Andrew Thares

The first few seasons of Kennys Vargas’ career have been a bit of a disappointment for the Twins. Vargas came up in 2014 as a player with a lot of potential, and was considered by many to be the inevitable replacement for Joe Mauer at first base. Despite a few bright moments with the bat, Vargas hasn’t quite lived up to his expectations. Over his 859 career plate appearances, Vargas has a slash line of .253/.314/.444, with 35 home runs and an even 100 wRC+. While these numbers aren’t terrible, they are no where near what you would hope for from a first baseman. The Twins do still have 4 years of team control of Vargas, but now might be the time for the Twins to look to move on from him. A few teams that I could see drawing interest in Vargas would be the Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals. Now where would the Twins go to get this potential upgrade for Kennys Vargas. For that, we can look at our neighbors to the East, in the Milwaukee Brewers’ right-handed hitting first basemen Jesus Aguilar. After struggling in very limited playing time with Cleveland, Aguilar was claimed off waivers by Milwaukee prior to the 2017 season. In his first season with the Brewers, Aguilar had some success, posting a .265/.331/.505 slash line and a wRC+ of 112. He did this in limited playing time, seeing just 311 plate appearances, despite appearing in 133 games. This was mostly due to the fact that he spent the season in a platoon with Eric Thames. There are many similarities between Kennys Vargas and Jesus Aguilar. Both players are big, power-hitting first basemen, who have never been given an opportunity to be an everyday player at the Major League level, but have had success at it in the minors. Both players are nearly identical in age (Aguilar is one month older than Vargas), though, Aguilar is controllable for and additional season. They are also very similar defensively, with Vargas having a DRS (defensive runs saved above average) of 1 over 756 career innings at 1st, while Aguilar has a DRS of 0 over 629 career innings at first. Despite all these similarities, there is one key difference between the two, and that is their ability to hit left-handed pitching. Last year, Vargas struggled mightily against lefties, positing an abysmal 56 wRC+ against them, while Aguilar posted a very strong 127 wRC+ against lefties. Aguilar's ability to hit lefties would bring a big upgrade to the Twins, who collectively hit for a 96 wRC+ versus lefties in 2017, compared to a 104 wRC+ against right handed pitching. This could also play out big in the long term if they are unable to resign Brian Dozier after 2018, as he provides much of the Twins production against left-handed pitching. Jesus Aguilar can hold his own against right-handed pitching as well. Last season, Aguilar gathered a .806 OPS, and a wRC+ of 104 against his weaker side. This bodes well for his chances to become an everyday threat in the Twins lineup. The Statcast metrics appear to favor Aguilar over Vargas as well. In 2017, Aguilar’s xwOBA was a respectable .330, while Varges’ was a mere .303. A lot of this can be attributed to Aguilar’s 89.2 MPH average exit velocity, compared to Varges’ 86.3 MPH average exit velocity. Here is are a couple charts that compare the quality of contact that Jesus Aguilar and Kennys Varges made in 2017. For a little reference on how to read these charts, they show the six different qualities of contact defined by Statcast. Each dot measures the launch angle and exit velocity of a batted ball event by the hitter. The top three categories (Barrels, Solid Contact and Flares & Burners) usually result in hits, while the bottom three categories (Topped, Hit Under and Weak Contact) usually result in outs. From these charts we can see that Jesus Aguilar does a better job of hitting for quality contact than does Kennys Vargas. On 44% of his batted balls, Aguilar made contact in one of the top three batted ball categories, while Vargas only managed to do this on just 36% of his batted balls. We can also see that Vargas has real trouble with hitting too many grounders, as he hit toppers on roughly 39% of his batted balls. So, why might the Brewers be willing to trade Jesus Aguilar? Well, last season, to make room for Aguilar at first, the Brewers would often move Thames to one of the corner outfield positions. However, with the Brewers’ recent additions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, it is hard to imagine them employing that same strategy again this year, with what will be a very crowed outfield. With the Brewers not having the luxury of the DH, they might look to move Aguilar as there is simply no room for him. This means it would be the perfect opportunity for the Twins to swoop in and potentially buy low. Pulling off this move to acquire Jesus Aguilar, and subsequently trading Kennys Vargas, could be a big move that will not only add to the Twins bench this season, but could provide a better option long term at first, if Joe Mauer walks after 2018. So, what do you think? Is making a move for Jesus Aguilar something that the Twins should pursue, or would they be better off staying put with the way things are, and seeing if Kennys Vargas can develop into the player many hoped he would become?

