Matt Braun

There exists a problem in baseball. A problem that has perplexed front office executives and decisions makers for years. A problem that has caused an incalculable number of clashes between people. A problem that will exist until we are eventually replaced by cyborgs. The problem? Our eyes lie to us.It’s not our fault necessarily, we have no control over what we see. We are helpless to the fact that we can only observe what occurs on the field and make judgements from that information. Algorithms do not conveniently exist inside our head. We also always adhere to the fact that we have been indoctrinated to the things that matter the most in baseball-runs. And when these runs occur (or do not occur), then we have no choice but to react accordingly by using RBIs and ERA. Unfortunately, our eyes lie. The faultiness of our eyes is the same reason why Billy Beane famously clashed with his scouts and ran an entire draft class based on stats alone. Beane was tired of scouts presenting bias with information that had to be entirely free of the human emotion. The only solution? Numbers. They don’t lie. Numbers don’t have eyes and are not subjected to the same limits of our human emotions. So Beane did what he had to do and built an entire system of baseball on numbers. Numbers that were actually crucial to winning baseball games. Where am I going with this? I want you to answer this simple question; who is having a better season? Taylor Rogers or Tyler Duffey? Go on, I can wait. The vast majority of you likely chose Duffey and you probably did so without thinking too hard about it. It is a solid choice after all. Duffey has just a 1.88 ERA as of the 1st of September and has looked dominant since re-joining the team last season (playoffs not included). The streak of greatness is believable as well as Duffey has shed any semblance of his previous self and has embraced change to become the pitcher, destroyer of hitters. Rogers, on the other hand, has been quite mortal this year. He has an ERA of 4.38 on the year as he has not quite looked to be his old self. Matthew Trueblood just wrote an article the other day on this topic. Go read it. However, this is a murkier question than you may think. Let’s go to a future where the tyranny of ERA is no more. What do other important stats say? Here’s a comparison of “Player A” and “Player B”: Player A: .282 xwOBA, 2.01 FIP, 3.08 xERA Player B: .288 xwOBA, 3.64 FIP, 3.22 xERA Think about it for a few seconds. Now who do you want? Is it a tough decision? I’ll spare you the suffering. Player A is Taylor Rogers and Player B is Tyler Duffey. Surprised? The advanced stats actually favor Rogers so far. Granted, it isn't by much, but the fact that they’re even this close might come as a shock to many. Duffey has just seemed so dominant to begin the season. Narratives are powerful things. What’s happening is Rogers is getting bit by the bad luck bug. His BABIP is .436 (career .309) and his LOB% is 51.1% (career 77.6%). Glancing at his Fangraphs page and ignoring ERA would lead to you to believe that Rogers is having a perfectly normal season by his standards. This doesn’t mean that everything is all sunshine and roses for Rogers. Trueblood noted that Rogers has real mechanical differences this year that have led to his struggles. He has some small changes to make. But these struggles may still be overblown. Some of his important numbers are stable and, well, it has just been one single month. Knowing all of this, it’s important to realize that your eyes can lie to you. What you see is not necessarily what is really occurring. Baseball is an especially tricky sport that likes to tell small fibs in the form of previously agreed upon stats. Stats that before made up the foundation of how we understood the game. But we have new stats now. And these stats can prove that when you’re watching the game, you’re not actually looking. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Well, believe it or not, we're almost halfway through this strange season. The Twins have performed at about the same level as most people expected but how about the rest of the AL Central? It's very difficult to keep track of a number of teams at once, so allow me to walk you through what else is going on in the AL CentralShane Bieber is Now a Certified Problem The young right-hander has made his way to the very top of the pitching mountain despite being merely a prospect just two short years ago. His 2019 campaign was solid but his 2020 season so far has been nothing short of eye-popping dominance. How terrifying. Bieber has been off and running to begin the season as he has punched out 42.9% of hitters he has faced so far. That is insane. Throw in the fact that his walk rate hasn’t budged away from his career average and his FIP is a hilarious 2.11 to begin the season. You know how many qualified starters had a lower FIP in 2019? None, not a soul. Not even the best efforts of guys like Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, or Gerrit Cole could reach such a level. His improvements are tangible as well. His fastball velocity is up a tick from 93.1 to 94.1. He’s