Matt Braun

“What’s that? An article about signing Josh Donaldson months after it occurred? Good luck with that”. While the ghostly voice of criticism rings valid, there remains at least one more major point to dissect regarding the Donaldson signing.At this point, every person who holds even just a passing interest in the Twins has given their two cents on signing Josh Donaldson. Some have talked about how he may influence the next wave of prospects, most have concluded that he was the last shot the Twins had at making an impact move, and one Twins Daily writer directly compared him to Jesus. Despite that massive range of topics, there is one point that has yet to be mentioned so. The questions regarding the strength of the Twins’ position players were limited coming into the offseason. They had just smashed about a billion homers and seemed set at every position in the field. However, one of the major realistic concerns was whether or not Miguel Sanó should stay at third base long term. He still possessed the raw tools to man the hot corner but had been dreadful there by basically any defensive stat since his debut. The idea that Sanó would move to first base became more inevitable than there being drugs at a Led Zeppelin concert. Signing Donaldson was the nail in the coffin for Sanó’s future at third base. But beyond the short-term coverage of the position, Donaldson also provides the long-term stability that the Twins secretly needed. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote about the Twins’ farm system on Fangraphs a few months ago. A quick scan of the players on the list reveals that they see just three future third baseman in the Twins’ farm system with Jose Miranda being the only one with playing time above A ball. MLB.com sees a similar picture as just two of the prospects on the Twins’ list are marked as third baseman. Minor league positions are hardly ever a life sentence for a player – Alex Bregman notoriously played mainly at SS in the minors – but they often illuminate what the team’s long-term plan is for a player. A team likely doesn’t believe in a player’s capability to play a position if they won’t allow them to play that position in games they can afford to lose. So the next immediate prospect who would realistically man third base for the Twins was the aforementioned Miranda who spent the vast majority of 2019 with the Fort Myers Miracle at A+. Digging around through other internal options would have yielded names like Ehire Adrianza, Marwin González, Willians Astudillo, and Luis Arráez. Adrianza and González would have been fine options but both bring more value to the team when their role is not well defined. Both players serve well as break-in-case-of-emergency options for if (when) something goes wrong. Astudillo has little experience at third and his awful 2019 brings into question his viability at the major league level, so he would have been a poor choice as well. Arráez has been locked in as the future second baseman and I am unaware of any players who could play two positions on the field at the same time. One interesting option for the position would have been (and still can be) Royce Lewis. Lewis had just four innings at third base in 2019 with Pensacola but almost strictly played there during his time with the Arizona Fall League. One of his knocks has been his potential to play shortstop which may lead to a position change to either the outfield or third base in the future. It’s not unusual for players to be poor at shortstop yet great at third base as Manny Machado proved when he confusingly changed positions in 2018. Knowing this, Lewis may possess the ability to play third base but only time will tell. The Twins can now rest well at night knowing that they have third base locked down for the next few years. They solved a problem that had the potential to be longer term than most likely had realized. Now all that is left to do is to watch Donaldson bring some rain to Target Field. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

I didn't mention Colina because he's still a starter in my eyes. Probably should have put him in the honorable mentions, though.

