bunsen82

This is the definition of small sample size. However Detroit has been drastically behind the curve on analytics. It may not be so much Castro is a late bloomer as much as the education and support isn’t as developed as with the Twins approach. That gives me hope they may be able to tweak something. However I would think it’s in Castros best interest to continue to develop in AAA rather than in the big leagues. Maybe he can make the adjustments no matter where he is . . . Or it doesn’t matter and midnight is coming in either case, it was a worthwhile gamble and he looks like an equivalent or step up to palacios. I continue to be impressed by the front office of making marginal improvements that add up over time.

First off I fully agree potential supersedes production often on these prospect lists. In the same token, it takes true talent and stuff to make it to the big leagues and then be successful. Ok so let’s talk honestly, his raw stuff in 2020 and 2021 was elite even for college pitchers. This is what makes the scouts and projections state he has the potential to be an ace or a #2 pitcher. Now lets be clear he hasn’t pitched in 2 years (not 3 as has been stated). Honestly I think one of the biggest thing that hurt Priellip last year in the draft was making the decision early to not pitch and to only focus on the scouts in controlled outings. There was no sacrifice for the team this was clearly what he thought would best serve him in the draft. Even still by all standards he was well in the recovery window to slow play it. If I have any red flag, this might be it I see #1 pitchers ultimately as bulldogs wanting the ball and will run through a brick wall, this may have been a smart play but also very passive. Had he came out even in relief and struck out a couple of the top hitters he is a top 15 pick. Otherwise one injury or tommy John doesn’t make a player injury prone. In some cases it takes that risk down significantly in the future. I think health wise we will be pleasantly. Surprised. As to the stuff if he pitches the way I expect him to he will be top 5 in the prospect rankings in short order. Right now if he shows he can produce even in the lower levels his prospect ranking sky rockets. I wish good health and stand out performances.

My guess is 280 to 300 million. You had the Red Sox bidding against the Padres and also the Cubs. The Yankees Dodgers and Red Sox don’t appear to want to get involved due to the cheating scandal. So we have the cubs Twins and Giants. Giants have to outbid due to higher taxes. They have money to spend so they may just throw out a crazy offer like judge. My guess is they don’t. The cubs seem to have focused on Dansby. Twins may end up with the best offer.

I wouldn’t be so sure. The cubs for some reason are not as enamored with Correa. I could see it coming down to us and the Giants.

That didn’t occur with Lee.

To me this is where it is big. It seems like most years past the number 1 picks there is a tier if 4-6 really solid players and them after that a drop off. The twins benefitted this year in 2022 as to me there were 7 solid prospects and then a drop off. However 1-2 gems drafted players rated lower either due to falling in love with a prospect or managing the draft pool. We then had brooks Lee fall in our laps.

That is a big jump for the Twins. This will increase the available salaries to maneuver for better prospects and set us up for a really good prospect in the first round.

Correa and Buxton would be 2 elite players you can build an offense around year in and year out if they remain healthy. The contract makes sense on that front. For a year and only a year we will have excess pitching and within 2 years most of it will be gone. We will have spent a lot of prospect capital for the next 1-2 year window. I struggle with what it would take to get Correa to sign. What it will mean is the organization will have to continually hit on prospects in the next 4-5 years to make this work. They will have limited funds to fill in the gaps for the next 6 years. I think we would be better off gambling on Lewis becoming a top 5 shortstop. At this point it is a wait and see.

I will say 30% chance. The Yankees will spend their money on resigning Judge, Where I think this falls is on the Dodgers and Trea Turner. I think the Dodgers are willing to resign Turner and can outspend any other team. So does Trea Turner want to go back to a team on the East coast or resign, I say he will resign. So then it really opens up. Cubs and Atlanta could outspend. I think the Twins feel comfortable with Correa. They may be willing to do a bigger contract now that he has been in the system for a year. 7 years 245 million-250 million is the end game. If the Twins are serious which I think they are, and the two major bidders are out of the equation, the Twins have a punchers shot.

1st off we paid Julien more than Seth Gray (our 4th round draft pick). He had a heck of a run in the college world series and started to ask more than was likely agreed to when the Twins initially signed, but they were able to find the initial money to sign him after he had said he was going back. To me, he was another lottery pick that year similar to Holland. Of the two I wish Holland had hit as he is a shortstop, but Julien performing well is still a win. 2nd base and our future utility player or trade chip comes down to Martin or Julien likely. I anticipate they each will get a taste at the big leagues next year.

They won't so not even worth thinking about it. They may pay 1 year for Correa or another SS to try to do the same thing this year, give a potential trade chip while they wait for the young guns to take over.

For Martin it comes down to getting comfortable with what the Twins are asking him to do at the plate and playing defense and getting healthy. He quietly got better on defense throughout the year. He had a very rough beginning of the year on the defensive side of things. He may never be an elite SS, but a good bat average defense has a place in this game. There is flexibility in his game that he can likely move to second or Outfield. We are starting to get a glut of SS prospects, although if all make it to the big leagues you could have infield of Martin 2nd, Lewis at SS, Lee at 3rd. My gut feel is Martin is a 300 hitter, 400 plus OBP mid .800 OBP player with lots of steals. I received lots of pushback this summer. He has now had 2 injury riddled years along with some subpar hitting. However, with better confidence and a more refined swing I think we will start to see Martin get back to the hitter he was before.

