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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Littell, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Harper,and Stashak all have ERA's well under 4.00. Then we have Graterol that throws strikes at 100 mph and very likely would join the club of sub 4.00 with more innings. By contrast the 87 team had one reliever with a sub 4 ERA (and that was 3.99). If the stats above hold true through the next 2 weeks that is 9 relievers with sub 4.00 ERA plus Graterol. Further contrast is Gibson and Perez with ERA's above 4.75 and trending higher. If you don't work bullpen games into the rotation you are wasting bullets on the bench and biting your nose to spite your face.
  2. Dantes929
    I like Gibson but unless they can show some really good stuff in their last two starts I think you gotta keep Gibson and Perez off the roster. Berrios and Odorizzi backed up by May Duffey, Romo and Rogers. Smeltzer, Dubnak, Graterol, Littell, Stashak and Thorpe for depth and a bullpen game or two or 3. I like the idea of putting a bullpen game against the other team's ace, especially the way our pen has been pitching but do the Yankees even have an ace? If we threw Smeltzer, Dobnak, Littell Stashak and Graterol the only one that has a higher ERA than any of the Yankee starters is Graterol. I just think the pen has a higher upside than any starter after our top 2. Since they would all be looking at just a couple innings you could throw bullpen in game 1, Berrios in game 2, day off, bullpen in game 3, Odorizzi in game 4, day off and bullpen in game 5. I know I shouldn't get carried away with how our bullpen did last weekend but I just think it is a better option than Gibson or Perez who probably don't last that long anyway. I like Odorizzi a little better than Berrios so the other option is Odorizzi in game one, bullpen, Berrios, bullpen and then Odorizzi in game 5. Last thing we should do is follow traditional formula when we don't have the traditional strengths. Of course 2 weeks is a long time and performances will change our view but as it stands that is the way I would do it. Who would have thought that bullpen games could be viewed as a really good thing just a month ago but guys have really stepped up.
  3. Dantes929
    Not sure what is depressing about Romo giving up a homerun. An error and a walk before the home run would have been depressing. Everyone gives up runs. Everyone. Twins did a nice job of hanging in there to get a big win.
  4. Dantes929
    Unless he blows up in the next two weeks I don't know how you can keep Littell off the postseason roster. Gave up 8 runs in two appearances in May. Since then he has been absolutely lights out in his last 22 appearances. I could imagine a playoff roster without Gibson or Perez.
  5. Dantes929
    With Rogers, Graterol, Littell, May, Duffey, Romo, Smeltzer, Dobnak and Stashak all throwing well it would seem in our best interests to have a bullpen for one spot and a short leash on Perez and Gibson going forward. Have we ever had a bullpen this deep? I know some of these guys are unproven but I have no qualms about any of these guys getting innings. I have no idea how Romo does it with an 84 mph fastball and 90% sliders. I feel a little bad for Romero because it seems some bad luck haunts him in the form of fluke singles, errors, etc. but it seems like he always compounds the bad breaks with a walk or two and wild pitches so he still owns it. Calling them bullpen games seems a little disingenuous since Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe can all go 4 or 5 innings.
  6. Dantes929
    I wouldn't have suggested Berrios except he was the expected starter and we had a two run advantage with 4 to go. Seems like a good bet though of course could have gone all wrong. We have a rotation of sorts. Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Perez and Dobnak/Thorpe/Smelzer. I would not mind seeing the last three listed replace Perez and Gibson if they don't do well in their next return. I'm not down on either necessarily but am concerned about Gibson's health and Perez seems to be at replacement level. Get to the playoffs first. Then Berrios becomes our poor man's 87 Viola, Odorizzi becomes our 87 rich man's Blyleven and take your pick for 87 Straker. Bullpen was probably already the equal of the 87 pen before Romo and the emergence of Duffey, May, Littel and Graterol. Fun times ahead hopefully.
  7. Dantes929
    Of course there is some hindsight here but maybe Berrios would have been a good guy to pitch the 6th through the 9th. A two run lead and just 4 innings to get through. A win today against our closest rivals would have been worth more than a win Monday.