Benjamin Franklin once said that the only guarantees in life are “death, taxes, and relievers with options constantly moving between AAA and the majors”. Who knew that he was such a baseball fan?While that quote might be false, the premise of it is still quite true. Every year without fail the players that shuttle between Rochester and Minnesota the most are ones of the relief-pitcher variety. There are a number of reasons why this is true but the call for fresh arms does more than just revive a tired bullpen. Calling up new players allows for them to showcase what they can do at the major league level and sometimes those players stick around. It’s no secret that the Twins bullpen improved mightily last year as the season went on because of capable players getting opportunities to perform. Relievers like Cody Stashak and Zack Littell became reliable late-inning arms despite the fact that neither player started the season in the majors. Knowing that this outcome is a possibility for some players, let’s look into a few names who may follow a similar path and be used out of the bullpen for the Twins in 2020. To qualify for this arbitrary list, a player must not have pitched at AAA in 2019 and was used out of the bullpen for the majority of their innings. The reason is that these qualifications applied to Stashak last year yet he still ended up in the majors. RHP Ryan Mason: The 25-year-old righty was phenomenal at AA in 2019. He struck out nearly 30% of the batters he faced (29.8%) and walked less than 5% (4.3%) of them. The only thing holding Mason back is the fact that he only threw 23 innings last season. If he’s healthy and performing, he could carve out a path to the major league roster in 2020. RHP Hector Lujan: On the surface, Lujan had quite a strange season in 2019. He held a modest 7.84 K/9 at A+ that jumped up to 9.87 at AA. Yet, his K% stayed stable in going from 22.4% all the way up to 22.6%. How is this possible? His walk rate jumped up by 5.1% (4.4% to 9.5%) after the promotion to AA. That number is quite ugly but if he regains the command he had at A+, then he may see himself in the majors at some point in 2020. RHP Tom Hackimer: The side-armer and elite Twitter user ate hitters alive in 2019. While holding an ERA of just 2.54, he also happened to strike out 30.6% of all hitters he saw. Much like Lujan, command is the only thing holding Hackimer back as he gave 11.0% of all the batters he faced a free pass to first base in 2019. But even with this, he punches enough tickets and garners enough groundballs to potentially claw his way onto the Twins roster in 2020. RHP Derek Molina: Strikeouts have not been a problem for Molina so far in his professional career. The lowest K/9 he has held at any level so far was his 11.34 mark in 2017. Molina struck out an astonishing 36.3% of hitters in 2019. For reference, Aroldis Chapman punched out 36.2% of hitters last year. Molina threw just over 40 innings last season and has yet to play at AA but he has an outside shot at making the majors if this level of domination continues. RHP Moises Gomez: Much like Molina, Gomez is a long shot for playing in the majors but his numbers are too eye-popping to dismiss. Gomez punched out hitters at a slightly higher rate than Molina (36.8%) and allowed just a .149 batting average against. He has not played at AA yet but could jump a few levels if this trend of missing bats doesn’t end. Honorable Mentions: LHP Jovani Moran: Moran struck out nearly a third of all the hitters he faced in 2019 but also walked 15.1% of batters. That kind of walk rate is going to hold him back from a promotion to the majors anytime soon. LHP Sam Clay: Clay played at AAA last season which is why he didn’t make the standard list but his groundball rate of 71.3% last season was too insane not to mention. He also did not surrender a homer at all in 2019. Clay is currently in camp for spring training so he may make the majors sooner than anyone else in this list. RHP Adam Bray: Bray also dabbled in AAA last season but was lights out at AA with a 2.51 FIP there. AAA was less kind to him as his strikeout rate plummeted there but a rebound could set Bray up nicely for playing time with the Twins in 2020. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

As we sit and wait until the first spring training games officially begin, it has become clear that the Kenta Maeda trade will be the cherry on top of the offseason for the Twins. Despite a somewhat slow start, the Twins ended up with a bevy of starting pitchers, Josh Donaldson, and the aforementioned Maeda among other acquisitions in their attempt to recreate the magic of the 2019 team. Yet, it feels like there is a piece still missing.Not long after the end of the World Series, GM Thad Levine made statements regarding the plans for the Twins for the offseason. The magic phrase “impact starting pitching” was uttered and every Twins fan became quite pleased when they heard this. It has been no secret that the starting rotation has been the Achilles heel for the team for a while so to have a front office member acknowledge this need felt refreshing. While it was never specified, Twins fans understood that this “impact starting pitching” would have to be acquired within reason. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg were fun pipe dreams but nothing more. Instead, focus was turned onto the likes of Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. All three pitchers fit inside the Twins’ implied pragmatic wheelhouse and it felt as if the Twins would actually end up with one of these players on the team. As we know, this isn’t the case. All three signed elsewhere and the Twins were left with the fact that it was Josh Donaldson or bust. Fortunately, they did not end up busting here and they saved the offseason by signing the former MVP. Yet, there remains a missing piece. The goal for the Twins should have been to acquire a starting pitcher better than Jake Odorizzi. This isn’t a knock on Odorizzi but instead a reflection that a strong top end of a starting rotation can take a team deep into the playoffs. Having Odorizzi, an All-Star coming off a 4.3 fWAR season, be the third starting pitcher would have been the optimal way to legitimize the Twins as a threat to the AL as a whole. But that didn’t happen. Odorizzi will start the season as the number 2 starter with José Berríos likely being the Opening Day starter. This top two will certainly prove to be formidable but a team needs more than two starting pitchers to make a playoff run. The combo of Kenta Maeda and Michael Pineda will likely be passable but passable doesn’t cut it if a team wants to make a deep playoff run. A team needs quality over quantity and the Twins don’t have that quality just yet. Using 2019 fWAR, the top three starters for the Twins (Berríos, Odorizzi, and Pineda) combined for 11.3 fWAR. fWAR is used to calculate the value of a given player. Generally the guideline goes that a player worth 2 fWAR is an average MLB player, a 3-4 fWAR player is pretty good, a 5-6 fWAR player is an All-Star, and anything higher is an MVP candidate. Using Minnesota math, the value of the top three can be reached by adding each player's fWAR together. Now, let’s compare the Twins’ top three starters with the top three of every other playoff team in 2019: Astros (Cole, Verlander, Greinke): 19.2 Nationals (Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin): 17 Dodgers (Buehler, Ryu, Kershaw): 13.2 Rays (Morton, Snell, Yarbrough): 11.5 (11.1 if you swap Yarbrough for Glasnow) Cardinals (Flaherty, Mikolas, Wainwright): 9.4 Yankees (Paxton, Tanaka, Germán): 8.8 Braves (Soroka, Fried, Teheran): 8.6 Brewers (Woodruff, Houser, Davies): 6.5 Athletics (Bassitt, Anderson, Fiers): 5.8 There seems to be a positive correlation between the strength of a team’s top three starters and how far they made it in the playoffs. The Twins ended up more in the middle of the pack for playoff teams in this stat which might be more of a reflection of the quality of starting pitching across baseball. But if the Twins want to take the step into being a World Series contender, they will need that elusive great third starter. They might have it in Rich Hill but expecting him to carry such a burden would be foolish considering his path recovering from injury. The good news is that the playoffs don’t start tomorrow and the Twins look to be set up well to carry themselves until the trade deadline at least. If everything plays out like it appears it should, the Twins should finally pull the trigger in acquiring the elite starting pitcher that would give them a starting rotation the rest of the teams will be envious of. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Well unfortunately I don't live in Seattle so I can't help you there.

There’s something I have to admit. I’ve been secretly betraying the trust of all of you good readers by masquerading as a Midwesterner. The truth is, I live nowhere near the Midwest and have been a Twins fan in the state of Washington for over a decade now.Before you brandish your pitchforks, do know that I was born in Wisconsin and most of my family has roots in the Midwest. I also practice good Midwest traditions like saying “ope” whenever I’m trying to sneak by someone and describing something I enjoy as “not too bad” or “could be worse”. Throw in my incredible passive-aggression and I might as well be a resident of Edina right now. So calm down. My family moved to Washington when I was just six, so my early memories of the Midwest are fairly limited beyond playing Gameboy games and getting lost in the snow. Because of this, I don’t really have an understanding of what it means to be a “normal” Twins fan. My normal is being forced to watch the team on TV for 158-159 games out of the season outside of the one time they come to Seattle every year. This means that my family has to be a bit more resourceful when it comes to following the team. We have to plan to go to these games months in advance instead of having the opportunity to make a spur-of-the-moment decision to go to the ballpark. This does offer some benefits. Or, at least, it used to. Players are more inclined to give autographs to fans in away cities and so I collected autographs ever since we started going to Safeco Field. At home, I have three baseballs filled with autographs from Twins legends like Bert Blyleven, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Torii Hunter. I also have some autographs from some absolute non-legends like Casey Fien and Kevin Jepsen, but you can’t win them all. Unfortunately, I had to give up acquiring autographs a few years back because no one wants to sign for a sad-looking 18-year-old. Still, I will always have the memories of getting to the ballpark right when it opens just to stand near the third base dugout and politely ask (harass) players to sign for me. There was also that one time I hauled ass across the stadium just to get a signature from Kevin Slowey. True story. Luckily, the status of the local team (Mariners) more or less forced the home fans to create a welcoming environment for fans like me. I mean, what kind of crap can a Mariners fan talk? Instead of harassment, we are usually met with kindness from these fans and I have had a number of pleasant interactions with Mariners fans even during games where they’re getting smoked. Seriously, my family was at the game last season where the Twins won 18-4 and we honestly stopped cheering around the 10th run because it