added a new cutter to go along with his slider and curve and hitters just can't figure him out (19.8% swinging strike rate!!). It’s safe to wonder if he can continue to be this dominant but it certainly seems like he has taken another step forward. Oh, and he’s only a free agent after 2025. Strap in, Twins fans. The Royals Bullpen is… Good? Look, I’m just as surprised as you are on this one. The Royals were shaping up to be anything but the word “good” in 2020 but have gotten an unexpected boost from their relievers early in the season. The Royals had two interesting names last year in Scott Barlow and Ian Kennedy who had FIPs of 3.41 and 2.99 respectively in 2019. A house built with two bricks is hardly a foundation, however. Just two guys can’t carry a bullpen no matter how hard they try. Now they have Josh Staumont, a reliever throwing 98 and striking out 44.2% of hitters. Also in the fold is the ghost of Greg Holland past and a revamped Trevor Rosenthal. An odd, yet effective mixture of Guys to Remember. So far, the Royals have rode these Guys to the 10th best bullpen ERA in baseball. The Twins will only have to deal with the squad for one more weekend but will likely have to at least endure the tyranny of Barlow and Staumont for years to come. If the Royals can also prove that these advancements are a result of a revamped development system then the Twins will have to worry about another team in their division potentially taking the next step forward. But that’s a future problem to worry about. We hope. These Tigers Can Hit, Apparently This one can also be filed under “stuff that makes no sense” or most likely just “small sample shenanigans” (we have a lot of filing cabinets). Anyways, the Tigers offense is off to a great start according to a number of Statcast measures. For hard hit%, the Tigers are 1st in all of baseball at 44.1%. For average exit velocity, they are 7th at 89.2%. For Barrels per batted ball event, they are 11th at 8.0%. All of these metrics are better than the Twins, for the record. It’s fair to lean towards being suspicious of these numbers because, well, name a Tigers hitter not named Miguel Cabrera or Jonathan Schoop, but this entire season is going to be weird anyways. A great Tigers offense would show the difference between a team performing well and a team actually being good. But maybe they can get away with it for the rest of the season. There’s only about a month's worth of regular season games left anyways and much stranger stuff has happened before. Those White Sox Are Up To Something The White Sox were pegged as “the breakout team” in 2020 by just about every single writer to exist. It was hard to fully disagree with that prediction. They just backed up the dump truck of money for guys like Dallas Keuchel and Yasmani Grandal and had a number of big prospects like Luis Robert who were on the verge of making the majors. So far, the results have been solid. The White Sox find themselves at 15-11 and in a great position to take advantage of the expanded postseason. As a team, they’re hitting to the tune of a 110 wRC+ (7th best in baseball) and they’re pitching to the tune of a 4.16 ERA (13th best in baseball). It seems logical that such rankings combine for a record above .500. What’s the secret? The aforementioned Keuchel along with Lucas Giolito have been a dynamically effective 1-2 punch and the übermensch uber-prospect, Luis Robert, has been as good as advertised. The White Sox will likely be able to make the playoffs and I personally look forward to hating on them for the immediate future. Click here to view the article

In just a little over two weeks, the annual ritual of player movement will occur in the form of the trade deadline. You already know what goes on here. Good teams add, bad teams subtract, and fans on both sides complain about who they got and what they gave up. It’s a fun time had by all. This trade deadline will be starkly unique and in many ways, a complete and utter mess.The first issue is that teams mostly will not know just how good they are. Surely, the Yankees and the Dodgers know that they’ll be menaces, but what about teams like the Rangers and Angels? The fringey teams that most need the 100 some odd games of observation and analysis will have to compact their decision making process into a relatively minuscule sample. Keep in mind that these are teams headed by executives who sometimes plan moves years in advance. Weird stuff is going to occur when the safety net of long-term evaluation is removed. Another one of the problems that occurs when barely any games have been played is that teams just don’t know how good some of their players actually are. The Twins need to know where some of their riskier players are at so they can decide whether to add or be satisfied. For example, a guy like Tyler Clippard might lose it halfway through September. In a normal season, the Twins would use this information to go get a replacement because the breakdown would have normally happened sometime in May. Now, all they can do is swear under their breath and mutter while kicking dust. Yet, there remains more that screws up