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minman1982

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Everything posted by minman1982

  1. minman1982
    From 2019 to 2021, Sano averaged 239 Ks per 162 games and hit for an average of 0.229 in 1026 at bats. That would seem to be a large enough sample to say who Sano is as a batter. Outside of 30 or 40 homeruns he might hit, he is a complete black hole in terms of offense.
  2. minman1982
    I have to believe there is someone out there who is going to offer Sano a minor league deal and ship him to AAA just to take a chance. I don't think it will be the Twins but someone will spend a couple hundred thousand just to see if Sano still has something.
  3. minman1982
    I think the problem with trying to calculate the odds of successfully stealing is that there are so many variables to consider. Many of these are hard to quantify and use to predict the outcome of the play. How good is the catcher at throwing out potential base stealers? How fast does the pitcher deliver to the plate? Does the pitcher have a great/poor pickoff move which changes how much a player can lead off first? How quick are the 2B and/or SS at applying a tag? How fast is the runner at first? How fast does the pitcher throw? Where is the pitch going to be located? This might be one of those plays where a large sample size evens out some of the variability in the play over the long run but this will require a team to steal a lot of bases. If a team gets the reputation for one that is aggressive on the base paths, it should change how other teams approach them and thus alter the odds.
  4. minman1982
    Found an answer to my question. Looks like a success rate of about 75% is when stealing second becomes advantageous from an expected runs perspective. If the Twins are only successful about two thirds of the time, this would probably explain why they aren't running more. https://www.math.emory.edu/~ckeyes3/blog_stealing_bases.html
  5. minman1982
    Baserunning: it is interesting this is the first article I have seen that mentioned this when the Twins were downright awful in this area last season. So many blunders on real basic things. I would also like to see them more active on the basepaths. Try to steal a base every now and then. The Twins were dead last in both stolen base attempts and stolen bases last season. The Twins were successful about two thirds of the time when they did steal. Does anyone know what the break-even point is for stealing second? At what success rate does it become advantageous to try to steal and risk the out?
  6. minman1982
    There is no deal that is worth bringing a guy like this on. I would rather watch the Twins lose 120 games in 2023 than have Bauer on the team.
  7. minman1982
    How about $60M for 2 years? That is what the Twins would have been on the hook for had Correa not opted out right? I think Correa's camp has completely screwed themselves.
  8. minman1982
    From everything I have read, the Twins made a competitive offer. Correa chose a few more years and some more money over a larger annual paycheck. Can't say I really blame the guy. I think the focus should turn to Rodon first and then Swanson second. If I was to list the needs of this team going into the offseason, I would have put them in this order: 1. A starting catcher who can hit the ball 2. A clear top of the rotation starting pitcher: they have a lot of solid depth pieces but lack the one dude you go to when you need to dominate a game, protect the bullpen, and get the win. 3. Figure out what to do at shortstop (do you sign someone long term or plug the hole until the calvary arrives from the farm?) 4. An impact relief pitcher 5. A MLB caliber outfielder, preferably a center fielder that can play the 80 games Buxton will not play. The AL Central feels like it will be a winnable division again this season. The Tigers are a mess. The Royals are still re-building. The White Sox have some good pieces but as we saw last year could fall apart. The Guardians are good but beatable.
  9. minman1982
    Any reliever should be able to come into the ninth inning up by three runs and get out of there with a win more often than not. The idea of a "closer" who you save for the ninth inning regardless of what is happening is kind of antiquated. Tie game, bases loaded, no one out in the seventh should be a situation for your best pitcher out of the bullpen. If you best bullpen pitcher is your closer and you refuse to bring him out except for a save, you probably will not get to use him.
  10. minman1982
    There are some things that are really hard to quantify. Defense happens to be one of them. Relief pitching can also be hard. Think of the value of a reliever who you bring into a tie ballgame with no outs and bases loaded in the sixth inning and gets the next three guys out. This is obviously an important situation in the game and a valuable performance that might be lost in pitching stats (1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, not that exciting). Is the 40 save closer who only pitches the ninth when you have a lead really more valuable to a team than the reliever that has proven they can be trusted in the most important and highest leverage game situations? How do you know a reliever can be trusted in these situations?
  11. minman1982
    The price for Ohtani is likely way too high for the Twins to realistically get him.
  12. minman1982
    I am fine with a stop gap option at SS and see what happens with Lewis, Martin, and/or Lee can provide beyond 2023. If they can get someone who isn't a complete liability for $5-7M, why not? This also frees up a ton of money to pursue and catcher, another OF (someone who can play RF for sure), and a top end SP.
  13. minman1982
    Let's look at the top of the list. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts are both going to long term deals in the $30-35M/yr range. It would not shock me if neither of these guys changes teams. Correa is probably number three behind these two in terms of free agent shortstops. Dansby Swanson is probably about the same as Correa or at least not that far behind. Beyond that you have some serviceable and cheaper options in Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias but neither of those would seem like a long term solution. Tim Anderson may not return to the White Sox, so he could be available. The question I have is how many teams are in the market for a long term (say 6 to 8 years) contract worth $30M+/year? Could the Twins get Correa again (or Turner/Bogaerts) on another short term, creative contract with a high annual value but short term? If they pursue a cheaper option, would the remaining $25-30M be spent somewhere else (pitching)? I think the FO assumes that either Royce Lewis or Austin Martin is going to be the future answer. If a player like Trea Turner fell into their laps (I doubt he will), would they pull the trigger on a 8-10 year/$250-350M deal?