just felt cruel. TV watching is a bit different as well. I don’t get Fox Sports North, so I have to consult either MLB.TV or other, more questionable means to get my fix. This usually results in missing some legendary local commercials (save big money at Menards, anyone?), but it’s just the small price I pay for living in this state. In fact, I would argue that my ritual for watching games on the West Coast is superior to what most of you all go through in the Midwest. The game starts two hours earlier so I never have problems with having to stay up late and the occasional extra inning nightmare fest is quite tame for me. While you all were dying a thousand deaths during that one Red Sox game last year, I was more just mildly inconvenienced by the debacle. Also, by the time the Twins game is typically over, I can switch to watching Mike Trout and the Angels or Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers and still be finished with those games before bedtime. Despite these differences, I feel a connection among Twins fans at almost all times. The internet has allowed me to be in contact with other fans at all parts of my day to the point where the distance disparity isn’t even a problem. Yes, I can’t catch as many games in person or go to cool events like the Winter Meltdown, but I have survived so far and still am a part of this awesome fan base. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Who are you

Baseball has been changing ever since its creation. Not only have the rules changed, the strategy employed by teams has evolved as well. The sport has seen many different philosophies come and go over the years as players, managers, and executives continue to search for the next big thing. The modern game is squarely focused on strikeouts and homers and the Twins look to be among the teams at the forefront of this doctrine.The offseason success for the Twins rested on how they would mold the starting rotation into a group capable of carrying the squad. The offense would be good; that much was apparent even before the Josh Donaldson signing. But without a great starting rotation, the outcome of the season would likely be the same as 2019, and no one wanted that. Enter Kenta Maeda. After signing back Michael Pineda and Jake Odorizzi along with bringing in newcomers in Rich Hill and Homer Bailey, the Twins have reworked the starting rotation to their liking. Now it looks to be a dynamic group of hurlers who all provide quality outs in different ways. Almost every pitcher now has been acquired from outside the organization as José Berríos remains the sole homegrown starter. He also is the only starter who pitched for the Twins under the previous regime. This rotation is also incredibly modern; maybe more so than any other Twins rotation in recent memory. Since the front office headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over, one of the points of emphasis has been on acquiring pitchers who possess strikeout capability. Changing the entire philosophical landscape of a franchise isn’t an overnight job so this effort took time. Today it appears that the fulfilling of this undertaking has reached an upper echelon. One of the stats I like to look at for pitchers is swinging strike %. It shows how often a pitcher was able to coax a hitter into swinging and missing at one of his pitches. In short, it stands for how nasty a pitcher may be. The Twins starting rotation in 2019 had a swinging strike % that was higher than league average (11.6% to 10.7%) which is likely the first time that has ever been true. Unsatisfied with this, the Twins sought to improve their whiffing (in a good way) by letting Martín Pérez walk and pivoting toward starters who possess that swing-and-miss ability. Perhaps you remain skeptical. Getting hitters to whiff at any point in the count is nice but getting outs is still the point of the game for pitchers. That’s fair, so allow me to go to something that might be a bit more pleasing to you. Let’s look at K% which is the rate at which a pitcher struck out hitters over a specific time period (22 strikeouts over 100 plate appearances would yield a 22% K rate for example). The average MLB starter struck out 22.3% of batters in 2019. Here is each probable Twins starter and his K% in 2019: Berríos: 23.2% Odorizzi: 27.1% Pineda: 23.3% Maeda: 27.1% Hill: 29.8% Bailey: 21.4% That’s right, each likely major starting pitcher for the Twins in 2020 had an above average strikeout rate in 2019 with the exception of Homer Bailey. After suffering for years under the tyranny of “pitching to contact”, this is refreshing. Rick Anderson must be rolling in his grave after seeing these numbers*. *I’m getting word that he is actually in Detroit but that may as well be a death sentence so I’ll let this be. This new Twins starting rotation will be better suited for the modern game than probably any other Twins starting rotation in memory. They will be hunting for strikeouts and they all possess the ability to get those strikeouts when needed. Gone are the days of hoping that the batter hits a tapper to Nick Punto for an out. Now they’ll be trying to make the hitter look foolish enough to be placed on Sportscenter’s “Not Top 10”. And that should have you excited to watch this Twins starting rotation in action. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

It's mostly personal preference but my thought process was Bieber + Clevinger > anyone else (Clevinger was better on a rate basis last year than Giolito who is the only one that comes close by fWAR). Then Lindor + a better Ramírez is equal or better than every position player except for Moncada who had a massive BABIP last season. It's not an argument I would make but a good one could be made in my opinion.

