mitcho8

Nice thorough work. I've been a little (ok, a lot) obsessed with the Marlins as a trade partner. I was assuming the return would lean more toward ML-ready hitters, maybe 2 hitters and a pitcher, if necessary, given their problems scoring runs.

So this one is inspired by the latest GATG episode. It's a bit over budget, but I think it's sellable to ownership as the time to splurge. If cuts are absolutely needed, there are some opportunities. I could swap out a different C (Barnhardt?), IF (Adrianza?) and OF (Celestino?) and reduce payroll by $3-5mil at each spot. Also, if the team rolled into spring training and all the SP looked healthy and effective, Mahle or Maeda could be traded to clear a spot and salary. Finally, I'm trading away Kepler and trading/non-tendering Urshela and Pagan. Urshela is tough for me. I think he should be worth $9mil to someone, but it's not this team, and probably no team, unfortunately. Note: I based FA salary and Arb $ off Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors projections, and for the lesser FA I just kind of guessed. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($5.0M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.7M) SS: Carlos Correa ($32M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Wil Myers ($6.0M) DH: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.8M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Adelmys Diaz ($6.0M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($7.0M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($7.2M) SP3: Carlos Rodon ($28.0M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.7M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($0.8M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.4M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.7M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.7M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($5.0M) Payroll is 4.18% over budget

Thanks! I preferred Bogaerts over Correa due to cost. I expect he might switch to 3b before the deal is up but I think his bat will still play there. All things being equal, I'd go for Woodruff over Lopez due to the durability concerns. I could see trading for a C, but a) I'm not looking forward to further thinning the farm system, and b) I'm not sure Toronto is going to take Falvey's calls after the Berrios trade. I may have messed up the formatting on this but its late and I'm not typing it up again.

I'm not sure Miami would be looking forward to adding another underperforming corner outfielder to Soler and Garcia. I could see maybe something built around Arraez or Miranda for Lopez. Both Rodon and Lopez are coming off career highs in IP and have extensive injury histories so I'm not eager to put all my eggs in those baskets. Winder might match what a vet RP could provide, but he might not, too.

Not much to say. I don't want to sign a big free agent SP. I'm going after a big name SS. I'm not sure what it would take to get Haniger, but $10mil seemed close. I'm not especially in love with Narvaez, but I just want a credible 2nd catcher in that price range. Same with Fulmer; just give me a veteran RHRP. I think there's some room to trade for Pablo Lopez or Brandon Woodruff if the opportunity arises. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Xander Bogaerts ($25.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Mitch Haniger ($10.00M) DH: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($1.10M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) RP: Michael Fulmer ($5.00M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.70M) Payroll is 10.86% under budget

I like those Reds SPs, but I'm not sure what they would want in return. Their C, IF and COF seem pretty set to me, but maybe a trade could be built around Kepler if he could be billed as a CF?

I would also consider Jonathan Villar. Not much OF experience, but that's less valuable to me. Glove quality seems questionable, but hopefully workable.

Seems odd, even with the out-of-line results this year. Even if (when) he gives back some of the gains he still seems like a good ~$1-2mil guy to have around.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1spLjFaQh9hvqc1AfPs2A-3eDiIlq9xT3GyYKPnxo8SI/edit?usp=sharing Hopefully the link works. If Andrelton Simmons was similarly priced to Profar (probably unlikely), I might go with him at SS and move Polanco to superutility. I'm not married to specifically May in the pen, but I'd target someone in the $5-7mil range. If ownership approved payroll similar to 2020, I'd look to upgrade OF to Springer or SP to Bauer.

I'm on board. If (when?) the big money SPs go elsewhere the Twins will have plenty of money to spend on the lineup. To me Grandal (or another C) makes the most sense.

I like Gray and Musgrove off that list. I wonder if the Dodgers will make anyone available. Ross Stripling is entering arbitration and Julio Urias is projected to be Super 2.

I like the idea of signing two free agent pitchers (Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel) but each of those would require 4+ year commitments. One of them cratering would be bad, but both would be disastrous. True, it's not my money, but it would be a drag to watch this team founder two years down the road because they have $55mil wrappped up in two guys and they "can't" make moves as a result. Therefore, I'd say sign one of those guys, extend the QO to Odorizzi, and target a pre-arb or early arb guy via trade. I haven't done a ton of research, but maybe a guy like Julio Arias (arb) or Brandon Woodruff or Joe Musgrove ( both pre-arb) would be available. My rotation would be (and I hate putting names to these exercises): Gerrit Cole $35mil Julio Urias $1.7mil Jose Berrios $5.4mil Jake Odorizzi $18mil Internal Candidate $600k I would offer Urias and Berrios the Severino/Blake Snell deal (4-5 years, $10mil per AAV), the first to accept gets it.

Wait, is he from Eden Prairie, or White Bear Lake? Or is he a huge WBL fan who lives in EP?

I would prefer Justin Bour to Matt Adams. Slightly better overall numbers vs RHP and cheaper.