Imagine if the Twins traded for the Indians catching prospect Sicnarf Loopstok. That would make a great battery.

Predicting prospects that a team will need to give up is next to impossible, which is why I didn't make any predictions in the post, but I can take a stab at it here. I see the Twins needing to give up 2 or 3 players to get this done. I could see the Twins giving up a top prospect like Alex Kirilloff or Nick Gordan; then a next tier guy like Lewin Diaz or Lewis Thorpe; and then a lower level player as a throw in.

It is no question that the Twins top priority this offseason remains on signing free agent Yu Darvish. However, as the season nears, they may need to shift their focus towards an alternative option to fill an open spot in their rotation, especially now that Ervin Santana is expected to miss the first month of the season after having surgery on the middle finger on his right hand. There is a lot of speculation that the Twins will sign one of the other remaining free agent starters if they fail to land Darvish. While many of the available starters are quality pitchers, there isn’t a lot of long term upside to any of them, as they are all on the wrong side of 30. Another option that the Twins have to bolster their rotation would be through a trade. One pitcher many people have speculated about this offseason is Chris Archer. While Archer would be a great addition for the Twins, he will cost them a fortune in terms of prospects. However, there are other pitchers out there on the trade market that the Twins could go after, and one very intriguing pitcher that nobody has been talking about this winter is Atlanta Braves starter Julio Teheran. Teheran has spent parts of seven seasons pitching for the Braves, but despite that, he just turned 27 in January. On his contract, Teheran still has 2 years and $19M guaranteed, with a third-year team option for $12M. This means that if the Twins trade for Teheran, they will control him during his prime for a lot less money than it would take to sign either Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Even though Teheran hasn’t been seriously linked to any trade discussions this offseason, there was a lot of talk before the trade deadline last July about the Braves interest in trading him. Moving Teheran would make a lot of sense for Atlanta, as they are a team that is still a year or two away from contention and could add to their already deep farm system. For the Twins, Julio Teheran would be an ideal candidate to slide into their rotation. Teheran has shown that he is durable, as he has pitched at least 185 innings in every season since he became a full-time starter in 2013. He has done this all to the tune of a career 3.59 ERA. One down side to Teheran is he is coming off a bad 2017, where he posted a career worst 4.49 ERA, and a disheartening 4.96 xFIP. The biggest reason for this drop in performance was his increased walk rate, which jumped up to 3.44 BB/9. From the chart below, you can see that Teheran’s control seems to be the driving factor in his production. As you can see, if Teheran can control his walk rate he has the ability to be a front of the rotation starter for the Twins. One promising note is, despite the high walk rate, Teheran’s strike percentage didn’t seem to drop off all that much in 2017, as it did in 2015. This is a good sign that perhaps Teheran hasn’t suddenly lost his command, and that he could easily bounce back to form in 2018. When diving into Teheran’s Statcast numbers, there is some more reason to be optimistic that he will bounce back in 2018. Teheran did a good job last season at not allowing hard contact, by posting an average exit velocity against of 86.3 MPH. This ranked just ahead of pitchers like Chris Sale, Zack Greinke and Carlos Martinez who were all at 86.4 MPH. In 2017, Teheran fell victim to pitching in front of the terrible Atlanta Braves defense. Last season, the Braves ranked 27th in Major League Baseball with -43 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). A move to the Twins, who had +17 DRS last year, would be a big upgrade for Teheran. A big portion of that upgrade would be in the outfield, where the Braves finished 2017 with -7 Outs Above Average (OAA), while the Twins finished with +31 OAA. This plays right into Teheran’s hands, as he had the 14th highest flyball rate among qualified starters last season. This poor defense by the Braves goes a long way in explaining why Julio Teheran allowed a 0.334 wOBA last season (0.321 was MLB average), despite his xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average) of 0.318. With Teheran coming off of a down season, the Twins will have an opportunity to buy low on a pitcher that has the upside to become the Twins #2 starter, just as he is entering his prime. If he is not able to return to his pre-2017 form, and continues his struggles with his command, Teheran will most likely slot somewhere in the middle or back of the Twins’ rotation. In either scenario, Teheran would bring the Twins an element of much needed depth to the starting rotation, and could potentially prevent the front office from being forced into calling up one of the prospects before they feel that they are ready.

