SteelDodo

I'm going to push back a little bit on the people complaining about the pitching pipeline, obviously this is a major bummer for Matt, but as far as the impact to the system, isn't that what tinstaapp means? People always say you need 10 or so decent pitching prospects in order to get 1-2 viable major league pitchers, and then they act upset when one of the 10 gets injured or doesn't play well. Off the top of my head, viable major league pitchers that have established themselves within the last year or so include: Joe Ryan, Ober, Jax, Duran, Winder, and Moran. This group also includes three of the top four pitchers on the team according to WAR. I mean, yes none of these guys have won a Cy Young yet, but isn't that a "pitching pipeline" Is supposed to be?

According to Fangraphs, "Tanner Schobel is one of the best shortstop defenders in the draft" (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/). I'm not sure if this is true or not, but if so, then I REALLY like this pick. Right now in our system, Lewis and Miller seem to be the only two players that have a reasonable likelihood of sticking at SS and having a long career in the majors. Even then, there are doubts about both of them sticking as SS. If Schobel even has an average bat (which it appears he does), he seems like a good value as a pick at the end of the second round.

I'm hoping for only pitchers and catchers for the rest of the draft.

Doh! I was hoping for Birdsell again. Cubs drafted him one pick before us.

I LOVE how quickly the draft moves on day 2.

Great draft! I love all the draft-related content on the site this year. Thanks for all the work! Regarding this particular draft, I think there is probably a better than 50% chance that one of the big 7 fall, though I have no idea which one or which team will pull the surprise. If one of the 7 is available, that should be the pick. Don't think, just make the pick. If the board falls like this though, I think I'm on the Gavin Cross train. He probably will not ever be a superstar, but based on the reports I've read, he strikes me as someone who has a very high likelihood of making it to the majors and having a long career. I heard someone say he has Larnach's bat with Kepler's defense, though I have no idea if that is accurate. If true though, that is very solid value at the eighth pick. No need to get cute.

Ditto everyone's thoughts. I love him, but doubt he falls. Not sure if you're planning this already, but can I make a request for a profile on Susac? He seems like an almost comparable C and one that likely will be available. He's on my short list if one of the big 6-7 don't fall.

Personally, I would LOVE one of the two catchers. Outside of Jeffers and Sanchez (who only has one year left on his contract anyways), I don't see any catcher who has a realistic shot to contribute to the big league club in the future.

Thanks for the report! If you were to rank him, where would he land among twins prospects? Mlb.com puts him at 20, below Strotman and Sands but above Vallimont and Hajjar. Though Fangraphs puts him at 9, above SWR and below Canterino. If he's actually ranked above SWR, that makes him a borderline top 100 prospect.

Love the Potential #8 Pick Performances section. That's a GREAT idea.

Thanks Jeremy! I love the draft too, and I'm looking forward to your series! According to most projections, it looks like there are ~3 college catchers with a first round grade. I'm hoping that at least one of them improve their stock to be worthy of a top 10 pick. Outside of Jeffers/Rortvedt, I don't see any young, big-league caliber catchers in the system. To me, that's the weakest aspect of our minor league system right now.

Wow this is a great interview, and I think "mature, focused, well-mannered, & level-headed" all describe him quite well. Makes me pull for him even more! As far as expectations, I don't expect him to sniff the majors this year, though. I would assume the plan is the same as Miranda last year, meaning he'll start the year at AA. Then, if he has no setbacks and plays well, he'll move up to St. Paul late in the season. I think best case scenario is that he's a mid-season call up in 2023.

Bringing the discussion to back to Sabato specifically (rather than draft philosophy generally), one important point is that he was drafted after his true sophomore year, rather than after his Jr. or Sr. year like most college picks. Furthermore, his bday is in June, making him one of the youngest players in his sophomore class (for comparison, on his draft day, Rooker was one year and 7 months older than Sabato was on his). Naturally, this means he might take a little more time to mature than the average college, bat-first player would be expected to.

For an 11th round pick, I am perfectly fine with the Twins taking a high risk, high reward type of player. In fact, I wish they did that more with the late round picks.

I mean that is a VERY high ask for only 1.5 years of Berrios, but then again, highballing (or lowballing) for your first offer is negotiation 101. A particular scene comes to mind...

Well technically, Julien said that too. Then, the Twins made him an offer that he couldn't refuse. Since it appears that all of the draft picks besides Petty are likely candidates to be signed below slot, maybe we can do the same thing with Birdsell? His MLB.com profile said he was likely a top 5 round player if not for the injury, so I'd love to sign him!

Also, one interesting trend I just noticed: it seems like the Twins like the Twins really like using the second round pick to take someone WAY below slot value. Each year since 2017, the Twins only paid their second round pick ~75-80% of their slot value. Landon Leach signed for $1,400,000 (slot value was $1,846,100). Jeffers signed for $800k (slot value was $1,140,600). Canterino signed for $1,100,000 (slot value was $1,338,500), and Soularie signed for $900,000 (slot value was $1,185,500)

Agreed. I think that's ESPECIALLY true in the age of COVID, where scouts maybe only were able to watch a handful of games. Sure, everyone agrees on the top ~10 or so. After that, there is not a whole lot separating the 20th ranked player from the 50th.

YUP.

Assuming they actually could sign him, Madden would be an AWFULLY good value...

I would do either deal, and I would be happy to do it. I also really like the idea of packaging our players together in these trades. By packaging guys together, we're more likely to get higher caliber prospects back. When looking at the prospects/players we'd get in return, I'd rather focus on quality over quantity.

Thanks for the list! I think it will be really interesting to see who the Twins draft with the first few picks this year. They obviously have a strong preference for college batters, but every article I've read say that group is the weakest part of the draft. Sean Johnson said that the depth of college bats is as thin as any draft he can remember, and the real strength of this draft is the college pitching. Knowing that the Twins seem to have an aversion for college pitchers in the first three rounds (since Falvey/Lavine took over, Canterino is the only college pitcher they've drafted in the first three rounds), I wonder if the team will still pick a bat even if the college pitchers available are ranked slightly higher?

Agreed that this is an apples vs. oranges comparison. To compare numbers that may be a bit more relatable, on Baseballtradevalues.com, Escobar is currently worth $4million, Duran is worth $11.2m, Maciel is worth $4.9m, and De la Trinidad is not ranked. I know these numbers aren't that accurate, and Escobar's value today isn't as high as it was in 2018, but I still think the Twins got GREAT value on this trade.

Glad to hear! I know that often college pitchers are knocked for "reliever risk," but I never understood the fear. Especially with how our bullpen has been performing this year, I would gladly spend a first round pick for another Rogers, May, Pressley type.

I want the most star power back, so the Mets deal seems to be the best. I would be very happy with that one