  8. Dantes929
    I would tend to rank it Kepler, Rogers, Cruz, Polanco but come on. With the article and all the comments I don't see Odorizzi's name once? Better ERA, W-L, FIP, ERA+ than Berrios. Innings per start is his only flaw. Huge 7 innings shutout against Verlander and the Astros. Huge win against Cleveland for our only win in the last series with them. Twins won 8 of his last 9 starts at a time when Berrios was struggling, Gibson was sick, Perez was inconsistent and Pineda was being suspended. I think I put him at #5 with an inclination to put him higher still.
  9. Dantes929
    Home field, trending, starting pitching, injuries. Sweeps were the two least likely occurrences but the same reasons the Indians were favored to take two of three would give them the sweep edge as well. Given that many here would have been happy to win one of three and a minority but not super small thought being swept was likely I am fairly confident in my odds. Now Twins taking 2 of 3 is just slightly better odds than us sweeping them. Good place to be.
  10. Dantes929
    91-57. That is fantastic. Haven't we been through enough highs and lows to know that a week to 10 day stretch can change everything? We are sitting really, really good but still have to take care of business.
  11. Dantes929
    Great win. That took care of the 3rd most likely result which was getting swept. It also flips the likelihood of who wins 2 of 3 since two games between good teams is generally a split. Also keeps what was the least likely result which was a sweep of the Indians in play. Great job bullpen including Smelzer.
  12. Dantes929
    The most likely result is Cleveland taking 2 of 3. Next most likely is Twins taking 2 of 3. 3rd most likely is Indians taking 3 and 4th most likely is Twins taking 3. I will not show my work. It is all about feel. Fangraphs and BR say Twins are 98% to make the playoffs. Proper odds on that would be a payoff of 50-1 if the Twins do not make the playoffs. I agree that the true odds are between 60-80% that they make the playoffs so if offered the chance I would bet $100 at a 50-1 (98%) payoff that the Twins do not make the playoffs. I would not bet $100 for 1.5 payout (60%) but would consider it at 5-1 payout (80%).
  13. Dantes929
    When we were 11 games up I said wait a week to 10 days and the picture might look a lot different. When we were down .5 games I said wait a week to 10 days and the picture might look a lot different. If we are up .5 games and bumming on Monday wait a week to 10 days and the picture might look a lot different. 162 games is a roller coaster with heavy optimism or heavy pessimism carrying the day. For some that rollercoaster is experienced in a 1 game window rather than a week to 10 days.
  14. Dantes929
    i would prefer to win outright but a game 163 with loser going to wild card would be a lot of fun also. Fangraphs has us at 94% chance to win the division. Any one else feel like the real odds are a little more than half that? A win tonight would make us all happy.
  15. Dantes929
    They are smarter than you think. Lamarre has an .809 OPS when playing for Chicago. Since we play the Whtie Sox next week this was just a preemptive move to make sure they don't reacquire him to play against us. OK, I guess that explains why they acquired him but not why they are playing him rather than calling Kiriloff up.
  16. Dantes929
    Reminds me of those game graphs showing odds of winning. You see a team with a huge percentage to win with a 2 run lead but then a 3 run homer turns it on its head. Twins playoffs chances were something like 8% a few years ago but a good stretch of winning can change everything and they got in fairly comfortably. Of course odds are odds for a reason but thats all they are. I have said all season I will be comfortable only when we are up X games with X-1 games to play. That is still true but in my mind this is still going according to script from about a month ago. I thought it would be close in mid September and then the strength of schedule would likely have the Twins prevail in the last 13 games. The only real surprise to me is that we are still ahead 4 games right now. I thought it would be closer to even but to counteract that good result I thought we would be much healthier. . Championships aren't supposed to be easy.
  17. Dantes929
    I think Berrios threw really well but also think he might be helped by the fact that the Nats never faced him. That curve ball is really nasty and I think takes getting a little used to. Its knee buckling but maybe a little too east to west and if teams see it enough get better at laying off it. Along those lines I thought Berrios really got hosed on a couple important pitches. If the ball ends up on the low outside corner and broke a foot down and across how can that not be a strike? I am guessing Berrios would benefit by roboump more than anyone.