this trade deadline! MLB announced on their opening day that playoffs would be expanding to include eight teams from each league. This decision can be its own discussion, but the important end result is that the market will now be entirely skewed to favor sellers. I’m also not actually sure if there will be any true sellers in MLB. Consider this; the typical trade deadline consists of teams who can clearly identify where they are at in comparison with every other team. This is the point of every single game played before July 31. But with a shortened season and an expanded postseason, just about every team in baseball could conceivably make the playoffs. If the Tigers are sitting in second place on August 31, why in the world would they drop guys like Matt Boyd and Jonathan Schoop? They’ll take their shot at the playoffs because they know that anything can happen. The playoff picture will obviously become much clearer in the coming weeks. Or, at least it hopefully will, because the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently the only team that is essentially already out of the race (can’t wait to eat these words in a few weeks when they suddenly become the ‘27 Yankees). Anyways, that means that either ten teams are going to fight for Joe Musgrove and marginally improve their rotation or they’ll take their chances with what they have. The point is that cutting out the middle teams altogether from being sellers almost completely saps the market of worthwhile players. Bad teams generally don’t have good players, that’s why they’re bad after all (I do actually get paid for this kind of analysis, by the way). The few good players they do have will have such an astronomical price attached to them that the naturally conservative front offices members of other teams won’t meet that price. A few might out of desperation, but desperate front office members are few and far between. Of course, fringe teams who can make the playoffs might still sell. It would be one hell of a thing to say “we’re giving up this chance to make the playoffs so that we have a chance to make the playoffs in the future”, but MLB teams have hid behind “the future” for years now anyways. Ultimately, I don’t see that happening and instead we will have the slowest trade deadline to ever exist. I hope I’m wrong! I really do. This just happens to be the most apparent end game of everything that has made this season so strange. At least in regards to the trade deadline. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

After a close loss on Friday, the Twins will be looking to rebound against Kansas City and get back on track before a real losing streak gets established. Fortunately, they’ll be getting a shot in the arm in the form of a 2019 All-Star making his 2020 debut.Last Night's Game Recap KCR 3, MIN 2: No Cruz, No Donaldson, No Arráez, No Offense Today: Minnesota @ Kansas City, 6:05 P.M. CT Twins Starter: Jake Odorizzi The big Twins news for Saturday is that Jake Odorizzi is scheduled to return to the mound and make his 2020 debut. The Big Stink was set to be a strong number two in the rotation for the Twins but was forced to miss the start of the season due to back problems. He threw a few bullpen sessions over the last week or so and the team now is evidently satisfied enough with his health to give him the green light. Odorizzi made his first All-Star game in 2019 on the back of arguably his best season to date. An underwhelming 2018 led Odorizzi to seek pitching guidance from an expert in Florida named Randy Sullivan (the details can be found in this blog post). The lasting effect was a renewed career for Odorizzi. He posted the highest K% of his career (27.1%), the lowest FIP of his career (3.36), and the highest fWAR (4.3) of his career as well. This allowed for Odorizzi to accept the QO from the Twins over the off-season and set himself up for a great 2020. His first start in 2020 will come against his old team, Kansas City. You may soon forget that Odorizzi was a Royal for a short time in 2012 as he only threw 7 ⅓ innings for them. He was swiftly dealt to the Rays along with Wil Myers in return for Wade Davis and James Shields, which is a fine group of Guys To Remember right there (I know Davis’ career isn’t over yet, but yikes). Given that this will be Odorizzi's first start of the season, he will have a limited pitch count. He threw 50 pitches the last time he faced hitters and is shooting for 70-75 pitches in today's game. Royals Starter: Danny Duffy The Royals will start one of their longest tenured players in Danny Duffy. The 31-year-old lefty has been with the team since 2011 and has accrued 14.4 career fWAR over 1,070 ⅓ career innings pitched in the majors. Duffy has seen his velocity dip over the years as he no longer is the type of guy to comfortably sit in the 93 MPH range. Still, he has been able to manipulate his pitch usage in order to stay an effective starting pitcher in the major leagues. “Effective” might actually be the perfect word to describe Duffy. You don’t pitch over 1000 major league innings without some ability after all and Duffy has thrown at least 130 innings