Andrew Thares

A few stats I would recommend looking into are Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) on Fangraphs and dWAR on Baseball Reference. DRS is a stat that takes everything a player does defensively into account and then judges them against every other player at that position. The stat uses 0 runs saved as a baseline for an average defender at that position. So for example Joe Mauer had a DRS of 7 in 2017, which means he was worth 7 more runs defensively than the average first baseman last season. Additionally, dWAR is a good stat that you can look into. This stat is built on the same premise as DRS where it takes everything a player does defensively into account and gives it a value. However, dWAR is built on a wins model instead of a runs model. This is pretty easy to convert, as 1 win, is roughly equivalent to 10 runs. Another difference between the two is dWAR is positionally adjusted, which means there is a penalty for playing easy positions like first, while a bonus for playing tough positions like short. Usually if I am comparing two players that play the same position I will use DRS, but if I am looking at two players who play different positions, or guys that play multiple positions I prefer dWAR.

I think the big difference was some mechanical changes that he made between the 2016 and 2017 season. Had he spent the year in AAA he may have been able to make those changes in season as opposed to waiting for the offseason. Jeff Sullivan wrote a great article about this last May. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-true-arrival-of-jose-berrios/

Morrison is also going to be in just his age 30 season this year. In 2019, Joe will be 36.

I think we are talking about different levels of development. Do pitchers need to develop their ability to get MLB hitters out once they get there, yes. But that goes hand in hand with the MLB teams focus of winning because the pitchers sole focus is still on getting guys out. The development I am talking about is working on pitches, and other mechanical things. It is a lot easier to focus on that in AAA. Once a guy like Romero (who still hasn't pitched in AAA) has those things more ironed out, then he can come up to the MLB level and work on the final stage of development.

Joe would be eligible for a qualifying offer, but there is no way the Twins would extend him one at the one-year and $18 million + that it is going to be next year.

Perhaps my favorite part of the Odorizzi and Lynn additions is it gives the Twins the flexibility not to force Romero or Gonsalves to the bigs early, like was done with Berrios. In AAA they can focus on development, so they can work on things they need to work on, and their innings pitched is easier to control. If they are in the Majors the focus shifts to winning, at the expense of development.

There is no question that Joe Mauer is one of the greatest Minnesota Twins to ever put on the uniform, and that he will one day see his number retired along with former Twins greats like Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew. Despite this, Mauer’s future as a player with the Twins after 2018 seems to be in question.Entering 2019, Mauer will be going into his age 36 season with what will at best be a slightly above average bat and good defense. The problem is he is limited to playing first base, and there are plenty of quality bats at first to go around. Additionally, first base is a position that is very limited in the upside a quality defensive player can bring. This will make it very easy for "Falvine" to replace Mauer with a quality player after his contract expires. I am sure most Twins fans, myself included, would like to see Joe Mauer play out the rest of his career in a Twins uniform. So, the question is, what will it take for that to happen? Joe Mauer Repeats His 2017 Season Mauer’s turnaround last season was a big part of the Twins improved level of play. A big reason for his success was his strikeout rate falling to 13.9%, the lowest it has been since 2012. Mauer also had by far his best defensive season since moving to first base. This resulted in a 2.3 fWAR season from the one-time MVP, twice as much as he put up in 2015 and 2016 combined. If Mauer can repeat his success again in 2018, he will still be a viable MLB option a first going into 2019. However, if he shows some regression, and returns to his previous form, it would be tough for Joe to even get an MLB contract next winter. Logan Morrison’s Option Doesn’t Get Picked Up Perhaps the surprise of the Twins offseason was inking Logan Morrison to a one year and $6.5 million contract, with a vesting option for a second year if he reaches 500 plate appearances this season. If this option gets picked up, it will take up one of the two potential spots that Joe Mauer could fill as a member of the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Additionally, bringing back Mauer to team up with Morrison as the first base/DH duo would still leave the Twins with the double lefty problem that currently exists. The front office was willing to make this work given the fact that Morrison is otherwise a steal at $6.5 million. Going into next offseason, there might be a few right-handed hitting options at first that might be more appealing to the Twins. Brent Rooker Isn’t MLB Ready for The Start of 2019 Even though Brent Rooker was drafted as an outfielder and did see roughly 75% of his playing time last season in left, many believe that he will eventually break through with the Twins as either a first baseman or a designated hitter. The biggest reasons for this are his large 6’3” frame profiling better at first along with the crowded young outfield that the Twins already possess. If Rooker continues to tear up minor league pitching, the 23-year-old will fly up through the Twins system and could even push for a spot in 2018. Rooker also brings the element of a right-handed power bat that the Twins will need in 2019, especially if they lose Brian Dozier to free agency. Miguel Sano Can Stay at Third Base One of the biggest question marks that the Twins need to answer this season is the long-term ability for Miguel Sano to stay at third base. If Sano can somehow play an adequate third base (given both the titanium rod in his leg and the lack of ability he has shown in the past) it would be a near miracle. If Sano shows that he will be unable to stick at third, the most logical move would be to either first base or DH. This would create an even bigger logjam for Mauer to remain with the team given that Sano is under team control through at least the 2021 season. Joe Mauer Takes a Hometown Discount There is no question that the St. Paul native, who has known only one city for his growing up years and entire major league life, would love to finish out his career in Minnesota. In fact, it is hard to think of many players in the history of major league baseball who had more of a reason to take a hometown discount than Joe Mauer. That being said, I am not Joe Mauer, so therefore I can not definitively say whether or not he will be willing to take a hometown discount, and if so how much of one. That will be something that Joe will need to consider before he decides on his future next winter. As great as it would be for Joe Mauer to play out his career in Minnesota, it is hard to see that happening without at least three or four of these things happening. Given that the Twins would love to see Morrison play well enough to earn his option for 2019, and for Rooker to force their hand as soon as possible, it will be a catch-22 for Twins fans who wish for Mauer to stay. Hopefully, if 2018 is Joe’s last with the Twins, it will be because of how Morrison and Rooker play this season, and not because of how he plays. Click here to view the article