  18. Dantes929
    I thought immediately of Kubel also but the counter to that is Arraez who has thrived. Buxton is now officially out so I would want a possible impact guy like Kiriloff. Rosario, Kepler and Cave but I would be happy with Kiriloff backing them up.
  19. Dantes929
    Said most fans in 87. Said most fans of every wild card before their team advanced. Of course you might be right. Twins aren't going to be favored but I wouldn't even watch if I thought most of the actual players felt like you do. Being a fan of a team that advances despite the odds is so much more satisfying than being a fan of a team that advances because of being a heavy favorite. Of course the underdog advances less often. That;s what makes it sweeter.
  20. Dantes929
    This is a great article and mostly reflects my thoughts. I am happy the Twins are up 5.5 games in September. I thought going into the last 10 games the two teams would be very close and the advantage the Twins had in schedule in that time would carry the day. This is fun people. Division titles aren't supposed to be easy. All I asked of the season was for September games to be important and they certainly are. The fun is in the journey. Playoffs are a crap shoot. If the Twins make the playoffs they most likely will play the Yankees and the most likely result is that we lose 3-2. Next most likely is that we win 3-2. Third most likely is that we lose 3-1. Fourth most likely is that we win 3-1. You get the drift. If following a team that competes, and by competes, I mean maybe wins and maybe loses upsets you because when losing you find it unacceptable then maybe stop and reflect whether you would be better suited for cheering on the Globetrotters against the Generals. As far as being built for the regular season vs playoffs, there is maybe some validity but mostly it is a crapshoot where players either step up or they don't and either things fall your way or they don't. Kirby wasn't likely to be a playoff hero and the Twins weren't likely to succeed in the playoffs when they won it all but they battled and things went their way. What about the Yankees makes you think they are built for success in the playoffs but we are not? Their best starter has an ERA of 3.96. Everyone else in their rotation has an ERA over 4.2. Believe it or not, even without Pineda we would have a starting pitching statistical advantage over the Yankees.
  21. Dantes929
    In 2006 I remember feeling like I do now about the rotation. We had Santana and a pretty fragile Radke. Baker, Bonser and Garza were all unproven and giving up 4.5-6 runs a game. Everyone said Santana needed to run the table in his last 3 starts for us to have any kind of chance. We lost two of those 3 but still caught Detroit. Pineda going down hurts a lot but its not like we are throwing Dick Bremeer out there. Thorpe and Smeltzer are talented and capable of throwing good games.
  22. Dantes929
    "Now moving on to six more tough games against Washington and Cleveland, the Twins should just go 3-3 again to secure the division." Yes, they should do that but why do you think they will. If the Twins go 3-3 and at least one of those wins is against the Indians then I am with you.
  23. Dantes929
    Exactly.. No guarantee he wins those games and it certainly doesn't guarantee we lose those games without him. Probably has a net effect of a game or so.
  24. Dantes929
    I agree with all but the Graterol part. Its fine if you think the leverage was too high for a guy that fresh and I wouldn't have been against bringing in Dyson instead but everyone gives up runs. Thorpe's wild pitch got the runner in scoring position provoking the intentional walk. Weak ground ball in the right spot and then a sharp Lindor liner that could have been caught. There were lots of ways that frame could have turned out different but thats baseball and I think it kind of silly to come to any conclusions about Graterol based on that performance. I also think Kepler not getting to 2nd on that hit was huge though he obviously never saw it or thought it might be fair. Not sure I have ever seen anything quite like that. Anyway a whole lot of small plays made up that game, some for us and too many against. The guy that beat us was Lindor with his offense and defense and it wasn't the first time and I am guessing it won''t be the last.
  25. Dantes929
    Do we really want a pull shift on a right hand batter when our guy is throwing 98 mph? Ok, I know all the stats must support it but it still stings a little to see a weak grounder directtly at the traditional 2nd baseman position go for a hit and be the difference in the game. Tough game. Cleveland made some nice plays.
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