JDubs

It’s not exactly a bad thing that the Twins will be looking to usher in a new look given they are coming off back-to-back seasons missing the postseason. Last year, the club was decimated by injuries and the year prior, performance left plenty to be desired. Neither of those teams truly had an identity, and it’s something Rocco Baldelli would probably prefer they get back to.
If you’re hoping that Joey Gallo’s signing means Minnesota will blast bombas once again, you’re likely to be disappointed. Sure, the Twins are hoping he can find his swing, but there is positional flexibility and defense to fall back on for the slugger. Carlos Correa returns at shortstop, and while he can manage the lumber, his game is an all around one as well.
Nelson Cruz is going to moonlight as a baseball player for the San Diego Padres, and Miguel Sano is still unemployed. The Bomba Squad was a one-time thing, and looking at this roster, the Twins want their strength to be pitching.
Luis Arraez was sent to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez, not because the pitcher is an ace, but because he lengthens the starting rotation. Sonny Gray has looked the part of a top arm when healthy, and Tyler Mahle could be more than ready to break out if he’s healthy. Kenta Maeda has previously competed for a Cy Young award, and last year’s Opening Day starter in Joe Ryan may be slated to bring up the rear of the rotation.
For the first time in quite a while, the Twins rotation is where much of the investment has been made. Yes, there isn’t a massive free agent contract in the group, but prospect capital such as Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were all utilized to acquire it. Moving on from Arraez wasn’t an easy choice, but the lineup has enough potential to withstand that sort of blow.
You can bet that Baldelli is not hoping to win every game 2-1, but this shouldn’t be a Twins team that needs five runs in order to hold things down. Last season, the difference between scoring three or more runs was drastic, and the hope is that tweaks to the defense can help as well. The outfield may be able to lay claim as baseball’s best defensively, and that will only further help whoever is on the mound.
Bringing back Correa at shortstop was a must, and while Jorge Polanco is not great in the field, Jose Miranda should be better at the hot corner with Alex Kirilloff possessing Gold Glove ability at first base. Fielding will continue to be an area the Twins look to improve in an effort to help the entire pitching staff.
Down the stretch last season, the Twins bullpen made significant strides. Jhoan Duran got all of the praise, but Griffin Jax has emerged as a force, and Jorge Lopez returning to his All-Star form would be a massive high-leverage boost.
Both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, Pete Maki is going to feel confident running arms to the mound. Derek Falvey became synonymous with pitching when working within the Cleveland Guardians organization. This may be the first time since he has been with Minnesota where he can feel confident in what the group on the mound has been built as.
Not every team is going to have an ace, and although the Twins still don’t, they have as good of a group as anyone could hope for. There are different styles that will trot to the mound, but it would not be at all surprising to see that Twins have the best staff, top to bottom, in the division. Start thinking of nicknames if you must, but this group is going to rely on pitching and defense.

Short of Alex Kirilloff not being healthy and failing to open the year at first base for the Minnesota Twins, all eyes should be on second base for Rocco Baldelli. Carlos Correa was brought back to be Minnesota’s shortstop for at least the next handful of years, and he’ll be flanked by both Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco. We don’t yet know how Miranda will hold things down taking over the hot corner for Gio Urshela, but Polanco and his role couldn’t be more under a microscope.
In 2019, as a member of the Bomba Squad, Jorge Polanco was named an All-Star starter and received MVP votes. He blasted a career-best 22 home runs, and his .841 OPS was substantially above what we’d seen to that point. He followed that up with a disappointing 2020 season and then underwent another ankle surgery. In 2021, he rebounded nicely hitting an even better 33 dingers, and his .826 OPS had him again looking like a superstar.
Unfortunately, injury was the theme last year for Polanco, and he played in just 104 games after dealing with knee tendinitis. Recently talking to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, Polanco said, “I don’t feel anything. I think it’s part of the process. It’s why I’m going slow, so I can start building up from there and I start doing more things. Once I start doing that, I think I’ll be ready to go. … I feel good right now. It’s just the plan. We’ve got a plan. I’ve got to get my knee ready. We’re just going with the plan to start slow and build up until I’m ready to play.”
It’s great that he doesn’t feel pain, but it’s not exactly comforting that he’s coming off the season he had and entering the final year of his five-year extension. Polanco will need to be more of what he was in 2019 and 2021 if Baldelli can count on him at second base this year, and availability could be the chief concern.
As Correa now has shortstop locked down into the foreseeable future, it’s Polanco’s second base where any number of prospects could contribute for the Twins. Royce Lewis looked like a big leaguer during his brief cameo last season, and he should be available sometime this summer. Brooks Lee blitzed through the system after being taken in the first round, and Austin Martin focusing on hitting for average again could have him making a short stop at Triple-A as well. Each of those names appears more likely to factor in on the dirt, and taking over for an absent Polanco seems relatively straightforward.
Playing in his age-29 season, Polanco will be looking to put up good numbers heading into free agency. He does have a $10.5 million vesting option with the Twins should he reach 550 plate appearances this year, but that’s not something he’ll sniff if there is any significant amount of missed action. As the Twins look towards the future and must figure out how to shift their infield following the presence of Correa, this year could not be any larger for Polanco.
The front office has the benefit of starting a guy who has shown to compete at a very high level. Polanco has already proven what he’s capable of, but the Twins need to see that return to the forefront immediately in 2023. Each of the depth options behind him will certainly be pushing for their opportunity on the farm, and having realistic options is a great problem to have. Minnesota added to the possibilities earlier this week when they signed veteran Donovan Solano to a one-year deal as well. He could get plenty of run at second base, and has been a starter at the highest level there previously.
Whether Minnesota would prefer for Polanco to be on the Opening Day roster in 2024 remains to be seen, but he can answer a lot of those questions on his own simply by being healthy enough to compete. Polanco hasn’t seen a substantial defensive boost moving to the opposite side of the diamond, and while that isn’t the outcome that was hoped for, his bat can carry him just like it did his predecessor Brian Dozier.
If there is a place on the diamond for Minnesota to have in the front of their minds as they evaluate how to get the best from the roster this season, it will be second base as a reflection of which Polanco is present.

Randy Dobnak was never supposed to make it to the big leagues. His journey began at Alderson-Broaddus University, a Division II baseball program in West Virginia. Despite some impressive numbers, teams didn't draft him after his junior or senior seasons, so he headed to an independent league team called the Utica Unicorns. At the time, Dobnak needed to make ends meet and famously drove Uber to help supplement his baseball salary. His Uber driving story followed him as he drove his way into the Twins organization. 
Minnesota signed him for $500 during the 2017 season, and he made six appearances between rookie ball and Low-A. He posted solid numbers (2.43 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), but he was older than the average age of the competition at both levels. Dobnak pitched the entire 2018 campaign in Cedar Rapids, but one coach changed his career. Justin Willard (now the Twins Minor League Pitching Coordinator) was the pitching coach at the time, and he suggested that Dobnak start throwing a new sinker. Dobnak used the pitch to skyrocket through the Twins organization in 2019. 
Armed with his new sinker, Dobnak pitched at three different minor-league levels in 2019 before making his big-league debut. In 135 minor league innings, he posted a 2.07 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. He was impressive after his call-up by limiting opponents to five earned runs in 28 1/3 innings. In October, the Twins thrust him into the national spotlight by having him start a playoff game at Yankee Stadium. It didn't go well, as he allowed four earned runs on six hits in two innings. Even with a sour ending, it was a tremendous debut. 
It was tough for Dobnak to repeat his 2019 numbers, but he made ten starts in 2020 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Following the season, the Twins signed Dobnak to a five-year extension worth $9.25 million, which includes club options for 2026-28. The deal can be worth nearly $30 million if all three options are exercised. At the time, it was an interesting move by the Twins because Dobnak was going to be under team control for multiple seasons. In hindsight, the deal doesn't look good from the Twins' perspective because Dobnak has been injured over the last two seasons. However, over those two seasons, he made a combined $1.5 million.
Dobnak's finger injury is complex, especially for a pitcher that relies heavily on a sinker. He has ruptured two of the pulleys in his finger, which means he relies on three instead of five. This causes pain and stiffness when he is trying to throw. His rehab process has been frustrating as he attempted to come back before suffering another setback. Dobnak made 11 appearances in the minors last season, but there were some control problems as he learned to pitch through the injury. He posted a 5.8 BB/9, significantly higher than his career average of 2.3 BB/9.
In September, the Twins placed Dobnak on outright waivers to clear his spot from the 40-man roster. His focus for the 2023 campaign is to show he is healthy, and it will be an added bonus if he makes it back to the big-league level. He will start the year at Triple-A, and his pitching repertoire will be altered from what fans have previously seen. His slider and sinker are the two pitches to keep an eye on this spring. Previously, he has thrown his sinker has been his most-used pitch, but that might need to change as he compensates for his injury. His slider was the talk of spring training in 2021 before his finger injury reared its ugly head. Will this pitch be his ticket back to the big leagues?
Do you think Dobnak will return to the big-league level in 2023? What kind of impact can he have on the pitching staff? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Age: 19 (DOB: 2/28/2003)
2022 Stats: (A): 199 PA, .272/.493/.552, 9 HR, 25 RBI
ETA: 2025
2022 Ranking: 16
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: 46 | MLB: 88 | ATH: 48 | BP: 42
 