I think this is a possibility, but if Rooker can hit at the MLB level like he has the ability to, I think he is a bat you need to have in the lineup everyday. Most likely that means the Twins will have to either move on from Mauer or trade either Kepler or Rosario if Rooker can play a corner outfield position.

No, in the last paragraph of the post I said that at least three or four of the five would need to happen.

There is no question that Joe Mauer is one of the greatest Minnesota Twins to ever put on the uniform, and that he will one day see his number retired along with former Twins greats like Kirby Puckett and Rod Carew. Despite this, Mauer’s future as a player with the Twins after 2018 seems to be in question. Entering 2019, Mauer will be going into his age 36 season with what will at best be a slightly above average bat and good defense. The problem is he is limited to playing first base, and there are plenty of quality bats at first to go around. Additionally, first base is a position that is very limited in the upside a quality defensive player can bring. This will make it very easy for "Falvine" to replace Mauer with a quality player after his contract expires. I am sure most Twins fans, myself included, would like to see Joe Mauer play out the rest of his career in a Twins uniform. So, the question is, what will it take for that to happen? Joe Mauer Repeats His 2017 Season Mauer’s turnaround last season was a big part of the Twins improved level of play. A big reason for his success was his strikeout rate falling to 13.9%, the lowest it has been since 2012. Mauer also had by far his best defensive season since moving to first base. This resulted in a 2.3 fWAR season from the one-time MVP, twice as much as he put up in 2015 and 2016 combined. If Mauer can repeat his success again in 2018, he will still be a viable MLB option a first going into 2019. However, if he shows some regression, and returns to his previous form, it would be tough for Joe to even get an MLB contract next winter. Logan Morrison’s Option Doesn’t Get Picked Up Perhaps the surprise of the Twins offseason was inking Logan Morrison to a one year and $6.5 million contract, with a vesting option for a second year if he reaches 500 plate appearances this season. If this option gets picked up, it will take up one of the two potential spots that Joe Mauer could fill as a member of the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Additionally, bringing back Mauer to team up with Morrison as the first base/DH duo would still leave the Twins with the double lefty problem that currently exists. The front office was willing to make this work given the fact that Morrison is otherwise a steal at $6.5 million. Going into next offseason, there might be a few right-handed hitting options at first that might be more appealing to the Twins. Brent Rooker Isn’t MLB Ready for The Start of 2019 Even though Brent Rooker was drafted as an outfielder and did see roughly 75% of his playing time last season in left, many believe that he will eventually breakthrough with the Twins as either a first baseman or a designated hitter. The biggest reasons for this are his large 6’3” frame profiling better at first along with the crowed young outfield that the Twins already possess. If Rooker continues to tear up minor league pitching, the 23-year-old will fly up through the Twins system and could even push for a spot in 2018. Rooker also brings the element of a right-handed power bat that the Twins will need in 2019, especially if they lose Brian Dozier to free agency. Miguel Sano Can Stay at Third Base One of the biggest question marks that the Twins need to answer this season is the long-term ability for Miguel Sano to stay at third base. If Sano can somehow play an adequate third base (given both the titanium rod in his leg and the lack of ability he has shown in the past) it would be a near miracle. If Sano shows that he will be unable to stick at third, the most logical move would be to either first base or DH. This would create an even bigger log jam for Mauer to remain with the team given that Sano is under team control through at least the 2021 season. Joe Mauer Takes a Hometown Discount There is no question that the St. Paul native, who has only known one city for his whole life, would love to finish out his career in Minnesota. In fact, it is hard to think of many players in the history of Major League Baseball that had more of a reason to take a hometown discount than Joe Mauer. That being said, I am not Joe Mauer, so therefore I can definitively say whether or not he will be willing to take a hometown discount, and if so how much of one. That will be something that Joe will need to consider before he decides on his future next winter. As great as it would be for Joe Mauer to play out his career in Minnesota, it is hard to see that happening without at least three or four of these things happening. Given that the Twins would love to see Morrison play well enough to earn his option for 2019, and for Rooker to force their hand as soon as possible, it will be a catch 22 for Twins fans who wish for Mauer to stay. Hopefully, if 2018 is Joe’s last with the Twins, it will be because of how Morrison and Rooker play this season, and not because of how he plays.