Eddie Rosario O-Swing% by season: 2015: 45.6% 2016: 41.7% 2017: 37.6% This a good sign that Rosario is improving on his plate discipline as he matures.

Over the past couple of seasons, Ervin Santana has been one of the lone bright spots in an organization that is starved for starting pitching. In 2016, Santana put up the Twins’ lowest ERA from a qualified starting pitcher, at 3.38, since Johan Santana’s 3.33 in 2007. He followed that up in 2017 by improving his ERA to 3.28, the fifth lowest in the American League. This was a big turnaround for a pitcher who had an ERA of 4.16 over his 11 seasons prior to 2016.So, what is the reason for Ervin Santana’s success over the last couple of seasons? Well, it is quite simply his slider, or more specifically, the usage of his slider. Throughout his career, Ervin Santana’s slider has always been considered his best pitch. However, since his slider isn’t a big wipe-out pitch, like that of a Max Scherzer or Chris Sale, it has never been considered to be one of the best in the game. According to FanGraphs’ Pitch Value metrics, in 2017, Ervin Santana’s slider measured out at 1.83 runs above average per 100 sliders thrown. This was the sixth best number by a qualified starting pitcher last season. Max Scherzer led the way at 3.33 runs above average, more than a full run over the nearest pitcher. The Pitch Value metrics weren’t the only measuring system that liked Ervin Santana’s slider. Again, among qualified starting pitchers in 2017, Santana allowed the fifth lowest wOBA on his slider at a mere .211 (MLB average wOBA in 2017 was .321). Again, Scherzer was way ahead of the pack, posting a .138 wOBA allowed on his slider. If you prefer to look at more traditional statistics, Santana allowed a .162 batting average against on his slider last season, which ranked sixth in major league baseball, and of the 31 home runs Ervin Santana allowed last season, just eight of them were off of his slider. As you can see, the numbers clearly back up the fact that Ervin Santana had one of the best sliders in MLB in 2017, and if you go back beyond that you will see that this has been the case for nearly all of his career. So, what has made the last couple of seasons different, better, than the majority of the first 11 seasons of his career? Quite simply, it has been the vamped-up usage rate of his slider. In 2015, Santana’s first season with the Twins, he threw his slider on 33.7 percent of pitches on his way to a 4.00 ERA. In 2016 and 2017, however, he increased his slider usage rate up to 36.8 percent and 36.5 percent, respectively. This increase, factored in over the course of a full season, adds approximately 100 extra sliders that Santana is throwing instead of either his fastball or change-up, which are much worse pitches for Santana. While back-to-back seasons of increased slider outputs coinciding with improved pitching by Santana is noticeable, it is hard to say that this is an established trend. So, I decided to look back at Santana’s numbers through the course of his career to see if this pattern has always been the case, or if maybe it was just a coincidence. In the chart listed below, each of Ervin Santana’s 13 career MLB seasons are ranked by slider usage rate and matched up with his ERA in that season to see which years had the lowest ERA comparatively. Along with that is a linear model that illustrates the correlation between Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate and his ERA. Download attachment: SantanaGraph1.png Download attachment: SantanaGraph2.png When looking at the linear model, we can see that there is indeed a negative correlation between Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate and his ERA. This means that as his slider usage rate goes up, his ERA goes down. As is almost always the case with data, it would be nice to have more data points to reference in order to gain an even clearer picture of the effect Santana’s slider has on his ERA, but 13 seasons of this being the case is still pretty strong evidence. In the chart, we can break down some of the numbers even further. In each of the five seasons where Santana used his slider the most, he had one of his six lowest ERAs of his career, including each of the top four. We can also see that the three seasons where Santana had the lowest slider usage rate were also the first three seasons of his career. This is a result of Santana ditching his curveball that he threw early in his career to start focusing more on his slider. Now, to say that Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate is the end all and be all for his success would be foolish. There are many factors at play when it comes to the success that he will have in a given season, but for Santana, it appears that his slider usage rate is one of the more important individual factors when it comes to determining his success. So, what can the Twins take away from this? Obviously, Santana can’t begin to just throw his slider on every pitch, as opposing hitters will adjust, and make his slider less effective. There is also a point where if Santana throws too many sliders, it will wear on his arm. I think the best approach would be to try and increase his slider usage by a couple percentage points to start the season and see what kind of effect this has on his performance. Click here to view the article

