Only Here in Negative

I agree not to sit players who are uninjured any more than you would normally (and perhaps less since clinching early means you can rest more). But Kepler was banged up, Gonzo is fresh off injury, Polanco has been battling several injuries, and Cruz has wrist issues that won't get better without surgery. Those guys will be key to any playoff game so I think you can game theory this and get some guys some days off. I do hope Game 3 of Cleveland was an aberration and we won't see everyone sitting. That was the day after a tense doubleheader so I'd like to think it was. But sitting Kep a few games to get healthy and cycling Rosario, Cruz, Polanco, and Cron in and off the bench seems wise.

That's the kind of axiomatic thinking that baseball is moving away from. I see it as more of a guideline than a hard-and-fast rule. Getting to third has some value, especially with a catcher who already had a PB and a young inexperienced White Sox bullpen that threw a lot of innings yesterday. The play was close, there was some luck involved, and if we take Rosario at his word, he understandably missed the CF coming way over into RF to back up that play. I'm not saying it was a good play but I don't think it's some boneheaded play that he should get chewed out for (as several posters have indicated). Go watch the replay. That's not admiring. He didn't bolt out of the box but he finished his backswing and got moving to first. I'd like to see that pause gone too but that's modern baseball. Many/most players do it. He was motoring to get to 3rd on that in the first place.

Astudillo is having a terrible year. 170 ABs and a 72 OPS+. Even with last year's hotness he's at a career 95 OPS+. Both of those are okay for a backup catcher but that's not a guy to write home about. The eye test confirms it. Pitchers have figured out he'll chase and so they're throwing him stuff off the plate so he'll make weak contact. He has yet to respond to the league's book on him. Defensively, he looks erratic behind the plate. The throws behind runners are exciting but there's a lot of danger there too. Castro seems a bit better but not significantly so. I'd be fine letting Castro go this offseason and making Astudillo the backup but for now, Castro is a better player, especially since I expect Garver to start most if not all playoff games. Astudillo does have some positional flexibility but he's not particularly good anywhere. Playoffs before the WS are not as much about playing bench players and the Twins don't have a lot of guys you'd pinch hit for in the lineup (maybe Schoop/Arraez based on handedness?) So that's not so useful, especially since Gonzalez can play just about anywhere. Cave is a better option because he's actually an OF. The Twins will need four of those in case of injury. Arraez/Astudillo are not good options for a playoff game. In fact, you may see Wade instead of a 13th pitcher if they want 5 OF and a pinch runner for Sano/Cruz. Astudillo has a future with the Twins as a bridge to Rortvedt/Jeffers but he has no business on a playoff roster. He can still be on the bench and be a teammate.

Maybe he's in the pen but stretches out to be a longer guy so they can get him up to 100-110 innings.

Go watch it on MLB.com. He didn't sprint out of the box but he was getting moving right away. This wasn't a 2-3 second stand around. By the time it landed he was around first.

I just watched the replay and he seemed to be running about as fast as he does. The RF got to that ball quickly. That said, it is Daniel Palka. I (and a quick Google search) don't associate him with a strong arm. Probably a pretty close play at third. Also worth noting that the ball was almost caught by a diving 2B. Cruz likely was running straight to 2B to take away a force and couldn't take that slight parabolic path to third you can take on a sure hit. That might explain it?

1.) It's super weird watching him. Sometimes there seems to be a ton of movement and other times he's straight as an arrow and you're right, guys can catch up to that. 2.) More and more I think that Graterol is going to be more of an end-of-year guy if he's a starter next year. That inconsistency is not weird for a young guy. I'd like to see him get that shot, even if it hurts next year's team a bit. If he can get movement on that pitch, he can be a front end starter. 3.) Depends how many pitchers the Twins take. Injuries to Adrianza and Buxton might mean the Twins only take 12 position players. The regular nine with Gonzo replacing Buck, Schoop, Castro, and Cave. I just don't see much point in a Torreys or Miller or Wade and though Astudillo is a fun story, he hasn't hit well this year and a 3rd catcher seems pretty useless in the division series. That would leave 13 spots available for pitchers. Berrios, Odo, Perez, Gibby, Rogers, Romo, Littel, Duffey, and May seem given for nine. Thorpe and Smeltzer have earned it for 11. So you're looking at Dobnak, Stashak, and Graterol for two spots. I like all three but Graterol might be the wild card in there and has the most upside. I'd bet on Dobnak and Graterol?

You need to watch the replay. He didn't stand at home for 2-3 seconds admiring his shot. He certainly didn't sprint out of the box (and he should) but he was moving up the line almost immediately. It is true that if he sprints, he ends up on 3rd. But I don't think you need to rip him for it. Rosario seems like the kind of guy where being caught at 3rd is enough to reinforce that lesson anyways.