It's starting to sound like for the Twins to land one of top free agent pitchers still available, the player would need to accept a deal for less value than the qualifying offers he rejected. Believe it or not, this move is actually not unprecedented. Let’s take a look back at the times that this has happened.The qualifying offer came into existence at the start of the 2012-13 offseason. Its purpose was to grant compensation, in the form of a draft pick, to MLB teams that lost a key player in free agency. Since its inception, 73 players have been extended a qualifying offer and only five have accepted the deal. The primary reason for this being that teams try to avoid extending a player a qualifying offer if they think it will be accepted. Among those players who rejected a qualifying offer this winter are Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. At the onset of the offseason, it seemed like a no-brainer that these players would receive deals that would easily exceed that of the qualifying offer. However, as the season draws near, there is a chance that one of these players may accept a one-year deal for potentially less than the $17.4M that they each turned down, in an opportunity to prove himself again and re-enter the market again next winter. Let's take a look back at the history of players who accepted deals at a lesser value than the qualifying offers they originally rejected. Nelson Cruz – 2013 Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (TEX) Signed For: one-year, $8M (BAL) Nelson Cruz was a dominant offensive threat for the Texas Rangers in his time there. During his first three seasons in Texas, 2008-10, he collected 9.7 fWAR in just 267 games, a 5.9 fWAR pace per 162 games played. However, this production fell off in his final three years with the team, where he had a mere 3.7 fWAR over 392 games, a 1.5 fWAR pace per 162 games played. Still, Cruz’s reputation preceded him, and caused him to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers. When he hit free agency, what MLB teams saw was a three year track record of underwhelming success from a one-dimensional player. This gave the Orioles ad opportunity to take a flyer on Cruz. The move could not have panned out better for them, as Cruz hit for a .271/.333/.525 slash line, along with an MLB leading 40 home runs. Stephen Drew – 2013 Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (BOS) Signed For: one-year, $10M (BOS) Stephen Drew was coming off of a career year in 2013, where he produced as an above average bat along with league-average defense at shortstop. Unlike today, players with those two skills were few and far between just five years ago. Despite this, MLB teams saw right through the aging shortstop, who had a very inconsistent career up to that point. Drew’s offense in 2013 was carried largely on the weight of his .320 BABIP, a full 30 points higher than his career average. Drew didn’t end up signing with a team until May of the following season, where he re-signed with the Red Sox for $4M less than the offer that he rejected from them just six months earlier. It turns out that MLB GMs were right to be skeptical of Stephen Drew, as he has been nothing more than a replacement level player in the four years since. Kendrys Morales – 2013 Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (SEA) Signed For: one-year, $12M (MIN) The Twins’ signing of Kendrys Morales in June of 2014 was maybe the most unique of all these signings. The reason for this being that Morales didn’t sign with the Twins until June of 2014, after the First Year Player Draft. This meant that even though Morales rejected his qualifying offer, the Twins didn’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him. That was perhaps the only good take away from the Kendrys Morales signing, as he slashed a mere .234/.259/.325 with just one home run over 39 games in a Twins uniform. He was then dealt back to the Mariners before the trade deadline in exchange for Stephen Pryor, a minor league pitcher who has been out of baseball since the Twins released him after the 2015 season. Ian Desmond – 2015 Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (WAS) Signed For: one-year, $8M (TEX) Ian Desmond’s career got off to a good start with the Washington Nationals. During his time there, Desmond was a shortstop mostly known for his bat, though he still provided manageable defense at short. When Desmond hit free agency, however, he was coming off of a down season offensively (83 wRC+), and there were questions about his ability to stay at short. Desmond wound up moving to the outfield, and as a result his value plummeted. Much like Nelson Cruz, signing a one-year deal paid off well for Desmond, as he had a bounce back season with the Rangers, hitting for a 106 wRC+ on his way to a 3.3 fWAR season. Dexter Fowler – 2015 Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (CHC) Signed For: one-year, $13M (CHC) The drama of where Dexter Fowler would sign led all the way up to the start of spring training, where it appeared as though he had a deal locked up with Baltimore, before reversing course and re-signing with the Cubs. Fowler is yet another player on this list who benefited greatly from signing a one-year bounce back deal. That 2016 was undoubtedly the best season of Fowler’s career, both offensively and defensively. Not only did he have a career high .367 wOBA, but it was also the only season in his career when his defense wasn’t terrible in center. For a player whose DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) usually sits somewhere between -10 and -20, the +1 number that he posted in 2016 was a welcome surprise for the Cubs. Hisashi Iwakuma – 2015 Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (SEA) Signed For: one-year, $12M (SEA) Hisashi Iwakuma, the first and only pitcher on this list, re-signed with the Seattle Mariners in December of 2015, just over a month after he rejected a qualifying offer from the team. The deal did include two vesting options, and had the potential to reach as high as $39M with incentives. Iwakuma was able to hit the first vesting option, along with an incentive bonus, so the deal ending up being for two-years and $27.5M. It was still a very team-friendly deal, as the vesting options took most of the risk out of the contract. Only $12M was guaranteed. Howie Kendrick – 2015 Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (LAD) Signed For: two-years, $20M (LAD) The final player on this list is also the only player who actually signed a deal with more guaranteed money than the qualifying offer that he rejected. The reason I'm including Howie Kendrick on this list is the one-year, $15.8M deal he rejected is a much better offer than the two-year, $20M deal he ultimately accepted. Kendrick ended up getting traded twice during the course of his two-year contract. First from the Dodger to the Phillies, and then from the Phillies to the Nationals. After having an okay year in 2016, Kendrick had a strong performance in 2017, putting up 1.6 fWAR despite only playing 91 games due to injury. As you can see, signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer to a one-year deal is well within the realm of possibilities. This might be an especially attractive idea for pitchers with injury concerns, such as Lynn and Cobb. They may be struggling to get quality long-term offers right now, given question marks around them, but another year of health and production could dramatically change their market if they're willing to accept a one-year offer. Click here to view the article

