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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    If it comes down to these two at any point... I'll give you thirteen million and two hundred guesses. (If you don't get it right, I'll give you another thirteen million two hundred.)
  2. jkcarew
    Kind of irrelevant, even if true, right? It's more about a reasonable expectation of WAR (or whatever) from 2019 - 2022, among other factors like roster construction. Look, I love Dozier. And I'd guess his career tail...at least offensively...won't be particularly steep. But, it seems reasonable to me for the Twins to want to see how 2018 plays out before they decide/commit on Dozier. Equally reasonable, IMO, for Dozier to decide to commit to going through the FA process. We'll see what happens.
  3. jkcarew
    It remains to be seen whether the Twins or Lynn did the misreading. And, while I would expect the Twins to be 'aware' of what Lynn wanted, I would almost never expect a club to match that with their initial offer. Especially, given how the market has been this off-season. It sounds like Lynn made the decision to not engage and negotiate based on the Twins initial offer. Time will tell how much of a 'low ball' that offer was.
  4. jkcarew
    Just because he's smaller doesn't mean he's more athletic. We'll find out.
  5. jkcarew
    I think this is a good point. I seem to recall that when Dozier was moved off of SS, the primary issue was range, not arm. Someone can confirm or deny. If that's the case, and the Twins find themselves with an opportunity to sign Dozier, but happen to love Gordon, Dozier's bat plays at 3rd (at least it has for the last few years).
  6. jkcarew
    Between now and next off-season (or the trade deadline) there will be a thousand posts/articles on Dozier's situation, along with 10 thousand interview questions about it. Both the writers and Brian will contradict themselves and each other countlessly. He's just a guy being advised by his agent and trying not to piss everyone off in the interim...like 99% of the others that have gone through this. The interesting thing to me...if you're thinking about signing Dozier, then you should be thinking about trading Gordon, right? Why would you make a bench player out of a 5th over-all draft pick that is still a top 100 prospect? You'd want to get something of more value than a utility infielder while you still had the change. So, IMO, the tricky part for the Twins will be getting decent value out of Gordon if they find themselves spending the money to keep Dozier. (This assumes that the Twins have already decided that Gordon is not an every-day MLB SS.)
  7. jkcarew
    True. Reputation matters...and in that regard, not many around the league would consider Santana an ace, even an the heals of his 2017 performance. And Jack Morris started game 1 of the ALCS and of the WS...not Kevin Tapani
  8. jkcarew
    You need good pitchers to get there. Once in the post-season, and offense can carry you...it's been done. But, I'll still take the 'ace'. BTW...Ervin Santana's ERA+ last year: better than Morris's in '91 (also, Morris had been considerably below-average the 3 previous seasons); way better than Blyleven's in '87; not nearly as good as Frank Viola in '87; not as good as Kevin Tapani's in '91.
  9. jkcarew
    But whose at-bats would Vargas's additional at-bats have come from? Those were his 23, 24, and 25 age seasons. There would have been rioting in the streets if those at-bats would have come from Mauer's at first. And as far as DH goes, you really don't want to stunt a young players defensive development that early by making him a full-time DH (and it's not like he was raking)...not to mention the fact that you were already violating that axiom by giving a lot of DH at-bats to Sano during those years. IMO, you can call it a failure of roster management, but it wasn't a failure of neglectful development, unless the argument is that they should have simply given him more AAA at-bats (which is what they ended up doing last year). I hope they trade/cut him as soon as possible for his sake. I'd be pretty surprised if it were a trade.
  10. jkcarew
    Fair enough. That makes sense when looked through the lens of how flipping them would be viewed by Polanco, the still-developing incumbent. So instead, I'll be slightly disappointed that Gordon was playing 2B while Gregorio Petit was playing SS. Anyway, we'll get the more definitive view over the first 20 games or so for Rochester...because that roster will have at least one experienced SS on it. Meanwhile his small number of AB's have been very encouraging IMO.
  11. jkcarew
    Slightly disappointing to see Gordon playing second in spring training...especially at the same time Polanco is at short. Seems like an early indication that they feel Polanco's defensive ceiling at SS is better than Gordon's. Given Polanco's limitations, I'd take that as a nail in the coffin in terms of hopes that Gordon will be a SS. Having said that, the small number of at-bats I've seen are very encouraging, and he may have the potential to be above average defensively at second (one would think given his overall athleticism?)
  12. jkcarew
    Nothing to see here. I would have questioned everything I thought I knew about Dozier as a competitor if he had decided to forgo free agency. I love him based on his offensive production and based on the way he plays. But, based on our organizational depth, I wouldn't expect the Twins to be super aggressive trying to sign him. Mauer is a completely different personality and in a completely different situation. I fully expect his approach to free agency to be different than Dozier's.
  13. jkcarew
    I've read this a few times here. And, no. He can't. There is no evidence to suggest the Twins would even consider it in an abolute emergency. He has exactly zero appearances in the OF over the last two seasons, and a total of 2 starts the year before that. 2012 was the last time a MLB team saw fit to give him even as many OF starts as Grossman had last year. Escobar would play OF (and has) before they would move Morrison out there.