in six straight seasons. Duffy put up an above average ERA in 2019 (4.34) and could likely be considered the Royals’ ace of the staff. Despite crushing lefties last season to the tune of a 126 wRC+ in 2019, the Twins have struggled with just a 72 wRC+ against them in 2020. That’s a drop from the 2nd best in baseball to the 5th worst. Duffy will be far from a pushover and should give the Twins a challenge. Lineups: Other Notes: Mike Trout hit a home run. Normally this is anything but news, but this one happened to fall on his 29th birthday; giving him his 5th career birthday home run. Josh Donaldson was placed on the 10 day IL retroactive to 8/4. Donaldson has been dealing with a right calf strain. Logan Morrison hit his first home run of the season. I really have no good reason to post this but enjoy it anyways. Around the AL Central DET 17, PIT 13 CHW 2, CLE 0 1. MIN 10-4 (+28 run differential) 2. CHW 8-6 (+4) 3. DET 6-5 (-7) 4. CLE 8-7 (+15) 5. KCR 5-10 (-10) Tomorrow's Game: Minnesota @ Kansas City, 1:05 PM CT TBA vs Brady Singer See Also Josh Donaldson's Cursed (and Blessed) Calves What’s Happening at the Alternate Site? Does Lewis Thorpe Have a Velocity Problem? Trade Retrospective: How Did the Twins Do in the Ryan Pressly Trade? Click here to view the article

The Twins are blessed with depth at a number of their positions. Of course, you can point to players like Ehire Adrianza, Jake Cave, and Marwin González who provide an incredible amount of value to the team. Having starter-quality players ready at a moments notice is crucial in the modern game. This is their other great depth piece, Alex Avila, comes into play.The reaction among most Twins fans when the Avila signing was announced was more of a reserved acceptance of the fact rather than an outright celebration. In fairness, most normal human beings don’t celebrate signing backup catchers. Plus, Avila had just spent the last decade being a decidedly average player by traditional stats (with the exception of his monstrous 2011 season). It was also obvious from the beginning that Avila would play the Robin role to Mitch Garver’s batman as Garver had just figured out how to hit baseballs like Mike Trout. For my money, the combo of Avila’s uninteresting surface stats and the naturally humdrum nature of the catcher position are to blame for this reaction. This is the same mixture that doomed Jason Castro to be the butt of many jokes despite how valuable he actually was to the team. Don’t try and say you actually liked Castro, I’ve seen all your tweets about him. But why does Avila have the aesthetic of a boring ballplayer? Well, the backup catcher position naturally is not one that inspires awe in the average fan. They tend to be glove-first players who bring their value in ways that tend to be either difficult to track or nerdy to do so. You don’t often see YouTube compilations of great framing. Beyond that, they also typically find themselves replacing a player with a better bat (Garver). It’s much easier for you, the fan, to appreciate it when Garver launches a titanic homer than when Avila swipes a strike with some tricky framing. But just because a player may be boring does not mean that they lack value. Avila had the 13th most valuable glove out of every catcher with at least 200 PA last season. That may not sound too impressive, but 48 catchers in total hit that plateau last year which places Avila in the upper echelon. Beyond that, just five catchers ahead of him on the list hit for a better wRC+ than Avila in 2019; meaning that Avila wasn’t a standard Drew Butera-type who couldn’t hit his way out of a boot. Avila was also a Statcast darling in 2019. His hard hit % of 49.0 puts him in between such names as Matt Chapman and Yordan Álvarez. His average exit velocity of 91.4 was better than both Manny Machado and J.D. Martinez. To top it off, his Brls/BBE% (barrels per batted ball event) was seventh in all of baseball (min 50 BBE). Yes, I’m aware that every baseball fan over the age of 40 just rolled their eyes at that doozy of a stat. Just understand that Avila often hits the ball hard. With the struggles of Garver and the short season emphasizing the importance of playing the hot bat, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins moved towards giving Avila more playing. Such a choice should not make Twins fans worry. Avila is capable of providing great defense behind the plate along with some offense that may be better than expected. He is much more than just the prototypical “all glove no bat” backup that most teams employ at catcher. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Miguel Sanó entered tonight’s game 1-for-17 with eight strikeouts and no walks. He hit a home run in each of his first two trips to the plate in support of a great start by Kenta Maeda, as the Twins beat Cleveland 3-0.Box Score Maeda: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Sanó 2 (2), Rosario (2) Top 3 WPA: Maeda .344, Sanó .172, Rosadio .088 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: Winchart.png King Kenta Kenta Maeda continues to make Twins fans forget who they gave up to receive him (Brusdar who?). His six innings of work took just 83 pitches in total. Maeda’s off-speed offerings stole the show as he was able to get 14/59 total swinging strikes combined between his changeup and slider. The slider was an especially deadly weapon as when hitters actually did put it in play, they averaged just 78.5 MPH off the bat against it. Maeda likely could have gone deeper into the game but manager Rocco Baldelli opted to give the bullpen more work. The first two innings were a bit shaky for Maeda as he struggled with command and had to rely purely on batted balls for his outs. The third inning proved to be pivotal for Maeda’s start as he punched out the side and showed better command until the end of his outing. Miguel Sanó Finds His Groove Sanó was one of the handful of Twins hitters who have struggled to find their timing to begin the season. The already strikeout-prone slugger was whiffing at an astounding 47.1% clip coming into the night and had a batting average that would make any pitcher embarrassed. Parker Hageman broke down some of the mechanical issues he had in his swing a few days ago. Something was evidently different on Saturday as Sanó launched two absolute rockets out of left field against Carlos Carrasco. The Twins offense so far this year has been strangely inconsistent. They had two monster games against the White Sox with a handful of passable performances since against St. Louis and Cleveland. A more consistent Sanó would help alleviate these problems going forward. Eddie Rosario didn’t want to let just one person have all the fun as he launched his own bomba in the 4th inning. The Bullpen Remains Strong The bullpen continued to be incredibly reliable to begin the season as Trevor May, Cody Stashak, and Taylor Rogers combined for three scoreless innings to finish off the game. Both May and Stashak saw some minor traffic in their innings of work but no runs came of it. Rogers has yet to allow a baserunner through his first three outings. Stashak being utilized in the 8th inning may point towards the Twins believing in him more as a late inning guy capable of getting clutch outs late. He could join the long list of reliable Twins relievers whom Baldelli may call on at any time he needs. Although, Stashak did walk his second ever batter, so the wheels might be coming off for him. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Postgame Pint Immediately following the 3-0 win over Cleveland, Nick Nelson, Matthew Trueblood and Renabanena discussed Kenta Maeda's stellar outing and Miguel Sano's two-HR night. Watch below, or download the audio-only podcast. Click here to view the article

We kick off the back-half of the draft with rounds nine through 12. By this point, each drafter is digging fairly deep into their minor league knowledge for their picks. Drafting at this point is not unlike searching for supplies during an apocalypse as you're really hoping that no one is looking where you're looking. Each snipe is even more brutal as there are generally very few players who can now replace the guy you were looking at. Let us know who you think is shaping up to have the best roster after 12 full rounds.If you missed the first round rounds, you can view them here. A brief primer: We're taking 16 players with "prospect" or "rookie" status. Positions on each team included: Catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, three outfielders, a bench player/hitter, three starting pitchers, three relief pitchers, and an extra pitcher. (Please note that comments under the picks were made by the person making the selection.) Round 9 Seth Stohs - DaShawn Keirsey, OF 2019 was a tough season for Keirsey. He struggled and he just wasn’t able to stay on the diamond for an extended period of time. But, he is as athletic as anyone in the organization, and he can play a very good defensive centerfield. Steve Lein - Moises Gomez, RP Happy to land the guy I voted for as Twins Daily's 2019 Relief Pitcher of the year. He led Twins minor leaguers in K/9 rate at 13.3 and held hitters to an average under .150. He finished his season by being sent to the Arizona Fall League. Ted Schwerzler - Chris Williams, C The bat wasn’t what it was in 2018 with Elizabethton, but Chris Williams put on a show during his pro debut year. He swatted 15 dingers right out of the gate, and even in a down 2019, reached double digits. Lots to like here, and while he may not be the ideal defender behind the plate, I’m banking on the offense. Cody Christie - Jacob Pearson, OF I’ve been a big fan of Pearson since the Twins acquired him from the Angels. The organization has been aggressive with him and he put up some of his best offensive numbers after getting to the FSL last season. If the Twins continue to be aggressive with him, I think there will be positive results. Jeremy Nygaard - Yennier Cano, RP The Twins signing MLB.com’s #2 international free agent didn’t make big news as it came at the close of the 2019 IFA period and amidst the Twins division pennant run. Cano struggled with control during his American debut, but has the chance to move very quickly (and be a steal at this point in