Crackedfungo

As I said in a past post, take a look at Cleveland from 2016 forward. Bieber, Civale, (both 24 years old and up for last few years), and Clevinger (29 years old, and brought up in 2016 permanently) all had less or equal 'stuff' than 6 of our 9 and equal or less performance than the same in the minors, and are now the core of Cleveland's pitching staff. Cleveland mangement made the decision WHILE IN THEIR WINDOW to move these guys into the rotation in 2016, 2018, and 2019. Falvey was there at that time (or on the front of end of it). Perhaps he has the same plan here, and KNOWS that these Twins SP prospects are similar (or better?) and could complete the same transformation of the Twins SP Staff. We hired Falvey for a reason, and he has a track record with these types of developments in Cleveland. Like I said prior, if not NOW (bring 1-2 up each year), then WHEN?!? You cannot keep throwing dollars at depreciating SP assets while letting your languish in MiLB - it simply makes NO SENSE. Also, you can do it WHILE IN THEIR WINDOW, as Cleveland proved.

Don't sleep on Colina in 2020, either. He may be more of a RP, but he seems to deliver at each level as a SP as soon as he has been given some innings to acclimate. He could also add SP innings in late 2020, and be more of a contributor in 2021. These are all fresh young arms that have performed very well in the minors, but more importantly, they have the STUFF that pitchers like Gonsalves and Stewart were unable to exhibit in upper MILB and MLB

I believe Graterol will take one of the SP spots for a significant portion of 2020 by performance and future potential (they will manage his innings when Pineda and Hill return). The only question is whether they will let him do so from April 1, or by June 1. I believe Balazovic will be knocking on the door by July to August, and will make an impact by September that will be MUCH better than what we saw from Gibson and Perez last year at that time and may become a SP in meaningful games for stretch run (and will displace what we get from Bailey, Smeltzer, or Thorpe by that time - not sure about Dobnak). I don't think Duran will make an impact in 2020, but I am not ready to ignore Ober - something is up with a guy dominating like that through multiple levels in a year - it typically means that they have really found something that may carry them from an outlier prospect to one with real potential (I am not really sure how he gets his results - but something is certainly 'plus' about him with those results). He may arrive in September and force some consideration like Dobnak did last year - their rise was similar.

When in Twins history have they had this many plus pitchers (pitchers with 1 or more pitches at 60+ all at AA at the same time)? The answer is NEVER. We have been horrendous at assembling young pitchers with plus stuff in large groups. We have the 1 or 2 here or there, and when the one fails, we are screwed. All of Tier 1: Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, Tier 2: Colina, Ober, and Sands, and Tier 3: even Enlow, Chalmers and Canterino a bit later could be significant impact pitchers in 2-3 years or less. A few should be at least as good as a Gibson, one to three maybe at Berrios level, or perhaps even better. I don't think looking back into Twins history is a good barometer. We have had a horrible pitching philosophy ('pitch to contact' no 'missing bats' and no 'power pitching focus') through many regimes, with terrible scouting and drafting of pitchers (Adam Johnson, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Alex Wimmers, Kyle Waldrop, Carlos Guitierrez ring a bell?). Liriano and Johan were an EXCEPTION that we somewhat lucked into - they didn't really fit our philosophy, they just forced their way in due to performance. The philosophy has clearly changed with this regime, and many of these new SP prospects have more 'stuff,' and didn't cost us First Round picks. Thus, this is a different group of coaches and FO personnel with a different perception upon what constitutes effective pitching. I believe it will prove to be more effective. I have never been a fan of throwing BIG $ for past performance EXCEPT FOR a few that are closest to a sure thing for half their respective contract (Cole and Straus would fall into that camp, while I don't think Wheeler, Ryu or MadBum will).