  14. jkcarew
    I would guess that north of 80% of the starts for the 4th outfielder (assuming Kepler/Rosario are healthy) will come against left-handed starters. That would argue for Grossman over Granite. Although interestingly, Granite has a bit of a history of reverse splits. Still, I think the Twins will opt for Grossman's bat in this scenario. If there are injuries, then I think you look for Granite to be the replacement 'every-day' 3rd outfielder. Granite plays every day at Rochester, then if/when there is an OF injury with the big club, he gets called up. I think that will be the start-of-the-year plan. Kepler needs to make a significant step forward against left-handed pitching, or he will lose value for the Twins, including trade value.
  15. jkcarew
    Tip of the hat.
  16. jkcarew
    Absolutely is. Eroded his performance by the time he was in his late 20's, and prematurely ended his career. As I remember, though, with Hrbek the media tended to laugh it off...just a good 'ole boy that wants to mix some bowling and fishing in with his baseball...'one of us', and all that. Interesting. Having said that, I would like to see Sano carrying less weight. Increase the odds that he can be a serviceable 3rd baseman (which absolutely would help the Twins)...and even if not, would prolong the back-end of his career.
  17. jkcarew
    I've decided that, until they actually prove otherwise, I choose to believe our number 3 can play major league shortstop and our number 2 will be a starter. Makes me happier.
  18. jkcarew
    We have an obvious offensive comp for Gordon, that being Polanco who played with the same teams at the same age for his 19, 20, and 21 years...and just two years in front of Gordon. Year 19 (Cedar Rapids) Polanco 308/362/452 Gordon 277/336/360 Year 20 (Fort Myers) Polanco 291/364/415 Gordon 291/335/386 Year 21 (Chattanooga) Polanco 289/346/393 Gordon 270/341/408 Against right-handed pitching, Gordon looks better. It comes down to defense, and finding a bit of an answer against left-handed pitching. If he can play a solid major-league SS...(pretty huge divergence of opinion among the experts here)...and he can OPS+ 100(ish) which seems possible, that is a very valuable player. With regard to where he ranks...it's hard for some...me included...to wrap my head around a high school kid taken number 5 overall that ends up being a high floor, relatively low ceiling prospect. It's usually the other way around when a high-school kid is taken that high. But it could work out. This year is huge, obviously.
  19. jkcarew
    Yep. I think most (including me) that feel like Palacios is being under-valued in some of the reaction, still would have made the same 'choice' regarding which of the four to trade for Odorizzi...and absolutely would have pulled the trigger on this deal. Whether we end up being right about that...whether it end's up being a good trade...I'll tell you in three years
  20. jkcarew
    It was 11 HR is 276 plate appearances. Sorry.
  21. jkcarew
    I agree. PART of the reason Palacios is ranked significantly behind our other three SS prospects is simply that one of those was a number 5 overall draft pick, one a $4 million Dominican bonus baby, and the other a number 1 overall pick. The 13 HR in under 300 PA last year at Cedar Rapids was a bit of an eye-opener...and, if nothing else, the trade seems to validate that MLB teams project Palacios as a SS...which is something we don't necessarily know is the case with all three of our other top SS prospects. Having said that, I agree this is a trade you make every time you get a chance. A position of organizational depth for someone that has a reasonable chance to make the major-league club a little better.
  22. jkcarew
    Honestly, even before the disappointing (so far) off-season, I was more excited about 2019 than 2018...and more excited about 2020 than 2019. And the FO is acting as if they felt the same. I'm not saying that I'd be willing to defend what has transpired so far. This certainly has rattled the faith that the FO would take advantage of any future "whatever it takes" moments. Still, I like the core, the on-the-verge prospects, and I'm thinking this window is not going to slam shut on us.
  23. jkcarew
    The players are bigger and the modern ballparks are smaller...so, I don't see the trend for trying to hit the ball in the air reversing any time soon. I guess, maybe some type of pitch or delivery will prove to be materially successful in mitigating launch in the future and cause a shift? What is smart, does not necessarily make for more interesting baseball, though. Diversity of swings and styles of play are dying. Everyone has the same swing, and fewer and fewer seem capable of adapting it if the game situation simply calls for putting the ball in play. And the strike-out rates, which this evolution contributes to, are already at absurd levels.
  24. jkcarew
    Kirby Puckett called...with his two world championships, his WS MVP, his 6 gold gloves, and his seven seasons with top-7 finishes in MVP voting... He said he wished he had taken more walks.
  25. jkcarew
    This. I'd be interested to hear from those that have seen both, what separates these two by such a seemingly wide margin in prospect rankings. They both had very similar success as 18-year-olds at Elizabethton. Since then, it took Palacios a little more than a year to figure out low A, but he continues to show promise. Is Javier's upside offensively just that much better? Or is it defense? Or mostly just the $4 million?
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