They should work on him in the offseason though. If he doesn't hit .350 going forward, he may get pushed out of the infield and into a utility role. His metrics at 2B are below average and pretty awful at SS and 3B. Being able to play a decent LF would help his career longevity. Of course he could make that a moot point by continuing to hit .350 or developing pop. But agreed that he's not an OF and its because Buxton/Kepler are injured that he's even out there. Jake Cave is not a competent CFer either.

1.) Even if the Clevelanders go 10-0 the rest of the way, the Twins win going 7-3 against the Royals and Tigers. If Cleveland goes 8-2 (still hard given the Nationals will care and the Phillies are a decent team), the Twins need to go 5-5. Its not arrogant, its smart to sit guys who are banged up. 2.) The pitching has been bad? No way, they've been pretty solid. Odo and Berrios looked really good. The pen looks to be solid too. They dominated in Cleveland and the guys who have been hit this series have been regression to the mean (May) or not likely to be on the playoff team but pitching because its the 12th (Harper). Perez hasn't even been that bad. Will we be confident in the playoffs with him? No. Is he capable of shutting down a team on a given day? Yeah. Buy some antacids Twins fans. 3.) That's harsh on Rosario. After the game, Rosie said he didn't see the CF coming over. That's a split second decision made by a runner coming around second on a play that he can't fully see because he already turned second. Not all CFers come over to right at such a shallow angle on that, its more typical that they would be back at the fence too. The ball came off the wall right back to a guy running the opposite way as the throw. And it still took a perfect throw. Its not ideal to get the third out at third but I think in this situation, it's not that bad of a call. Rosario is an aggressive player and that has helped and hurt the Twins. This one isn't particularly boneheaded - equal parts unlucky and overly aggressive. I don't mind the latter in a game where the Twins needed a bit of a spark after being shut down the first five innings.

It'll be interesting to see which door the FO chooses: Door 1: Trust that three of Thorpe, Graterol, Smeltzer, Littel, Stewart etc. are ready to start, with potential reinforcement by Alcala or other MILB prospects. Maybe sign a cheap veteran starter but focus on adding a few bullpen pieces to Dyson, Rogers, Duffey and May. Door 2: Go get two to three multi-year high-to-medium end starters. This is more of an all-in move by the Twins and may require a trade since impact free agent starters don't generally hit FA. The pitchers who aren't involved in trades solidify the back end of a bullpen. Door 3: Go get one high-to-medium end starter and hope that the aforementioned guys can fill the back of the rotation. Might mean you go get one bullpen arm to augment the back end of the pen. The nice thing is that the Twins have options and can read the market. If there aren't going to be pitchers available (e.g. the trade market is weak, the Astros resign Cole, Straousburg gets dinged up in the playoffs and opts in, etc.) and the price is high, they can pivot to the bullpen market. If there are some nice solid starters out there or the Twins can take advantage of newer tanking teams (the Pirates for Archer comes to mind), then the Twins can get out of the risky bullpen market and play it by ear. FWIW, I like Door #3. I'd like to see them go get a strong #2 to line up behind Berrios for the next few years (someone like Carl Pavano) and trust that their pitching-minded FO can fill in the rest. Smeltzer, Thorpe, and a few free agent retreads can fill out the back end until the deadline. It really seems like a few of these current relievers should stay as such - Littel, maybe Graterol? The Twins this year have shown how a deep pen can cover a few starters who only go through the lineup twice. I wouldn't mind seeing that continue, especially for an AL team with a lot of versatile position players that enable you to carry one more pitcher.

At $8 million, they'll tender him unless they see something in medicals. There's really no chance they're going to see anything since they didn't see anything when they traded for him. This isn't something that shows up on medical exams clearly. And again, biceps tendinitis is not some huge lingering issue. The prescription for it is rest. That's hard to get during the season but not particularly difficult in the offseason. Maybe he's injured next Spring but it won't be for biceps tendinitis. You're sticking to a position that doesn't make sense. The amount involved is so small that the reward far outweighs the risk. Dyson has been a very good reliever every year since 2014 (except 2017 notably). Guys like that get multiple years at $8 mill on the free market.

1.) How often would you be able to prove a leak? Especially with 7 figures on the line. All it takes is an intern seeing the paperwork or overhearing a conversation. Or an exec's kid who is chatty at school. Seems hard to punish that severely - along with the optics of fining someone for outing a cheater. 2.) Players like Braun leaked it because it fit their narrative (false in Braun's case - he really should've been hated more for what he did). So I think it would be tough to say that players would never leak it, sometimes it might make sense to get out in front of the PR. 3.) Overall, I think we can all agree that this process needs more transparency. If there's a reduction, they need to give some detail so fans can understand what happened. Our view of Pineda could be markedly different based on why that was reduced and we can only speculate now. And that timeline seems important too.

You said that you expected him to be nontendered. That's insanity. Could he be done? Yeah. Any pitcher could. Is he more likely than any other? Not particularly.

That's fair. I wonder what the agreement between league and player says about that. It would seem to be in the best interest of teams to be included but that makes leaks probable. Also hard to see how the team wouldn't know about the investigation - the league would talk to the trainers right? Interesting angle though.