The history of the qualifying offer in Major League Baseball is short, as it only came into existence at the start of the 2012-2013 offseason. The purpose of the qualifying offer was to grant compensation, in the form of a draft pick, to MLB teams that lost a key player in free agency. Since its inception, 73 players have been extended a qualifying offer, and of those 73 players, only five of them have accepted the deal, none of which were from this offseason. The primary reason for this being that teams try to avoid extending a player a qualifying offer if they think it will be accepted. Among those players who rejected a qualifying offer this winter are Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. At the onset of the offseason, it seemed like a no brainer that these players would receive deals that would easily exceed that of the qualifying offer. However, as the season draws near, there is a chance that one of these players may accept a 1-year deal for potentially less than the $17.4M that they turned down, in an opportunity to prove themselves again and reenter the market again next winter. If the Twins were to get back into the chase for one of these pitchers, it would probably only be if they took a deal for less value than the qualifying offer. Believe it or not, this move is actually not unprecedented. So, let’s take a look back at the times that this has happened. Nelson Cruz – 2013 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (TEX) Signed For: 1-year, $8M (BAL) Nelson Cruz was a dominate offensive threat for the Texas Rangers in his time there. During his first three seasons in Texas, 2008-2010, he collected 9.7 fWAR in just 267 games played, a 5.9 fWAR pace per 162 games played. However, this production fell off in his final three years with the team, where he had a mere 3.7 fWAR over 392 games played, a 1.5 fWAR pace per 162 games played. Still, Cruz’s reputation proceeded itself, and caused him to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers. However, when he hit free agency, what MLB teams saw was a three year track record of underwhelming success from a one dimensional player. This gave the Orioles and opportunity to take a flyer on Cruz. The move could not have panned out better for them, as Cruz hit for a .271/.333/.525 slash line, along with an MLB leading 40 home runs. Stephen Drew – 2013 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (BOS) Signed For: 1-year, $10M (BOS) Stephen Drew was coming off of a career year in 2013, where he produced as an above average bat, along with league average defense at shortstop. Unlike today, those to skills were few and far between just five years ago. Despite this, MLB teams saw right through the aging shortstop, who had a very inconsistent career up to that point. Drew’s offense in 2013 was carried largely on the weight of his .320 BABIP, a full 30 points higher than his career average. Drew didn’t end up signing with a team until May of the following season, where he resigned with the Red Sox for $4M less than the offer that he rejected from them just six months earlier. It turns out that MLB GMs were right to be skeptical of Stephen Drew, as he has been nothing more than a replacement level player in the four years since. Kendrys Morales – 2013 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (SEA) Signed For: 1-year, $12M (MIN) The Twins’ signing of Kendrys Morales in June of 2014 was maybe the most unique of all these signings. The reason for this being that Morales didn’t sign with the Twins until June of 2014, after the First Year Player Draft. This meant that even though Morales rejected his qualifying offer, the Twins didn’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him. That was perhaps the only good take away from the Kendrys Morales signing, as he slashed a mere .234/.259/.325 with just one home run over 39 games in a Twins uniform. He was then dealt back to the Mariners before the trade deadline in exchange for Stephen Pryor, a minor league pitcher that has been out of baseball since the Twins released him after the 2015 season. Ian Desmond – 2015 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (WAS) Signed For: 1-year, $8M (TEX) Ian Desmond’s career got off to a good start with the Washington Nationals. In Washington, Desmond was a shortstop that was mostly known for his bat, though he still provided manageable defense at short. However, when Desmond hit free agency, he was coming off of a down season offensively (83 wRC+), and there were questions about his ability to stay at short. Ian Desmond wound up making the move to the outfield, and as a result his value plummeted. Much like Nelson Cruz, signing a 1-year deal paid off well for Desmond, as he had a bounce back season with the Rangers, hitting for a 106 wRC+ on his way to a 3.3 fWAR season. Dexter Fowler – 2015 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (CHC) Signed For: 1-year, $13M (CHC) The drama of where Dexter Fowler would sign lead all the way up to the start of spring training, where it appeared as though he had a deal locked up with Baltimore, before reversing course and resigning with the Cubs. Fowler is yet another player on this list who benefited greatly from signing a 1-year bounce back deal. 2016 was undoubtedly the best season of Fowler’s career, both offensively and defensively. Not only did he have a career high .367 wOBA, but it was also the only season in his career when his defense wasn’t terrible in center. For a player whose DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) usually sits somewhere between -10 and -20, the +1 number that he posted in 2016 was a welcome surprise for the Cubs. Hisahi Iwakuma – 2015 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (SEA) Signed For: 1-year, $12M (SEA) Hisahi Iwakuma, the first and only pitcher on this list, resigned with the Seattle Mariners in December of 2015, just over a month after he rejected a qualifying offer from the team. The deal did include two vesting options, and had the potential to reach as high as $39M with incentives. Iwakuma was able to hit the first vesting option, along with an incentive bonus, so the deal ending up being for 2-years and $27.5M. Even though the deal ending up reaching that mark, it was still a very team friendly deal as the vesting options took most of the risk out of the contract, as only $12M was guaranteed. Howie Kendrick – 2015 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (LAD) Signed For: 2-years, $20M (LAD) The final player on this list is also the only player that actually signed a deal with more guaranteed money than the qualifying offer that he rejected. This reason I am including Howie Kendrick on this list is the 1-year, $15.8M deal he rejected is a much better offer than the 2-year, $20M deal he ultimately accepted. Howie Kendrick ended up getting traded twice during the course of his 2-year contract. First from the Dodger to the Phillies, and then from the Phillies to the Nationals. After having an okay year in 2016, Kendrick had a strong performance in 2017, putting up 1.6 fWAR despite only playing 91 games due to injury. As you can see, a player that rejected a qualifying offer actually signing a 1-year deal to try and test their luck in the following offseason is well within the realm of possibilities. For pitchers like Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, this might not be a bad idea for them, if they can’t get a quality long-term offer, since there are many question marks around them, being just a year removed from Tommy John surgery.