That is EXACTLY what they are thinking. With as many upcoming SPs they have (6) at AA that have REAL plus potential with at least one to two pitches, I think they are following a path that will enable this to happen. They realize that they must build their own SP staff, as opposed to over-paying for past performance. I am all for it. I don't think their window closes before at least 2-3 of these young SPs are ready to make a real impact. We are looking at 6-12 months after the season starts for at least 1-3 of them. I like this approach, in spite of all the complaining on this site. I don't want a Ryu or MadBum underperforming for 3 more years (after 1-2 ok ones), or to be hamstrung for 4-6 years with a Straus or Cole contract, if it comes at the expense of getting 2-3 of our own the experience they need to be Berrios type contributors in 2-3 years..

They need to move on Walker as priority #1 in this scenario ASAP. He would be my #4 to start the season and fill Pineda’s initial missed starts and then see what you have. I would give him 2years at $12-$15 (but $15 only if tied to team option for third year at $7.5MM). I would also sign Wood if we cannot trade for a pitcher that is really a fit and at reasonable prospect cost (no top two player or top two pitchers, unless exceptional return: load up a lot of 5-20, as we will need to begin to clean up our 40 man for future years soon) and see what we have with these two running 3 and 4 to start the year, and possibly move the underperformer at trade deadline (adding our prospects in a separate trade for a better pitcher, or a call-up of an overperforming youngster who isn’t already in our #5spot or in relief). I would likely look to give Wood a similar deal (maybe $1-2MM lighter, as he is from NL, and lacks the same stuff as Walker). That way, you fill a void of Pineda and non or failed trade, and are able to make room for a youngster that is on the climb with pretty cheap and controllable deals for Walker and Wood (who are still young) if they have something left to offer us in 2020 and beyond or not. I, too, believe a better trade prospect will be available at trade deadline when teams cut bait on season and rebuild. Now is not really the best time to leverage a trade when most are optimistic about new season and an overpay is necessary. You will also have a better idea as to Balazovic, Duran, and Sands progress by that point - which may change your view on the need to trade for a long-term answer at SP (I am going to assume Graterol is the #5 or #6 on Twins, as he has little to gain by dominating AAA, and I am not of the belief that Smeltzer, Dobnak, or Thorpe beats him out). it may also change the age SP you are looking for based upon team record and young pitcher progress (or lack of progress).

This is a a GREAT and fact-based post. If I had to make a list of the pitchers I would love to have under 24, Shane Bieber would be in my Top 5-10. He is a perfect example of the type of development which allowed Cleveland to let a declining Kluber leave. Look at his scouting reports from as recently as 2017, post his being a 4th rounder and having pitched in college. He was their 11th ranked prospect at age 22. Bieber: Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50 Compare this with Graterol: Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55 Balazovic: Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55 Duran: Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 Enlow: Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 Colina: Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45 Sands: Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45 Vallimont: Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40 In terms of a comparative of the Twins pitchers that are probably closest to the majors and rated in Top 30, Bieber actually has no PLUS pitches. His best score was only a 55 in control, yet he won 11 games, had a 1.33 WHIP, and a 4.55 ERA in 2018 (and an All Star year of 18 wins, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.28 ERA and 259 K's in 2019). We have MULTIPLE options that seem to have a better profile than he did, and are close to knocking on the door of the MLB club (Sands seems to be the most similar profile). This is where I think our best pitching related results are going to come from versus FA or Trades in 2020, 2021, and 2022. If they can develop 1-3 of these pitchers that are at least at AA, re-signing Berrios and one of Odo or Pineda, we aren't having this conversation about FA's every year that may only produce for a few years (if we are lucky) of a long-term deal. I think we are in a unique position here with this depth. Atlanta is also in a similar boat, though maybe 1 year ahead. High potential help is getting very close, and we simply MUST place all the organizational focus upon seeing this through. That said, I am not even mentioning Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer, a Romero recovery, etc. What I am getting at, is our window is probably open for 3-4 years and beyond until we have to cycle to the next group of position players and we need to develop our next high-end pitching wave RIGHT NOW versus sign an overly risky FA now. My guess is that 2 of these SPs will be able to win 8-10, pitch to a 1.25 WHIP, and an ERA of 4.50-4.75 this year - Bieber and others like him have done so. If this what we might get from the remaining FAs, or a lower-end trade: NO THANKS!