We all love new things. They’re shiny, fun, and they give life some much needed change at times. But the thing about new things is that the excitement of “newness” drowns out the old and leads us to believe that the new is better when the old is still perfectly good.Where is this analogy going? Well, the storyline for the offseason was how many upgrades the up-and-coming White Sox made, and how they now appear to be serious threats in a rather weak AL Central. The signing of Josh Donaldson knocked those narratives down a peg but I do still feel as if there’s one team that is getting overlooked in all of this. That old thing would be the Indians. They just watched as their reign in the AL Central came to a close thanks to the Twins and their efforts (or lack thereof) recently led to a number of stalwart players leaving. Gone are the days of being terrorized by Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Behind us are the worries of thinking about facing Andrew Miller and Cody Allen late in the game. And thank the lord that the dastardly Michael Brantley is now making a mockery of AL West pitching for a change. The Indians will still boast a number of highly talented players who could come together and threaten the Twins’ efforts to win their second division title in a row. Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber have taken over the titles for “Cleveland pitcher who is annoyingly good” and Francisco Lindor and José Ramírez remain strong MVP candidates. One could make an argument that the Indians have the four best players in the division even when considering the recent Josh Donaldson signing. Beyond that, the Cleveland factory of pitching remained as strong as ever as two dudes named Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac put up ERAs of 2.34 and 3.81 respectively over fairly substantial sample sizes last season.Their peripherals tell a less optimistic story but a pitcher not completely falling on his metaphorical face to start his MLB career is noteworthy and they both possess the kind of stuff that can get them outs at the major league level. Throw in the strikeout machine James Karinchak, and the newly acquired Emmanuel Clase, and it looks like the Indians are in prime condition to consistently fool hitters all summer. Of course, there’s a reason why Cleveland is still mostly considered behind the Twins at this point. Their offseason major league signing has been literally just César Hernández, and their lineup depth beyond the two stars on the left side of the infield leaves much to be desired. The Twins should easily out-slug this team as they could legitimately have a 30 home run-hitter hitting ninth. While Cleveland will likely have Greg Allen, which is like comparing the original Star Wars trilogy to the prequels. Even with this lackluster offense, Cleveland has two other tricks up their sleeve that will prove to be crucial in the division race. Carlos Carrasco had a poor 2019, and it was eventually revealed that he had been diagnosed with leukemia. A full healthy season from the typically reliable starter would push the Cleveland starting rotation to a higher level. If this happens, it will also show just how far behind the Twins are when it comes to their starting rotation. The other trick is another bounce back candidate in José Ramírez who, much like Carrasco, had a worse showing in 2019 than many expected. Ramírez basically had two different seasons as his first half wRC+ of 68 would make even the lightest hitting of catchers blush. But he found his groove again in the second half as he scorched the ball to the tune of a 176 wRC+ and even came back from an injury that should have ended his season. If Ramírez is also back to being normal, then the Twins will really have some problems to deal with. Altogether, I still believe that the Twins have a better squad on paper, but there’s a reason why they play the games: anything can happen. As long as Cleveland has their high end talent and incredible pitching development, they will be an immediate threat to the Twins, and we should be prepared for that. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

