Dantes929

That's the problem with incomplete information. If the doctors said "Hey he had a shoulder impingement so we are not sure he can throw 180 innings" or "Hey, the guy throws 103 mph and we're not sure he can do that over 180 innings" then they really have no case. If they did an Xray and found out he's been held together by duct tape and WD-40 that's another thing entirely. I guess the assumption is that the Twins haven't hidden anything from his last medical and that he hasn't had any changes since the last pitch. I have always had concerns about his long term value because of how hard he throws which is why I didn't want him throwing 103 mph in the minors. Its wasted there. However, I also recognize he could throw for a long time with no problems. He's just more at risk. Its just weird the way its worded. They are not worried that he can't throw 103 mph for the short term but concerned that he can't throw 150-170 innings. That's the risk part of the reward and on the face of it they look unreasonable. Of course, new info may come out that changes that face.

So absurd! They knew they were getting a prospect that could throw hard and had some shoulder impingement last year. Did they think they were getting Kershaw? The ONLY question health wise is whether or not he can throw right now. Unless something in the off season happened health wise that we don't know about if he can throw right now then neither the Twins or the Red Sox know if he can go 5 innings or 205 innings.

I don't know anyone saying we should have gotten an ace for him. I was hoping for a guy with his exact stats but a couple years younger and doing it in the AL East rather than the NL West. This move makes some of the others less attractive. I didn't want three spots open for the young guys until Pineda gets back but I did want one.

Many on here seem to have an unreasonably low outlook on the chances of even top prospects having any significant future value. They look at guys like Gonsalves, Meyer, Gordon, etc. as support for their outlook. I look at guys like Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Rogers, Garver, etc. along with Hicks, Hendriks and others as support for the idea that top prospects do often work out, given time. Along those lines I have what might be an unreasonable low outlook on mid rotation guys from the National League. Maeda is a tough one. I wish he were a couple years younger, his playoff history is good along with a lot of peripherals but his ERA in inter league play is 4.63 in 19 games. I would just feel better if his 3.87 career ERA was in the AL East. Then I would view him more favorably with Odorizzi. This deal also makes me like the Bailey and Chacin moves less. I really thought Dobnak deserved at least to hold the spot for Pineda. I know some will say he is still competing for it but it never seems to work out that way when signing veteran pitchers.

We should worry about ourselves. Winning major league games and winning division titles is not supposed to be easy and I don't want them to be easy. If the division comes down to the last week and the Twins are in the mix I think it will be a fun season. I am not specifically worried about the White Sox but I still want to beat them no matter how good they are. I would rather beat the White Sox than the Yankees.. Always have. Always will.

I hear a guy hits 100 mph I think arm problems. I hear a guy can hit 100 mph but throws 96 and I think Verlander. Looking forward to good things here.

I would consider his success as SSS if he was just so so in the minors but Dobnak threw over 160 innings last year with a sub 2 ERA over 4 levels mostly AA and AAA. 163 innings isn't real small anymore. That's 26 starts at over 6 innings a game giving up 1.3 runs. Comes down to whether you like strikeouts or run prevention. I prefer run prevention. Not saying Thorpe can't develop into that.

I don't know if they sat back on their laurels but is a point well taken. Lynn, Odo Reed, and Morrison were great signings. You can't control injuries but you also can't control guys playing well. 2018 was more talented than 2017 but played way worse. 2019 was only slightly better than 2018 but played way better. Its not like Musial who used to smile all ST because he knew he would hit .350. We don't have those guys. There is a world of difference between Kepler 2018 and Kepler 2019. People ask how you can keep the same team and expect to be better. The answer if by playing better.

Just looking at it statistically if our offense gives us over 5.5 (still a big if) runs per game and if our bullpen actually performs to the optimistic level many have for it then the rotation as a group only needs to average a 4.5 ERA. to win over 90 with a good shot at the playoffs. I don't stress about the playoffs. Fact is Santana was plenty good enough to win a couple years ago but compounded by a horrible ball call on Gregorius just pitched really bad. Last year the least reason for the Twins playoff failure was the rotation as the offense scored very little, the defense gave up several and the bullpen gave up many. I admit I am more a journey than a destination guy. Playoffs are for drama and for getting hot. The Nationals weren't considered to have much of a chance. They were lucky and then good and then hot.

We have two all star starting pitchers. Why are they not considered impact guys? Both are plenty capable of throwing really good games. I don't love the delay to to get to Hill and Pineda but have no problem giving innings to the young guys. I swear if some on here were running things Blyleven, Viola, Santana, Liriano, Radke, Berrios etc. would never have made the rotation because at one time they were untested young guys. Its not like earlier this decade where guys that didn't really do well in the minors were promoted because there was just no one else. Dobnak and Smeltzer in particular have earned their shot.

Here's a scouting report from two years ago which shows equal grades for a slider and changeup so it is certainly there if only for show. I am not convinced two pitches can't succeed anyway but it looks like he has them. If you look at every level he has pitched there is a direct correlation between walks and ERA. Almost one for one. Walks often reflect lack of control within the zone also. Nothing new here. Tons of pitchers have found control at this stage and become successful. Tons never did find it. Its up to him. Sometimes its confidence and sometimes its just a slight adjustment of something or other. If ever he has a good stretch of 2 or fewer walks/9 that is when I would promote him.

If Cal Ripken had broken a couple toes on a foul ball and then sprained an ankle or broken a leg on a double play they would have called him injury prone. The only question is:. Is he healthy right now?