What's To Like
It's hard to properly explain just how special and stunning Emmanuel Rodriguez's performance was last year in the Florida State League. First, I'll try to set the stage a little bit.
Rodriguez had just turned 19 before the start of the season, and had played a total of 37 professional games, all in 2021 at the rookie-level Florida Complex League. He had played pretty well there, showing a lot of power (.524 SLG) along with a lot of swing-and-miss (36% K-rate, .214 AVG).
He was embarking upon his first full-season campaign in the Florida State League, always known for its pitcher-friendly conditions. (In 2022, FSL hitters posted a .687 OPS overall.) E-Rod was younger than the league's average by two years. He was facing more experienced, more advanced competition. 
Here's what he did, while playing a very solid center field:
In 199 plate appearances, he hit five doubles, three triples, and nine homers with 11 steals, 52 strikeouts, and 57 walks. That last part is worth repeating: 52 K, 57 BB. He cut his problematic K-rate down to an acceptable range while also drawing walks at a truly staggering frequency. Fifty-seven walks (just one "intentional") in 199 plate appearances equates to a 28.6% BB rate. It's a figure so astronomically high it almost defies belief. Juan Soto led the majors at 20.3% last year.
The freakish rate of free passes indicates that Rodriguez has quickly developed both an incredibly keen eye, and a reputation among pitchers as a feared slugger to avoid. He lived up to the latter billing when he got something to hit, slugging .552, and rode all those walks to a .493 on-base percentage. The lefty swinger had a .522 OBP against left-handed pitchers.
Among players with 100+ PA in the FSL, no one was within 80 points of OPS to the teenaged CF Rodriguez, other than a 24-year-old 1B/DH named Jacob Gonzalez.
Rodriguez's breakout season was cut dramatically short by a knee meniscus injury suffered in June, but evaluators have seen enough in the small sample to elevate him into the elite tier of prospects. All four nationals outlets above have the outfielder in their top 100, and three have him in their top 50. 
Baseball America called him "one of the strongest up-arrow candidates" on their list. "He might be a top-10 prospect in baseball by midseason if what we saw last spring holds up," observed The Athletic's Keith Law. 
It's not hard to see where the hype is coming from. And while you couldn't exactly say he came out of nowhere -- the Dominican scored a $2.75 million bonus at age 16 as one of the top talents in the 2019 international class -- he's definitely going somewhere.
What's Left to Work On
There is not a single thing you can quibble with in Rodriguez's brief flash of brilliance last year. Complete all-around dominance. But, that's all it was: a brief flash. Turning 20 later this month, he's got a very sparse track record – just 84 pro games – and a long road ahead to the major leagues.
There are many possible paths forward for the high-upside, high-variance talent. The direction he'll try to steer clear of goes something like this: As he moves up and faces better pitchers (who can better command the strike zone), Rodriguez's patience gives way to passiveness and his K-rate climbs, while the walk rate drops precipitously. Meanwhile, he loses a step after the surgery and keeps adding bulk as he ages into his 20s, forcing a move to a corner outfield spot and raising the bar for his offensive impact.
Even in this scenario, Rodriguez can still pan out as a pretty valuable player, because his power tool is outstanding and there's nothing wrong with a classic slugging right fielder who can run and throw. 
But if Rodriguez can come back healthy at High-A and keep remotely intact the robust skill set we saw on display over two spectacular months in Fort Myers ... he'll likely be viewed among the top prospects in all of baseball by this time next year, following the trajectory of a future MLB superstar.
What's Next
Prospect rankings tend to be all over the place, but there's a stark level of consensus surrounding Rodriguez and his current estimation from the evaluation community. While there was tremendous dissent regarding the top two spots on the list this year (as we'll soon explore), there was none about who should rank #3: all 10 people who voted on Twins Daily's list had Rodriguez here. 
Even as you zoom out to the national 100 prospect rankings, the level of consensus is pretty stunning for a player who was on none of these lists a year ago. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and The Athletic all have E-Rod ranked between 42nd and 48th overall.
We're all seeing the same thing: a highly touted international talent who showed everything you could possibly want to see during an all-too-brief breakthrough in 2022. Now he needs to rebound from the injury, and put together a full season of work. From there, the sky is the limit.
He might not necessarily be the best prospect in the Twins system, but Rodriguez is almost certainly the most exciting, with a ceiling that rivals any promising young player who's ever graced these rankings.
Feel free to discuss E-Rod as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below.
 
Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS
Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP
Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF
Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP
Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Prospect #5: Edouard Julien, 2B
Prospect #4: Marco Raya, RHP
Prospect #3: Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Prospect #2: Coming tomorrow!

Age: 22 (DOB: 1/10/2001)
2022 Stats (Alabama): DNP
ETA: 2025
2022 Ranking: NA

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What's To Like?
Video games have the ability to build players. You get so many attribute points that you can disperse into the creation of a player. Connor Prielipp might be a great example of that player you would build. 
 
Naturally, you'd love to probably make that perfect pitcher 6' 5' and 230 pounds, but you don't want to use too many of your points there, so you make him Prielipp's size (6' 2", 210) to avoid the stigmatism of only being six feet tall. And you make him left-handed because the lefty is always going to get a few more chances than a right-handed pitcher.
Then you start dabbling with pitch-mix. While a 100 mph fastball might be nice, you've realized it's not all about velocity anymore. So you bump that down to the low-to-mid 90s with deceptive movement because you're smart enough to know that the results will be better anyway. Since it's a video game and the only way you're really fooling anyone is with a breaking ball, you take all the attribute points you saved on your (sneaky good) fastball, and put them into your slider. With a speed that nears 90 mph and a spin rate over 2,900 rpm, you've equipped your build-a-prospect with an elite pitch. You're not crazy, so you kept some points to give your guy a change-up because if you're going to make it to The Show as a starter, you need that third pitch.
You also know that through development, you'll get plenty of time to work on the finer points of pitching - control, fastball command, and working on that third pitch. Your ceiling is super high. So high, in fact, that Baseball America has your prospect as their projected #1 starter of your team three years into the future.
That last part isn't even some trick. It's the truth. Connor Prielipp has the tools and potential to be the real deal.
What's Left to Work On
Yeah, so what I didn't tell you was you got extra attribute points because I saddled your build-a-prospect with a few less-than-ideal traits.
Connor Prielipp has a "grew up in the cold of the midwest" background. The track record of those types isn't long or great. While Wisconsin isn't a hotbed for pitchers, it's not a death wish either. There are actually three pitches in the Hall of Fame who were born in Wisconsin. (So what they were all born in the 1800s?) And Brad Radke too! It's entirely possible that baseball hasn't advanced to the point (yet) to realize that beer and cheese are actually what helps pitchers develop. But, whatever, Wisconsin is great. So are the people.
The biggest question mark about Connor Prielipp is his left elbow. Between the COVID shutdown and Tommy John surgery, Prielipp threw a grand total of 28 innings over seven starts since graduating from high school. At a minimum that will make you pause. At a maximum, you realize this prospect is almost entirely about projection.
Because while the tools are present, there is no track record; no sustained success. So there's literally nothing to not work on.
What's Next
To throw. In a game. To live hitters of another team.
Prielipp participated in Instructional League, which, to my knowledge has taken on a more development-type camp than game-play. But for all intents and purposes, there were no setbacks and he was full-go.
With the restructuring of the minor league system and what I'm sure will be a slow play to increase innings, it would be hard to believe that Prielipp will be throwing every five days all season. What would make sense is a slow build-up, staying in Ft. Myers after the teams break to keep working his way back. A piggyback approach where he throws three innings regularly and throws 60-65 innings between low-A and high-A over the course of the year would make a ton of sense. If the development stays on track and the arm stays healthy, maybe there's a discussion to open it up a little more for a late-season promotion to Wichita. 
The Twins can and absolutely should do everything they can to develop Prielipp into an important member of their big-league starting rotation, but that's going to require a ton of patience and good health.
And if those things happen, Prielipp isn't the Twins #7 prospect next year. He's going to be a Top 20 prospect globally.
Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect 10 (Austin Martin)
Prospect 9 (Louie Varland) 
Prospect 8 (Jose Salas) 
 
   

The human brain is fantastic, but it doesn't have the power to consider everything. For example, before you read this sentence, you ignored that you could see your nose. Your mind had been ignoring that because it's not essential.
Cognitive psychologists refer to our brains' shortcuts as heuristics or cognitive biases. There's nothing wrong with them, but they're important to remember. They play a part in the way we watch sports.
There are popular shortcuts that many people know about, such as anchoring, where we tend to base our opinions on something more in a first impression than information we learn later. I won't name names, but some schmucks may still think Miguel Sanó could be an MVP based solely on his 2015 rookie campaign.
Confirmation bias leads us to latch on to evidence that supports our preconceived notions over evidence against them. Perhaps another person supports their disdain for Miguel Sanó because of his many strikeouts, ignoring his 500-foot moonshots.
If this stuff interests you, check out this very approachable list of a few dozen different biases and heuristics). There's a well-known bias that explains what I'm going to discuss, so I'll dip into developmental psychology for this discussion.
Two episodes from the last year or so stand out to me when I think about how our brains consume sports, not so much because of what happened, but because of people's reactions.
1. After a disappointing 73-89 2021 season, owner Jim Pohlad gave the front office an A+ grade. 
2. During the 2022 season, the Twins were not completely transparent about Byron Buxton 's schedule as he worked through knee pain.
In both episodes, fans and media were in the streets wailing and gnashing their teeth. Both instances were frustrating, but were they worth the consternation they received?
One of the points in an infant's growth that developmental psychologists have identified is the development of object permanence. If you've ever played peek-a-boo with an infant, you will have seen it in action. When the adult's face hides behind the hands, then reappears, the infant gets excited because, before the face reappears, they didn't think it existed anymore.
Infants struggle to understand that things they don't see can still exist. It is a bit wild to think about. Sometimes I'm, as an adult, convinced that I don't own buffalo sauce until my wife points out the bottle in the fridge and the bottle next to it from the last time I didn't think we had any.
But enough about buffalo sauce, how does object permanence pertain to what I'm talking about here?
In the first example, many fans took Jim's comments to mean that he genuinely had no issues with how the season went and was perfectly pleased. Because this was, for the most part, the amount of information fans had to go off of, it seemed like his complete thoughts on the topic.
We, as fans, are not privy to the conversations behind closed doors between an owner and upper management of the team. Heck, others in baseball operations aren't made aware of every conversation. We can forget that.
Instead, we latch on to the soundbite and forget that the group is constantly communicating for the other 364 days a year, working toward their shared goals. Because we don't see it, though, it doesn't exist.
Please don't read this as me saying that there shouldn't be criticism of the group. We sometimes pay too much attention to the tiny bits of interaction with which we are privileged.
The second example, regarding Bryon's knee, is a bit more egregious. Following his knee flair-up in Boston last April, his presence in the lineup was a bit scattershot, which was obviously frustrating for fans—if for no other reason than that fans want to see the best players play.
However, there was a common attitude that Byron's seemingly haphazard presence in the lineup was evidence that there was "no plan" for him to play. Why? Because the team did not make any statement on his status on a day-to-day basis.
In reality, the team was monitoring his knee and its pain and range of motion daily—adjusting whenever needed. It makes sense that no team personnel would make an official statement regarding his expectations because the situation was developing.
This lack of information led some fans to see the handling as incompetent, and they believed that the team lacked a plan for getting him back out there.
Instead, behind the scenes, Buxton spent hours every day working on getting his body ready to compete. His situation was fluid, and the team was adapting to new information daily. But we, as fans, had no explicit information telling us this, so instead, because we couldn't see it, our brains told us that nothing was happening.
Perhaps there's an argument that teams should be more forthcoming with information so that fans can make more informed reactions. Still, we would have blind spots that our brains would fill in.
It's important to remember that pro sports are filled with professionals working full-time jobs. The people on the other side of the glass spend their entire days making decisions about the team that we watch for four hours a day with a rain delay. They want to win more than you want them to (with minimal exceptions).
If we fall into the trap of believing that what we see in press conferences or public statements is the entirety of the situation, our opinions can become relatively uninformed.
Some people may be incompetent at their jobs and worthy of criticism, but that criticism should be based on what we can observe rather than the gaps our brains fill in. Remember that even if we don't see it, things are happening.

