bunt_vs_the_shift

A lot of good topics here, but we're 1 week in and I just want to see how many times I can force "our first place Minnesota Twins" into my various random work conversations today. Who knows how long it will last, but we've got the right combination of circumstances with a down division, a little depth and maybe even a little pitching...

This pretty well summarizes how I've been thinking through this. Castro's D definitely has value, but even with Tom's awesome pitch-framing graphics, there are a lot of intangibles at work and it is hard for me to quantify overall defensive contributions from one catcher to another (and having never played catcher, it's a tougher read for me than other positions). Offensively, with Astudillo eclipsing 100 ABs, it sure looks like his bat can play at more than just catcher but if he can catch, he adds a lot of value offensively to the lineup. Defensively, he doesn't seem out of place - or at least he doesn't look any worse than Garver to me and IMO he actually appears to be the most athletic of the 3, which in theory should give him the most upside to improve there if he gets enough reps. I'm excited to let this play out a little more and see what we have!

Really great breakdown. Makes me rethink how I look at Castro and his contributions! (I still don't want him at bat in a tough spot, but I definitely want him behind the plate handling our staff!)...

In looking at baseball reference, Castro's career OPS as a Twin is .681... but beyond analytics, he just never seems to do the little things offensively like advancing runners, putting the ball in play with a guy on 3rd, or let alone coming through with a big hit. So, his offense doesn't do much for me and I'm hoping he can make an impact behind the plate like it sounds like he did yesterday

I was game-casting from work, so I didn't actually see the game. Are you being serious or sarcastic with Castro and his pitch framing? I haven't been a big Castro guy on account of his miserable offense, but I do think he is solid on D and handled the staff pretty well during 2017. If Buxton hits and our new additions produce, this is the exact kind of lineup where we could hide a good defensive catcher who is generally a liability with the bat...

That. Was... Awesome. Great article

X2 on this. You've got to love the "guy who wasn't supposed to be here" getting a shot. For whatever the reason, they don't fit the profile for what a professional should be and yet they persevere in spite of it. Sometimes they're drafted in the 37th round and sometimes they may bare a slight resemblance to younger, distant cousin of Bartolo Colon... Either way, I'll be pulling for Harper and Astudillo

My kinda team, Charlie... My kinda team

I'll throw my hat in the ring on Austin. The power he has doesn't come around every day and he's exactly the type of guy that we should turn into a "project", similar to a big guy with potential on a basketball team. I'm sure we're trying some things, but why can't we spend some time on him and deploy our new technology towards fixing some of his issues? Small sample size (and I acknowledge the 42 SO as something needing to be addressed by the technology referenced above) but 9 HR in 35 games is hard to ignore...

Buxton has always seemed like a decent, humble guy, but this year he definitely seems like he's got an edge to him, which is refreshing to me. Up to this point, I think he's felt the need to live up to his prospect hype, but after last September it seems like he's shifted into "I'll show you" mode and is showing some fire, which is a mindset that some people need to have to be productive. In a perfect world, if he could parlay some early success into a true leadership role, it would be transformative for this team. I know the Torii comparison has been made and I don't know how fair that is, but how great would it be to see a world where Buxton takes exception to getting thrown at and chucks the ball back at Danys Baez? I'm not advocating for brawling just to brawl, but I am advocating for Buxton standing up for himself and finally being the guy he can become.

In my 30 years as a Twins fan, it's hard to think of another player like Rosario that I've done such a 180 on. He's dramatically reduced the cringe-worthy defensive lapses and improved his pitch selection at the plate. On top of that, the way he consistently barrels up pitches when he does swing outside the zone is reminiscent of Kirby back in the day. He's gone from a guy who would drive me crazy to one of my favorite guys to watch and someone who will only occasionally drive me crazy... That said, the Minnesotan in me just automatically thinks about the possibility of injury. if he did have to miss any significant time, what kind of does anyone know if Kiriloff plays any LF? Who knows where Gonzalez may be needed and Cave seems like a decent backup, but not someone I'd want to give extended run to if it can be helped.

