 9th inning for the Twins until he implodes. He hasn't been the closer for very long, has never closed out important games, isn't paid much, isn't particularly good . . . I don't even care that much because the Twins have limited options, but the idea that the Twins owe save opportunities to Kintzler is just flat wrong.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Palacios has a .486 (!!) BABIP. Obviously he's been hitting the ball hard, but still that's going to come down quite a bit. He and Whitefield definitely have early-season helium, from a prospect standpoint.
  24. drivlikejehu
    There's no chance that the Twins or any other club will have a starting pitcher also be a starting position player. Starters have a routine that they follow to rest their arm, etc., which would be disrupted even as a DH. A reliever could potentially be a lineup regular, and a starter could be available as a pinch-hitter sometimes, but that's pretty much the extent of it. The benefit to McKay's two-way talents is a reduction in risk without compromising upside - he has significant potential either way. Nor are the outcomes of the pitching and hitting tracks necessarily correlated; in other words, if his bat disappoints, that doesn't do much to devalue his pitching potential. Also important is the fact that, as a college player, a reassessment of McKay's position could be made within a relatively short timeframe if Plan A looks like a mistake. Greene, by contrast, would need much more time for such a determination, and he would have to start back at square one, whereas McKay at least faced SEC competition already as a hitter and pitcher.
  25. drivlikejehu
    It's not impossible that Turley has had a breakthrough in his ability, despite his relatively advanced age. Things like that do happen.
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