the draft.) I should also note Thievin’ Ted took the other two guys I targeted for this pick. Matt Braun - Yeltsin Encarnacion, SS I needed a shortstop like a plant needs water. Encarnacion fills the role with a passable bat for the position and the opportunity to move as Royce Lewis moves through the minor league system. Plus, his name is “Yeltsin”, what isn’t to love? Round 10 Matt Braun - Gabe Snyder, 1B Snyder provides the standard 1st base pop that was needed in my lineup. He isn’t as flashy of an option as someone like Zander Wiel but a 131 wRC+ at Cedar Rapids is great no matter how you slice it. Jeremy Nygaard - Anthony Prato, 2B Had to reverse course after plans to add power in Julien or Wiliams was foiled. Prato, who lacks power, makes up for it with speed and on-base skills. Between the top three of Celestino-Prato-Wade, there will be plenty of guys on base (who can also pose a threat to steal) for Wiel. Now just need to find more power bats... Cody Christie - Charles Mack, 2B The Twins took Mack out of high school back in 2018 and he played all last season with the E-Twins. He’s been young for both levels he has played at so far and he has been able to hold his own. Defensively, he has split time between third and second base. I’ll pencil him at second since I already have Steer at third. Ted Schwerzler - Max Smith, OF Smith was a late round pick in 2019, and while he was old for the Appy League, he showed up nicely. Power isn’t something I’d expect from him, but he did put seven balls over the fence. Add in that he can play all three outfield positions and this is where I’ll build that group from. Steve Lein - Caleb Hamilton, C Lot of reliever arms still left I like here, but pitchers need someone to throw to, right? Hamilton has played all over the diamond, but I'll keep him at catcher to utilize his leadership. Hamilton also gets on base and flashes power. Seth Stohs - Jovani Moran, LHRP He struggled a bit in 2019, primarily with control, but Moran has a track record of dominance. In 34 innings in 2019, he struck out 50 batters. Then he struck out 14 batters in nine innings in the AFL. From a roster construction standpoint, it will be good to have a lefty in the bullpen too. Round 11 Seth Stohs - Wander Valdez, 3B In the GCL last summer, Valdez hit .323 with six doubles and four home runs. This spring training in Ft. Myers, Valdez was one of the most impressive young prospects that I saw. He’s big, strong and athletic and looks to have a ton of power potential. Steve Lein - Tom Hackimer, RP The sidewinding righty has been phenomenal in the Twins system thus far with a 2.77 ERA and K/9 rate north of 10 as a pro. Surgery held him back for most of the 2018 season, slowing his rise, but rebounded in 2019 and could be an option for the Twins bullpen in the near future. Ted Schwerzler - Ernie De La Trinidad OF Acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade with the Diamondbacks, De La Trinidad brings it across the board. None of the tools are flashy, but all have a chance to be average or better. Another strong outfield type, he’ll fit nicely out there on my team. Cody Christie - Victor Heredia, 1B Heredia showed some power during his time in the DSL but that power didn’t follow him last year as he made his debut with the GCL Twins. With another year of experience under his belt, I think the power will return and he completes the right side of my infield. Jeremy Nygaard - Zach Neff, LHRP Neff was a late-round pick in 2018, but has impressed enough to get a post-2019 invite to the AFL. He’s not great against right-handed batters, but dominates lefties and has posted over 9.00 K/9s both seasons as a pro. Matt Braun - Hector Lujan, RHRP Lujan had an odd year in 2019 as he struck out less hitters than usual at Fort Myers but then walked more hitters than usual at Pensacola. He’s been remarkably consistent so far in his career and his miniscule homerun rate made him an attractive candidate for my first reliever spot. Round 12 Matt Braun - Ryan Shreve, RHRP Everyone has “their guy” in the system and Shreve is certainly mine. He struck out 29.9% of batters in rookie ball for his first taste of professional baseball and that will work at any level. Once his BABIP is under control, he should move quickly through the system. Jeremy Nygaard - Drew Maggi, 3B Adding a 31-year-old to provide veteran leadership to an infield that includes two guys making their full-season debut. Good for getting on base, I also expect Maggi to bring double digits home runs and stolen bases to the lineup. Cody Christie - Anthony Escobar, RHRP I need to fill up a bullpen with the rest of my picks and Escobar is a good starting point. The 19-year old made his GCL debut last season and was asked to finish games for the first time in his career. His strikeout numbers aren’t there yet, but he doesn’t walk a ton and he has the potential to add to his small frame. Ted Schwerzler - Jimmy Kerrigan, OF Kerrigan was undrafted and has spent time in Indy Ball, but he’s also flashed at different stops in the Twins system. There’s both power and speed potential here, and rounding out my outfield this