Over the past couple of seasons, Ervin Santana has been one of the loan bright spots in an organization that is starved for starting pitching. In 2016, Santana put up the Twins’ lowest ERA from a qualified starting pitcher, at 3.38, since Johan Santana’s 3.33 in 2007. He followed that up in 2017 by improving his ERA to 3.28, the 5th lowest in the American League. This was a big turnaround from a pitcher who had an ERA of 4.16 over his 11 career seasons prior to 2016. So, what is the reason for Ervin Santana’s success over the last couple of seasons? Well, it is quite simply his slider, or more specifically the usage of his slider. Throughout his career, Ervin Santana’s slider has always been considered his best pitch. However, since his slider isn’t a big wipe-out pitch, like those of a Max Scherzer or Chris Sale, it has never been considered to be one of the best in the game. According to Fangraphs’ Pitch Value metrics, in 2017, Ervin Santana’s slider measured out at 1.83 runs above average per 100 sliders thrown. This was the 6th best number by a qualified starting pitcher last season. Max Scherzer lead the way at 3.33 runs above average, more than a full run over the nearest pitcher. The Pitch Value metrics weren’t the only measuring system that liked Ervin Santana’s slider. Again, among qualified starting pitchers in 2017, Santana allowed the 5th lowest wOBA on his slider at a mere 0.211 (MLB average wOBA in 2017 was 0.321). Again, Scherzer was way ahead of the pack, posting a 0.138 wOBA allowed on his slider. If you prefer to look at more traditional statistics, Santana allowed a 0.162 batting average against on his slider last season, which ranked 6th in Major League Baseball, and of the 31 home runs Ervin Santana allowed last season, just 8 of them were off of his slider. As you can see, the numbers clearly back up the fact that Ervin Santana had one of the best sliders in Major League Baseball in 2017, and if you go back beyond that you will see that this has been the case for nearly all of his career. So, what has made the last couple of seasons different than the majority of the first 11 seasons of his career? Quite simply, it has been the vamped-up usage rate of his slider. In 2015, Santana’s first season with the Twins, he threw his slider on 33.7% of pitches, on his way to a 4.00 ERA. However, in 2016 and 2017, he increased his slider usage rate up to 36.8% and 36.5% respectively. This increase factored in over the course of a full season, adds approximately 100 extra sliders that Santana is throwing instead of either his fastball or change-up, which are much worse pitches for Santana comparably. While back-to-back seasons of increased slider outputs coinciding with improved pitching by Santana is noticeable, it is hard to say that this is an established trend. So, I decided to look back at Santana’s numbers throughout the course of his career to see if this pattern has always been the case, or if maybe it was just a coincidence. In the chart listed below, each of Ervin Santana’s 13 career MLB seasons are ranked by slider usage rate and matched up with his ERA in that season to see which seasons had the lowest ERA comparatively. Along with that, is a linear model that illustrates the correlation between Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate and his ERA. When looking at the linear model, we can see that there is indeed a negative correlation between Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate and his ERA. This means that as his slider usage rate goes up, his ERA goes down. As is almost always the case with data, it would be nice to have more data points to reference in order to gain an even clearer picture of the effect Santana’s slider has on his ERA, but 13 seasons of this being the case is still pretty strong evidence. In the chart, we can break down some of the numbers even further. In each of the five seasons where Santana used his slider the most, he had one of his six lowest ERAs of his career, including each of the top four. We can also see that the three seasons where Santana had the lowest slider usage rate were also the first three seasons of his career. This is a result of Santana ditching his curveball that he threw early in his career to start focusing more on his slider. Now, to say that Ervin Santana’s slider usage rate is the end all be all towards his success would be foolish. There are many factors at play when it comes to the success that he will have in a given season, but for Santana, it appears that his slider usage rate is one of the more important individual factors when it comes to determining his success. So, what can the Twins take away from this? Obviously, Santana can’t begin to just throw his slider on every pitch, as opposing hitters will adjust, and make his slider less effective. There is also a point where if Santana throws too many sliders, it will wear on his arm. I think the best approach would be to try and increase his slider usage by a couple percentage points to start the season and see what kind of effect this has on Santana’s performance.