As the offseason winds down, it has become clear that the Twins have their main group of players of whom they will consistently rely on in 2020. While some minor roles might be up for grabs, the main core of the team stands firm and sturdy especially with the addition of Josh Donaldson. But all good plans are doomed to have intrusions and nagging unforeseen issues, so how might the Twins react in such situations?Backups are inherently unexciting to fans like you and I for obvious reasons. Hell, even some coaches on professional sports teams have a dislike for backups. Nevertheless, “the next man up” is an important role as every year at least one starter will either go down with an injury, suffer regression, or become a monk and leave the sport as a whole which leaves an opening for someone else. I mean, just look at the Twins’ roster to start 2019 and the roster at the end (Adalberto Mejía and Blake Parker, anyone?) Beyond the handful of minor league signings such as Cody Asche and Daniel Coloumbe, the Twins are also blessed with a fruitful farm system that inludes a large number of talented prospects who could provide help if need be. Baseball America recently posted their 2020 preseason top 100 prospects list and there were six players on it representing the Twins (Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, Jordan Balazovic, and Jhoan Duran). None of these names should be especially surprising as we’ve been hearing about a number of these players and their potential for awhile at this point. But one of the most important things that all these players have in common is that they all finished the season at AA or above which means that they all stand a chance to play on the major league squad sometime this year. Prospect development is much more complicated than that but with the recent somewhat aggressive approach the Twins have taken to some of their prospects, it still stands to reason that they could continue to push some of these players and have them ready for the majors sooner rather than later. It seems like they’re already doing this with Brusdar Graterol as Wes Johnson made comments the other day regarding the plan for Graterol in 2020. Nick Nelson already wrote a great article that touched on basically everything surrounding the move but more than anything the move showed that the Twins are potentially looking more towards the immediate impact of a player rather than planning for something greater in scope. What does this mean for the Twins in 2020? Potentially if, say, Max Kepler goes down with an injury that takes a month for him to get back, the Twins might look towards replacing him with Alex Kirilloff over Jake Cave or (insert 28-year-old AAAA player here). Or if Homer Bailey slips on a banana peel and is out for a few weeks with a sore rear end, Jhoan Duran might be getting the call up to replace him instead of Blaine Hardy. If they opt to not use top prospects to replace players, the current Twins bench presents some great options already. Ehire Adrianza could fill in well at any infield spot thanks to his generally solid defense at every infield spot and above average bat (102 wRC+ in 2019). The previously mentioned Cave provides solid offensive upside if they need to call on an outfielder (career 111 wRC+) and will at least look athletic when running in the outfield. Finally, Marwin González could step in at most every position and at least be passable with both the glove and bat. Although, giving him an everyday role strips him of a lot of his value so it would be best to avoid this option. The third option is somewhere in the middle; a prospect who, while not of a high caliber, has proven that they should at least get a shot in the majors. This route graced the team last year with Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and Luis Arráez who all now look like regular contributors in the future and this could lead to someone like Zander Wiel showing off what he has to offer. No matter which direction they go, the team should have good options for replacing players and they might even find a future piece in the process. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Their "great advantage" is that they have a great farm system and can afford to take a hit to it if they so choose, it ain't that deep.