  14. minman1982
    Interesting article. It shows you a couple of things. First, how hard it is to actually predict which young players will actually become contributors at the Major League level. Second is that there are so many things that can derail a young players development. I would be curious to know how this stacks up to other organizations.
  15. minman1982
    I am going with the Mariners. To get to the World Series, they are going to have to beat the Cheaters from Houston and then either the Evil Empire of New York or some Statue in Cleveland. Also, they have a fun group of guys that don't seem to ever quit playing. When I was watching the game yesterday, I said in the 5th when the Blue Jays were up 8-1, "well, time for Seattle to think about protecting their bullpen for tomorrow's game". Apparently, no one mentioned this idea to the Mariners. I have to respect a team that still goes all out when they are down 8-1.
  16. minman1982
    Not surprised at all. The only way he was going to stay with the Twins is if he got hurt and had little to no chance of getting any type of long term deal in free agency. I don't see him getting $325M in this market though.
  17. minman1982
    Might as well give him a chance to pitch for the Big League team. I see him probably starting in AAA next season but being one of the first ones up when injuries or ineffectiveness show up.
  18. minman1982
    Injuries certainly hurt the team this year but one needs to have a back-up plan. I agree with the sentiment that the Twins should not be dumpster diving for pitchers. Take the money that they were going to spend on Correa when he chooses to leave and find a top end starting pitcher. With new FA SP, Ryan, Mahle, and Maeda, the Twins should be in better shape to start 2023 than they have been all this season. Adding another bullpen piece wouldn't hurt but the Twins bullpen has actually been decent since the All-Star Break. Before the break, they were dead last in WAR. Since the break, the Twins have had the 5th best bullpen in the league. It has been the offense (or lack thereof) over the two months that has sunk this team. As far as Byron Buxton is concerned, assume that he is going to play about half the season. That means we need someone else in CF for the other half of the season. For what he is being paid, half a season of Buxton is a bargain given how good he can be. Relying on Buxton as the everyday center fielder is not a plan. His presence should be the icing on the cake, not the cake itself.
  19. minman1982
    The first and last points really stand out to me. The writer brings up Pagan but there are plenty of other Twins relievers that have not been able to close out games. The Twins have blown 26 saves as a team which is tied for third worst in MLB. Since the Twins have only had 51 save opportunities all season, this means that they only converted about 50% of possible saves. Imagine what happens if they convert 65% or 70% of those opportunities. They are probably talking about how they are going to compose their roster in October if this was the case. The baserunning has bothered me all season. They don't bother to even try to steal. They don't take bases when they should and the try to take bases when they shouldn't. There seems to be a pure lack of fundamentals in this area of the game. This is one area the team can improve without adding a single player this off season.
  20. minman1982
    Looks like Cleveland pretty much sealed the deal tonight. Twins have some work to do in the off season if they want to go to the playoffs in 2023. I always thought that 2023 and/or 2024 would be the best chances for this group to make a run in the playoffs. They are in a better place than they were a year ago but still have some room to improve.
  21. minman1982
    Unless both Chicago and Cleveland decide to play down to their competition, there is no way the Twins are close to first a week from now. The Twins have to hope to sweep Cleveland next week and win almost all their upcoming games against Chicago to have a chance (and win some games against the bottom feeders they will be playing in between).
  22. minman1982
    At the beginning of the season, I said that the Twins were probably about a 0.500 team and the third best in the Central. I said they have a chance at the division but everything has to go their way. Looking ahead to next year, it is clear that more help on the pitching side of things is needed. I think we can all agree that the defense is much improved this season over the last season. For comparison, the Twins have allowed 592 runs while scoring 605. The averages for current playoff teams in the AL are 521 runs allowed and 622 runs scored. The Twins offense would be middle of the pack among playoff teams in the AL but none of the current playoff teams has allowed as many runs as the Twins. Some have allowed far fewer (the Yankees about 100 less, the Astros about 140 less). The Twins seem to have a lot of 4th and 5th level starters but not anyone who is truly a top level arm. Maybe Maeda and Mahle come back next year and provide that one-two punch you need as a true contender but I would not count on it. If the Twins are serious, they need a top level free agent starting pitcher. Best case scenario: they have three great pitchers (new player, Maeda, Mahle) with a bunch of other guys with major league experience to round things out. Who knows? Maybe a fourth guy really takes a step forward (Ryan, Winder, anyone) and Maeda ends up being the fourth best on the team. Worst case scenario: Where they are now.
  23. minman1982
    I agree. Let's set Duran up to face the part of the order which is the most dangerous toward the end of a close game. He is the best relief pitcher, so don't put him in the traditional 9th inning closer box. I absolutely hate it when a lesser relief pitcher gives up a game tying or lead changing hit in the 8th to the other teams best batter because they are saving him for the 9th to close the game.
  24. minman1982
    Does anyone remember the stories about how Santana tipped his pitches? Basically, the batters knew when the changeup was coming and still couldn't hit it. Duran is something special. A 100 MPH pitch with that kind of movement is ridiculous. There is absolutely nothing a batter can do with that pitch unless they get incredibly lucky.
  25. minman1982
    When Sano was on, he could hit anything out of the ballpark. When he was off, it was strikeout after strikeout. I wish the guy luck at his next stop. I know the Twins have held on this long because of a guy named David Ortiz, who they probably gave up on too early back in the day. Maybe Sano still becomes Ortiz v2.0, but probably not at this point.
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