Well in the post you can see that the prediction would be that he would sign for somewhere between $19M-$21M annually. So a 5 year extension, would approach $100M. If you think that Dozier doesn't have any more value than Ben Zobrist had in 2016, then I think you might be undervaluing Brian Dozier a bit. Not only is Dozier 4 years younger than Zobrist was at the time, but Zobrist was also coming off a season where he was starting to show signs of his decline, while Dozier has been a very consistent performer. Yes, I too would love to sign Dozier to the same deal Zobrist got, but the truth is Dozier is far more valuable now, and will be a year from now as a free agent, than Zobrist was in 2016, at age 35. Also, just a little proof that my numbers are not that far off. Last night, Lorenzo Cain signed a 5 year, $80M contract. Not only is Cain the same age now, that Dozier will be next offseason (32), but he has also hasn't been as good of a player as Dozier over the past couple of seasons. Couple that with the fact that he will be playing a corner outfield position which brings his value down even more when compared to Dozier, who plays a premium defensive position.

There is no question that Brian Dozier has been the best player on the Minnesota Twins for the past four seasons. Over that stretch, Dozier’s 18.8 fWAR ranks 18th in Major League Baseball, and is 2nd among second basemen. His early success lead the Twins front office to give him a 4-year, $20MM deal to buy out his arbitration eligible years. This has proved to be an extremely team friendly deal, but now that the Twins are a team that is finally back in playoff contention, they just might be in danger of losing their best player. Dozier has expressed interest in returning to the Twins after 2018, but it doesn’t appear that the Twins have approached him yet this offseason about a potential extension. So, the question to ask is, should they? Probably the most important factor in this decision will be cost. How much money will they need to spend, and how many years will they need to offer in order to entice Dozier away from entering free agency next offseason. Dozier has drastically increased his market value after back-to-back career years. This means that the Twins won’t be able to sign him for pennies on the dollar this time around. When trying to estimate the contract that Dozier’s agent will be asking for, the best place to start is by looking at contracts that other elite level second basemen have gotten in recent years. The three players that make the most sense to look at are Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist. Here are the details of their contracts. For a little comparison, Brian Dozier will be entering his age 31 season this year, and had a 5.0 fWAR last season, and a 14.2 fWAR over the previous three. Given these factors, and adding in a couple years of baseball inflation, we can assume that Dozier will get a contract somewhere in between the Cano and Zobrist contracts. In terms of years, I would expect that the it will be a lot closer to the four years Zobrist got, than the ten years Cano received. It would most likely be a deal that would extend either four or five seasons past Dozier’s current contract. Even though it has been four years since Robinson Cano signed his deal, I do not see Dozier receiving an offer that approaches Cano’s in terms of Average Annual Value, as Cano was an MVP level player for five seasons before signing his contract with the Mariners. Given this, I am predicting that Dozier will sign for somewhere in the $19M-$21M per year range. Now that we have a ballpark idea of what it might take to sign Brian Dozier to an extension, we now must figure out if it would make sense for the Twins to sign him to that extension. As with most big decisions, it is often works well to look at the pros and cons of the decision, so that is what we will