Earlier this week, Seth Stohs took a dive into the deeper end of the Minnesota Twins system, highlighting players who finished in the 21-30 range of our voting tabulation, and honorable mentions who fell just outside that threshold. (For what it's worth, note that Luis Arraez was once found in these very same outside ranks of our lists and others. And he's only one fresh-in-mind example.)
With that said, the odds of an MLB future start to increase as we break into the top 20 of our list. In this group of five, representing Twins Daily's choices for the organizations 16th-through-20th best prospects of 2023, we find an intriguing mix of untapped promise and fading high-end upside.
20. Misael Urbina, OF
Age: 20
2022 Stats: 263 PA, .247/.323/.407, 5 HR, 27 RBI
He was the Twins' big-money signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, scoring a $2.75 million bonus, but four years later he hasn't played a game above Low-A. That's how it can go for players that sign as extremely raw talents at age 16 (especially with a lost COVID season mixed in). Through it all he still won't reach legal drinking age until this April.
Urbina's outstanding tools remain intact but he needs to start backing them up with production in order to keep his prospect status from fading. Thus far he has a .228/.326/.359 slash line as a pro.
19. Jose Rodriguez, OF
Age: 17
2022 Stats (Rookie): 219 PA, .290/.361/.605 , 13 HR, 49 RBI
Typically speaking, when teenage players sign from another country and head to the States to play pro ball, it takes a little while to acclimate and warm up. You'll often see meager results in short-season debuts for players who go on to accomplish a great deal. Rodriguez broke the mold after he signed last summer and joined the Twins' affiliate in the Dominican Summer League.
He wasn't the most high-profile player acquired in Minnesota's 2022 international signing class, which helped make his spectacular showing on the field so jarring. Rodriguez posted a jaw-dropping .966 OPS and led the short-season league with 13 homers in 55 games. He was an absolute slugging machine and it's scary to think how that might evolve as he ages. The stellar showing earned him Twins Daily's nod as short-season hitter of the year.
"Rodriguez’s exit velocities may have been even more impressive than his homer total," wrote Aaron Gleeman, who is higher than most on the prospect, ranking him 13th on his list. "He destroyed the ball, in an environment where that isn’t supposed to take place."
So far, so very good. And the strikeout/walk rates are promising for future development. But Rodriguez has a long way to go, as a player from a mold that has high burnout rates. He's a candidate to fly up these rankings with a reinforcing 2023 campaign.
18. Tanner Schobel, 2B
Age: 21
2022 Stats (Rookie/A): 136 PA, .242/.367/.303, 1 HR, 11 RBI
The Twins snagged Schobel in the second round of last year's draft out of Virginia Tech, where he emerged as a slugging shortstop to boost his appeal. After signing him to a $1 million bonus the Twins him to get his feet wet in Low-A. There, Schobel's power evaporated.
Following a 19-homer outburst in the college season, Schobel managed just one home run in 120 plate appearances at Fort Myers, producing a mere .303 slugging percentage. He did, however, show good plate discipline with a 23-to-18 K/BB ratio while swiping seven bags.
The power drop-off and move from short to second keep Schobel's helium in check, leading to a lower ranking than you'd normally see from such a highly-drafted prospect in the latest class. But there are some Brian Dozier parallels here, and he's the poster child for late-blooming middle infield power. 
17. Ronny Henriquez, RHP
Age: 22
2022 Stats (AAA): 95.1 IP, 5.66 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 
The Twins were excited to get Ronny Henriquez as an addition to Isiah Kiner-Falefa in last offseason's Mitch Garver trade. They viewed him as underrated addition to their pitching pipeline, capable of racking up strikeouts and moving quickly to the majors.
They were correct on those two counts. Henriquez tallied 106 strikeouts in 95 innings at Triple-A, and reached the majors in September at age 22, posting a 2.31 ERA in three appearances.
data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== With the goods news out of the way, he also allowed a 5.66 ERA at St. Paul, coughing up 19 homers and 33 walks in those 95 innings. Some changes in pitch usage could help Henriquez take the final step to fulfill his potential, and that'll probably start with moving him to full-time relief duty. The righty made 14 starts for the Saints last year among 24 appearances. Don't sleep on him as a significant factor in Minnesota's bullpen this year.
16. Jordan Balazovic, RHP
Age: 24
2022 Stats (AAA): 70.2 IP, 7.39 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9
What was supposed to be Balazovic's breakthrough year turned into a total breakdown. From start to finish it was an abject disaster. He was all over the place, utterly hittable when in the zone, and incredibly home run prone. Virtually every start unraveled on the big right-hander, at least up until a decent final month softened his landing at season's end.
There were reports of a bothersome knee issue, but Balazovic was healthy enough to avoid the injured list following his late start, so this seems more an issue of mechanics and execution. The reason he remains as high as he does in our ranks is because Balazovic had elevated himself to such a level prior to this lost season. 
Bad as it was, it's only one season, and the 24-year-old still has time to get (at least somewhat) back on track to recapture the form that made him arguably the system's best pitching prospect prior. Over the past three years he's ranked fourth, sixth, and fifth on this list. 
 
Feel free to discuss these prospects and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below. I will try to get to as any of them as I can. 
For more Twins Daily content on these ten Twins prospects, click on the link with their name here: Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, Tanner Schobel, Jose Rodriguez, Misael Urbina. 
Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20 
Prospects 11-15 - Coming Soon! 

For the first time, Twins Daily is now sharing our choices for the Top 30 Twins prospects. In reality, it's just one more article for you to read as we are including prospects 21-30 today. It is really an interesting mix of prospects in this range, which isn't surprising. There are several prospects who are very young in their careers. These are players with lots of tools and potential, but a long, long way to go before even approaching the big leagues. There are a couple of pitchers who had exciting 2022 seasons that catapulted themselves to this level, but they were previously lesser known so some weren't willing to push them any higher. As you would also expect, there are some minor leagues who were once Top 20, and even Top 10, prospects and whether it be injury or performance, they have dropped down the rankings. They still have the talent and at least one took that will need to carry them to an opportunity. 
Twins prospects ranking between 21-30 in our series highlights a dynamic group of players, some brimming with upside and others with higher-perceived floors. Let's break them down. 
30. OF Byron Chourio 
Age: 17
2022 (DSL Marlins): 51 games, .344/.429/.410 (.838), 9-2B, 1-HR, 12.4% K, 11.5% BB
Just one year ago, the Marlins signed a 16-year-old Chourio from Merida, Venezuela, for $200,000. He stands 6-2 and weighs about 175 pounds. He had a very impressive professional debut in 2022 with the Marlins’ DSL team. He hit for average, got on base, showed good bat-to-ball skills, and showed doubles power. He also stole 19 bases in 26 attempts. He played 20 games in center field, 19 games in right field, and three games in left field. He has a strong arm. The Twins acquired him as a flyer in the Arraez/Lopez trade recently. Jose Salas is the top prospect, but Chourio is equally intriguing. As I like to say, he was impressive in the DSL, but that is six promotions from the big leagues. Chourio is certainly filled with athleticism and tools that should excite Twins fans. 
29. 1B Aaron Sabato 
Age: 23
2022 (A+/AA): 103 games, .215/.336/.438 (.774), 17 2B, 22 HR, 4/5 SB, 32% K, 13% BB
The Twins were excited to select Sabato with the 27th overall pick out of North Carolina where he put up numbers very similar to those of Spencer Torkelson. He really struggled in his pro debut in 2021. He hit just .189 in 85 games in Ft. Myers but came on strong after a late-season promotion to Cedar Rapids where he added eight homers in 22 games. That’s where he began the 2022 season. In 80 games, he hit .226 with 13 doubles and 17 homers. He moved up to Wichita for 23 games late in the season and hit .179 with four doubles and five homers before his season ended with a fastball to his wrist. To this point, he has not hit for average. However, he does walk a lot. He has immense power, so when he does make quality contact, he has the ability to hit the ball a long way. The problem is that he has had trouble making contact, especially on good fastballs. He has become a decent defensive first baseman. He should start 2023 at Wichita and will continue to get opportunities, including another spring training invitation. 
28. OF Kala’i Rosario 
Age: 20
2022 (A): 109 games, .239/.320/.408 (.727), 21 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 32.5% K, 8.1% BB
In the five-round 2020 draft, Rosario was the team’s fifth-round pick out of high school in Waiakea, Hawaii. He was one of the most powerful prep bats in that draft. He debuted with 51 games in the FCL in 2021 and hit .277 with 10 doubles, four triples, and five home runs. As a 19-year-old in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, his overall numbers may not look exciting, but he was productive and provided some extra base power. However, with that power comes a lot of strikeouts, something that he will need to continue working on as he moves up the organizational ladder. Rosario played both corner outfield positions with about two-thirds of that time in right field. He has good speed and plays average defense. He’s got an average arm for right field. He’s very young for the level, so he could repeat in the FSL in 2023, though it would be great if he can spend some time in Cedar Rapids as well. 
27. INF Yunior Severino 
Age: 23
2022 (A+/AA): 83 games, .278/.370/.536 (.907), 17 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 25.9% K, 11.1% BB
Twice a top international signing, Severino has slowly worked his way up the Twins system. He began 2022 where he ended the 2021 season, in Cedar Rapids. In 46 games, he hit .283/.398/.572 (.970) in 46 games and hit nine doubles and 11 homers. He missed significant time with an injury but when he returned he was soon promoted to Double-A Wichita where he played 37 games. In that time, he hit .273/.338/.497 (.834) with eight doubles and eight homers. He does strike out more than you could like, but he also has a strong on-base percentage thanks to a lot of walks. At Cedar Rapids, he primarily played second base. Once he moved up to Wichita (and Christian Encarnacion-Strand was traded), Severino spent most of his time at third base. While he lacks plus-range, he does make most of the plays. He should start the 2023 season with the Wind Surge where at 23, he’ll be about a year younger than the average player. 
26. SS Bryan Acuna 
Age: 17
2022 (DSL Twins): 43 games, .310/.409/.393 (.803), 12 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 21.1% K, 11.7% BB
You can’t help but start with the Acuna genetics. Ronald Acuna Sr. played in the New York Mets organization from 1999 through 2004. He then spent one season each with the Blue Jays and Brewers organizations. In 2005, Bryan was born in Manchester, New Hampshire, the Double-A home of the Blue Jays. Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. was the NL Rookie of the Year as a 20-year-old in 2018 and has been an All-Star in three of the past four years. 20-year-old Double-A shortstop Luisangel Acuna was just added to the Rangers 40-man roster. 
Bryan Acuna signed with the Twins last January from Venezuela for $950,000 and made his pro debut in 2022 in the DSL. His overall numbers look solid, including an OPS over .800. That is more impressive when you consider that in his first 11 games, he went 2-for-30 with 13 strikeouts in 37 plate appearances (35%). That also means that over his final 32 games, he hit .368/.455/.465 (.919) with 11 of his 12 doubles, and he struck out just 17% of the time. While maybe not to the same level as his All-Star brother, Bryan Acuna does have a lot of tools. He played in 42 games at shortstop and had 13 errors. He’s got work to do defensively. He had no homers, but his 12 doubles show that the power could come too. He should come to the States in 2023 and play in the FCL.  
25. LHP Brent Headrick 
Age: 25
2022 (A+/AA): 23 starts (25 G), 108 1/3 IP, 3.32 ERA, 31% K, 6.1% BB
Headrick was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2019 out of Illinois State University where he pitched for former Twins catcher Steve Holm. Like most minor leaguers, he did not pitch in 2020. He made 15 appearances for the Mighty Mussels in 2021 and posted a 3.82 ERA. In 61 1/3 innings, he walked 33 batters, but he struck out 86 batters. In 2022, he made 15 starts with Cedar Rapids and went 8-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. In 65 1/3 innings, he had just 13 walks to go with 77 strikeouts. He moved up to Double-A, and after a rough first outing (7 runs on 10 hits in 2 1/3 innings), he posted a 3.54 ERA and had 57 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings. Following the season, he was a pretty easy addition to the Twins 40-man roster.
24. INF Danny De Andrade 
Age: 18
2022 (FCL Twins): 48 games, .242/.333/.371, 9 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 4/6 SB, 13.5% K, 7.5% BB
De Andrade signed with the Twins out of Venezuela in January 2021 for a $2.2 million bonus. He spent that summer in the DSL where he hit .264/.340/.348 (.688) with 13 doubles and a triple in 50 games. He came to the States in 2022 and played most every day. He made 32 starts at shortstop and 13 more at third base. He is a solid defender with good range, soft hands and a strong arm. Offensively, he’s a work-in-progress. He is an aggressive hitter with a strong swing and good bat-to-ball skills. There is potential for some power. He could spend the 2023 with the Mighty Mussels, which is likely to present a major challenge for him offensively, so don’t be surprised if he repeats the level as he will be very young. 
23. RHP Cole Sands 
Age: 24
2022 (AAA): 19 games (13 GS), 61 2/3 IP, 5.55 ERA, 25.4% K%, 8.5% BB%
2022 (MIN): 11 games (3 GS), 30 2/3 IP, 5.87 ERA, 19.3% K%, 9.0% BB% 
Sands represented Team USA events in high school. He was drafted but chose to attend Florida State University. Three years later, he was the Twins fifth-round pick in 2018. That next season, he pitched at three levels, ending the year with one Double-A start. He didn’t pitch in 2020, and in 2021, he posted a 2.46 ERA at Double-A Wichita. He had 96 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings. Moving up to Triple-A in 2022, he maintained his strikeout rate and actually reduced his walk rate. However, as you can see above, he gave up a lot of runs. It was an inconsistent year for Sands. He was promoted and optioned several times throughout the season, and also spent a couple of stints on the injured list. Is he a starter or reliever? There are a lot of similarities in terms of stuff between Sands and Tyler Duffey. Sands sits in the low-90s with his fastball but can touch 95. He also has a couple of very nice, albeit inconsistent,  breaking balls. As we saw with Duffey, that can be very valuable. He would not be the first player to struggle in his big-league debut, learn from it, and have some level of success. With the Twins pitching depth, will he get that opportunity? 
22. RHP Blayne Enlow 
Age: 23
2022 (AA): 24 games (10 starts), 57 1/3 IP, 4.40 ERA, 24.8% K, 11.6% BB
Another Team USA alum, Enlow was the Twins third-round pick in 2017 out of high school in Louisiana when they met his signing bonus request to keep him from LSU. It was a slow-go for Enlow early in his career. Like many, Enlow did not pitch in 2020. He returned to Cedar Rapids (now a High-A affiliate) in 2021, but just three starts into the season, he hurt his elbow and had Tommy John surgery in June. Enlow worked hard through his rehab, and in November 2021, he was added to the 40-man roster. He returned to the mound in May 2022, 11 months after surgery, and made one rehab appearance for Ft. Myers before heading up to Double-A Wichita. He made 10 starts and 14 relief appearances. He went 1-3 and had three saves. He was clearly working to get back his form. He walked 30 batters in 57 1/3 innings, well over his ‘normal’ walk rate. That is a number he can reduce quite a bit. He also struck out 64 batters which showed that the stuff was still there. Recently, the front office took the risk of placing him on waivers, but he cleared and was outrighted to the minors. While not necessarily great, it might be exactly what he and the Twins need. It might take some of the pressure off of him in 2023 and he can just work on things. With a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a solid breaking ball and an improving change up, Enlow has potential. Again, will that be as a starter or as a reliever? We shall see. (As you can see in the video below, right before his elbow injury, Enlow was dealing, with all of his pitches.)
21. LHP Jaylen Nowlin 
Age: 22
2022 (A/A+): 22 games (14 starts), 71 IP, 3.80 ERA, 36.0% K%, 11.6% BB%
Yet another late-round steal by the Twins scouting department, it appears. Nowlin was the Twins 19th round pick out of Chipola College. He attended Westlake High School in Atlanta with A’s prospect Lawrence Butler. In the summers, he played with Braves outfielder Michael Harris. He pitched in just one FCL game in 2021, but he made his mark at Fall Instructional League when the southpaw was touching 97 mph with a fastball and showing a solid slider as well. He carried that into the 2022 season. He began at Ft. Myers where he went 4-4 with a 3.65 ERA. In 56 ⅔ innings, he walked 29, but he struck out 89 batters. He moved up to the Kernels late in the season and made three starts. He was 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA. In 14 1/3 innings, he walked seven but struck out 22 batters. Overall, that is 11 strikeouts in 71 innings, a rate of 14.1 K/9. Clearly he will need to improve his control and command, but the Twins can be patient with him and should be because he has immense talent, he just needs to keep improving. 
Feel free to discuss these prospects and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below. I will try to get to as any of them as I can. 
For more Twins Daily content on these ten Twins prospects, click on the link with their name here: Jaylen Nowlin, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands, Danny De Andrade, Brent Headrick, Bryan Acuna, Yunior Severino, Kala'i Rosario, Aaron Sabato, Byron Chourio. 
Previous Installments
Honorable Mention
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20 - Coming Soon!
Prospects 11-15

What Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are betting on is that winning will matter most.
There is no denying that Luis Arraez is a good baseball player. He was an All-Star while winning a Silver Slugger and being crowned the American League batting champion in 2022. His .316 average and .375 on-base percentage were noteworthy, and he posted those numbers while transitioning to an entirely new position.
When the Twins re-signed Carlos Correa this offseason, he was reunited with an infield he got to know last year. Arraez was his first baseman, and the group with Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco became friends. It was a tight-knit infield, and moving on from any of them would bring up a few hurt feelings.
What Correa wants to do, however, is win, and that’s where the front office is focused as well.
It’s not as though the Twins couldn’t win with Arraez, but they certainly have more options at first base than they do in the starting rotation. Pablo Lopez was acquired not to be an ace but instead to fill a need to stock the starting five with as many quality arms as possible. With Lopez raising the bar and providing more pitching depth, it should be expected that Minnesota’s chances go up for the season.
When it was announced that Arraez was being dealt to the Miami Marlins, many fans would miss their batting champion. The last time a reigning batting champ was dealt came at the hands of Minnesota as well, when Rod Carew was sent to the Angels before the 1979 season. Having been fondly compared to each other and being someone incredibly easy to root for, a departure of Arraez was never going to sit well with many.
Entering the 2023 season, Lopez needs to pitch well for the sake of doing so and will forever be connected as the guy Minnesota acquired in giving up Arraez. Fans didn’t need to view Arraez through the same lens as they did Willians Astudillo. The former is a good player with actual utility, whereas the latter was much more of a mascot to distract from poor play. The casual fan may have ventured out to the ballpark wanting to see Arraez, and maybe they’ll stay away scorned at his departure. What has to matter most is generating as many wins as possible.
The Twins need to be both exciting and good at the same time. Eighty-one home games is a substantial amount, and the Twins look to pull as much as possible from ticket sales. There has never been a more affordable sport to watch in person than baseball, yet a team with Arraez and Correa last season wasn’t enough to break records. Wanting to flip the script on another losing season, figuring out a way to push the win total up is where Minnesota knows the money is.
As the 2023 Major League Baseball season gets underway, many fans will still be disappointed that Arraez isn’t in the dugout or taking the field. When the dust settles in October, plenty more fans will have shown up to a team that is committed to winning and puts the right foot forward on a nightly basis.
It’s never easy for a front office to trade a fan favorite, but Minnesota is not Pittsburgh dealing in only goodwill. This team can be good, and when Correa throws over to Alex Kirilloff in securing a postseason victory, everyone will have forgotten about what was while enjoying what is.

It may seem like just yesterday that Joe Mauer donned his catching equipment one last time before saying farewell to a roaring Target Field crowd. But it’s now been five years since his 2018 retirement, meaning the lifelong Twin is eligible for Baseball’s Hall of Fame.
And for the most miserable bastards in Minnesota, it couldn’t come soon enough.
“As much as I hate to admit it, I’ve missed him since he retired,” said Tom Hanson, 58. The Anoka resident and classic North Metro redass has been banned from every social media website ever created. “He’s the worst baseball player I’ve ever seen and he should be in jail for stealing money from hard-working Minnesotans. But all the same, I’ve missed sending angry emails about him to our bought-and-paid-for local media shills.”
Hanson, who is no longer welcome in the IHOP family of breakfast restaurants, foresees a multi-year campaign against the former American League MVP.
“The first year, I expect the baseball writers to step up and keep him out because they do that to good players, too,” said Hanson. “Patriots will do the heavy lifting after that. A sustained barrage of complaints to talk radio, comments left in newspaper comment sections, skywriting. My stepson who no longer talks to me does raps on the internet, it would be nice to bring him into the fold if (ex-fourth wife) Bonnie would quit being such a [INCREDIBLY VILE EXPLETIVE].”
Hanson isn’t alone.
“All I know is players used to play hurt or they didn’t play,” said Bruce Schafer, 62, of Dayton. “Mauer didn’t even play when he was healthy and now the woke mob wants me to act like he’s a Hall of Famer? Hell no.”
Schafer, who frequently shares inaccurate stories about vaccine efficacy and Barack Obama’s long-form birth certificate on Facebook, said the opportunity to set the record straight about the three-time batting champ is one he welcomes.
“This is like Christmas and the 4th of July all in one,” said the unloved man. “There are kids out there who’ve never heard the term ‘bilateral leg weakness’ used to mock someone with a brain injury. Just another example of cancel culture going too far.”

Last year, some of the best baseball players ever (Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens) went unelected in their final year on the Hall of Fame ballot. As we know, they were heavily tied to steroids, and that is certainly the reason they are not in. However, the Hall of Fame is a museum and incomplete without acknowledging the sport’s history as a whole. We still don’t have Pete Rose or "Shoeless" Joe Jackson in, and there are plenty of others who have been left out over the years.
One can argue whether they would like to see those linked to some form of cheating left out, but the reality is that there are far worse or more egregious offenders already inducted. What should be a cause for concern among Twins fans is the way in which the process played out this season.
Coming into this voting cycle, only Carlos Beltran was among the first-time candidates that had any true level of Hall Hope. His support has waned in light of the scandal with the Houston Astros (although, again, that has nothing to do with his playing days), but his resume was always going to be borderline. That left only Scott Rolen and Todd Helton as potential inductees.
With the ability to select up to ten players, there were plenty of BBWAA members that turned in blank ballots. Rather than abstain from voting at all, multiple writers went to the trouble of turning in an empty ballot to make every candidate’s chances worse. There were far more that used less than the ten total slots, and plenty that used less than five.
Fast forward to 2024.
The two Hall of Famers from next year’s ballot should be Adrian Beltre and Joe Mauer. It is generally believed that Beltre will make the ballot in his first year of eligibility. The problem is that Mauer is not seen in the same way.
For years, it has seemed as though the Twins fanbase was hardest on Mauer. Whether because of a terribly-reported diagnosis of bilateral leg weakness, an inability to blast home runs, or a contract that paid him for previous performance, there have always been detractors here. It seems that nationally Mauer has been praised a bit more. He’s on par with a player like Buster Posey, and he could have challenged the likes of Mike Piazza or even Carlton Fisk without the brain injuries that altered the course of his career.
Mauer’s resume speaks for itself. He’s won multiple batting titles and should have won a Gold Glove at first base following a position change (still mad at you Eric Hosmer). There doesn’t seem to be a concern that Mauer is NOT a Hall of Famer, but rather when he gets in.
 