Good read guys! Here is my view on the whole Ace vs No Ace thing. I believe that having an option to shutdown the opposing team for an extended number of innings in a postseason game is critical. Whether that comes from an Ace in the rotation, or through a stable of dominate relief pitchers, that option is needed somewhere. While this doesn't guarantee success in the playoffs, what it does is it puts your team on more of a level playing field with the other teams in the playoffs. No matter who the Twins play in a playoff series, they are all but guaranteed to have an option in their pitching staff where they can shut the Twins offense down during at least two games in a series. If the Twins don't have the ability to do the same to the opposing team's offense, then they are at a huge disadvantage going into the series.

Sorting by spin rate on the baseball savant website is actually pretty simple. Once on the website go to Statcast Search. On that page in the Pitch Type category filter by the fastballs; under Position select RP; under Min # of Results select 100; under Sort By select Avg. Spin Rate. This should give you the list that you are looking for.

After the addition of Logan Morrison over the weekend, it left many in Twins Territory wondering how would he fit into the lineup. Including the Twins Daily twitter account. This question drew a number of different responses from Twins fans, so I decided to dive into the numbers and construct what I believe to be the ideal Twins lineup. Just as it is worded in the tweet, I took this approach from the perspective that Sano will be able to play third base this season. I also see the lineup being constructed very differently depending on if the Twins are facing a righty or a lefty, so I created a lineup for both. So, let’s get into it. Against Right-Handed Starters 1st Joe Mauer 1B: Mauer is the ideal fit for the Twins leadoff position. His 0.384 OBP in 2017, ranked 5th among all qualified American League hitters. This ability to get on base is key for the leadoff role, as it gives the heart of the order a base-runner to drive in. 2nd Brian Dozier 2B: Dozier has spent the last season and a half in the leadoff spot for the Twins. Over that time, Dozier has hit 59 home runs. Unfortunately, just 25% of those home runs have been with at least one runner on base. By comparison the MLB average, over that time, is 41%. The biggest reason for this being that the leadoff hitter has the highest percentage of their plate appearances coming with nobody on-base, and by a wide margin at that. 3rd Logan Morrison DH: Last season Logan Morrison mashed righties to the tune of a .251/.365/.548 slash line, along with 32 home runs. Morrison’s 137 wRC+ against righties would have been the best mark on the Twins in 2017. 4th Miguel Sano 3B: I previously sited the fact that leadoff hitters have the smallest percentage of their plate appearances coming with runners on-base as the reason why the Twins should take Dozier out of the leadoff role. Well that same reasoning holds true as to why Sano fits perfect as the Twins clean-up hitter. Year in and year out, the 4th hitter in the lineup sees a higher percent of their plate appearances coming with runners on base than any other spot in the order. Last year that number stood at 48.6%. 5th Eddie Rosario LF: 2017 was a real breakout season for Eddie Rosario at the plate. Rosario saw much of that production come against right-handed pitchers, as his 135 wRC+ against them lead the team. 6th Max Kepler RF: Kepler’s struggles against lefties last season were well documented. However, Kepler excels against righties, and last year gathered a .272/.343/.484 slash line against them. Kepler also collected 47 of his 53 extra-base-hits in 2017 off of right-handed pitchers. 7th Jorge Polanco SS: Polanco really turned his offensive production around in the last two months of the season. Over that time Polanco collected a .393 wOBA against righties, the 21st highest mark in Major League Baseball (minimum 150 plate-appearances). 