If he was concussionless I am guessing he would have gotten into the HOF. He was on his way to his 2nd MVP when it happened and who knows what else he could have done. Very fun watching him and Mauer over the years.

I think we also forget how bad replacement level is. If we score 939 runs like we did last year and had a team full of Martin Perez we would give up 829 runs which would still give us a 90 win season. Kind of hard to imagine but those are the numbers. What off season WAR doesn't contemplate is improvement within and giving new guys a shot. Without Donaldson maybe we go with Kiriloff and I don't think his WAR would be neutral.

Wow! I mean thanks for pointing out the studies. I have read studies before and the conclusions have always been non conclusive. I read as much as I could follow of these two but come on. The first study is a study of 2 starters and 5 relievers for a college team and how spring and fall sessions differed.. I really hope the Twins don't rely on your researched? study. The results of the study as far as I can see the more a pitcher throws the more he has soreness? Great study. The 2nd study basically says that X number of pitchers are gong to get hurt in a season, as far as I could tell doesn't really relate to Graterol and says Chapman was more likely to have arm problems than Dickey. Did you really come out of reading those thinking there was factual evidence as it relates to Graterol?

In my opinion he is just as likely to blow out his arm throwing 100mph out of the pen. They can tell themselves they are protecting his arm and it might be the absolute best thing they can do or the absolute worst and anywhere in between. Is throwing 180 innings in 30 starts with a fastball at 96 better or worse than throwing 60 times out of the pen at 101? No way of knowing. Not surprising that throwing over 100 as a starter 5 innings at a time has caused some strain but no real science to back up that either. I was hoping he would start right out of the gate but he should be a significant asset out of the pen. Now we are talking Berrios, Odo, Bailey, Dobnak and Thorpe/Shmeltzer?

First of all I take a bit of issue with the Rondell White signing. It was a great signing at the time. He had a good season the prior year and as USchief used to point out our other option was Jason Tyner at DH. Plenty of upside but what made it bad was White simply had an awful year. So much of what makes great signings is hindsight but it is all up to the player. Morris and Cruz had great years which equals great acquisitions but if they have lousy years then "why do we keep signing washed up veterans?". Rondell White, Tommy Herr, Lance Lynn, Sam Dyson among many others were very good signings. They just turned out poorly for the Twins. As far as Donaldson goes there was talk of him holding out for 110 mil, rumors of him being offered around 100 mil and we end up signing him for 92 mil. Wheeler has never been an all star or had any spectacular years so 100 mil seemed like a bit of overpay but the talk is that is what would sign him. Rumor had it that the Twins offered him that and he ends up signing for 118 mil. Maybe we could have signed him for 130 mil. Is that what we should have offered? How would we know what it takes? Donaldson was asking for 110 mil and there were those here that said we should do the overpay. We ended up giving him 18 mil less than what he asked for and now we are players? Nothing makes sense.

i was a little excited to see Kiriloff at 1st base this year. Now wondering where he can come in or is he held back another year when Cruz is gone?

No mention of Dobnak. All he did was throw 160 innings of sub 2.00 ERA in 2019 over 163 innings between minors and majors.

No guarantees but that is true of everyone new and old alike. Another nice indicator is that he is only 22 but has hit well over .300 at every level over a 6 year career.

"As you can see, most of these players posted career bests in their age-26 season, proving our aging curve discussed above to be an accurate depiction of a pitcher’s career.". I like the article and the stats but I kind of laughed at this. Most of the THREE pitchers sampled PROVED? As pointed out above you left out Cole and also Ryu. Without researching much I am guessing that both those pitchers would have contradicted the thesis. So if included you could say the majority of these 5 players prove the aging curve is inaccurate but that would be just as wrong. Samples of 3 or 5 prove nothing even if they were random. Also , I don't know all the parameters of the graph but I am guessing it is an average of all starting pitchers over a certain period. It is possible to arrive at an average of a group without actually having any one individual having that trajectory. The graph is interesting, relevant and maybe indicative. Personally, I am not all that concerned with whether Berrios is considered an ace or not. Of course it would be nice if he threw up those kinds of numbers but history is littered with the Zito's beating the Santana's of the world in the playoffs. I just want guys capable of throwing gems. Berrios was, is and hopefully continues to be capable.

He's 23 but missed 2 years so I still have high hopes for him. Your #1 point is everything, or at least a lot of things. Pineda walked 1.7 per 9. Berrios was at 2.3. Odorizzi was a little bit of an outfiler but 3 of his best 4 seasons have been when his walk rate was 2.6 or less. Still, our 3 best pitchers had the 3 best walk rates. Walks translate into runs. Walks also indicate you probably have some issues with control inside the zone as well. Get walks down around 2 per 9 and he will be great. If he can't, he won't.

Puckett bunted for hits a lot in the 80's and 90/s . Its a great slump buster. Carew would do just fine in 2020.. For Buxton a bunt single is pretty much the equivalent of a double. There's a place for it and I wish more of the Twins did it. Pitchers and defenses hate it.

Say what you will about Perez. He gave us a very good April and May which helped us get off to a great start and provide some cushion for the later months. I have wanted the 5th spot to go internally to Dobnak and Graterol all along so if Bailey can give us a couple good months early while Pineda is on the shelf and then we get Hill and Pineda we should be in decent shape. Things rarely go according to plan. Maybe Dobnak and Graterol compete for ROY, Bailey and HIll have great seasons and Berrios and Odo tank. For now I am happy we got a little depth.

Like when they say such and such all star is "a great player but even a better human being." What are the odds one of the 100 best baseball players in the world is also one of the 100 best human beings? Nope, Nope, Nope. Not happening.