Therein lies the problem, a process that’s broken within the writers voting on behalf of the BBWAA.
If Helton and Rolen were seen as the only two candidates close, and Beltre is only joined by Mauer next year, there is no reason both shouldn’t be in on the first ballot. To suggest that the quickness with which a player goes in holds weight is silly. A good portion of when a player is elected has to do with how tight the ballot itself is.
There has not yet been enough support for Billy Wagner. Jeff Kent falls off after this season, and Gary Sheffield would need a massive jump in his final year. Despite being among the best ever to play the game, no one is voting for Alex Rodriguez.
It’s only logical that if a writer believes that Joe Mauer is truly a Hall of Famer, and said writer has up to ten openings, he would be among them.
For writers of the BBWAA to purposely leave Mauer off of a light ballot only to vote for him a year later would be grandstanding at its best. The sanctity of going in on the first ballot gets more weight than the merit of a player’s resume. It has been discussed before that changing the ballot to a simple yes/no scenario may make sense, but that exercise can be practiced in its current format given how few should truly be considered.
On a night that MLB Network took up three hours of airtime to market the stars of yesteryear, the writers fell short in getting the necessary names in. Helton should get his due next season, but like Mauer, waiting doesn't make sense. Fast forwarding to the next cycle and knowing we’re in for another light group, it would be inexcusable to leave the Twins legend off for little more than posturing.

The 2022 Minnesota Twins team was ravaged by injuries, which ultimately led to the team's demise. One area of the team that was affected as much, if not more, than any other unit was the starting pitching rotation. Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Tyler Mahle all suffered severe injuries that led to minimal availability. Even Sonny Gray found himself banged up more often than the team would've liked.
The Twins’ rotation prior to the trade was Gray, Mahle, Joe Ryan, Maeda, Ober. On paper, this rotation looks to be reasonably solid one through five, but with the recent injury history of most of the staff, it left Twins fans, and likely the front office, holding their breath. The Twins also have a few arms close to the majors, such as Josh Winder, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods Richardson , but they likely want to avoid pivoting to young arms as often as they did in 2022.
For depth purposes, the Twins were interested in adding one more top-of-the-rotation pitcher. The problem is, those don't typically grow on trees and can cost a pretty penny to pry one away from a team willing to deal. Luckily for the Twins, they had depth in another area they were willing to dip into to acquire a solid starting pitcher.
After signing Carlos Correa, the Twins have put together a pretty impressive list of controllable hitters who gave them leverage on the trade market. I have listed below the Twins hitters on the 40-man roster who are set to compete for limited at-bats this summer. I also included the player's value according to BaseballTradeValues.com in descending order. Baseball Trade Values uses a scale to track every player's worth based on controllability, contract, and production.
Jorge Polanco 2B ($34.8M)
Luis Arraez 1B/DH ($26.6M)
Jose Miranda 3B ($26.4M)
Royce Lewis SS/OF ($22.7M)
Trevor Larnach OF ($14.6M)
Byron Buxton CF ($13.5M)
Ryan Jeffers C ($13M)
Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF ($11.9M)
Max Kepler OF ($7.6M)
Matt Wallner OF ($7.3M)
Carlos Correa SS ($7M)
Nick Gordon UTIL ($6.7M)
Gilberto Celestino OF ($1.8M)
Joey Gallo OF ($1.2M)
Kyle Farmer UTIL ($0.4M)
Christian Vázquez C (-14.2M)
To put these numbers into perspective, Pablo López has an estimated value of $38.8M.
The list above features 16 players who have either played a significant role for the Twins or will play a role this year. As it stands, with this many quality hitters, there are not enough at-bats to go around. The depth is excellent, but the Twins could capitalize on this depth by trading it for a solid starting pitcher. The Twins could have piece together many packages by agreeing to part ways with one or two of these players.
Arraez made a lot of sense to move in a large package for a frontline starter. While Arraez brings a fire to the game that is fun to watch, he is not without his flaws. The only defensive position he has shown to be above-average at is first base, and few teams are willing to commit to a first baseman who doesn't exhibit any power. With Arraez's lengthy injury history, there's a good chance his value will never be higher, making him a reasonable trade prospect.
There are many ways the Twins could have finished off the off-season, but it was paramount that they do all they could to add to their rotation. With the depth of Major League-ready hitters at their disposal, the Twins were able to turn a somewhat expendable pieces into a frontline starter who adds tremendous value to this team the way it is constructed.  
What are your thoughts? Should the Twins have traded a bat for an arm? Who would you have parted with? Should they consider doing something similar for a reliever? Let me know! As always, Go, Twins!

Last season for the Marlins, Pablo López posted a 3.75 ERA along with a 3.71 FIP. He’s jumped his strikeouts over one per inning in the past three seasons and continues to develop as a pitcher. His changeup is noteworthy, and his velocity sits in the mid-90s. Having debuted as a 22-year-old in 2018, he’s just entering his age-27 season.
Minnesota has seemingly been in a never-ending quest for quality starting pitching. After acquiring Cincinnati Reds starters Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle last year, the rotation as a whole grew stronger at the top. While Joe Ryan did start on Opening Day, he projects to slot in as a more middle-to-back-end type of arm. The Twins also will return veteran Kenta Maeda this season, and they have depth in the form of Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, and Simeon Woods Richardson.
The goal for Derek Falvey this offseason was to acquire a talent that met the Gray-threshold. Ideally,
Rocco Baldelli needs another arm that can pitch in a short playoff series and be trusted to get the job done. While it may be debatable how close they truly are, López can certainly be that guy.
Like the Twins did at the deadline, their goal in acquiring arms has been to avoid rentals. They would like to have time to work with pitchers and unlock whatever ceiling is seen for each individual. López is under two more years of team control via arbitration and is projected to make just over $5 million this year per MLB Trade Rumors.
A pitcher at that level, and with that amount of team control, isn’t going to come without a significant cost. That’s where 2022 American League Batting champion Luis Arraez enters the picture. He is a talented player that is truly beloved in the clubhouse and the fanbase. When unveiling their new uniforms back in November, Minnesota opted to have him on stage, and his smile was beaming. Arraez has only known the Twins organization throughout his professional career.
 
Minnesota fans know they are giving up a guy that doesn’t strike out, gets on base, and consistently hits for a high average. However, Derek Falvey is also likely conscious of Arraez’s deficiencies. Arraez has balky knees that have kept him from finishing seasons in recent years and is limited defensively, starting 94 games at first base and designated hitter last year. He has definitely done an admirable job shoring up first base when Baldelli needed him this year, but that position could be ticketed for Alex Kirilloff , among others, in 2023.
In the deal, Minnesota also gets Jose Salas from Miami, per Craig Mish. An infield prospect currently ranked 5th in the Marlins pipeline, he is a 19-year-old that spent 2022 playing at Single-A. With a .722 OPS across 109 games, Salas flashed some power blasting nine home runs. Baseball America’s profile of him this year concluded that “No matter where he winds up on the diamond, his offensive skills will make him a valuable player.” So the Twins add more young talent to their up-the-middle prospects on the farm.
The final piece of the deal going to Minnesota is 17-year-old outfield prospect Byron Chourio , per Mark Feinsand. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League last season playing 51 games. The .838 OPS was impressive, and largely backed by his nine doubles. There is some speed there as well considering he swiped 19 bases.
There’s no denying that Minnesota is getting a very good arm back in this deal, but López will have the weight of the world on his shoulders each time he goes out, knowing a fan favorite and clubhouse good guy was his price.

As reported this morning by Jeff Passan, the Minnesota Twins have officially agreed to terms with Carlos Correa. No, it’s not the $300+ million deal that the San Francisco Giants or New York Mets initially agreed to, but it is the largest contract this franchise has ever handed out to a free agent. Correa is locked in at six years and $200 million with a no-trade clause and no opt-outs through his age-33 season. The deal includes vesting options for years seven through ten, which could bring the total value to $270 million.
The negotiations over the past several weeks have been an absolute whirlwind. From the time the New York Mets expressed concern over Correas health, through weeks of negotiations decreasing the guaranteed money, Minnesota remained persistent. Their efforts finally paid off Monday night when Correa's agent Scott Boras ended conversations with the Mets.
Rocco Baldelli now has a significant amount of certainty regarding his infield on Opening Day. While Royce Lewis remains out for at least the first half of the year, Correa will play shortstop into the foreseeable future. Jorge Polanco is locked in as the starting second baseman, and Minnesota wants Jose Miranda to play the hot corner. It’s conceivable that Joey Gallo could factor in at first base, or it could be a combination of Luis Arraez and Alex Kirilloff. Either way, only the long-term replacement of Miguel Sano is truly up in the air.
For Minnesota, the revolving door at shortstop is over. Yes, they acquired Kyle Farmer to set a baseline this offseason, but he’ll now be pushed to more of a utility role. Correa starts at short for the second straight Opening Day. No Minnesota shortstop has made three consecutive Opening Day starts since Cristian Guzman last did so in 2004. That level of fluctuation has never been a good thing at such a premium position.
Last year Correa showed an immeasurable amount of leadership and production in the clubhouse. His 4.4 fWAR led the team, and Steamer projections have him coming in at 4.9 fWAR for 2023. Still entering his prime, there is no reason why Minnesota can’t see Correa replicating the 6.0 fWAR season he previously put up with the Houston Astros or potentially pushing the bar even further and winning an MVP.
The clubhouse has to be elated to get such a rare monumental talent back for the long haul. Polanco, Arraez, and Miranda all found themselves on FaceTime with Correa during the Twins jersey reveal at Mall of America, and it’s clear this group is more than excited to have him still on their team. Outfielder Byron Buxton took to Twitter to show his emotions as well.
For the rest of the roster, there is a bit of fallout to deal with. Correa, as mentioned, likely pushes Farmer to a utility role. Unfortunately, that impacts Nick Gordon the most. He could factor in as an extra outfielder, but the bat of Kyle Garlick could be a bigger draw. On the infield, it’s both Lewis and Brooks Lee that see a bit of an adjustment. Lee has yet to debut and now may have the luxury of more time to develop. Lewis has plenty of runway to clear before his health is restored, but he has positional flexibility already built-in with his athleticism. It remains to be seen what the Twins will do on the trade market. Their outfield seems packed, and now there are some assets on the infield that competitors could covet in trade. At this point, Minnesota is better off having Correa in their clubhouse, and they can shuffle the pieces as they need to when the time comes.