8th Jason Castro C: As the left-handed hitting member of the Twins catching duo, Castro will probably get a majority of the starts against right-handed starting pitchers. Castro is a solid hitting threat, and can put up numbers that most teams would take from a catcher hitting in the 8th spot in the order. 9th Byron Buxton CF: Even though Buxton made great strides at the end of last season, much of that production came against left-handed pitching. With the strength that the rest of the lineup possess against righties, Buxton will really help the Twins turn their lineup back over hitting 9th. The Twins might have one of the best lineups against right-handed pitchers in all of baseball. This is a great situation to be in given that a large majority of their games will come against right-handed starters, especially in the AL Central. Against Left-Handed Starters 1st Byron Buxton CF: Despite his rough start to the season, Buxton still finished with the Twins’ 3rd highest wOBA against lefties in 2017. His eye at the plate against left-handed pitchers is very strong, as he produced a 0.365 OBP against them last season. 2nd Joe Mauer 1B: As you may have noticed, I really like the idea of Joe Mauer hitting right behind Byron Buxton. The reason for this being that the best type of hitter to place behind a premier base stealing threat is a high-contact singles hitter, as it maximizes the benefit of stealing a base to get into scoring position. Additional, batting Mauer 2nd gives the Twins two strong on-base threats ahead of Dozier and Sano, who are two of the best right-handed power hitters in the league. 3rd Brian Dozier 2B: Normally you would like to see the lineup’s best hitter in the 2-hole. However, given the way the Twins lineup is constructed against lefties, I think their best chance to score runs is trying to get as many people as they can on-base in front of Dozier, so he can make the most of all the power that he has against them. 4th Miguel Sano 3B: I don’t really know what else there is to say, except Sano is just the ideal clean-up hitter for the Twins. Sano also provides great protection hitting right behind Dozier. 5th Logan Morrison DH: Much has been made about Morrison’s scorching numbers against right-handed pitchers in 2017. So, the fact that Morrison was still a solid hitter against lefties in 2017 might surprise you. In fact, his 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers would have been the 4th best mark by a Twin with at least 75 plate-appearances against a lefty last season. 6th Jorge Polanco SS: Perhaps the best part of Polanco’s late season turnaround was the fact that he was very productive from both sides of the plate. With his ability to be an all-around hitter as both a righty and a lefty, he could really help fill a hole in the Twins lineup against lefties. 7th Mitch Garver C: Garver posted strong numbers in AAA Rochester last season, and earned a call-up to the bigs at the end of the year. Garver’s right-handed bat could bring some much needed pop against lefties. If he shows that he can produce at the Major League level, Garver might see himself move up a few spots in the order. 8th Eddie Rosario LF: With all of the production that Rosario had against righties last season, those numbers didn’t cross over much to lefties, as he produced a mere .682 OPS against them. The most troubling part is the fact that he drew just 5 walks in 183 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. 9th Robbie Grossman/Zach Granite RF: Baring an injury to either Buxton, Rosario or Kepler, I do not see both Robbie Grossman and Zach Granite on the MLB roster this season. With that being said, I see the 9th spot in the order against lefties going to whichever player makes the team. Clearly the Twins lineup against left-handed pitchers isn’t nearly as strong as it is against righties. Given that realization, I think the lineup against left-handed starters will be a lot more interchangeable. I see this as a perfect opportunity to give some of the regulars a day off, and plug in some of the other bench pieces. I’m sure there are many of you who probably disagree with the way that I constructed these lineups. I would love to hear any changes that you would make to them, and your reasoning behind it.