Fresh off the Josh Donaldson news, it is becoming harder to criticize the Twins front office as they pushed their chips in and took a free agent risk that the franchise has never seen before. For that, they should absolutely be commended. However, there does remain one area where they have been stingy but should look to change their ways.People say that there are many ways to build a baseball team but personally I think the only way to do so is with MLB players. Terrible dad jokes aside, the roster configuration of the Twins is now a nice mix of homegrown players (some of whom are now locked up long-term) and free agent signings who supplemented the talent that is lacking in some places. The final major avenue remaining for the Twins is to acquire players by trading away prospects for major league talent. Currently, 10 players on the Twins’ 40 man roster were acquired via trade: Jorge Alcala, Dakota Chalmers, Trevor May, Jhoan Duran, Zack Littell, Devin Smeltzer, Jake Odorizzi, Jake Cave, Gilberto Celestino and Luke Raley. Of those players, Jake Odorizzi is the only player who had any major league playing time at the time of the deal. Compare that to, let’s say, the Yankees who have seven players who had major league experience when they were acquired along with a number of players who they re-signed after trading for them and, well, the Twins number sure seems awfully low. Of course, it’s somewhat unfair to compare the Twins to the Yankees because the Yankees can more afford to take a hit if they lose a high level prospect or two. Yet at the same time, the Twins’ system of development is good enough right now that they could tap into their factory of player development and replace their lost prospect(s) with other homegrown ones that have already been acquired through drafting (not to self advertise but this was something Tom, Cooper, and I talked about on a podcast that can be found here). Farm systems can be used for more than just replenishing the major league team, and trading away prospects can be a necessity at times in order to avoid losing them to the Rule 5 draft. Specifically for the Twins, look at their current major league outfield along with the outfielders they have in the system and the math just doesn’t work out. There aren’t enough spots to go around. It’s awesome to have a plethora of prospects like Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Luke Raley, Brent Rooker, Akil Baddoo, Gilberto Celestino, and Gabriel Maciel among others, but all of them simply can’t be a part of the future of the Twins and getting something for them would be much better than losing them for nothing. This is another area where the Twins can look toward the Yankees as Brian Cashman is notorious for trading away prospects who are soon to be Rule 5 eligible but who are also blocked by current major league players (this was part of how the Twins received Zack Littell and Dietrich Enns). Dealing away players in this fashion can solve a potential 40-man dilemma and get the team a major league quality player. The other downside to holding onto prospects is that they’ll occasionally bust and leave you with nothing. Just recently the Twins have seen Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves go down this path, with Fernando Romero seemingly right behind them. Imagine a world where the Twins capitalized on their potential and dealt them for legitimate major league talent instead of watching them walk away for nothing? The Rays just did this when they dealt Matt Liberatore for José Martínez and others. Sure, Liberatore is a fantastic prospect, but he is far from the sure thing that Martínez is. The Rays know that they’re in a win-now mode so they took the risk and cashed in their chips accordingly. So, with a high quality major league team that still has room for improvement and a stacked farm system, the Twins should look to continue their risk-taking ways and improve for the now instead of the potential future. A quality farm system is nice and all but so is a good No. 2 or 3 starting pitcher who can help the team win as early as March. Let’s tap into the farm system and who knows? Maybe something good will happen. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

I was awakened from my sleep on New Year’s Eve by a text from other Twins Daily poster and the second funniest guy on the Leading Off Podcast, Cooper Carlson. He had informed me that the Twins had signed Rich Hill and Homer Bailey and he also gave me his thoughts on the topic (which I’m sure Twins Daily would prefer for me not to repeat).Homer Bailey is what he is, but Rich Hill is the pitcher here who interests me the most. My personal wish all offseason has been for the Twins to acquire a starting pitcher who is better than Jake Odorizzi and they did so here in the most frustrating way possible because the monkey’s paw takes no prisoners after all. Hill is a phenomenal pitcher when healthy but it’s that stipulation that has held him back for a few years now and this year he won’t be ready until at least June as he recovers from elbow surgery. This would be less of a problem if the Twins didn’t already have a starting pitcher named Michael Pineda who will also have a delayed start to his season as he must serve time thanks to his suspension from last season. This means that two of the following pitchers; Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, or Lewis Thorpe will likely have to fill in for a solid chunk of the season until the reinforcements arrive. Or at least, that’s how it currently stands. Maybe it’s the optimism that remains deep down inside of me that hasn’t quite been killed by the nihilism and sadness that comes with Minnesota sports, but I still believe that the Twins will trade for a starting pitcher before the offseason is over. Assuming this happens, the Twins now have six veteran starters to fill out five rotation spots. I have been told that it isn’t wise to make assumptions but I have been told a lot of things in my life which I’ve