On the surface, Carlos Correa’s return isn’t an addition. He played 136 games for the Twins in 2022, hitting .291/.366/.467 (140 OPS+) while producing 5.4 b-Wins Above Replacement. Correa lead the team in bWAR and OPS (.834), mostly thanks to a scalding September. 
While “adding” a player of Correa’s ilk is always exciting, many Twins fans may be understandably more skeptical of his impact on the roster. The Twins won only 78 games last year, with Correa mostly healthy; why should we expect more with a similar group in 2023?
The Twins collapsed late in the summer, making Correa’s torrid finish a forgotten tale. The fresh memory on many minds is Correa’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position when the Twins needed him all summer. Through July 1st, Correa posted a wRC+ of 85 with runners in scoring position, well below the league average of 106. 
Naturally, Correa posted a sterling 128 wRC+ with runners in scoring position after July 1st. We’ve learned through study (and this book) that great hitters are great hitters no matter the situation. Correa’s career OPS with runners in scoring position is .818. His career OPS with no men on base? .825. 
Correa had a tremendous second half in 2022, hitting .304/.380/.486 (149 wRC+) while producing 2.4 f-Wins Above Replacement. Correa was top-10 in the American League in Win Probability Added after the All-Star break. Correa's slower start could be due to a shortened spring training, heightened pressure on a quasi-one-year deal, or simple batted-ball luck. Whatever it was, Correa put it in the rearview after the first half. 
While it’s understandable to question Correa’s true impact, his .730 OPS with RISP in 2022 is due for positive regression. He should drive in more runs and provide more overall impact at the plate throughout the season. Trust the numbers here, including his highest hard-hit rate since 2017 (44.7%). 
The concern with his right ankle isn't insignificant. Two teams took the PR hit rather than commit huge money to Correa. Something must be up, right? It's impossible to know for sure. Correa may have a rough time through his 30s... or he may not. In a refreshing change of pace, the Twins are taking the risk. Players of Correa's stature are rarely available to the Twins in free agency. 
It’s easy to forget the hype surrounding Correa when the Twins signed him last March. We’re honestly talking about a generational shortstop. Through their age-27 seasons, only three shortstops have more bWAR than Correa since the Senators moved to Minnesota: Alex Rodríguez, Robin Yount, and Cal Ripken Jr. 
Among those shortstops who logged at least 3,500 plate appearances, Correa ranks 3rd in OPS+ behind only A-Rod and Hanley Ramírez. Since 2019, Correa’s 39 Defensive Runs Saved are the most among all shortstops. He’s a unique talent, evidenced by at least two teams offering him over $300 million in contracts this winter. 
FanGraphs ZiPS projects Correa for 5.6 fWAR in 2023. That’s the highest among Twins and a full 4.2 more than Kyle Farmer. Correa completely changes the outlook of the current roster, especially considering the Twins are much deeper in pitching talent than they were on Opening Day in 2022. 
The "Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings" from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs pegged the Twins for 81 wins before the Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Joey Gallo signings. We can reasonably expect that projected win total to rise at least four notches after these moves. As currently constructed, the Twins look like an 85-86 win team. Add a frontline starter via trade, and that number will approach the desired 90. Correa was a key piece as one of the best free agents available. 
Beyond his impact on the field, the Twins will welcome Correa, the person, back with open arms. Byron Buxton, José Miranda, and countless other team members spoke highly of their new friend and teammate throughout the 2022 season. Correa’s postseason experience and pedigree - things we lauded him for less than a year ago - are needed more than ever. 
It’s natural to wonder if the Twins are truly getting *better* with the move to retain their star shortstop. Every season and roster is different, and the Twins are much better today than they were yesterday. Continue to acquire great players, and great things tend to happen. Correa is a great player. 
Excitement is warranted. 

Carlos Correa's wild offseason journey has led to agreements with both the Giants and Mets that fell through over concerns about his physical. Now, it has led him back to where he started. 
This time last year, Correa was one of the top names on the free agent market, so much so that he reportedly turned down a 10-year, $270M offer. However, he had to wait out MLB’s lockout, which is when he switched agents to Scott Boras. The market for superstars was less robust when the lockout ended in early March. So, he opted to sign a three-year deal with the Minnesota Twins for $35.1M per year, but the contract also allowed him to opt out after each of the first two years.
That agreement couldn’t have worked out better for both parties. Correa thrived offensively and defensively, becoming the Twins MVP and earning rave reviews for his leadership and mentorship. He opted out of his contract, again positioned as one of the top free agents available. 
But the usually thrifty Twins declared their intention to pursue him, eventually offering a 10-year $285M contract. Alas, that appeared to be nowhere near enough. Correa agreed to a deal with the San Francisco Giants for 13 years and $350M, but that deal fell apart a week later when the Giants expressed concerns about a plate in Correa’s right leg from a 2014 injury. 
It didn’t take long for Correa to find another suitor. The same night, he agreed to a 12-year deal with New York Mets' owner Steve Cohen for $315M. However, shortly thereafter, the Mets had a similar concern, jeopardizing that deal.
Correa and the Mets worked on resolving that concern for more than two weeks, with varying levels of optimism that a deal would get done. Thursday night, that optimism was shaken when Jon Heyman revealed that Boras had engaged with at least one other team. The talks stalled when the two sides could not agree on language protecting the Mets if Correa’s career or production were cut short due to the old injury. Lenient terms on a team opt-out midway through a 12-year deal can quickly turn a guaranteed contract into a not-so-guaranteed contract.
Enter the Twins. They had re-engaged with a similar contract to the one they previously offered, though the guaranteed amount is unclear. Also, while Correa's old injury surely could provide some concerns, they had the advantage of having already observed Correa and his right leg up close for the last year. Their offer was less dependent on a physical, a key component Boras needed before walking away from the Mets’ offer. 
It was unclear to the Twins whether they were truly a serious contender or were being used as leverage for Boras against the Mets. Correa may have enjoyed his time with the Twins, but the Mets have a loaded roster, an owner willing to spend whatever it takes, and the City that Never Sleeps. Were the Twins just being used to drive up the dollars? Or to get the Mets to bend on contract language regarding the opt-out? Or did they really have a chance to land Correa?
The Twins and Boras traded multiple offers over the weekend, and confidence their status varied from hour to hour and executive to executive. They knew that Boras was also doing the same with the Mets, and it should be obvious that negotiations with the super agent Boras can be intense. Several times, the pendulum swung from “optimistic” to “pessimistic” and back again, even over the last 24 hours. 
With that said, this is obviously a stunning turn of events in terms of optics. The Mets and Giants are among the most free-spending, impulsive, uninhibited franchises in baseball regarding free agency. The Twins are on the exact opposite end of that spectrum.
Correa has quickly become one of the most publicized high-risk free agents at this level of caliber/price we've ever seen. Minnesota's front office – despite its litany of existing injury concerns – said ‘screw it’ and bypassed the inhibitions that held back big-market titans. Why? Because they feel the shortstop is everything their team needs to take the next step.
The only times the Twins have even approached swimming in waters this deep financially was when they were previously faced with losing longtime Twins fixtures like Kirby Puckett, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton. In 1992, Puckett was the top free agent on the market but re-signed with the Twins for 5 years and $30M. In 2010, entering his last year of team control, Mauer agreed to an 8-year, $184 million contract extension to stay with the team. Finally, last year, also entering his final year of team control, Buxton agreed to a 7-year, $100M contract with almost another $100M in possible incentives.
While Correa was with the team for only one year, he has this in common with those players: the organization didn’t want to lose him. 
Correa's impact on the team was clearly evident in 2022, when he put forth stellar production on the field and earned rave reviews of his wide-reaching impact on the organization. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender at a premium position. He’s averaged 28 home runs over 162 games while getting on base at a .359 clip. He’s also just 28 years old, entering the prime of his career. Like those previous players, he is now positioned to be the face of the Twins franchise. 
In terms of his future fit, obviously, Correa is lined up to play shortstop for now, which pushes Kyle Farmer into more of a utility role while giving Royce Lewis plenty of time to work his way back from knee surgery. It's interesting that the Mets were planning to immediately shift Correa to third base (and he seemed totally open to it), so that could be the plan somewhere down the line for Minnesota. 
But as a 28-year-old former Platinum Glover still fielding short at a high level, there's no rush for now. The Twins got their shortstop. And more than that, they got their guy and turned around a wayward offseason with the biggest and boldest contract in franchise history.
The Twins are in it to win it. Let's go.
 

(Content warning: This story includes allegations of sexual assault that may be difficult to read and emotionally upsetting.)
Unwilling to entertain his presence on the team, the Los Angeles Dodgers still owe Bauer an additional $22.5 million for the 2023 season, making him officially free to play for any team interested in paying the league minimum salary ($720,000) to sign him. The Dodgers will be on the hook for the rest. Many fan bases across baseball have speculated on what he might bring for a rotation. However, no consideration of stats should erase the obvious: Bauer’s presence on the Twins would be bad for the team, bad for fans, and bad for baseball.
Trevor Bauer signed as a free agent with the Dodgers in 2021 on a creative three-year deal. However, in July of that year, allegations of sexual misconduct came to light after a woman filed a restraining order that detailed two separate incidents. In his own legal filings, Bauer did not deny some of the particularly brutish details of the victim's injuries but claimed they were entirely consensual.
The Dodgers, acting slower than what many fans expected, placed Bauer on administrative leave pending a further investigation from MLB. During that process, the Washington Post published two separate stories following allegations that claimed similar violent behavior by Bauer during his time with Cleveland. 
After completing their own investigation, MLB announced a suspension of Bauer for violating the league’s domestic violence policy – a record 324 days. Bauer appealed, and after a second extensive investigation by an independent and binding arbitrator, the sentence was reduced to 194 days, making him eligible to play at the beginning of the 2023 season. That sentence, however, was still noted as the longest in MLB’s short history of domestic violence enforcement.
Although Bauer has disputed some of the facts of the original allegations, and the LA district attorney declined to file criminal charges, there are a number of other key elements to consider with the pitcher. He has been vocal on social media, attacking numerous media members and especially female-identifying fans, targeting them for harassment. He has voiced anti-Semitic conspiracy theories, attacked trans individuals, and generally brought negative attention to himself on a regular basis. Bauer was considered "MLB's most hated man" long before all of this transpired.
Through the allegations and investigations, Bauer has remained vocal in trying to put himself back in the spotlight and shown little to no remorse. In fact, he still has a case open for defamation against former beat writer Molly Knight for publishing details about the case (a similar suit against The Athletic was dismissed). Unlike other cases of players who served sentences and have at least done their best to center on the game, Bauer has demonstrated an interest in creating more hassle and negative media buzz for any team interested in bringing him aboard. In fact, in his statement about his release, Bauer poisoned the waters by claiming the Dodgers allegedly told him they wanted him to play for the team as late as the day before his release. 
Different from the “let the kids play” mentality of the younger generation of baseball players, he has also occasionally made a mockery of the game and sportsmanship, particularly an incident in Cleveland where he refused to give up the game ball and tossed it into the centerfield bleachers. Bauer relished playing the villain in the Dodgers uniform and doing everything to make opposing fans boo him. Stories quickly arose after Bauer’s suspension from teammates in Los Angeles who felt his negativity not just on the field but within the clubhouse. At least one Dodgers pitcher—former Twins prospect Brusdar Graterol—almost immediately liked the Dodger's Instagram post announcing the release.
 
Twins fans already saw what happens when one player tries to make themselves an MLB villain a few years ago with the signing of Josh Donaldson. Though he played two above-average seasons for the Twins, the apparent animosity he created between himself and other players no doubt did not bode well during their frustrating 2021 season. Although never openly stated, the discussion of “better vibes” in 2022 from a number of Twins players became quickly clear that many felt the trade with the Yankees was for the better. Bauer’s laundry list of behaviors would be a more extreme version of Donaldson in a Twins clubhouse. 
Most importantly, Bauer’s signing would show a sign of entire indifference toward a wide swath of Twins fans. For many Dodgers fans, Bauer in a uniform demonstrated the worst of MLB’s attitude toward an entire gender of fans of baseball, at a time in which the growth of female fans has pointed a better direction for the sport. The fact the Dodgers took a month to decide what should have been obvious was a blow to fans frustrated at the team’s callous care toward payroll or winning. As Ken Rosenthal pointed to in his own column on the subject, "Some decisions, though, are so necessary, so important, they should not require much thought."
It’s hard to ever think baseball will ever love you back, but there’s at least a version without Trevor Bauer’s hands bringing both old and likely new behavior behavior to Minnesota. No matter the value he might bring on the mound, Trevor Bauer is not worth it. 
 