Well if they are, Aaron Boone sure doesn't this so. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/aaron-boone-lance-lynn-alex-cobb-arent-really-in-play-for-yankees.html

I don't think this is true. The deal is for 1, maybe 2 years. None of the main hitting prospects seem all that poised to fill a role with the big club this season, so this signing makes perfect sense to add to a team that is ready to compete now.

Looks like they just signed him to a 1-year, $6.5M with a vest option for $10M in a 2nd year. I think that is a pretty good signing.

Personally, I think a LoMo signing would be a great replacement for Kennys Vargas if Falvine is ready to give up on him. Even though LoMo is a lefty, his 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers would have been the 4th best mark by a Twin with at least 75 PAs against a lefty last season. LoMo also had 0.365 xwOBA last season, which was tied with Kris Bryant and Jose Abrue. To me this suggest that his breakout 0.363 wOBA last season might not have been a fluke.

After coming up short in their quest to sign Yu Darvish, the Twins were forced to turn their focus toward other pitchers on the free agent and trade markets in order to fill out their rotation. They have since added two starting pitchers, by taking a flyer on Anibal Sanchez, and making a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Theses moves added just under $9M to the Twins 2018 payroll, bringing the total to roughly $118M. However, it is reasonable to assume that if the Twins were willing to offer Yu Darvish a $20M+ per year deal, they might have more money available to make another addition to the rotation.If the Twins were to make another move, many would assume it would be one of Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. According to a source close to Jon Heyman, he believes that Lance Lynn is a “pitcher of interest” for the Twins, and that he is favored by the Twins among the top three. The addition of Lance Lynn could be the move that takes the Twins rotation from one filled with question marks, to one with solidified depth. Right now, the Twins rotation to start the season would be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Alberto Mejia, and one of Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey or Anibal Sanchez. Adding Lynn would give the Twins five starters that they can trust in their rotation until Ervin Santana returns, and provide added depth if one of the other starters goes down with an injury during the season. Lance Lynn had a strong performance in 2017, posting a 3.43 ERA (4.75 xFIP) over 186.1 innings, after coming back from Tommy John surgery. However, the inflated xFIP, along with a career low .244 BABIP last season cause some hesitation in thinking that Lynn will be able to replicate those numbers again in 2018. Another area of concern for Lance Lynn is his fastball velocity. Lynn is a pitcher who relies heavily on his four-seam, two-seam and cut fastballs, and last year he saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 92.4 MPH it was at in 2015, before his Tommy John surgery, down to 91.3 MPH. A 1.1 MPH drop may not sound like a lot, but when a pitcher is already throwing in the low 90’s every MPH is critical, and if that number were to drop any lower it could be detrimental for Lynn. There is one bright spot for Lynn coming off of 2017, and that was his 0.304 xwOBA. This ranked 45th amongst the 118 pitchers who threw at least 2,000 pitches last season. This suggests that Lynn was a slightly above average starting pitcher last season, and backs up his 3.43 ERA a lot better than his other peripheral metrics do. So, if the Twins really do have aspirations of signing Lance Lynn, what would it take to get him? At the beginning of the offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Lance Lynn would receive an offer of 4-years and $56M. Given the way the market has panned out this winter, it might be easy to assume that Lynn would receive an offer south of that mark. However, unlike Darvish, I don’t think there will be too big of a drop from this price, if there is one at all. A big reason for this being that earlier in the offseason Tyler Chatwood signed a 3-year $38M deal with the Cubs. Given that Chatwood was considered to be a step down from Lynn entering this offseason, it would be hard to believe that Lynn would accept a deal that is equal to or less than that of Chatwood’s. If this is the case, it doesn’t leave the Twins a lot of wiggle room with either years or dollars for them to come down from the 4-years and $56M projection. Additionally, Lance Lynn received a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. If the Twins were to sign Lynn they would have to give up their third highest pick in the 2018 First Year Player Draft (75th overall). Though, unlike previous years under the old CBA, the Twins would have had to give up their top unprotected pick (20th overall). So, by comparison, giving up the 75th pick in the draft for an established major league pitcher isn’t a terrible trade-off, but it is still a factor that the Twins front office will need to take into consideration before making an offer for Lynn. Personally, I would like to see the Twins add another piece to their rotation, but the addition of Lance Lynn, or Cobb and Arrieta for that matter, seems a bit risky to me. If they are able to swoop in and get Lynn at an absolute bargain, I think they should make the move, otherwise they might be better off staying put, and look to invest more money into free agency next offseason. Click here to view the article