BTW: Were we to add MadBum, my gut says that we will be fortunate to get 'Good Kyle Gibson' numbers in the regular season. I say this due to the AL effect, his away numbers from SF (pitchers park), his lessened velocity and penchant for giving up the long-ball with some short RF porches in the AL, etc. That said, I expect more 'Good MadBum' numbers in the playoffs, than 'Bad Kyle Gibson' numbers in the playoffs or 'Bad MadBum' numbers. I say this because MadBum is a big-game pitcher, and he has proven it enough to validate this for me (much more than any other current Twins pitcher, Wheeler, or any other pitcher we could reasonably consider at this point). That alone, makes the risk good enough for me at present in bringing him aboard. The only flyer I would take in 2020 would be Gaussman - for the 5 weeks that Pineda is out as our #4, not for the #5. Within that time period (and Spring Training), we should have a good idea if he can be fixed, and I expect that there might be some bumps in the road with Pineda's conditioning/stamina or other injuries that might be worth checking out Gaussman during that time (move him to RP if it isn't working out - he may be a find there where his above average stuff might play up further). In contrast to my post above, I add this option ONLY because we are in the unique situation with Pineda's early season suspension, which affords us this luxury, while cycling through the youngsters for the #5. Gaussman also shouldn't cost too much...though maybe 2-3 years will be necessary.

This is EXACTLY why you simply must leave the #5 spot (and 4 some years) open for one of the youngsters to get their opportunity to enter the rotation. This approach of continuing to load up on re-treads and reclamation projects for the #5 (keeping the young pitchers in the minors until they break down, are moved to relief, or are finally washed out) just makes NO sense. If not this year, then when? If we had done so two years ago with Romero as a FY starter, with one of Thorpe/Dobnak/Smeltzer most of last year versus Perez, and Graterol/Dobnak next year vs. TBN reclamation project, and Balazovic/Duran in 2021, we may/will have a solid answer on our internal prospects (which is what we did with Berrios). Otherwise, you have to continue to shop for free-agents or trades each year to re-build the staff when deals are up for the starters. I get that we are now a viable playoff team, but I don't think you are ever very successful in addressing the #5 with the re-tread/reclamation merry-go-round. History proves this. Thus, I say add one more veteran by FA or Trade. Then, leave the #5 open and make the young pitchers work to win it. You clearly have the numbers to find one viable option. Do the same the following year when Odo is at risk of coming off the books, and Pineda the following year. You need to build MOST of your staff in-house if you are not the Yankees or Boston - he77, even the Dodgers are a big money team and they build most of their pitching assets from within. Atlanta and St. Louis have also historically built most of their staffs from within and should be our model with a similar market and payroll most years (particularly now with our seemingly better pitching assessment and coaching acumen - and with the death of the pitch-to-contact failed philosophy of the Garden Gnome and his sidekick, Rick 'beachball's welcome' Anderson).

Larnach, Rosario, and Duran is WAY too much for Matthew Boyd. We have no reason to trade that much for a slightly above average pitcher for an everyday player (that flirts with All Star numbers), and 2 of our Top 8 prospects. Boyd will be 29, and has similar peripherals as Kyle Gibson (though is 3 years younger). Would you trade the haul proposed for Gibson - neither would I

This topic is getting a great deal of responses. The following it TRUE: 1) Rosario IS the second player in 20 years to bat over .276 and have 32HRs and 105+ RBI 2) Rosario DOES get negatively impacted with defensive stats when Buxton is in the game (it is a by-product of the system) 3) You can basically exchange Kepler's walks for more hits for Rosario - which moves base-runners beyond a base? 4) NONE of our potential replacements will replace Eddie's offensive statistics in MLB in 2020, 2021, or 2022 - as evidence of this fact - how many times have the prospects even exceeded his 2019 in their minor league career (average, HRs, XBH, RBI, RBI% with RISP)? 5) The same armchair GMs that don't want to extend him for a few more years are the same people who wanted to give away Sano as recently as this past May/June In short, it is embarrassing how many erroneous assessments we have seen from this group in 5 that do not own up to it after the fact..... 4) The same armchair GMs