Where is the article about how many players have outplayed their rankings. You would have at least 6 up to 12 players including those that were traded. Headrick, Festa, (Hajjar, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, Povich - all traded) Raja, Varland, Celestino, Winder, Ryan, Julien, Palacios, Helman, Mooney, Raya, Rodriguez. This also doesn't consider other players that are doing well. Overall the prospects played better than expected overall.

Baseball reference has him as 3.3 WAR player. He will likely get to 4 WAR by the end of the year. Personally this about as good as you can ask for and for the Twins situation I think they will be more than happy if Correa opts into another year to let Lewis get healthy. Correa will have essentially played to the contract and if he opts in good deal.

The asked Falvey to name some prospects that have impressed them and could help in the future and he only named Varland. Said he would be helping the team sooner rather than later.

On the interview this weekend they stated how much they like Varland, essentially insinuated he may be up with the big league team at the end of the season.

But he is playing to his contract and people are acting like he is playing poor. He is not playing poor, He is still likely in the top 15% of all players, he is just not in the top 1-2% like he has had in a few seasons. A lot of things have to go right to get those types of seasons.

Since when is a 3-4 WAR player considered a poor player? If Correa hits 4 WAR he will be worth 34 million dollars. No offense this is pretty good productions. Point two is check out Correa stats. He historically has an excellent season followed by a good to great season. This seems to follow that trend. If we can get an extra season out of this contract all the better.

Falvey was I’m MLB on XM. Few tidbits. They view Mahle as a middle of the rotation starter. I thought they higher hopes for him. Duran will be the reliever used in high leverage points at any time in the game. Larnach and Maeda are the players most likely to get healthy and help in the home stretch in Sept. A prospect they really like is Varland and stated he may help out sooner rather than later. Also talked about trading Povich an Steer. Also How well Miranda and Gordon are playing really well.

Part of the roster crunch has been resolved because we just traded away 2 players that would have needed to be added. steer SGL. Isola, Headrick, Helman, Canterino are players that need to be added or possibly lost.

Correa is on track to a 4 WAR Season. At $8.5 million per a WAR he hits a 4 War season and he met his contract. No offense, that is one hell of a season. Even if it isn't as good as last years. When you are shooting for one of the highest contracts in history though, it might be slightly below what you want to go into free agency with.

Correa has had a very good season, but nothing like what he had last year. The other issue is there is more SS coming out than spots available. This may be one of the few times where Boras says you might be better off staying on the deal you have or the Twins renegotiation the exact same deal again for 3 years and 2 more opt outs.

It has been reported the twins coveted Mahle more than any other pitcher on the market. Whether due to his lower cost or the expectation he may be as good or better than Castillo or Montas. Mahle cost quite a bit but we have the option of giving him a qualifying offer and if he does as well as we think he will that would turn into a pick at the end of the first round. Or we get him for another year. So right now we are looking at 1 year 2 months and a future end of the first round draft pick, or 2 years and 2 months for Mahle. That is a pretty good return. I truly think the twins think he is an ACE. We will see if that comes to fruition or not. As to Lopez, this current version of him, he is a stud. 7 pitches 3 up 3 down. I was talking with my uncle yesterday and he thought I needed to know what a closers roll is since we haven't had one since Molitor left :). It was refreshing to not load the bases and hope we can get out of the inning by the skin of out teeth. Lopez for 2+ years for 1 solid prospect, and older reliever with control issues and 2 flyers seems like a very good deal for the Twins. Fulmer for a player potential at risk in the rule V draft works out very well for the Twins. Its another reliable arm to spread out the stress and responsibilites. If Maeda can make it back and be a solid reliever in the bullpen, the bullpen is suddenly a strength of the team. The trades made help as much for next year as this year. The cherry on top may be that Correa seems to be really invested in this team and organization. There is more of a possibility he may be willing to either not opt out or take a team friendly deal ( I use this term loosely). This puts the ball in managements court on how they want to attack next years team, but if Correa stays, we will have likely one of the top 5-6 teams in MLB and a legit shot at the World Series.

Beyond the trades the most interesting thing of the trade deadline is Correa. He is engaged, passionate and seems to want what is best for the organization. The fact he was not only lobbying for players to trade for but now has vouched for Miranda twice this season, once to keep him up with the big league team when he struggled and now to say he doesn’t want him traded. He appears to be playing the long game with the Twins and doesn’t seem to want to leave any time soon which is fantastic. If so I would love to be a fly on the wall at the end of the season. The best option may be for Correa to not opt out and remain on the team. Honestly with Lewis injured and rehabbing this would be a great outcome. We have a long way to go on this but needless to say I am pleasantly surprised.

I wouldn't be surprised if the twins are able to add another tick or two to the fastball.