is a safe pick. Steve Lein - Jordan Gore, SS Ted sniped me above with Kerrigan, but I've also been planning to start shuffling some prior picks around the diamond to accomodate what is left. I like Gore's defense at SS a bit more than Gordon's, so I'll shift Nick to 2B. There's not been much bat here yet, but is a switch hitter with some speed and arguably the best hair in the organization. Side Note - Gore has been moved to the mound and is 100% a pitcher in 2020, so Steve has a true dual threat on his hands! Seth Stohs - Michael Helman, 2B Helman had a fantastic college career, and the Twins made him their 11th round pick in 2018. After signing, he quickly moved up to Cedar Rapids. He was pushed very aggressively to Ft. Myers to start 2019 and really struggled with the bat until a season-ended wrist injury. But he could hit, and he is a terrific middle-infield glove. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I also wanted to add that I'm proud of the fact that the Twins are not going to cut any of their minor leaguers at this time. Giving their players stability is exactly what teams should be doing and it brings my joy to know that the Twins care.

Gotta say, I'm liking that Matt kid and his selections.

MLB has had quite the struggle recently regarding its own short-term future. The players and owners remain in a stalemate for the time being and each new day brings seemingly worse news for the potential of a season actually starting. During all of this fuss, the minor leagues have been thoroughly picked clean on a daily basis.Over the last few days, major league teams have announced their decisions regarding the future of their minor league players. 28 of the 30 teams have publicly committed to paying their minor league players at least through the end of June. Many of these commitments however were also met with a grand exodus of roster cuts. News of the roster cuts naturally came after the teams gained some goodwill from their announcements as they saw opportunities to bury the more unpleasant flip-side of their promise. It would be foolish to categorize all of these roster cuts as purely evil. In any normal year, minor leaguers are released after spring training and before the draft consistently as teams decide who is worth keeping around beyond the short term. Yet, the timing of the cuts in conjunction with the uncertainty surrounding the general economic apprehension at the moment does turn these roster moves into something beyond a standard activity. Many of these players have been hyper-focused on baseball alone over the majority of their lives and now will have to pivot toward finding a new income source for the near future. For many, this will signal the end of their careers as a whole. At $400 a week, it costs just $6,000 total to keep a minor leaguer on payroll until the end of the minor league system. Multiply that by the number of players being dropped and you'll find that every team is saving about half the cost of the major league minimum salary. Evidently, that is too much for some teams. This gutting of the minors isn’t coming completely out of the blue. MLB was already set on cutting 40 minor league teams before the season and the loss of revenue from games put MiLB in a position of even less power. MLB under Rob Manfred has been dead-set on eliminating anything fun that holds inherent benefits that can’t be tracked by a dollar sign. They do not care for the impact that these teams have on small communities, or the alienation of fans who use these games as a cheap alternative to MLB, or for the hundreds (maybe thousands) of players and coaches who are supported by these teams. Granted, not every single minor league player will become a future major league player or provide the needed depth for an organization. But is the potential for a player figuring it out not worth the incredibly low cost of keeping them around? Randy Dobnak was found from the depths of independent baseball, eventually started a playoff game, and now looks to be in contention for a starting rotation spot. Max Muncy was given a second chance by the Dodgers and is now one of the better hitters in baseball. Mike Piazza was taken in the 62nd round of the draft as a favor and eventually became one of the best catchers of all-time. What if none of those players got their shot because the team deemed them to not be worth it? This gutting of the minor leagues destroys the great infracture of MLB. They’ll claim that these moves make the system more efficient because pure productivity is all they care about. To them, these aren’t teams, or players, or coaches who all have identities; they are just numbers. Numbers that can be eliminated or tossed away with the snap of a finger. It’s an unfortunate tragedy that will likely get lost in the greater discussion currently surrounding baseball but will be just as important to baseball’s professional future in North America. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Well, I had to make a decent case for him somehow! You're right in believing that using his GG awards is a weak structure because even I agree with that personally.