That's NOT accurate. He has a plus 4 seam fastball (as high as 103), a plus two seam sinker (as high as 101), and a wipe-out slider. They are working on his change-up. This IS 3 pitches, and they are working on the 4th. Have you ever seen a 100+mph sinker? There might have been 1-2 prior, but it is clearly a 3rd pitch, as the bottom literally drops out.

Tremendous perspective in this article. I am looking for the Twins to move Graterol, and later, Balazovic quickly to MLB. Duran will depend upon whether he can master some control/command this year. Soroka is NOT the only example of really young players getting a shot and essentially skipping unnecessary time in MiLB, and saving their 'bullets' for MLB; which is what matters. If he proves he cannot handle it, there is always opportunity to send him down for some focus and clean-up. I am tired of watching the Twins wreck young pitching prospects by leaving them down on the farm until they blow up, or monkeying with them too much (Romero). It is cheaper to have 1-2 spots rely on younger pitchers, which would allow for one Top signing.

And Grossman is GROSS in the outfield. How many years did your eyes tell you that?

Eyeball test disputes many of the statistics. The statistics reward more 'safe play' than aggressive play (throwing, diving, etc). I would also add, with a player of Buxton's caliber next two either Eddie or Kep, more aggressiveness is warranted due to Buxton's ridiculous speed and angle to cover. No one seems to ever bring up that Rosario (bad ankle and all) is on of ONLY TWO twins players in 20 years to bat over .276 with 30+ (32 homers) and 100+ RBI. We need to be cognizant of these statistical contributions, his arm in the field, his bum ankle, his ability to play through pain and ignite the team, his importance in the clubhouse and in the clutch. These things ALL matter FWIW. No MLB fill-in, or Top AA prospect will deliver what Eddie can in the next 3 years.

Next point. What is the possibility that Rooker, Larnach, AK, or ? puts up those numbers (or better) in one of the next THREE years? I would put those odds at <10%. How do I know, take a look at their minor league numbers. If you correlate the length of season and at-bats, only AK has exceeded those numbers at A level two years ago - which doesn't have anywhere near the pitching of MLB. Good luck replacing Eddie's numbers, and note that he is reaching his peak, and will be healthier next year. Arm chair GMs like those this board is bursting with, are embarrassingly ill-informed.

I am going to repeat what I detailed on another thread regarding the Rosario bashing. In the last 25 years prior to this year, how many Twins had the following totals or MORE? 32 HRs 109 RBI .276+ BA One....Justin Morneau. This year, Eddie and Nelson delivered these numbers. These are numbers the homer, Mauer, NEVER achieved. Tip of the cap to Eddie, whom also nursed multiple injuries, but played on....which is what you want

This comment from your article was idiotic: "and even his “good” production in game three came through pitches he had no business generating positive results off." What the he77 does that even mean? Who has any business getting away with a pitch in the dirt, a grooved fastball, a snow cone catch, a batted ball off the rubber or a base, or a blooper over the shift? Sometimes results come from just being capable. Sorry, your article has many assumptions (that any touted minor league player can replace Eddie's production, clubhouse influence, etc), that Eddie is expendable and can create an equitable asset in a trade. Moreover, how many .278 hitters with 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs have we had in the past 25 years (before this year)? That's right, one. Justin Morneau. This year, he is joined by only Cruz. That makes 3 in 25 years. Yep, really expendable. What do you expect to get for him in terms of SP, and what will be the impact on the OF and in the clubhouse?