do. Pros The first pro to extending Dozier, is it will secure the Twins organizational depth in the middle infield. The reason that this is important is two-fold. While players like Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier and even Jorge Polanco all have a lot of potential, they still have big question marks attached to them. For a team like the Twins, who is ready to compete now, having a player like Dozier, who has a much higher floor over the next few seasons will be very important. The other reason why Dozier securing depth in the middle infield is important is, it gives the front office more flexibility with their personal decisions. With second base taken care of for the foreseeable future, they can be more aggressive with their prospects in the trade market for a big time starting pitcher, like Chris Archer. Also, with the future of third base in doubt after 2018, the Twins could also use their depth in the middle infield to fill this hole, potentially with Dozier sliding over to third himself. Another benefit of keeping Dozier around is his leadership presence in the clubhouse. With an inexperienced team like the Twins, having veteran leader for the young players is paramount. The final benefit of extending Dozier now is the Twins will have exclusive negotiating rights with him. If the Twins want to bring Dozier back, their best bet might be by not exposing him to the other 29 teams in free agency. Cons Without question, the biggest con in extending Dozier would be the financial commitment the Twins would have to make to him. If the Twins were to sign him, the total value of the contract would be roughly in the $100MM range. If the Twins were to make that investment it would take away from their ability to go out and sign a top tier starting pitcher that is of desperate need. Another potential problem with locking up that much money in one player is, if they suffer an injury, or their game were to suddenly go away, the Twins would be stuck with a lot of dead money on their books. With Dozier now on the wrong side of 30, both of those are possibilities, despite his track record of health and consistent performance. A final motive to consider is baring an awful 2018 for Dozier, the Twins will make him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. So even if he does sign with a different organization, the Twins will receive a draft pick between Rounds 1 and 2 in the 2019 Draft as compensation. With all things considered, it is a bit surprising that the Twins haven’t at least approached Dozier or his agent about an extension this winter. Even if they are leaning towards not bringing him back, it would still be worth getting the conversation started to see what Dozier wants. I am interested to see what everyone has to say on this. Do you think that the Twins should offer Brian Dozier a contract extension, or should they let him play just play out this season and see where the chips fall in free agency?

Why would you have Gonsalves or Romero start the year at MLB? Gonsalves has just 4 AAA starts, and Romero has 0. I think that would be a bad idea, and is setting them up for what happened to Berrios in 2016. Give them more time in the minors, were they can actually focus on improving, as opposed to the majors where the only focus is winning. Then come mid-season, if they are developing well at AAA bring them up.

Because it has been proven time and time again that depth in the pitching rotation is a great thing. It can be almost guaranteed that 1 or 2 of their starters will miss a considerable amount of time this season with an injury, because well they are pitchers and pitchers get hurt a lot. When that happens, it will be nice to not be forced into calling up Gonsalves or Romero to fill those innings if the front offices thinks they could use more time in AAA to develop. Trust me there will be plenty of innings to go around.