Lower achilles sounds scary. As a past critic, I do feel bad for Sano. By all accounts he committed himself to the process this offseason and I really felt like he was going to come in with a chip on his shoulder and start to play to his potential, so let's hope this is just a minor setback. Sure would be nice to have that Escobar guy to just step in and be productive... Go get em Marwin! (and of course, Astudillo)

Is there skill required to drop a bunt down? Yes. Is there skill required to take a walk? Usually. Is the same skill level required to drop a bunt down vs. a normal alignment as with a shift when you have the entire left side of the infield open? Of course not. It is considerably less difficult to push a ball to the left side when no one is playing 3rd or even short sometimes. If you put it in play and don't pop it up near the pitcher or catcher it's a hit. But let's take your premise. Yes, you give up the opportunity for that extra base. You are trading that for extending the inning for your team and giving the next batter an opportunity, just as with a walk. I believe that even a player who bunts infrequently should be able to get down 1 of 2 successfully (and yes, I believe against a pronounced shift, that means it's a hit), but for argument's sake, let's say it's 1 of 3. You asked, who would I like to see do this for the Twins? The answer depends on the context of the game (the inning, score, etc.) but if I'm using a 1 of 3 success rate as the number, I believe only Mauer and Escobar had a higher OBP than .333 of the starters. I'm not saying I want Sano to start laying down bunts, but rally killers like Castro when they're shifting? Guys who are scuffling, especially if they have a little speed? Yes. It's the same concept as a slump-busting bloop or a seeing eye single and I would argue that any sort of hit has a psychological impact on the confidence of the hitter, so you have an intangible value there, not to mention how it frustrates the opponent. Finally, if this were done more consistently within those parameters do I think teams will adjust their alignment? Yes.

I'm sure this is shocking given the handle, but I agree. I don't understand why a walk is considered a win when it comes to getting on base, but a bunt is somehow a lesser achievement. Not only did it require more skill, but as mentioned, it also plays with the psyche of your opponent. I'ts simply adjusting to the adjustment of the defensive alignment. Even showing them that you'll do it once or twice a game could open up the field for your more standard approach. There's obvious context you would have to apply in terms of who is on base and when you would do this, but why would you swing the bat when they are in essence, giving you an intentional walk? The fact that there's reduced defensive emphasis on it should only make it more effective.

What is the ceiling for Astudillo as a catcher? From an entertainment factor alone, I'd like to see more Astudillo at the park, but I don't know if he brings enough defensively to be a backup to the backup if Garver gets hurt

Twins win! That feels good to say regardless of who we're playing. And now that we have the middle of our lineup figured out with Forsythe-Cave-Garver at the 4-5-6?...

The managerial grooming angle is correct. Gimenez will be brought on board in an official capacity as the special assistant in charge of battling your tail off

While it's fun to speculate on early performance, I think 3 years is probably more reasonable to evaluate FO performance from a comprehensive standpoint. I'm sure Falvine pitched Jim Pohlad on a "ground up" approach and thus far, I think the stocking of the farm system aspect has gone fairly well. FA signings were a step up from the TR regime (which was a low bar) while they all haven't worked out as well as we hoped, I think those have been ok. Now please excuse my gratuitous Sano rant... The in-season intervention gets an A. The offseason lack of intervention gets an F. To me, this was a completely avoidable situation that they should have seen coming from a mile away. I can't speak to his minor league career, but as a major leaguer has the dude ever shown up in shape? He's coming off a season where he wore down because of the extra weight and missed a damn playoff game! As arguably the most talented guy on the team and with increased expectations, how did we not have someone on that??!! I am a "take responsibility for your own actions" guy. And Sano needs to own the fact he completely F'd up his own season. Hopefully, this will never happen again. That said... the FO needs to take some responsibility here too. If we needed to hire a team mom like Last Chance U or air drop a nutritionist to the DR to make him eat some damn vegetables and get in the gym, then do it!! The FO can't control in-season performance, but they can monitor what he does in the offseason. We didn't have to lose a season's worth of production out of him on account of how he showed up.

I absolutely agree with the adjustment statement. It's probably one of the biggest factors in watching Joe's "frustrating greatness" if you want to call it that. He's never adjusted to the adjustment. Watching him hit line drives is a thing of beauty. Watching him hit line drives down the line for outs to the left fielder is a thing of frustration. All that said, he is who he is as a player. It seems like he has the skill set to hit over .300 in his sleep, even at an old age... And yet, he doesn't. But I will still go down a Mauer supporter. Guys run hot and cold, but over time he has been consistent. In my 30+ years of watching Twins baseball, I can't think of anyone not named Puckett who I'd rather have up there in a clutch spot.

Hey folks, long time lurker, finally joining the party. Of all of the trades, this is probably the one that I'm most indifferent about. Rodney is not part of the future, so I don't mind cutting the cord. I'm all for adding pitching depth. We're adding bodies and sooner or later, we're going to hit on a guy or two. That said... out of all of the moves being made, can somebody explain to me why we're not taking a flier on a catcher? It seems to me like that's the weakest position in the organization. If we're adding bodies and taking fliers, why aren't we doing it there? We're a Garver injury from a Wilson/Astudillo experience. Now that we're in full on lost season mode, I feel like I can say that last part out loud.