What still shocks me, is that they didn't play Kepler before the playoffs, they rolled the dice on Arraez ankle, they completely out-smarted themselves by saving their second best starter and 2 of 3 best relievers for elimination game. They also have had opportunities to pull pitchers before the 'wheels flew off', and waited one batter too long (Gibson, Duffey, Stashak). We should be disappointed with our hitters swinging at **** pitches on 3rd strike from Pax and Tanaka - Pax's bounced in front of the plate, but plate discipline has never been a strength (we should have scouted better and given all our K-victims take signals). Our ridiculous number of walks is mind-boggling against a team of free-swingers (which the Yankees are), and shows a gutless approach to challenging hitters. That is the game in a nutshell.

Three of the Twins best pitchers (which isn't saying much), have not pitched yet and we are down 0-2 with a must-win game or season is over. These would be; Odo, Rogers, and May. It doesn't matter the circumstances (see Scherzer and Nats), with limited pitching you simply must find a way to leverage your best. It has NOTHING to do with convention. That only matters if you have a bullet-proof and complete staff. I am at a loss......I also would have pitched Graterol again over Stashak and Littel, but that's just me.

Graterol in for the playoffs, but in lower leverage situations (not 0 or 1 run differential). Next year, he must start for most of the year, and IN THE MAJORS. If they want to ease him in with long relief early, a'la Santana, I am OK with that; particularly in April where 4 SPs may be fine. No Romero crap - full change to reliever - how did that work out? (He is now neither a SP or RP). Sign Odo and Pineda to add to Berrios - they have earned it, and start Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe race for early season #4, May/June and onward for #5. Gibson should be gone, and Perez should have his option picked up cheaply and forced to earn any starts (and/or cut him loose early season). We have plenty of other hard throwers like Acala or Romero, and Thorpe/Smeltzer/Dobnak 5 spot losers that can be added to current relievers mid/late year 2020 (Rogers and May can close from each side). Also, NO to Dallas Kuechel and anyone like him added to SP next year. Spend on new contracts for Sano and Rosario and maybe another year for Cruz - do it this winter. Work in Dobnak, Smeltzer, and others in 5 spot until you are sure they are not the answer throughout 2020 - we need to get rid of blockage. Very soon, you may have Balazovic, Doan, Colina (all in 2020); Sands, Valimont, Ober, and maybe Centerino (in 2021 to 2022) to work in or move to RP. Graterol needs to be handled correctly. He is TOO important to the future. Wasting those bullets in the minors at SP or at RP in the minors is what I said - a WASTE. He should spend the winter working on his change and refining difference between 2 seam and 4 seam and be ready for 1-4 innings in April per outing (perhaps paired with runner-up for early #4 and later #5 spot. I am also very excited about Balazovic in 2020, and maybe Doan. Exciting times for Twins with young SPs Those are my thoughts.....fire away

Thank the Lord we didn't pick up Kimbrel. He now has a 5.95 ERA, is 0-3 with a few blown saves, and has a WHIP of 1.53. He has given up 7 HRs in 19 innings, too. I would rather gamble on what we have (including youngsters) than burn $ on a deal for guys like this.

I would never trust T. Hildenberger in a high-leverage situation in the MLB playoffs unless he has several weeks of total stability. I want to see that they haven't figured him and his pedestrian stuff out - as I fear that MLB always figures these types of pitchers out, those that have more windup/delivery deception tHan true "stuff"

This analysis is consistent with what some of us have thought all along. Going for the high-end (expensive in $ and prospects) relievers is STUPID and rarely works out. It is better to scout your internal options or high ceiling options that are cheap and other teams don't have time/patience to develop due to scuffling and an inability to hit their peak (but something you can tweak).

I know he strikes out quite a bit. But, where are all those board members that wanted to dump Sano at his low point (4 of the 10 HRs)? He needs more time to become a complete player, but he is in a great place with Cruz, Baldelli, and all the minor league players he matriculated with, and the pressure if off him to carry the team. He is going to have a few monster years in the next few (if they get him signed).