It wasn’t supposed to go this way for Carlos Correa. He spent the last offseason seeking a long-term deal over $300 million. He never got that and instead settled for a one-year contract that paid him the highest average annual value we’ve ever seen for an infielder. Now, still unsigned on January 8, his long-term prognosis has been scrutinized, and sources continue to indicate that Minnesota could be the benefactor. 
It has been multiple weeks since reports trickled in that Carlos Correa would be signing a 12-year, $315 million deal with the New York Mets. They were a late suitor to the party, but stood there with a wad of cash after the San Francisco Giants wanted to rework their 13-year, $350 million offer following a physical. We now know that the issues stemming from the physical all tie back to an ankle that was surgically repaired as a prospect, and the Twins have seen the same information.
According to a source, Minnesota is now using the physical to their advantage. Correa was already cleared last March for what was a three-year contract. As recently as Saturday morning another offer was made. While the deal would still likely require a physical, the Twins have indicated they are comfortable with where Correa’s health and body are. 
Coming into the season, Minnesota knew that Correa would opt out after one season unless he played poorly or was injured. They sought to keep him on a long-term contract, ultimately offering 10-years, $285 million. That didn’t reach the same realm as either the Giants or Mets, and therefore left the Twins short. Prior to San Francisco making their last push, the Twins felt well positioned. Although that may have been shortsighted, it appears the chances may now be higher than ever.
New York is looking to rework Correa’s deal, and a source indicated that language protecting the Mets meant his guaranteed money could be cut by as much as one-third. Correa is looking for long-term certainty, and the Mets adding conditions to exit the deal after seven years would be a non-starter. Although the Twins $285 million over 10 years was originally well short on dollars, it’s now in the ballpark of (or even exceeding) the truly guaranteed money.
A source indicated the latest offer, which is thought to give Minnesota very firm footing, is in the range of that previous final offer. 
With New York reluctant on the length at this point, and with alternatives in top prospects Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, the Mets backing out altogether is not unfathomable. Mets owner Steve Cohen recently liked a tweet suggesting that the player needs his team more than the team needs him. Although that may be true for a franchise that has Francisco Lindor at shortstop and would be pushing Correa to the hot corner, it’s certainly not an ideal way to go about welcoming talent.
From the get-go, Minnesota has made Correa and his family feel welcomed and a priority. Again, the front office has stood steadfast in holding close to an original offer despite multiple cutbacks from organizations that have since gotten cold feet. The Twins are growing increasingly comfortable that Boras is not simply playing with the Twins as leverage for the Mets. Instead, he has grown annoyed with the proceedings, wants resolution in the coming days, and Minnesota may even now be the frontrunner.
It’s a wait-and-see game regarding Cohen and his unlimited amount of dollars. Whether general manager Billy Eppler wants to push forward or not remains to be seen, but the Mets have acted at the last minute multiple times during this saga.
Knowing that players like Manny Machado and Shohei Ohtani will be free agents next offseason has helped to keep some of the biggest markets out of this race. Minnesota won’t be in consideration for those two, and this represents their best chance to make a splash of this caliber. Correa’s dollars could come in nearly $100 million more than Joe Mauer’s hometown extension, and seeing that type of commitment would be welcomed by Twins Territory.
While it has always been unlikely that Correa would wind up back in Minnesota, and it remains unlikely, this is probably as close as it has felt to them looking like a front-runner.
 
 

The ongoing Mets negotiations with Carlos Corea and the agreed upon 12-year, $315M deal have dragged on for weeks after the Mets expressed concerns about Correa’s surgically repaired right leg. But there has always been optimism from both sides that a dea would get done because Cohen tends to get what he wants. And Cohen wanted Correa.
His attitude might have changed. 
Cohen is not active on Twitter; his last tweet was back in November. Before today, the last tweet he liked was a Mets fan espousing signing Carlos Correa almost a month ago. But today he found a few that he liked that have a little different slant.
“Met fans? Don’t panic. In the event this isn’t a ploy remember, the Mets have options in either Escobar or a young gun in Baty. I want Carlos, but he needs the Mets more than they need him. Plus his options are shrinking. Stay the course. #lgm #nymets #MetsTwitter”
That was posted by @Adrian16010, discussing a story about how the Mets had grown “very frustrated” with the weeks-long negotiations they’ve had with Correa’s agent, Scott Boras. But Cohen wasn’t done. He also liked this one:
“We are already a better team than we were this time last year. Remember... We won 101 games last year. That's because of the commitment Steve Cohen has made to the team and fans. Whether the Correa deal works out not, it's great to have an owner willing to do anything to win!” - @BruceGamsey

This isn’t the only evidence that the chances of the Mets and Correa reaching an agreement could be fading. The aforementioned SNY’s story by Andy Martino yesterday claimed that a Mets source said the team was very frustrated and considering walking away. Later yesterday, Jim Bowden insisted that the Twins have again become a legitimate candidate on MLB Network Radio. 
 

Over the years, and immediately when hired, two words that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine used consistently were “creative” and “collaborative.” The duo know they are operating a mid-market team, and while the Pohlad family has an immense fortune, there’s still a level of business savvy that goes into spending on a baseball team.
The goal in hiring Falvey specifically was to create a forward-thinking developmental machine that churned out talent along the lines of his former employer, the Cleveland Guardians. Needing to be more competitive on the pitching front, an area in which considerable money is often spent, developing talent is a surefire way to control spending and advance the roster.
A question has presented itself, however. Why are the Twins seemingly less interested in spending money than they are player capital?
Just a season ago, owners fought tooth and nail to stifle the earnings of major-league talent. There has never been a point in which minor-league talent was fairly compensated, and despite growing revenues the slices of the pie for players and owners has not been in harmony. One such reason that happens is due to the team control placed on a player for the better part of their most productive seasons as an athlete.
Unlike most other professional sports, the way team control works carries a substantial monetary value. It is in that understanding where it seems odd a team like the Twins would be so willing to make deals rather than to open the pocketbook.
Spencer Steer is gone. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is gone. Chase Petty is gone. The Twins have taken a good chunk of their top prospects and moved them to acquire big-league talent. There’s nothing wrong with those moves in and of themselves, but they seem equally active in free agency discussions as they do the trade market.
Thus far, trades have all but stalled out this offseason. The focus for most front offices has been to pay for talent. Rather than giving away controllable players to the opposition, front offices have spent dollars they will undoubtedly recoup in revenue, and make more as they’ve just used them to acquire an asset. Minnesota should be pushing toward something like a $160 million in Opening Day payroll for 2023, and yet all of the dollars have been held close to their chest. When targeting talents like Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodon, or Christian Vazquez as has been reported, Minnesota has not yet made enough of an offer to generate a Yes. If that is due, in part, because a secondary option is seen as an ok outcome, it’s a gross misuse of the funds available to them. Whether a limit by the Pohlad family is in place or not, there should never be a time in which free agency is seen as a less than desirable avenue.
There’s no limit to the amount of money a Major League franchise will continue to be worth. Revenues skyrocket and will surpass $11 billion for Major League Baseball this season. Each team will see over $100 million in their pockets before even selling a ticket this season. That not being used to the fullest capacity, and instead piecing out players that can keep payroll down and develop within a system seems like a misstep.
Minnesota’s front office has taken a cautious approach more often than not. Even when Correa was signed, it was only after a player-friendly deal was presented to the team by agent Scott Boras. It’s beyond time that attacking the free agent market with a wad of cash becomes a bigger part of the practice, and at some point, it’d be great to retain more of what’s already in the system for future use.

It wasn’t long ago that the Minnesota Twins employed a veteran alongside Ryan Jeffers in the form of Mitch Garver. When he was traded to the Texas Rangers last offseason, Derek Falvey targeted Gary Sanchez in a deal that sent Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt to the Yankees. Sanchez wasn’t awful, but didn’t make the strides that would’ve warranted a return.
While the catching market looked thin behind All-Star Willson Contreras, the Twins keyed in all along on former Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros backstop Christian Vazquez. Having spent the entirety of his professional career in Boston up until 2022, Vazquez was dealt at the trade deadline with the Red Sox falling out of contention.
At the time he was dealt, Vazquez owned a 109 OPS+ for Boston and was a solid defender with a great clubhouse presence. The position is not one that is often seen as a strong offensive contributor, but he’s remained slightly above-average in each full season since 2019.
 
 
Coming off a World Series victory with the Houston Astros, Vazquez has worked with every type of pitcher including future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. He’ll look to handle a Twins pitching staff headlined by the trio of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Joe Ryan. Kenta Maeda will also start the season in the rotation, and it’s well documented that Minnesota would like to add another starter.

Behind the plate, Vazquez has been a solid defender for the majority of his career. He ranked 22nd in pop time last season per Statscast and generated an additional framing run for his efforts. His 47.8% strike rate ranks just below former Astros teammate Martin Maldonado.
In signing Vazquez, Minnesota puts Jeffers back on the smaller end of a split. Similar to the scenario he was in with Garver, it should be expected that Vazquez operates as the 1A option among the pair. The Twins front office still has plenty of belief in Jeffers’ bat, and he’s come a long way defensively since the draft. If he can stay healthy, there’s a good chance he gets significant work against lefties and can raise his overall numbers.
The front office made their first substantial move of the offseason in addressing the catcher situation. They’ll now refocus their efforts on Carlos Correa at shortstop and what they can find on the starting pitching market.

Fans of every MLB team want their franchise to spend more money. It is one of the most straightforward solutions to improve a team because increasing payroll allows clubs to add the best free agents. However, spending more money is no guarantee of success. Plenty of small market teams are annual contenders because of their player development and smart front offices. The Twins and the Padres take different approaches to create their 26-man roster, so why are these clubs so different?

Payroll Comparison
Last season, the Padres had a payroll of $214 million, with three players making more than $16 million. Minnesota's payroll was $72 million less than the Padres, with Carlos Correa accounting for 24.7% of the team's $142 million payroll. San Diego has Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. signed to contracts worth over $300 million. Yu Darvish and Wil Myers are making $20 million or more in 2022. Currently, the Padres only trail the Mets and Yankees for the highest projected payroll for the 2023 campaign. 
Market Size
Compared to other MLB teams, the Padres are a clear mid-market team, which is one reason San Diego is down to one professional sports team. MLB's three largest markets (New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago) all have multiple MLB franchises The San Diego metropolitan area, and the Minneapolis-Saint Paul markets are similar in population. It seems logical that both teams can spend similar amounts on payroll, but that isn't the case. 