This is about where I am with Hunter as well. Granderson might actually be the perfect comp for him as well.

I forgot to mention it in the article because I'm a big dumb dumb, but the reason that I chose this topic was because I found out that both players are top 300 all-time in rWAR and fWAR for position players. That intrigued me enough to do some more research and now we're here.

Few things get baseball fans more riled up then talking about the Hall of Fame and who deserves to make it in. To continue that, we’ll be looking at the cases for two Twins who look to be, as of today, on the fringe of making it.Torii Hunter: Hunter’s case is decent. He won nine Gold Glove awards, two Silver Sluggers, and was a five time All-Star over his career. The good news for Hunter is that there are only six outfielders who have more career GG’s (Clemente, Mays, Griffey Jr., Jones, Kaline, Suzuki). Four of those players are already in the Hall while Suzuki will certainly make it once he’s eligible. Much of Torii’s case rests on the strength of those GG awards and how much voters weigh that when deciding who to vote for. The bad news for Hunter is that those four outfielders already in the hall were much better hitters over the course of their careers than Hunter. Hunter aligns almost perfectly offensively with Andruw Jones, the other outfielder with more GGs than Hunter who snagged just 19.4% of the vote in his third year on the ballot. Hunter’s career OPS+ sits at 110 while Jones is at 111. Beyond the fact that Hunter wasn’t quite an elite hitter, he never was unquestionably one of the best players in baseball at any point in his career. The highest he ever placed in MVP voting was when he came in sixth in 2002, and even then he was only the 25th best position player in the AL by fWAR. Both Corey Koskie and Jacque Jones were more valuable by that stat. Hunter never finished higher than 15th beyond that year. Hunter will have an advantage as he will be eligible for the ballot next year and there aren’t many players joining him who have slam-dunk cases. Curt Schilling could make it but no one else seems like an obvious case unless the voters suddenly get real cool about steroids real quickly. Hunter could garner some back-ballot votes as he only has to fight Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson as other strong newcomers. Josh Donaldson: As is, Donaldson faces a similar uphill battle but he has reached his own point in a starkly different way than Hunter. While Hunter started playing consistently at the age of 24, Donaldson didn’t see his first full season until 2013 during his age-27 season. That has yet to be a negative for the Bringer of Rain. Every season that Donaldson has seen at least 400 at-bats has resulted in him getting MVP votes including his 2015 season that won him the award outright. Since 2013, the only position player with more fWAR would be the one and only, Mike Trout. Let’s put it this way; Donaldson certainly has the peak play needed to gain entry into the Hall. After another great 2019 season with the Braves, his peak might not even be behind him quite yet. The major difference between Hunter and Donaldson is that Donaldson can still alter his career and improve his case for the Hall. A strong four years in Minnesota would likely cement Donaldson’s case for the Hall, especially if he leads the team to a title. Anything less is where his case starts to get a bit murky as he may fall into the Dale Murphy pit of “great peak but not enough longevity”. These next few seasons will be crucial for Donaldson’s case and he’s certainly not being helped by these lost games. Both players present different yet similar cases for the Hall. One has to leave it all up to the voters while the other can still influence his career and build onto an already impressive resume. What do you think? Do either of these players belong in the Hall of Fame? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

No evidence? Does he not get any credit for being a high-ranking member of a front office that put together an historic starting rotation? Do you believe that the Twins' recent massive pitching improvements occurred naturally without Falvey's influence? If you don't think Falvey deserves any credit, there's a great book called The MVP Machine that might change your mind.