After coming up short in their quest to sign Yu Darvish, the Twins were forced to turn their focus towards other pitchers on the free agent and trade markets in order to fill out their rotation. They have since added two starting pitchers, by taking a flyer on Anibal Sanchez, and making a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Theses moves added just under $9M to the Twins 2018 payroll, bringing the total to roughly $118M. However, it would be reasonable to assume that if the Twins were willing to offer Yu Darvish a $20M+ per year deal, they might have more money available to make another addition to the rotation. If the Twins were to make another move, many would assume it would be one of Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. According to a source close to Jon Heyman, he believes that Lance Lynn is a “pitcher of interest” for the Twins, and that he is favored by the Twins among the top three. An addition of Lance Lynn could be the move that takes the Twins rotation from one filled with question marks, to one with solidified depth. Right now, the Twins rotation to start the season would be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Alberto Mejia, and one of Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey or Anibal Sanchez. Adding Lynn would give the Twins five starters that they can trust in their rotation until Ervin Santana returns, and provide added depth if one of the other starters goes down with an injury during the season. Lance Lynn had a strong performance in 2017, posting a 3.43 ERA (4.75 xFIP) over 186.1 innings, after coming back from Tommy John surgery. However, the inflated xFIP, along with a career low .244 BABIP last season cause some hesitation in thinking that Lynn will be able to replicate those numbers again in 2018. Another area of concern for Lance Lynn is his fastball velocity. Lynn is a pitcher that relies heavily on his four-seam, two-seam and cut fastballs, and last year he saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 92.4 MPH it was at in 2015, before his Tommy John surgery, down to 91.3 MPH. A 1.1 MPH drop may not sound like a lot, but when a pitcher is already throwing in the low 90’s every MPH is critical, and if that number were to drop any lower it could be detrimental for Lynn. There is one bright spot for Lynn coming off of 2017, and that was his 0.304 xwOBA. This ranked 45th amongst the 118 pitchers who threw at least 2,000 pitches last season. This suggests that Lynn was a slightly above average starting pitcher last season, and backs up his 3.43 ERA a lot better than his other peripheral metrics do. So, if the Twins really do have aspirations of signing Lance Lynn, what would it take to get him? At the beginning of the offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Lance Lynn would receive an offer of 4-years and $56M. Given the way the market has panned out this winter, it might be easy to assume that Lynn would receive an offer south of that mark. However, unlike Darvish, I don’t think there will be too big of a drop from this price, if there is one at all. A big reason for this being that earlier the offseason Tyler Chatwood signed a 3-year $38M deal with the Cubs. Given that Chatwood was considered to be a step down from Lynn entering this offseason, it would be hard to believe that Lynn would accept a deal that is equal to or less than that of Chatwood’s. If this is the case, it doesn’t leave the Twins a lot of wiggle room with either years of dollars, for them to come down from the 4-years and $56M projection. Additionally, Lance Lynn received a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, if the Twins were to sign Lynn they would have to give up their 3rd highest pick in the 2018 First Year Player Draft (75th overall). Though, unlike previous years under the old CBA, the Twins would have had to give up their top unprotected pick (20th overall). So, by comparison, giving up the 75th pick in the draft for an established major league pitcher isn’t a terrible trade-off, but it is still a factor that the Twins front office will need to take into consideration before making an offer for Lynn. Personally, I would like to see the Twins add another piece to their rotation, but an addition of Lance Lynn, or Cobb and Arrieta for that matter, seems a bit risky to me. If they are able to swoop in and get Lynn at an absolute bargain, I think they should make the move, otherwise they might be better off staying put, and look to invest more money into free agency next offseason.

I would maybe take a chance on LoMo or Dickerson if they were really cheap, but I'll take a hard pass on Reynolds or Bautista.