ignored so this won’t be the first suggestion to be thrown away by me. Assuming a starter is acquired, a June rotation may look like Berríos-Odorizzi-Traded for starter-Pineda-Bailey-Hill, which as I mentioned before, is one too many. I think it’s fair to assume that Pineda will come back with no issues but to assume that Hill will do so as a 40-year-old who already has had health issues, well that may not be wise. So what the Twins could do instead is limit his use to be more of a garnish on the plate of the starting rotation. How so? If you recall how the Red Sox used Nathan Eovaldi in the 2018 postseason, they were able to make up for the lack of their bullpen depth by using Eovaldi as a “rover” type of pitcher who had no defined role besides “we need outs and fast”. So, if say Jake Odorizzi has a blister problem like he did last year, the Twins could throw Hill in to start and make it easier on their bullpen as they wait for Odorizzi to return. Or say that the bullpen is already gassed from the day before and the starter only went five innings, Hill could then come in and bridge the gap to Taylor Rogers or Sergio Romo by eating up two or three innings in relief. Also, even though he only started two games, Eovaldi was able to pitch 22 1/3 innings over six games that postseason, so the Twins could still end up with a healthy innings total from Hill if they decide to use him like this. It’s difficult to do this over an extended period of time and the Red Sox got away with it because the postseason is much shorter than the full season, but Hill won’t be playing for the entire season so they might be able to succeed over the shorter period of time. By doing this, the Twins could limit the innings on Hill (who may I mention again, is a 40-year-old with health problems) while still finding ways to get him valuable innings that otherwise might have been used for option-fodder pitchers like Devin Smeltzer. Don’t forget that this year rosters expand to 26 men so the Twins could carve out this role for Hill while still remaining at full strength everywhere else on their roster. What do you think? What is the best way the Twins could use Rich Hill? Leave a comment and join the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

The day was Nov. 30, 2016 and it was the day that everything changed. By “everything” I of course mean the Twins’ catching situation which, naturally, is the only thing that matters. On that day, Jason Castro was inked to a three-year deal worth $24 million and it remains the biggest free agent contract handed out to a position player by the Twins in their history.Castro’s deal reached its end after this past season and with the signing of Alex Avila along with Mitch Garver becoming literally Mike Piazza, the odds of him returning are about the same as me dating Scarlett Johansson, so allow me to look back on Castro’s deal and see how both parties did. Castro presented an interesting example of the shift in thinking in the Twins as this was the first “major” deal handed out by the front office now headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine and it appeared that they were starting to apply their ideas to the current roster. This included signing a player who is easily overlooked by traditional stats but brings value through more advanced ways of looking at players. Some may have seen his career .232 batting average and scoffed at why the Twins would even bother while others would look at his OPS+ of 93 (above average for catchers) and excellent advanced defensive stats and see a great player hidden underneath the tyranny of RBIs. “Value” is tough to exactly define in baseball but $/WAR gives us a good general starting point to tackle the issue. 1 WAR comes out to about $8-9 million dollars on the free agent market but this relationship isn’t linear as teams rarely pay $8 million a year for a player worth 1 WAR and players worth 3 WAR don’t typically make $24 million a year on the market. Castro’s deal does however give us a good base as his contract of $24 million would mean that he needs to put up just ~3 WAR over the course of his contract for his performance to equal what the Twins paid for. Luckily for both Castro and the Twins, he was more or less worth exactly that. Baseball-reference’s version of WAR (rWAR) has him at 3.1 in his time with the Twins while Fangraphs (fWAR) has him at 3.7 and Baseball Prospectus (WARP) has him at 4.0. His bat was more or less what it was with the Astros as his OPS+ with the Twins was 91 compared to 93 with the Astros. The public defensive numbers we have available are also quite kind to Castro as Fangraphs as he has been the 14th best pitch framer in baseball since he signed with the Twins (min 1500 innings). This doesn’t sound too impressive but many of the names ahead of him are purely defensive specialists like Jeff Mathis who also couldn’t hit their way out of a cardboard box (Mathis has a career wRC+ of 46), so Castro was one of the few catchers who could hit at an average level and defend well. Beyond that, it seemed like Castro brought more to the table than just his ability on the field. Unfortunately, I am not in the clubhouse so I don’t know exactly how everything shook out in there but it seemed like many pitchers were outspoken in how he worked with the pitching staff in both calling games and pre-game preparation. The catcher position more than any other is one that demands more than just on-field performance and it appeared that Castro was useful there as well. Castro was never an eye-popping player but he was a solid role-player who brought good value to a team that needed a strong defensive catcher and he was worth almost exactly what his contract paid him. The Twins also made the playoffs in both of the seasons he was healthy, coincidence? Most definitely, but still something fun to think about when considering a player’s value. UPDATE: Jeff Passan of ESPN reports Castro is joining the Angels. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article