Prospects always seem flashier in the rearview mirror. Jaylin Davis was a nice story but this won't be one that haunts the Twins: (1) I believe he'd have been exposed to the Rule 5 draft this year. The Twins don't have a ton of room on the 40 man roster so he was potentially lost anyways. (2) Davis had an unbelievable year but that's really his first extended success. He was a middling player all the way up the chain. Some guys Dozier expectations but odds are that Davis had a hot year. (3) Outside of September, there's no real spot for Davis now. The Twins have four OF on the roster for next year with Gonzalez (I guess Rosario could be traded but that seems unlikely given his importance to a playoff team). Cave is less than 2 years older, is still cheap, and has done it at the MLB level and he's just the 5th OF. Arraez and Adrianza also will be around and have OF experience. Hard to see a lot of room for Davis unless things really change. (4) Davis seems likely to be passed by a number of better prospects in the near future. Kiriloff, Rooker, and Larnach are poised to move up to the MLB team in the next 18 months. There's also another wave in Badoo, Wallner, Celestino in A ball - any one of them could make a big jump. Not all of those will make it but the Twins are stacked in the OF. (5) Small sample size but Davis has struggled thus far with the Giants. He could turn it around but adjusting from AAA to MLB is very hard. No one would be surprised if he's more of a AAAA player. The Twins did exactly what you should do with guys like Davis, trade them for help at positions of scarcity. Davis was unlikely to be an impact for the Twins due to a short window of opportunity and may even have been lost in the Rule 5. Getting Dyson for next year is a great grab, even if Dyson never recovers (though he should, this is not a serious injury).

This is insanity. Dyson has been a very good reliever for two years now. He has biceps tendinitis. While that sucks for this year, there's no reason to think that six months isn't waaaaaaay more than enough time to come back from that. He'll be non-tendered? That's a pretty big hot take. He'll be a nice bullpen piece next year. The bigger question is the Twins starting staff. If they decide to rely on guys like Thorpe and Littel and Graterol, then there's a need to go shop the bullpen arms. If they trade/sign a few starters, then they can probably rely on their internal options. with the understanding that the bullpen is a crapshoot - most of Twins Daily was ready to flush the season down the toilet at the deadline when the Twins didn't make extensive bullpen moves and the bullpen has been the backbone of the team's success this past six weeks. Go figure.

It does feel weird doesn't it? Like all the stats show it's smart to PH and there's a part of you that just thinks, "Go with the magic!" I do worry for next year that we're going to expect too much of Arraez like we did with Danny Santana and Astudillo. He can't possible live up to this season. Enjoying it while the ride is in motion but hoping we can let him suffer some growing pains at some point.

See I think I'd be more interested in the contact if it was tied or they were down one. At that point, the one run via contact is useful. But up one in the 7th, two guys on and only one out, I think Schoop makes more sense. He's the most likely to blow open the game, which is what you should be looking for there. It would obviously also depend on how good that lefty was against righties. Not all lefties are the same.

Arraez came through with that weird single but I hope that come playoff time, Rocco understands that he should be pinch hitting Schoop against a lefty reliever in a big late situation. Schoop has a .965 OPS against lefties and those numbers are even higher against lefty relievers. Arraez is a big enough threat to summong that lefty and pivoting to Schoop could be the difference in a playoff game. Arraez is only a .707 OPS against lefties so there's a clear platoon advantage to be gained. Its not a defensive downgrade either, they seem about the same to my untrained eye. I guess I would make an exception on situation. Last night the Twins were up and they had one out so contact was preferential to power (though worth noting that if that ball wasn't cursed, it's an easy play for Moncado to cut down the runner at the plate). But if the Twins are down, I want Schoop, destroyer of LHP.

In fact, though it worked yesterday because Arraez's ball scooted by third base all on its own, Schoop really should've been pinch hitting with a lefty reliever. I hope that's the plan come playoff time.

Yeah, at this point you kind of wish that the Twins had tacked on an option year with Schoop (if he'd have been down for it). Not because you'd keep him but because he'd be a trade chip this offseason. Not a huge one but you'd get something for him. Its too bad the only reward the Twins get for making a nice call on him when he was down is a part-time 2Bman for one year - no one could have predicted Arraez would take his job so completely.

Schoop has a .768 OPS in high leverage situations. That's not bad. He also has a .965 OPS against LHP and those stats are higher against LH relievers. He's ideal for a late inning PH appearance, especially if a team brings in a lefty to face Arraez.

This was in response to people upset that he screwed the Twins when they were on the cusp of the playoffs. That just isn't true based on timeline.

That's why they signed schoop for one year. They knew they were likely a year away from middle infield solutions like arraez and Gordon and lewis. People looking to ditch schoop are shortsighted. He's an excellent b at against lefties. He and arraez will platoon the playoffs. Both will make excellent bench bats.