TV Deals
One of the club's most significant revenue sources is its TV deal. Minnesota is entering the final year of a 12-year, $480 million deal that pays the club around $40 million annually. In 2012, the Padres signed a 20-year deal for $1.2 to 1.5 billion, putting the average annual payments to the club in the $50-$75 million range. The Padres also have a 20% equity share in the network broadcasting their games, which means the club can earn more revenue as more fans watch games. Minnesota's expiring TV deal will be interesting to watch over the next year. Will the club be able to spend more in 2023 and beyond because of increased revenue from a new deal?   
AL Central Comparison
Minnesota is in one of baseball's weakest divisions, and the club has a higher payroll than every team in the division besides Chicago. Last week, Ted Schwerzler discussed that the Twins' payroll should be closer to $160 million than $140 million. Cleveland easily won the AL Central last season with a payroll below $70 million. Some expect the Guardians' payroll to increase as a new ownership group gains more say in the team's spending. Detroit has also shown a willingness to spend when the club is in contention.

There are similarities between San Diego and Minnesota regarding market size, but the Padres have continually outspent the Twins. Rosters are incomplete for the 2023 season, but it seems unlikely for the Twins to get anywhere near the $235 million projected for the Padres. Minnesota's TV deal is hampering some of its revenues, but they are spending more than enough to be competitive in the AL Central. 

Should the Twins spend similarly to the Padres? Will a new TV deal help the team's willingness to spend? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

The mutual affinity between Carlos Correa and the Twins does seem genuine. He appears very open to returning, and is at the very least giving Minnesota the time of day by entertaining offers, which is something we've rarely been able to say about top-tier free agents in past years. 
There have been reports of the Twins submitting multiple different proposals to Correa's camp, as the front office gets creative in trying to put forth a framework that entices him away from other monster offers he's sure to receive – while also not being so risk-filled and player-friendly as to defy their sensibilities.
That's a very difficult line to walk. Signing Correa would obviously be a precedent-shattering move for this franchise, at any level, and by all accounts they are ready to take that step. But it doesn't mean they'll hand Scott Boras a blank check. 
Is there a way the Twins could win the bidding for Correa without actually having the largest guaranteed offer? Is there are practical structure for a deal that doesn't force Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to abandon their regard for long-term planning?
I think maybe I've got something. But you tell me if it works for both sides.
Hypothetical Twins/Correa contract: 10 years, $325 million with two player opt-outs.
Here's how it breaks down, year by year:
Year 1: $40M
Year 2: $40M
Year 3: $40M
Year 4: $40M
*opt-out*
Year 5: $30M
Year 6: $30M
Year 7: $30M
*opt-out*
Year 8: $25M
Year 9: $25M
Year 10: $25M
It's a frontloaded contract that is essentially broken down into three parts. After earning $160 million in the first four years, Correa can opt out of six years and $165 million at age 32, or three years and $75 million at age 35.
The reason this feels like a realistic concept is that I can look at it from both sides and talk myself into it, even while accounting for the front office's known tendencies and preferences.
Why the Twins Like It
In trying to come up with this theoretical contract, I presupposed two things from the team's point of view:
They're willing to dish out huge salaries in the short term (they'd have happily paid out Correa's full three-year, $105 million contract), but they're deathly afraid of being burdened by gargantuan commitments for aging mid-30s players down the line. They recognize that player opt-outs are an effective mechanism for making contracts more appealing to players and their agents, but don't want to include them in a way that robs all of the team's upside from a deal. I believe the above framework satisfies their preferences on both fronts. The highest salaries are concentrated at the front of the contract, during Correa's prime years, so they'd be ostensibly paying most for his peak production. The diminishing salaries in the latter part of the deal reduce team downside to some extent should things go awry.
Meanwhile, the opt-outs probably aren't too inhibiting. If Correa chooses to re-enter the market after four or six great years the Twins will have been happy to have gotten them. 
Why Correa and Boras Like It
Well, for one thing, it's a legitimate all-time MLB free agent contract. Correa would tie Giancarlo Stanton and Corey Seager for the sixth-biggest guaranteed sum ever. His salary next year would be the highest for any position player in history, and second overall only to Max Scherzer ($43.3M).
These things matter to Correa and Boras – not sheerly out of greed, as some would proclaim, but to pave the way for future players and contracts. It's no coincidence the past contract made Correa the highest-paid infielder ever, just by a hair.
I also could see the frontloaded makeup of this framework having appeal to Correa, if he wants to be on himself an truly maximize his earnings. Should he tear it up while earning $160 million over the next four years, he could easily re-enter the market at 32 and seek another deal approaching $200 million.
Could It Really Happen?
Let's be clear: this contract would not only shatter precedence for the Twins, but for baseball at large. Of the 10 contracts that have ever been signed for $300 million or more, none came from teams outside of the major markets in Southern California, New York, Texas and Philadelphia. 
For Minnesota to be the first flyover mid-market club to break that barrier would be almost hilariously surreal, and yet, if ever there was a time I could see it happening, it's now. The Twins are ushering in a new era with a comprehensive rebrand and ownership shift. Out of sheer circumstance, they stumbled into getting acquainted with Correa and now have a verifiable IN with one of the most talented players in the world. They also have tremendously clear books going forward.
Do I think it will happen? No, I still don't. But I've talked myself into there being a path. What say you all?
 
 

Acquired in exchange for minor-league pitcher Casey Legumina last week, Kyle Farmer has followed an interesting career path in terms of defensive development. Formerly a star high school baseball star and quarterback (he made a cameo in The Blind Side!), he played shortstop at the University of Georgia before being drafted as a catcher by Los Angeles in the 13th round in 2013.
Farmer had never played catcher, but the Dodgers and other teams liked him at the position because of his big frame and strong arm. He split time between there and at third while working his way up to the majors, where it took him four years to get his long-coveted chance at a return to shortstop.
"Farmer didn’t receive an opportunity to play shortstop regularly until he met with Reds manager David Bell in spring training before the 2020 season and told him that he could do it," wrote Bobby Nightingale for the Cincinnati Enquirer. Farmer has since made 234 starts over three seasons at the position, after totaling NINE – majors and minors – through his first seven years as a pro.
Farmer has made 81% of his 289 starts since 2020 at shortstop, impressing enough with the glove to keep getting nods there from Bell and Co. in Cincy, and now to be targeted by the Twins largely for his SS ability. 
But there are other skills in Farmer's defensive toolkit that make the versatile infielder a player who fits under several different scenarios. Which is exactly what the front office liked about him.
Scenario A: Farmer is the interim starting shortstop until Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee is ready.
If the Twins believe that Lewis is on track to fully recover and take over as long-term starting shortstop midway through the season, then this will be the course of action. In fact, to be honest, this will very likely be the course of action unless they can sign one of the top four (highly coveted) shortstops on the market, which means it's probably just going to happen.
It's not the worst thing in the world! Depending on your view of Lewis. Farmer is far from a top-tier starter at shortstop but he's perfectly adequate, with a solid glove and a bit of pop at the plate. 
He's really rough against right-handed pitching, which limits his appeal as a regular at any position, but the Twins could theoretically rotate in Jorge Polanco or Nick Gordon occasionally. If Lewis can return in May or June and pick up where he left off, then Farmer shifts into the role outlined in Scenario B at that point. 
Meanwhile, the Twins have conserved tens of millions of dollars to spend elsewhere while maintaining flexibility to usher in Lewis or Lee as the shortstop of the future. 
Scenario B: Farmer is a semi-regular at third base who fills in around the infield.
What if the Twins manage to land Carlos Correa, or another top shortstop via free agency or trade? In this case, Farmer can still fill a valuable role, albeit it with a less intensive workload. In this scenario, he fills a lesser version of the role Gio Urshela after Miranda came up in 2022, starting a couple times a week at third while Miranda rests, or slides to first base or DH. 
Farmer is the steadier and more reliable glove at third base, and frankly the book is still out on Miranda's defense. There's great value in dependable veteran depth. Farmer can make himself useful on days where Miranda is at third by stepping in at short, second or first. He's even a viable DH option against southpaws thanks to his .837 career OPS vs. LHP.
Scenario C: Farmer is a super-utility backup who plugs in all around the field.
Let's say the Twins are more committed to Miranda at third than I think they are, or should be. And let's also say they find another superior player to start at shortstop. In this case, Farmer probably becomes more of a true utilityman, making starts all over the field to spell starters and backfill injuries. 
"When the Reds acquired him from the Los Angeles Dodgers," notes Nightingale, "he was viewed as a utility guy with extra value as a third catcher." This could be the role Minnesota envisions for him, with his bat platooning around the field against lefties. In addition to shortstop, catcher, and third, Farmer has experience at second, first, and left field. 
His viability at shortstop can make him the top backup at that position (they currently have none, with Jermaine Palacios gone), and he can also serve as third-string catcher, which figures to be a need since they're currently without even Caleb Hamilton-caliber secondary depth.
As mentioned, the ultimate role for Farmer in 2023 will be dictated by what the Twins do elsewhere. But unless they turn around and trade him a la Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who, incidentally, was a trade target to fill almost the exact same role), he'll almost certainly end up being used in one of these three capacities.
 

The Good Lord put Kyle Garlick on this Earth to do one thing: mash left-handed pitching. The 30-year-old isn’t a great fielder, has never taken more than 200 plate appearances in a season at the major league level, and consistently fails to hold a Duolingo streak (allegedly). But, he can put a hurt on a ball thrown from a southpaw like few players in MLB. 
Garlick’s career slash line against lefties is a lopsided .251/.301/.538, almost a mirror image of Byron Buxton’s .224/.306/.526 total effort in 2022, and a hearty upgrade over the average AL slash line against lefties in 2022 (.246/.315/.399). I tried typing Garlick’s line against right-handers, but the power ominously flicked on and off while a ghastly voice told me the day of my death. 
For Minnesota, the fit is obvious; the team is 21st in MLB in OPS against lefties dating back to the 2020 season, as core players like Max Kepler and, strangely, Miguel Sanó have found themselves flummoxed when facing southpaws. While other lefty killers like Mitch Garver and C.J. Cron have exited stage right, the Twins have struggled to find replacements, and the team that dominated lefties in 2019 (.872 OPS!!) needs aid against them. 
This is an aside, but Nelson Cruz hit .361/.438/.730 against lefties while in a Twins uniform. Man, that guy rocked. 
For Garlick, the deal is a nice safety net; players who break into the league at the age of 27 don’t usually become roster fixtures, and Garlick’s two-year tenure with the Twins has so far represented the heftiest playing time any major-league franchise has offered him. Health has also failed Garlick. The outfielder suffered four separate injuries in 2022 while a sports hernia knocked out most of his 2021 campaign. His new contract worth $750,000 is now a little over the veteran minimum of $700,000, making the deal a slight perk up to his paycheck. 
Garlick will never be an impact player, but every team needs tertiary specialists, and the Twins have been significantly lacking in players who can thump a lefty. It’s easy to imagine a late-game scenario where Rocco Baldelli pinch-hits Garlick with a lefty reliever stuck on the mound, giving the Twins a better chance to nab an extra-base hit, potentially securing a crucial run. Or, maybe, Garlick starts against a tough lefty, cranking two homers in a rousing effort.
You don’t even need to imagine that one because he did it last year against Shane McClanahan. 
In any case, the deal is a low-stakes buy-in for a player who helps fix a desperate roster need. If healthy, Garlick could be a useful piece against a niche, yet important, variety of pitcher. If he isn't healthy, the team is down a sum of money any good accountant could wipe away with ease.