twinbythebay

For what it's worth, the numbers do back up your conclusion here. Donaldson's OPS in high leverage situations (as defined by Fangraphs) is a putrid .293 this season, although that is only based on 11 PAs. His OPS in low and medium leverage situations is .860 and .658, respectively, this season. This is exactly opposite of how he has performed throughout his career (.849/.889/.959 low/medium/high leverage, respectively), so I suspect this will turn around soon as well.

Looking into Donaldson's offensive numbers a little deeper does provide some reason for optimism. His BABIP this season is just .240, well below his career average of .296. Also, his batted ball profile this season is very much in line with his career numbers (18%/45%/37% GB/LD/FB in 2021 vs. 18%/43%/39% career), and his HR/FB rate (12.8%) is well below his career rate (19.0%). Given that his exit velocity is still in the top 10% of the league, it's very reasonable to expect his batted balls to begin turning into hits at a higher clip and more of his fly balls to turn into HRs going forward. His defense seems like a different story, unfortunately... He is much slower now than at any point in his career, and he's likely only going to get slower. A good arm and good instincts can make up for some of that, but I'm afraid his time being considered as one of the top defensive 3Bs in the league is likely over.

...and Byung-ho Park. Let's hope his career tends more towards those other well-known baseball men.

That's not necessarily surprising. The guy still has games like this in him every once in awhile. He had a 7-inning, 1-run start with 5 Ks for the Twins last season. It's just that these starts are few and far between for him at this point in his career. If the Twins had held on to Hill instead of signing Shoemaker, I don't think they'd be in a much different position than they are now. I think the back end of the rotation is pretty low on the list of reasons for the poor results this season.

To be honest, this seems like a fair idea given that most of the team is playing like they're suffering from a severe case of butt fungus.

I think they were betting on Shoemaker being a bounce-back candidate this season after his past few injury plagued seasons, plus he's seven years younger than Hill. For what it's worth, Hill hasn't exactly been lighting it up with Tampa Bay this season (4.26 ERA in 8 starts, averaging less than 5 innings per start), but he hasn't been as bad as Shoemaker. I think the guys mentioned in this article (plus the rest of the bullpen) are much more to blame for the poor start to the season than the fifth man in the rotation anyway.

I think we both know how the Pohlads (or anyone else in the Twins org) would answer a question like that. They're not going to throw the manager under the bus in the media, and they're certainly not going to fire the manager because of a bad six week stretch. Any dissatisfaction is going to be handled internally, and I think that would be the case with any MLB club. They've played 35 games, and there are 127 games remaining... I know we're all just frustrated and venting here, but we've got a long way to go and Rocco ain't going anywhere this season.

I'm curious about what specifically you'd like the media to do or say, and what you think would change because of it. I think the team and the organization is well aware of how badly this season is going and how frustrated all of the fans are. What answers would satisfy you? I don't think anyone really has any answers at this point.

It's incredible how every single high-leverage situation seems to turn out poorly for the Twins this season, on both sides of the ball. I know it feels like clockwork to all of us fans at this point, and it looks like the players have that same "here we go again" mindset in big situations. This team desperately needs someone to step up in some big situations and help everyone shake off that mindset. Maybe someone needs to sacrifice a chicken in the clubhouse or something?

Agreed that Rocco should try extending the starters a little more. But when the bats stop scoring in the second inning and every dang reliever comes in and gives up multiple runs, as was the case last night (and about 20 other times this season), there really is no simple solution. The starters can pitch deeper into games, but it still won't matter if the bullpen and late-game offense both continue to be this inept.

Has anyone else been having issues today with the homepage only showing posts from Randball's Stu? It was like that for me for several hours this morning, but I think it may be back to normal now. I couldn't figure out if I had some sort of filter turned on or if the site was glitching out somehow. I love Stu's posts as much as the next guy, but I don't mind some real news mixed in too ? Overall, nice job on the new site! I'm looking forward to seeing what it's capable of!

Just off the top of my head, I think trading Ryan Pressley for Jorge Alcalá and Gilberto Celestino in July 2018 could end up looking pretty good, assuming Alcalá continues to develop into a reliable late-innings reliever.