The Twins have made a concerted effort this offseason to improve their pitching staff with additions of Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Addison Reed and Michael Pineda. However, it doesn’t appear that any of those moves will be a limiting factor as the Twins look to make further additions. Earlier this week, Derek Falvey said that “he doesn’t believe the Twins have any major budget constraints to sign a much-needed starter.” This is good news for Twins fans that are hoping that the Twins will sign Yu Darvish, but it also means that they are considering other options to bolster their pitching staff as well. One of the potential options that the Twins are showing interest in is 31-year-old Wade Miley. Wade Miley isn’t the sexiest name out there on the starting pitcher market, but he could be a value grab for the Twins as they look to add depth to their rotation. One thing the Twins will be able to count on in Miley is his durability, as he has averaged 186 innings per season over the last six years. Miley has a respectable 4.38 ERA, and 3.95 xFIP, over his career, though he has been suspect of late with a 5.48 ERA over the past two seasons. This will make Miley a cheap signing, that the Twins could take a flyer on. When digging into Miley’s peripheral numbers, it appears that he is poised for a bounce back season in 2018. Despite the 5.48 ERA in 2016 and 2017 combined, Miley had an xFIP that was more than a full run lower at 4.34. This is due in large part to Miley’s HR/FB jumping to 16.2% and 19.4% in the last two years respectively. This is up from the 10.6% HR/FB that Miley had averaged in his career before 2016. A lot of this can be explained by the fact that Miley spent part of 2016, and all of 2017 as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, who play in notoriously hitter friendly Camden Yards. If you put Miley in a more pitcher friendly park in 2018, his HR/FB ratio will almost surely go down, and along with it his ERA. One area of concern for Miley entering 2018 is his walk rate. In 2017, Miley saw his BB/9 balloon from his 2.79 career average, all the way up to 5.32. This was by far the highest of any full time starting pitcher in 2017, as the next highest walk rate from a pitcher that threw at least 150 innings was Chad Kuhl’s 4.12 BB/9. This screams that this number is, in large part, a product of the random variation that comes from a sample size of just one season. It is very reasonable to assume that Miley’s walk rate might regress back closer to his career norms in 2018. It could also be helpful for Miley to get away from the Orioles nightmare pitching situation (Orioles starters had a 5.70 ERA in 2017, the worst of any team since the 2012 Rockies). If the Twins do find themselves in a situation where they are unable to sign one of the more prolific starters that are still available in free agency, Wade Miley might just be an okay option for the Twins to either fall back on, or complement a different move with. Given the current state of the free agent market, and the fact that the Orioles decided to pay the $500K to buyout their $12MM team option for Miley in 2018, the Twins should be able to sign Miley to a one-year deal, in the $4M - $7M per year range.

Sorry, that should have been $172M, which is approximately where their payroll sits for luxury-tax purposes. Their projected payroll for 2018 as of now is $162M, which is different than their luxury-tax payroll, because its not based on AAV, its just what are they paying their players this season. I just forgot to go back and change that part of the post.

I see your point, but at the same time overall payroll is still going up throughout the league (except in Miami). This isn't as much of an issue of players not getting as much money, as much as it is teams realizing that they are better suited to disperse their assets all throughout their team, and not just on 1 or 2 players. As I touched on, the big thing that will cause Darvish from getting his full open market rate is the luxury-tax, because its preventing the Yankees and Dodgers from spending the money that they otherwise might have to get him. The problem with that for the MLBPA is they agreed to it in the collective bargaining agreement, so they might not have much of a case.

Haha, good catch. I posted this during the Vikings game, so I skimmed on the proofreading.

This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look. In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers. Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish. Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish. So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins. Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish. Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012. This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta. With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.

I have actually been looking into Joe Biagini as a potential breakout player in 2018. I think a large part of what lead to Biagini's 5.34 ERA in 2017 was his 61.5 LOB % and his 15.2 HR/FB %. These numbers were much worse than the 71-73 LOB % and 4-6 HR/FB % rates that he had from 2014-2016. While I don't necessarily expect that these numbers will go all the way back to his 2014-2016 numbers, I do see them regressing back to more of Joe Biagini's norms in 2018 thus making him a better pitcher.

There could be an argument for Buxton as the most valuable defensive player in the league, but I still think that title belongs to Andrelton Simmons. Buxton has 31 defensive runs saved in his career, Simmons has 32 in 2017 alone. I get that’s not an end all be all, but let’s give Buxton a few more years before he takes that title away from one of the best defensive players who has ever lived who is still in his prime.

John, I would be interested in doing some writing for Twins Daily. I have some interesting ideas for articles that I would like to write that I think would be interesting for the Twins Daily audience. Please let me know how we can get in touch.