You've certainly created a narrative here, but it's lacking evidence, in my opinion. For example, you claim: This claim does not align with reality, as the Twins have had one of the best offenses in baseball in innings 1-3 so far this season (#2 in MLB in wRC+, #3 in OPS). It's the late innings that have been their downfall. I also don't see any evidence for your claim that "Rocco’s concern for injured players seems incredibly detrimental to the team." He and his staff seem to be managing injuries in a similar manner as they did over the past two seasons when they won division titles and had one of the best records in baseball. If anything, he has shown more willingness this season to bring guys back from injury more quickly (see Miguel Sanó's return from his recent IL stint) or have them play through injuries (it was reported that Buxton was playing through several nagging injuries before he was put on the IL with his hip flexor strain). I think his managing style this season has reflected the fact that the situation is more desperate and the team doesn't have the luxury of making sure everyone is 100% healthy when they play. I believe there are plenty of legitimate reasons to criticize Baldelli this year, but I don't think they'd be in a much different situation with a different manager at the helm. In general, I think managers in baseball have less of an impact on games than coaches in any other major sport, but they still tend to get a lot of the blame when things go wrong and a lot of credit with things go right. Baldelli has certainly seen both sides of this coin now in his tenure with the Twins. I know expectations were sky high going into this season, but I don't think the answer to the Twins' problems is to fire a manager that has just won back-to-back division titles because of a rough 30-game stretch.

Has there been any word yet on a possible vaccine to prevent the bullpen from vomiting all over themselves in the late innings?

This is a good example of why you should look at more than just batting average when comparing offensive output between players. Anyway, I'm not optimistic that any team will be looking to trade this early in the season, which is really unfortunate for the Twins. I think Texas is especially unlikely to make a trade considering this is their first year playing in front of fans at their shiny new ballpark. The best bet for immediate upgrades will be from St. Paul, but even those players are unlikely to help much. Hello darkness, my old friend...

I really don't understand this obsession some people have with Broxton. Is it just based on his spring training numbers? Haven't we learned by now how useless spring training statistics are? Broxton's numbers at the plate since 2017 make Jake Cave look like Babe Ruth...

He's pitched terribly this season, but what reason do you have for believing that he's a "cancer"? That's a pretty awful accusation...

I guess it's fine to hold this opinion as long as you acknowledge that it's not supported by any of his statistics...

Nice comment. Here's hoping his HR streak continues this week, but one thing I'm encouraged by is that his BABIP is at an unsustainably low .130 right now. Also, his expected batting average is about 180 points higher than his actual batting average. This tells me that we should expect more of those singles and doubles to start falling soon. I agree that the K/BB rate has to improve, but I think that will happen as he gains more experience.

I would call this start a decidedly mixed bag for Berríos. He did pitch to an ERA of 6, would you be happy about that most games? He looked so dominant for much of the game, but when he had a bad inning, he let it get away from him and was unable to keep a crooked number off the board. This seems to be his biggest recurring issue. If he could figure out how to limit the damage when his command starts to elude him toward the end of his starts, he might be able to take that next step towards being a true #1 starter.

Sanó has been more valuable at the plate than Polanco over his career and since the beginning of 2019 as well. I would like to see Sanó replace Polanco in the lineup when he returns. I think Polanco's best role at the moment would be as the super-utility guy that starts 3-4 times a week at 2B/3B/SS. I certainly don't want him getting more starts than Arraez at this point.

This is simply not true. It has been studied by physicists, and one study I read said that only about 15% of the exit velocity is dependent on the speed of the pitch, with the remaining 85% coming from the batter. A good example is home run derbies, where most of the pitches come in at 70mph or less, yet they produce some of the furthest hit balls you'll see. Exit velocity helps us see how squarely a ball was hit, and it's a pretty good indicator of power. It's why we all knew Kirilloff was about to break out of his slump even though he started off 0-15.

To clarify, those low numbers you see on the chase rate and whiff rate scales from Baseball Savant mean that he is worse than league average on both of those metrics. In other words, he is still chasing and whiffing more than most MLB hitters. Now, his stats in pretty much every other hitting category are obviously elite, so while he still might chase a little too much, he is making the most of the pitches he sees in or near the zone. I imagine pitchers will notice this eventually and start trying to get him to chase more, which is when Buxton will need to be able to adjust or risk seeing his success drop off quickly. The next step in his evolution at the plate will need to be improved plate discipline which should lead to a higher walk rate. If he can make that adjustment without sacrificing too much of his power and aggressiveness, his success should be more sustainable long-term.

Actually, Buxton's chase rate is one of the few areas where he has room for improvement this season. According to Baseball Savant, his chase rate is in the 10th-percentile of MLB, meaning that only 10% of the league chases more than he does. This is reflected in his very low walk rate, which is only in the 5th-percentile. However, he more than makes up for this with a K-rate that is below league average, and all of his batted ball stats are off the charts. He's not going to keep hitting like this all season, so I think the next step he needs to take to make his success more sustainable is chasing fewer pitches and taking more walks.

I think his main issue is his complete lack of any plate discipline, which leads to his lack of walks and a lot of weak contact. Sure it's nice when he hits a homer on a pitch at eye-level, but 99 times out of 100, swinging at that pitch will result in a miss or a weak pop fly.